Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 

It'll heavily vary based on the regional itself and the level of "competition" there. In this game, there is no real defense, and thus better robots will likely lead more directly to higher average scores than in years past. I'd guess anywhere in the 80- 100 range, but for week one and especially the weaker completions, they may be on the low end of that.

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 

1) Building the elevator would not have been the hardest part of this game even without COTS.

2) Even if you think Co-op stacks/sets are easy to get, the act of placing the scoring objects is not the hardest part of this maneuver. It's both alliances understanding pre-planning and both alliances able to execute this.

3) Damage by opponents has been replaced with damage by partners and/or falling scoring objects. The COTS factor you mentioned in #1 rears its ugly head here. Even smart teams are running 2 speed ballshifters. High speed impacts into a frame w/o bumpers is not fun. In terms of game piece weight, the cans are the heaviest and the totes are the third heaviest scoring objects in the modern era. The second heaviest object, the tetra, were not scored on precarious goals on the field, but on two bumps that cross over half the field.

4) It is easy to practice, but given the difficulty of the game I've been trying to describe, and weather in some places, how much time did WEEK 1 teams get to practice, even for the select group with a practice machine?

5) Ri3D may be the downfall of some teams. How many machines adequately covered how to acquire totes from the landfill or station and adequately communicated to people who use those resources that that is such a priority?

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 

I mistakenly made this poll end a week later than I had intended to. I plan to post another poll Saturday night along with a quick analysis of how well Chief Delphi was able to predict scoring and how that ability to predict changes over the season. The level of discussion and widely varying votes have piqued my interest. Unfortunately, due to the nature of the poll I was unable to do anything meaningful statistically with the data. Next week's poll will have a more realistic minimum and will not include any values that aren't numerical. Thanks to everyone who voted. In case anyone is interested, here's a slightly prettier chart of the data provided. I find it funny how closely it resembles a normal curve up until the very end of the chart.

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 

The end of the chart isn't a single category of 10 points, it's everyone who thinks 140 and above. That will inherently skew it.

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 

I understand, I commented on that in my post.

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 

60.

Keep in mind no one plays at full strength on match 1 of week 1, I expect the average #1 seed to be as good as a team that can auto and co-op consistently, even if they do nothing else.

Some regionals won't have this robot, some teams with this robot won't be consistent every match, but the somewhat fluctuating nature of extra can points somewhat cancels this out.

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 

60 is about right IMHO. Remember it's an average not a median. This game is hard.

-Nick

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 

Starting to agree around 60-70. Even with a strong regional like Dallas where at least one team will probably be able to consistently put up very high points, it isn't really going to affect the average number 1 seed score across all regionals that much.

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 

Ok, I'm puzzed. I know there's no mathematical validity in the musings below, but trying to make sense of these polls is failing me.

At the How many points do you think your robot could score individually? thread, the median answer is at the very high end of the 61-70 range, so the median responder expects to score about 70 points. (The mean isn't far off, though it's difficult to evaluate with the last, indeterminate value.)

On this poll, the median responder expects the average regional top seed to be 100. Assuming the populations of the two polls are similar, this raises the question:

Does a typical responder

• expect alliance partners to only average 15 points each, and to be top seed
• expect even worse performance from partners
• change expectations that much in four days
• something else?

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 

I would wager that the typical respondent here has an above-average robot, and likely does expect their alliance partners to be much worse than them. Many are also not participating in Week 1. The previous poll could also be construed as asking about potential maximum performance, not necessarily performance in the first event.

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 

I would be very surprised if average alliance partners at a week 1 regional averaged 15 points each. That's 7-8 scored totes. Being that most alliance partners won't have a point scoring autonomous, or be able to make more than one stack of totes, I'd feel very confident saying the average robot will score 15 or less points in an average match.

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 

It seems people like to talk about the lack of ability from "the average team". They believe that "most teams" (people that aren't them) can't really do anything, and will fall over, get stuck on noodles, get in the way, knock their own stack over, and won't figure out how to pick up totes. Remember, we haven't seen real competition yet, and we've actually underestimated teams in the past.

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 

Something else. The linked question asks how much your robot could score individually in ideal conditions. A team's average contribution in actual match conditions is most probably lower than their response to that poll, which is also likely to have been a bit optimistic on average. They may also assume that the median robot at an event may not score as well as the typical team that would respond to a poll on CD. Also, it's week 1, so scores are typically lower, and many respondents to the original poll may not be competing this week or may have been estimating their ideal performance during the entire season (second event improvement).

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 

We have to remember we are talking #1 seed here. I feel that, even though it is week 1, the top teams will still preform at a high level. I think that OPR of top teams will be more prevalent in week one than score average because of the lower level of play that comes with week one events. (ie. The top teams will really stand out early in the year.)

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 

Statistics to the rescue!

We have the data right here, and through a bit of math, we can sort of get an idea of where the real average score will fall according to those polled. I'll use a 95% confidence interval for this, just to keep things standard.

First are the assumptions. We appear to have independence, as I really doubt anyone who voted secretly collaborated with someone else just for a poll, but because opinions were expressed below and that may have affected people's argument, I'll proceed with caution. As for the sample being random, it's far from perfect, but it's close enough. The people voting here are cognizant of what teams will be competing, and are generally good at taking educated guesses. However, this really can't easily extend into the general community's opinion, as people posting on this site are much more likely to be from better, more established teams than the weaker ones. Again, this is a reason to proceed with caution when analyzing the data above.

Also, this poll wasn't purely quantitative, as an potion for more than 140 was given. For this number, I estimated the average to be about 155 based on how normal curves behave, but again, this is a point where the real and hypothetical worlds don't mix well.

Just to give some reference...

The mean is 96.96 points per match.
The sample standard deviation is 30.12 points per match.

Assuming this model is an accurate representation of performance (HUGE leap here, even though we have assumptions to back it up a bit, this will likely be a large source of error), we get a 95% confidence interval of...
(93.59 , 100.33)

And there you have it. I am 95% confident that the true mean expectation of the highest qualifier, according to the Chief Delphi community who bothered to vote on this post and who may or may not have a good grasp on the reality of week 1 competitions, is between 93.59 and 100.3 points.

And that's why the real answer is, "We'll see." :rolleyes: