Chief Delphi - Michigan District Event Difficulty

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Michigan District Event Difficulty

I've been working on a bunch of scouting stuff and have some cool numbers about each of the Michigan events.

Code:

                Week        N         Total Score        Avg Score        Top 8 Score        Top 24 Score

MSC                7        102        3927.9                38.5                72.7                59.3

West Michigan        4        40        1105.1                27.6                55.2                36.9

Howell                1        41        1035.8                25.3                47.2                34.1

Waterford        2        42        1057.3                25.2                51.9                35.3

Bedford                6        40        989.8                24.7                57.5                34.0

Livonia                5        40        974.5                24.4                52.7                32.5

Woodhaven        3        40        890.2                22.3                51.2                29.7

Kentwood        2        40        881.6                22.0                43.9                28.4

Traverse City        3        41        867.8                21.2                45.7                28.3

Southfield        1        40        839.5                21.0                47.2                28.2

St Joseph        4        42        844.3                20.1                46.1                27.4

Center Line        5        42        837.7                19.9                38.5                26.9

Kettering        2        41        807.0                19.7                44.1                26.2

Troy                6        40        785.8                19.6                43.5                25.5

Midland                4        42        809.1                19.3                40.1                25.8

Escanaba        5        36        655.6                18.2                32.6                21.8

Standish        1        40        691.8                17.3                33.9                21.6

Gull Lake        3        40        679.8                17.0                33.2                22.1

Lansing                6        41        680.7                16.6                30.4                21.0

All of the "Scores" are predictions of how many "Points" a team should get, using a scoring method very similar to Fantasy FIRST's Scoring method (also similar to the district scoring method) and past competition results. This is meant as more of a prediction of overall team performance and competitiveness than actual district point results. "Top 8 Score" and "Top 24 Score" are the average predicted points for the top 8 or 24 teams. For MSC, this assumes that the top 102 teams make it and that they are just as successful there as at a district event. These are obviously false assumptions for predicting actual scores, but should show the difficulty of MSC pretty accurately. The prediction assumes that not only will teams do as well as they have done in past years, but that they will continue to get better or worse as they have in the past three. Over entire competitions, it should be a pretty accurate reading of competition, but probably not with individual teams.

Here are the predictions for top 8 at each event:

Code:

Week 1                                                                                

Southfield                                        Howell                                                Standish                

33 Killer Bees                        77.7                862 Lightning Robotics                66.3                503 Frog Force                48.7

1023 Bedford Express                72.7                1918 NC GEARS                        56.0                3602 RoboMos                45.0

548 Robostangs                        54.7                107 Team R.O.B.O.T.I.C.S.        49.2                5193 Pantheon                41.0

573 Mech Warriors                41.2                494 Martians                        46.8                1025 IMPIS                31.0

910 The Foley Freeze                37.5                2771 Code Red Robotics                 43.8                1243 Dragons                28.7

3604 Goon Squad                        32.3                3322 Eagle Imperium                39.0                5166 Fabricators                26.0

2960 automation nation                31.2                245 Adambots                        38.7                5231 Radical Jays        26.0

1701 RoboCubs                        30.3                141 WO-BOT                        37.5                5247 Red Devils                25.0

                                                                                

Week 2                                                                                

Waterford                                        Kentwood                                        Kettering                

1718 The Fighting Pi                78.8                2054 Tech Vikes                        65.5                2337 EngiNERDs                72.0

67 The HOT Team                        72.0                4967 That ONE Team                 48.0                314 The Megatron Oracles        61.8

2137 TORC                        60.3                2959 Robotarians                47.7                1711 Raptors                49.8

503 Frog Force                        48.7                3234 Red Arrows                        40.2                70 More Martians                47.7

3656 Dreadbots                        39.8                857 Superior Roboworks                39.8                1684 Chimeras                36.3

4819 Flat Mountain Mechanics        39.8                85 B.O.B. (Built on Brains)        37.5                1243 Dragons                28.7

217 ThunderChickens                38.5                2767 Stryke Force                36.8                2604 Metal and Soul        28.5

3098 The Captains                37.0                4956 White Lake Robotics        36.0                3534 House of Cards        27.8

                                                                                

Week 3                                                                                

Woodhaven                                        Gull Lake                                        Traverse City                

27 Team RUSH                        75.8                3641 The Flying Toasters        54.2                862 Lightning Robotics        66.3

1023 Bedford Express                72.7                2834 Bionic Black Hawks                46.8                2474 Excel                50.2

469 Las Guerrillas                66.2                3656 Dreadbots                        39.8                1711 Raptors                49.8

3539 Byting Bulldogs                54.0                5162 The Big Red Theory                28.0                3618 Petoskey Paladins        44.5

3322 Eagle Imperium                39.0                5248 Robo-Saxons                27.0                51 The Wings of Fire        41.0

280 TnT                                36.5                830 The RatPack                        24.2                245 Adambots                38.7

123 Team - Cosmos                33.2                1504 Desperate Penguins                23.8                3688 Norsemen                38.0

815 Advanced Power                32.5                3658 Robo - Beavers                21.8                4391 BraveBots                36.8

                                                                                

Week 4                                                                                

Midland                                                St. Joseph                                        West Michigan                

314 The Megatron Oracles        61.8                469 Las Guerrillas                66.2                1718 The Fighting Pi        78.8

3618 Petoskey Paladins                44.5                2474 Excel                        50.2                2054 Tech Vikes                65.5

5193 Pantheon                        41.0                2959 Robotarians                47.7                2137 TORC                60.3

4819 Flat Mountain Mechanics        39.8                70 More Martians                47.7                1918 NC GEARS                56.0

910 The Foley Freeze                37.5                494 Martians                        46.8                107 Team R.O.B.O.T.I.C.S        49.2

2619 The Charge                        34.2                3688 Norsemen                        38.0                4967 That ONE Team        48.0

302 The Dragons                        31.2                2767 Stryke Force                36.8                2771 Code Red Robotics        43.8

4988 Yooper Troopers                31.0                3620 Average Joes                35.8                3234 Red Arrows                40.2

                                                                                

Week 5                                                                                

Center Line                                        Escanaba                                        Livonia                

2834 Bionic Black Hawks                46.8                3602 RoboMos                        45.0                27 Team RUSH                75.8

68 Truck Town Thunder                46.5                857 Superior Roboworks                39.8                67 The HOT Team                72.0

573 Mech Warriors                41.2                4391 BraveBots                        36.8                548 Robostangs                54.7

3098 The Captains                37.0                2586 Copper Bots                31.3                3641 The Flying Toasters        54.2

4384 Benzene Bots                35.8                74 Team C.H.A.O.S.                31.0                503 Frog Force                48.7

2851 Crevolution                35.5                1596 The Instigators                28.7                51 The Wings of Fire        41.0

123 Team - Cosmos                33.2                66 The Flyers                        24.8                217 ThunderChickens        38.5

1189 The Gearheads                32.2                1322 GRAYT                        23.5                280 TnT                        36.5

                                                                                

Week 6                                        

Lansing                                                Troy                                                Bedford        

68 Truck Town Thunder                46.5                33 Killer Bees                        77.7                1023 Bedford Express        72.7

1684 Chimeras                        36.3                2337 EngiNERDs                        72.0                862 Lightning Robotics        66.3

308 The Monsters                30.5                3539 Byting Bulldogs                54.0                469 Las Guerrillas        66.2

858 Demons                        29.7                4130 The Blue Devils                36.2                2137 TORC                60.3

5084 Password                        26.0                5053 Lakers                        29.0                548 Robostangs                54.7

3667 Mecanum Knights                25.8                3534 House of Cards                27.8                3641 The Flying Toasters        54.2

4568 Robot Commander                24.8                226 Hammerheads                        26.3                2834 Bionic Black Hawks        46.8

5282 Railroaders                24.0                3548 RoboRavens 2                24.8                3322 Eagle Imperium        39.0

                                                                                

Week 7, MSC                                                                                

1718 The Fighting Pi                78.8                2054 Tech Vikes                        65.5                1711 Raptors                49.8

33 Killer Bees                        77.7                314 The Megatron Oracles        61.8                107 Team R.O.B.O.T.I.C.S        49.2

27 Team RUSH                        75.8                2137 TORC                        60.3                503 Frog Force                48.7

1023 Bedford Express                72.7                1918 NC GEARS                        56.0                4967 That ONE Team        48.0

67 The HOT Team                        72.0                548 Robostangs                        54.7                70 More Martians                47.7

2337 EngiNERDs                        72.0                3641 The Flying Toasters        54.2                2959 Robotarians                47.7

862 Lightning Robotics                66.3                3539 Byting Bulldogs                54.0                494 Martians                46.8

469 Las Guerrillas                66.2                2474 Excel                        50.2                2834 Bionic Black Hawks        46.8

This is also attached in spreadsheet form, and I have more detailed spreadsheets for each competition if anyone wants to see them. These numbers are just speculation and a fun way for me to spend AP Computer Science, take them with many grains of salt. Feel free to ask questions.

Re: Michigan District Event Difficulty

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bryce Paputa (Post 1435296)

Week 6
Troy
469 Las Guerrillas
Bedford
469 Las Guerrillas

Just Bedford, I hope - otherwise, it's gonna be a lot of driving :yikes:

Re: Michigan District Event Difficulty

I'd love to have the detail on Howell and Woodhaven! What's the easiest way for me to get it?

Re: Michigan District Event Difficulty

<3 for the info! gonna be so much fun!
Btw how did we already get MSC teams?
edit: Never mind about that Michigan States :)

Re: Michigan District Event Difficulty

Seeing my team ranked 3rd in both of our districts is pretty exciting.

This year, we are doing something a bit different (again). We will see how it goes!
Hint: we're using multiple timing belts again... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TQY3FD4p6cA

Re: Michigan District Event Difficulty

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nyxyxylyth (Post 1435330)

Just Bedford, I hope - otherwise, it's gonna be a lot of driving :yikes:

Oops? Not sure how that happened. It's fixed now, but were you registered for Troy earlier in the registration season?

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrRiedemanJACC (Post 1435430)

I'd love to have the detail on Howell and Woodhaven! What's the easiest way for me to get it?

I have them attached here (Woodhaven is mifla, Howell is mihow). Anyone can feel free to ask for others. The numbers in the brackets show the teams' performance at each competition like [2014a, 2014b], [2013a, 2013b, 2013c], [2012a, 2012b]. The final prediction is then ((1.5 * average of 2014 competitions) + (1 * average of 2013 competitions) + (.5 * average of 2012 competitions)) / 3, which also happens to be equal to (2014 average + average improvement each year from 2012 to 2014).

As a side note, does anyone know why Woodhaven's event code is mifla? Why not something like miwdh, miwhv, miwhn, mibrn, mibrt, or something else related to Woodhaven HS or it's city?

Re: Michigan District Event Difficulty

The reason why Woodhaven is mifla is because the mailing address of Woodhaven High School is Flat Rock (it's in our 'backyard'). Pretty confusing as our district actually is Woodhaven and Brownstown...

Re: Michigan District Event Difficulty

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jaywalker1711 (Post 1435470)

Seeing my team ranked 3rd in both of our districts is pretty exciting.

Also encouraging to see ourselves at 2nd and 5th. Too bad we won't be seeing you in TC this year.

Re: Michigan District Event Difficulty

Quote:

Originally Posted by Christopher149 (Post 1435498)

Also encouraging to see ourselves at 2nd and 5th. Too bad we won't be seeing you in TC this year.

That is too bad, we'll miss you guys!

It's nice to see one of my teams actually emerging as a competitor now. Even though it says 8th at Troy I'll take it

Re: Michigan District Event Difficulty

Quote:

Originally Posted by Christopher149 (Post 1435498)

Also encouraging to see ourselves at 2nd and 5th. Too bad we won't be seeing you in TC this year.

I'm happy to see 857 ranked so high :) I'll be watching your progress this competitions season...hopefully I'll see you at MSC!

Re: Michigan District Event Difficulty

Can I see the Southfield and Troy districts?

Re: Michigan District Event Difficulty

Can't wait to compete with all you guys - good luck!

Re: Michigan District Event Difficulty

When are 3rd events going to be added for teams?
-Ronnie

Re: Michigan District Event Difficulty

First for Howell and Traverse City, above 469 for Bedford, and top 8 for States? Really? I'll take it =D

Re: Michigan District Event Difficulty

Quote:

Originally Posted by April_robo (Post 1447227)

Can I see the Southfield and Troy districts?

Here they are.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ronnie314 (Post 1447244)

When are 3rd events going to be added for teams?
-Ronnie

Dang, I thought I had waited until they were filled. You guys rank first at Lansing.

Re: Michigan District Event Difficulty

First time at Howell, Looking forward to it! :)

Re: Michigan District Event Difficulty

Fun with numbers from the two Week 1 events posted. Assuming this is 100% accurate, alliances always pick best robot available (SCOUTING IS IMPORTANT), and teams don't interfere with each other.

Howell:
Alliance: Captain, First pick, second pick: combined score
1: 862, 1918, 3536: 142.2
2: 107, 494, 4327: 116.3
3: 2771, 3322, 3658: 104.7
4: 245, 141, 1504: 100
5: 4956, 4384, 830: 96
6: 4362, 1189 66: 91.8
7: 4003, 302, 5114: 87.7
8: 3572, 4325, 4004: 80

Southfield:
Alliance: Captain, First pick, second pick: combined score
1: 33, 1023, 5014: 163.3
2: 548 573, 5695: 110.8
3: 910, 3604, 5467: 84.8
4: 2960, 1701, 5673: 76.5
5: 453, 3667, 5642: 68.3
6: 3548, 94, 5619: 63.7
7: 3547,2673, 5577: 57.5
8: 5167, 835, 3302: 50.7

Re: Michigan District Event Difficulty

Quote:

Originally Posted by FIMAlumni (Post 1448784)

Speculation like this is always interesting, but the numbers include points for awards like chairman's and dean's list. Stuff like that might have a tiny influence on picks, but no where as big as the score weights it. IIRC, The scoring system gives (50/number of district events attended) for winning chairman's, which puts it approximately equal to winning the event as first seed. It's the same system that fantasy first uses, you can look at the rules in that forum for more details.

Re: Michigan District Event Difficulty

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bryce Paputa (Post 1448819)

Thanks for the input, of course this is all just fun speculation. If the numbers matched up perfectly we should just crown the state champions now. Side note, winning awards like chairman's and dean's list will help a team get picked. Brand recognition and wow factors do influence teams picking.

Re: Michigan District Event Difficulty

Quote:

Originally Posted by SeanKwobot141 (Post 1447588)

First time at Howell, Looking forward to it! :)

Howell is a good event. Nice layout, and a roomy arena. Competed there last year, and will be returning this year as well. But eeeeeeeeeewwwwww; week 1...

See you there!

Re: Michigan District Event Difficulty

chairman's and dean's list don't enter into my scouting...as they have little to do with robot performance directly , there are better metrics

Re: Michigan District Event Difficulty

Chairman's and Dean's have far reaching impacts upon every aspect of robotics , not only within sponsorships and community. Please never mistake the fact that while some teams maybe a chairman's team to be one of lesser quality.
In reality, these are hallmarks for successful teams because they have a history of doing things right, which is why they are "better" over the years.

Re: Michigan District Event Difficulty

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boltman (Post 1449116)

chairman's and dean's list don't enter into my scouting...as they have little to do with robot performance directly , there are better metrics

I never meant to imply that Chairman's and dean's list enter onto your scouting sheets. Winning the big awards does however make your team stand out from the crowd. If your robot is about as good 5-6 other robots, these awards as well as loud cheering sections, bright shirts, flashy LED lights, funny costumes, ect. all help your team stand out from the crowd. Best example of bright shirts in Michigan are the Thunder Chickens. Granted this team rarely needs help being recognized but it certainly doesn't hurt. I'm not saying these awards are going to suddenly move you up 20 picks, but it could help 1-3 picks.

Re: Michigan District Event Difficulty

Quote:

Originally Posted by FIMAlumni (Post 1449127)

Agreed..however this thread is on "Event Difficulty" and ranking relative team strength and ranking "best robots"... all I am saying is that Deans and Chairman's does not have a direct effect and may very well skew the choice based on those factors in the wrong direction when ranking "robot/driver strength" any one particular year versus overall "Team strength/community involvement/ popularity". There are better metrics to use that aren't as subjective. IMO. That's the thing with statistics make sure your main metrics are not subjective. I should know I had plenty of statistics classes to obtain my degree and that's the way statistics work primarily. Its math.

Re: Michigan District Event Difficulty

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boltman (Post 1449116)

chairman's and dean's list don't enter into my scouting...as they have little to do with robot performance directly , there are better metrics

Really! I find this interesting Why Deans list?

Re: Michigan District Event Difficulty

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Originally Posted by SeanKwobot141 (Post 1449163)

Really! I find this interesting Why Deans list?

Deans List: Celebrates outstanding student leaders whose passion for and effectiveness at attaining FIRST ideals is exemplary

How does that directly affect Robot/driver strength in any particular match or year?

Its a great accomplishment but not much of a factor in specific robot/drive team performance. I chose not to use those to scout unless its an absolute TIE. then these factors could help break a tie. But then again there are other more relevant metrics for performance on field IMO.

Re: Michigan District Event Difficulty

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boltman (Post 1449137)

There are two different types of difficulty, difficulty in qualifications and eliminations, and difficulty for winning awards. These numbers should be a roughly equal combination of the two. They're definitely related to each other, but not strongly enough to use for picking. Our scouting process this year is extremely objective, but some important factors are very hard to objectivise. We haven't completely decided how to include these factors, but they will be included. These factors aren't chairman's success or other award history though, more like how well their robot complements our skills and how prepared they are.

Re: Michigan District Event Difficulty

Fine work Bryce; thanks for sharing!

Re: Michigan District Event Difficulty

Just a bit of warning from 3536. We had a real tough time with field connections day one with our bot. 5 matches of dumps and drops from field communication. We found out the hard way it had to do with our use of the smart dashboard and data logging. We suggest any team using it to turn it off if possible when going to field. We followed the wpi templates and it made us backlog on start up and drop! It doesn't show up in practice mode. FTA was awesome helping us find it but we suffered with a great robot until it was found. Hence a great final day when the robot was able to do what it was designed to do. Thankfully scouts on our alliance did their homework and found us in the crowd of numbers. Thanks to our partners we had a great day! Good luck everyone.