Chief Delphi

Chief Delphi (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/index.php)
-   Rules/Strategy (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=6)
-   -   Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showthread.php?t=135019)

eddie12390 22-02-2015 11:06

Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
Just for the sake of seeing how people think this game will go, what do you think the average score that will secure a number one seed will be for the first week of regionals? I'm curious, at this point I really have no clue how this game is going to play out or what a "good" team will be capable of.

Boltman 22-02-2015 11:23

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
100: Reasoning is level of other robots I've seen in videos etc there are going to be some great Teams capable of 100 each solo in perfect conditions in each regional but in events there are going to be many that struggle too . Keeping a ceiling on overall averages. Noodles will have an effect too.

I think in Week 0...60-70 was top for leading alliance. Expect week 1 to increase that somewhat and hit 100 average.

Wayne TenBrink 22-02-2015 13:00

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
I expect to see a meaningful difference between the "average score of the #1 seed" and the "average score needed to seed #1". I would not be surprised to see a 20+ point difference between the top bot at an event and the next best bot. Therefore, the average score needed to be #1 seed would be 1 point better than the #2 team, which I am guessing will be 80 points.

TDav540 22-02-2015 13:14

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
Keep in mind that the "average score" includes what other alliance members will be able to contribute. If we take a top level robot capable of scoring 60 points independently of other robots and combine it with two other robots, not only will the other robots contribute to the overall score (let's be probably a little pessimistic and say 10 points each), but they will also likely improve the other team's score by another 10 points. So then we're looking at about 90 points. I'll overshoot a little and say 100.

dellagd 22-02-2015 21:19

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
If we remember that this will be a teams average match score, including their partners and the possible coopertition, while it will probably vary a good bit from event to event, I think 100 is a safe number.

GeeTwo 23-02-2015 01:04

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
Robots with active pickups or semi-autonomous sensor-driven pickups should be able to get about 100 points by themselves, if their alliance partners don't knock over their stacks. I expect the top seed at most regional events to be well over 100 as a result. More importantly, I'm going to continue to drive our programmers to get our solo point total up around 100. If it works with my team, and I'm wrong about everyone else, this should mean a trip to the championship.

MrJohnston 23-02-2015 01:23

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
Well over 100.

There are quite a few robots that seem to be able to do a three-tote-stack in autonomous. I anticipate 2-5 at each event, depending on the event size and location. That's 20 points. All of these robots should be able to complete a 40 pt coopertition stack if the other side can place one tote on the step. That's 60 points. Now, if each of these robots can do one three-tote stack with an RC and nothing else in tele-op, it has scored 18 more for a total of 78. I believe that most of these bots will be able to do better than that - say two stacks of four with an RC. That's 108 points alone.

Now, I would like to think that these very good robots do not have partners that average zero points for themselves. Perhaps they average adding 20 points per robot to an alliance? So, we have a range of 118-148...

cmrnpizzo14 23-02-2015 09:35

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
I think about 80 sounds right for week one. Reasoning: 40 for coopertition + 20 for noodles + 20 for other points during the match. I'm assuming that noodle points or coopertition might fluctuate between matches but still net about 60 points. Then always apply my rule of thumb to round down when considering the average.

dodar 23-02-2015 10:03

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by cmrnpizzo14 (Post 1448645)
I think about 80 sounds right for week one. Reasoning: 40 for coopertition + 20 for noodles + 20 for other points during the match. I'm assuming that noodle points or coopertition might fluctuate between matches but still net about 60 points. Then always apply my rule of thumb to round down when considering the average.

So you are assuming the #1 from regionals/districts will average only 20 tote/bin/robot points from Auto and Tele-op through their qualification matches?

Mrcope9 23-02-2015 10:14

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
Still unsure, it really depends on the regional and who is in each alliance. With Dallas this weekend, I can see the traditional 148-118 alliance getting upwards of 140 points with Robowranglers stacking at the human load station and Robonauts clearing the landfill and snatching RCs. Will there be a performance like that at every regional?-probably not. We'll see, I know everyone is waiting to see this game played competitively for the first time.

Bongle 23-02-2015 10:16

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
If we go by the "predict your robot's scoring capability" thread, 10% of robots can score 150pts/match. So it'll take 150pts just to get into the top 4 at a 40-robot regional!


Realistically though:
I voted 120. Seemed like a reasonable number:
15ish for autonomous on average
25-30 pts for coopertition on average
2 reasonable-score, or 1.5 max-point stacks during teleop
A couple dozen extra points from their alliance-partner contributions

There'll be some regionals with much higher scoring, but a robot that _averages_ what I put above should do very very well.

Rangel 23-02-2015 10:38

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
I'm not quite as optimistic so I guessed 100. Although there is no defense this year to lower scores, it's still week 1. Most robots at this time won't be nearly as good as their unveils portray yet. I could see scoring being much slower than most think for week 1.

pandamonium 23-02-2015 10:51

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
I think that comparing Oregon to Dallas is unfair so I came up with individual estimates.

Dallas: 200
IE: 150
Howell: 95
South FL: 150
Lake Superior Regional: 100
Northern Lights Regional: 100
Palmetto: 100
Southfield: 125
Standish: 100
Granite State: 100
Oregon: 90
Auburn: 120
Southern Classic Regional: 120
Waterbury: 150
Indianapolis: 90
Hatboro-Horsham: 150

Jean Tenca 23-02-2015 14:13

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by pandamonium (Post 1448681)
I think that comparing Oregon to Dallas is unfair so I came up with individual estimates.

Dallas: 200
IE: 150
Howell: 95
South FL: 150
Lake Superior Regional: 100
Northern Lights Regional: 100
Palmetto: 100
Southfield: 125
Standish: 100
Granite State: 100
Oregon: 90
Auburn: 120
Southern Classic Regional: 120
Waterbury: 150
Indianapolis: 90
Hatboro-Horsham: 150

As Oregonians, we accept your challenge :D

Bryce2471 23-02-2015 14:38

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by pandamonium (Post 1448681)
I think that comparing Oregon to Dallas is unfair so I came up with individual estimates.

Dallas: 200
IE: 150
Howell: 95
South FL: 150
Lake Superior Regional: 100
Northern Lights Regional: 100
Palmetto: 100
Southfield: 125
Standish: 100
Granite State: 100
Oregon: 90
Auburn: 120
Southern Classic Regional: 120
Waterbury: 150
Indianapolis: 90
Hatboro-Horsham: 150

Quote:

Originally Posted by ScourgeDragon (Post 1448759)
As Oregonians, we accept your challenge :D

As do we. :D

(I think you might be surprised)

Sunshine 23-02-2015 15:10

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
I think that most are under estimating the scoring potential. I consider us as an average team and feel comfortable sayin we will get 80 points alone. Autonomous works well and cooperation points happen and we would be above the 100 mark by ourselves.

Kevin Leonard 23-02-2015 15:16

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sunshine (Post 1448790)
I think that most are under estimating the scoring potential. I consider us as an average team and feel comfortable sayin we will get 80 points alone. Autonomous works well and cooperation points happen and we would be above the 100 mark by ourselves.

How?
It's easy to talk in terms of points and not really understand what that means. But what do you plan do to every match that will cause your score to be over 80 every match.

hionwind 23-02-2015 15:30

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by MrJohnston (Post 1448597)
Now, I would like to think that these very good robots do not have partners that average zero points for themselves. Perhaps they average adding 20 points per robot to an alliance? So, we have a range of 118-148...

Was that deliberate or just a coincidence (Robonauts - Robowranglers)?

Sunshine 23-02-2015 15:36

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
Fair question. And again, not boasting because I think we are just average. Practice driving tells me we can do two stacks of five with RC. WE are close to perfecting 3 yellow tote stack in autonomous, get cooperation points and my points are valid. For us, practice shows we can do above in tele with 15 seconds to spare. Hoping more practice shaves off seconds to complete the rest or do more.

For the record, autonomous scares me more than usual because of what alliance partners say they can do and what happens.

It will be interesting to see possible scenario's like tug of wars for RC's in autonomous and cooperation points. We are considering dropping a 3 tote yellow stack on floor. If other alliance stacks one we'll finish it off. Strategy is in this game big time. And don't get me started on liter possibilities. Lol

VeqIR 23-02-2015 15:44

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
For the record, I'd wager if you were able to pull off an auto stack and 2x5 stacks with containers on top in tele, you would not be considered an average team. If you can do that every match, I'd say you'd be looking at a high placement in most regionals.

dellagd 23-02-2015 15:48

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by VeqIR (Post 1448811)
For the record, I'd wager if you were able to pull off an auto stack and 2x5 stacks with containers on top in tele, you would not be considered an average team. If you can do that every match, I'd say you'd be looking at a high placement in most regionals.

While you have to be careful judging from week 0 events, even being conservative, this would definitely not make you an average team...

Sunshine 23-02-2015 15:51

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
VeqIR,
Obviously I would hope you are correct but think you are wrong. When all pans out, we will be the average good bot. The super teams who took it to a whole new level excite me and make me very humble. Einstien will be very impressive this year. Back on point, the real question is what can we expect from the average alliance partner this year? What value do they add in points. I get the impression that most think we will have a weak sisters in every match adding zero. I believe that to be the exception not the rule.

hunterteam3476 23-02-2015 16:35

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
There are going to be alot of good competitions for week 1's.

PayneTrain 23-02-2015 16:47

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
Are you asking for QA or individual robot score? QA is probably between 80 and 100, Personal is 45-70.

If y'all think most Week 1 events are gonna have more than 12 teams that resemble remote competence in this game, I have some sand in the desert to sell you. You aren't playing against any defense this year, but you are playing on probably the hardest field ever.

Craig 23-02-2015 19:02

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
3x 4 tote stacks with rc...90
3/4 coop pts for 30 more
a modest 12 in auto?

Put me down for at least 130 to be the #1 seed.

Maybe I'm biased with the bar so high up in Ontario

Pretzel 23-02-2015 19:34

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
One thing to keep in mind is that the Dallas regional is in Week 1. That'll certainly pull the average up quite a bit for the #1 seeded robots.

eddie12390 24-02-2015 11:46

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by PayneTrain (Post 1448846)
Are you asking for QA -snip-?

My focus was on the qualifying average as it's easier to compare to then each team's individual contribution.

Zebra_Fact_Man 24-02-2015 11:58

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
I find it difficult to believe the the #1 seeded robot won't be able to on average score 3 six-tote stacks worth of points as an alliance, even with 2 limited-functionality robots as partners. Add in the coop stack which should be close to 100%:

36 x 3 + 40 = easily 140.

Forget auton points and you should still be scoring 140.

Abhishek R 24-02-2015 12:51

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
I would be really impressed if any team can consistently make 3 stacks 6 high with a can on top every match.

dodar 24-02-2015 12:54

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Abhishek R (Post 1449229)
I would be really impressed if any team can consistently make 3 stacks 6 high with a can on top every match.

If you can grab a tote/bin every 6 seconds, it can be done.

Abhishek R 24-02-2015 12:58

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by dodar (Post 1449230)
If you can grab a tote/bin every 6 seconds, it can be done.

That's why I said I would be impressed; I didn't say it was impossible. 6 seconds per game piece is incredible efficiency.

Zebra_Fact_Man 24-02-2015 13:02

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Abhishek R (Post 1449229)
I would be really impressed if any team can consistently make 3 stacks 6 high with a can on top every match.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zebra_Fact_Man (Post 1449211)
I find it difficult to believe the the #1 seeded robot won't be able to on average score 3 six-tote stacks worth of points as an alliance

That's why I specified as an alliance. The best robots this year might not be the ones that can do the most independently, but can do the most with any other robot alliance members AKA the team player.

Abhishek R 24-02-2015 13:03

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Zebra_Fact_Man (Post 1449237)
That's why I specified as an alliance. The best robots this year might not be the ones that can do the most independently, but can do the most with any other robot alliance members AKA the team player.

Yup, agreed.

MrForbes 24-02-2015 13:08

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
Although what the "team player" can accomplish, is limited by the capabilities of the "team" (alliance).

Which is why it's going to vary quite a bit between regionals, and on average probably will end up around 100 points.

cmrnpizzo14 24-02-2015 13:38

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by dodar (Post 1448657)
So you are assuming the #1 from regionals/districts will average only 20 tote/bin/robot points from Auto and Tele-op through their qualification matches?

Week 1, yes.

Auto will often be zero points in week 1 I think. I don't anticipate a lot of teams being able to contribute and I don't think that the top seed at every regional will have an autonomous routine that will account for other teams doing nothing.

I think that there will be a lot of time wasted in teleop waiting for the other alliance to complete there part of coopertition, often I don't think that it will be done at all, so that isn't even a sure 40 points. Noodles I wouldn't guarantee either.

Overall, I think week 1 is going to look pretty pathetic for most competitions in quals with teams fumbling around and getting in eachothers' ways. I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of teams end up knocking over the RC's and rendering them unusable for the alliance.

AdamHeard 24-02-2015 13:48

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by cmrnpizzo14 (Post 1449247)
Overall, I think week 1 is going to look pretty pathetic for most competitions in quals with teams fumbling around and getting in eachothers' ways. I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of teams end up knocking over the RC's and rendering them unusable for the alliance.

If a team can't pick up a knocked over RC (which really should be considered a right side up RC for stability reasons) they need to reassess their design if they are hoping to do a lot with RCs.

mrnoble 24-02-2015 13:52

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
I'm pretty sure that there are more quality machines being built today than there were, say, five years ago. Credit that to increasing participation in and awareness of CD, Ri3D videos, and fantastic bumps in quality from AndyMark, Vex, and other suppliers. I think people are still overestimating the scoring ability of robots (usually their own), and that #1 seed scores will be <100, but I wouldn't be surprised if there were two or three or more robots that can pull off the three tote auto at each regional.

PayneTrain 24-02-2015 14:24

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 


Not only are there a lot of posts that overestimate like they do every year, it's particularly odd this year. Why? Let's recap

1) This is the hardest game in the modern era.
2) This is the hardest game in the modern era.
3) This is the hardest game in the modern era.
4) This is the hardest game in the modern era.
5) This is the hardest game in the modern era.

By hardest, I don't mean plain stupid like Lunacy. I mean designing a robot that fits in to an ideal alliance this year and being able to execute that strategy with two partners who also fit in your strategy at a Week 1 is going to be VERY VERY NOT EASY. If a team plays 10 matches in a field of 60, they will have up to 20 unique partners. They will not have the top 20 of the remaining 59 robots partnered with them. They will be fortunate to get 10 of the top.

This is not an easy game! What is the minimum competitive concept? How many points can the MCC convert or help convert in a match? How often is the best team at a Week 1 event going to be paired with two robots that reach above the standard of the MCC? How are you getting an answer that generates a #1 QA during week 1 of 140+ points?

Think about how many teams have built robots that never considered how the hell they are even getting the totes! They don't gracefully fall from the heavens on the field right side up and evenly spaced! They come out of the most restrictive human player interface in the modern era, are shoved together up against a wall with no space between them, or blocked by other totes shoved up against a wall on a box with lips!

You think the co-op step is going to be almost 100% in Week 1?????? Was the Co-Op bridge even 50% in Week 1 in 2012? Did a majority of the teams come to the event last year understanding what the hell their human player was even supposed to be doing? How many teams do you think actually comprehended the significance of the 2nd order sort last year during week 1? When yahoos start chucking noodles into the gap of the landfill zone at the start of the match, you're probably not going to see a co-op conversion. Teams are going to be flummoxed when they realize the chute is not their friend. Teams are going to hit unprotected partners and knock over stacks.

You can have the best robot on the field but you can't prevent stupid. You can try to treat it or mitigate it, but so many teams who compete in Week 1 are ignorant to the rest of the competition outside of their 42x28x72 volume.

cmrnpizzo14 24-02-2015 14:40

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by AdamHeard (Post 1449254)
If a team can't pick up a knocked over RC (which really should be considered a right side up RC for stability reasons) they need to reassess their design if they are hoping to do a lot with RCs.

I agree but I also think a lot of teams won't consider that until after week 1.

Abhishek R 24-02-2015 14:50

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
One of the things that makes this year hard is the fact that totes and RCs are not each exclusively beneficial by themselves. In past years, teams have only had to manipulate a single game piece. Now, an RC is useless without a stack of totes underneath it, and a stack is no more valuable unless a can is on top of it. So for a single team to put up huge points in teleop, they have to be able to handle two game pieces EFFICIENTLY. As dodar pointed out earlier, it takes 6 seconds per object to get 3 stacks. That's harder than it sounds; I would put a fast robot at 8-9 seconds average for a game piece, mainly because the time it takes to acquire a can is significantly longer for many teams than the time to get a tote.

It was hard to get an alliance to be very coordinated last year in week 1. I doubt much will change this year; it still takes a lot of coordination to play well.

dellagd 24-02-2015 14:54

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by PayneTrain (Post 1449273)
You think the co-op step is going to be almost 100% in Week 1?????? Was the Co-Op bridge even 50% in Week 1 in 2012? Did a majority of the teams come to the event last year understanding what the hell their human player was even supposed to be doing? How many teams do you think actually comprehended the significance of the 2nd order sort last year during week 1? When yahoos start chucking noodles into the gap of the landfill zone at the start of the match, you're probably not going to see a co-op conversion. Teams are going to be flummoxed when they realize the chute is not their friend. Teams are going to hit unprotected partners and knock over stacks.

This. Definitely.

I end up saying this a lot to my team. It's easy to forget how many teams aren't active in the online community at all.

While the importance of the co-op stack may seem glaring to most of us, there are a lot of teams out there who just haven't picked up on it yet. Same thing with the human player. It's clear to us here that lining up with the human player station is not something trivial, but a lot of teams will simply not take it into account, may it be for lack of team resources or simply inexperience. I mean, and this is just an educated guess, but out of the 3000 some-odd teams in the world, I would wager that most don't even finish their robot before bag day, let alone have the practice time to see how there robot really interacts with the field during match play.

All the reveal videos going around tie into this too. Its easy to say that the average robot will be scoring 60+ points a match after watching those. I know, a bunch of people on my team did. If a team bothers to put together a video, then, first of all, they have their robot all ready to go before bag day, which means they are already pretty well off, and two, they think they will be competitive. Those videos are not accurately representative of the population of FRC teams that we will all see at our events. Be careful when you let them influence your predictions.

Boltman 24-02-2015 15:56

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by dellagd (Post 1449291)
This. Definitely.

I end up saying this a lot to my team. It's easy to forget how many teams aren't active in the online community at all.

While the importance of the co-op stack may seem glaring to most of us, there are a lot of teams out there who just haven't picked up on it yet. Same thing with the human player. It's clear to us here that lining up with the human player station is not something trivial, but a lot of teams will simply not take it into account, may it be for lack of team resources or simply inexperience. I mean, and this is just an educated guess, but out of the 3000 some-odd teams in the world, I would wager that most don't even finish their robot before bag day, let alone have the practice time to see how there robot really interacts with the field during match play.

All the reveal videos going around tie into this too. Its easy to say that the average robot will be scoring 60+ points a match after watching those. I know, a bunch of people on my team did. If a team bothers to put together a video, then, first of all, they have their robot all ready to go before bag day, which means they are already pretty well off, and two, they think they will be competitive. Those videos are not accurately representative of the population of FRC teams that we will all see at our events. Be careful when you let them influence your predictions.

Agree.

Its so easy to be enamored with all the reveal video's keep in mind almost every one was edited to show the robot in best light. In our reveal for instance everything was full speed and only cut in three places, partly to take out a delayed noodle insertion as she was not the normal noodle girl. This provided for the most part accurate assessment of shown capabilities.

Many of the TOP 25 reveals and others posted were HIGHLY edited and video speeds either slowed or increased. This again to put the robot for TOP 25 reveals in best light.

I have a distinct feeling after watching the 5 minute Week 0 matches that 2:30 (- 45% of match time) Week 1 matches will be fairly low scoring overall. Alliance partners can help the average or curtail it really depends on who is on your team.

I think this game unlike past years really is hard to predict as there are so many variables to take into account and hard to fully duplicate field conditions. I'm glad we got two full days of practice initially we were terrible but we got better another Thursday practice will be needed ahead of our matches to be primed to compete. At least we will have the benefit of seeing earlier results that is huge.

Jared 24-02-2015 16:24

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by PayneTrain (Post 1449273)
Not only are there a lot of posts that overestimate like they do every year, it's particularly odd this year. Why? Let's recap

1) This is the hardest game in the modern era.
<snip>
5) This is the hardest game in the modern era.

I do agree that this game is spectacularly difficult and slower paced than most games (many teams had to speed up their robot reveal videos and make cuts - it's not too exciting to see a robot park in front of a feeder station and load 6 totes for 25 seconds), but I'm not as pessimistic as you are.

Here are a few reasons:
1). Teams have access to an amazing selection of COTS parts this year, including REV robotics bearings/extrusions for making simple lifts, new Vex Pro and AndyMark gearboxes for powering these lifts, and many options for affordable, off the shelf drive systems. These COTS products are cheaper than ever before, so building a decent elevator is no longer too difficult.

2). There are a decent number of reasonable easy points to get. Coopertition sets are quite easy to get, and a coopertition stack only requires one robot to do any stacking so it may happen more than the 2012 co-op bridge, which required two robots to be good balancers.

3). There's less room for robot damage. In previous years, there has been lots of defense, things to fall off of, things to crash into, and scoring racks to get tangled in. This year, there's not much on the field that can damage your robot.

4). It's easy to practice. A practice field can be very close to the competition field this year. Teams need less room to set up the field, and the scoring platforms, tote chute, and step are much less complicated than the 2013 tower + goals, the 2012 bridge + hoops, and is as easy to build as the 2014 low goal and high goal.

5). RI3D. The Team Indiana lexan flaps are a great idea that many teams have implemented.

I could be wrong, but it seems like we've gotten carried away with saying that teams will always do worse than we expect.

evanperryg 24-02-2015 16:41

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by PayneTrain (Post 1449273)
1) This is the hardest game in the modern era.
2) This is the hardest game in the modern era.
3) This is the hardest game in the modern era.
4) This is the hardest game in the modern era.
5) This is the hardest game in the modern era.

By hardest, I don't mean plain stupid like Lunacy...

Think about how many teams have built robots that never considered how the hell they are even getting the totes! They don't gracefully fall from the heavens on the field right side up and evenly spaced! They come out of the most restrictive human player interface in the modern era, are shoved together up against a wall with no space between them, or blocked by other totes shoved up against a wall on a box with lips!

You think the co-op step is going to be almost 100% in Week 1?????? Was the Co-Op bridge even 50% in Week 1 in 2012? Did a majority of the teams come to the event last year understanding what the hell their human player was even supposed to be doing? How many teams do you think actually comprehended the significance of the 2nd order sort last year during week 1? When yahoos start chucking noodles into the gap of the landfill zone at the start of the match, you're probably not going to see a co-op conversion. Teams are going to be flummoxed when they realize the chute is not their friend. Teams are going to hit unprotected partners and knock over stacks.

A) Most complicated? Sure, I'd agree with that. Scoring this year is pretty complicated. Hardest? Hard to say. Sure, many teams likely went through the difficulties of making a mechanism that can pick up a can and a tote, but there are common dimensions between the two. Every game has its challenges; just because this year's game presents a unique challenge doesn't necessarily make it any "harder." We'll see how difficult it actually is after week 1.
B) Think back, I don't know about you, but I see no difference between the tote chute and 2013's disc chute. It's not like most teams let discs drop to the floor then pick them up with a ground collector, and those that did generally had very good ground collectors. Same applies this season, have you seen any reveal videos? Many robots have chutes that line up with the human loader, just like they did in 2013.
C) The game evolves as teams find better and more complex strategies. Like you said, we saw that last year with human players. If a human player is throwing noodles where you don't want him to, perhaps your drive team should communicate with the human player. Or, possibly even better, tell the human player to chill with the noodle throwing all together.
D)https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eGYOFU5CnlI

Edit- that said, I think week one qualifier scores won't exceed 80, averaging 40-50. As always, many teams will have inexperienced drivers and strategies will be underdeveloped.

Mark Sheridan 24-02-2015 16:57

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by AdamHeard (Post 1449254)
If a team can't pick up a knocked over RC (which really should be considered a right side up RC for stability reasons) they need to reassess their design if they are hoping to do a lot with RCs.

Ditto, some of us prefer it knocked over!

Green Potato 24-02-2015 16:58

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
It'll heavily vary based on the regional itself and the level of "competition" there. In this game, there is no real defense, and thus better robots will likely lead more directly to higher average scores than in years past. I'd guess anywhere in the 80- 100 range, but for week one and especially the weaker completions, they may be on the low end of that.

PayneTrain 24-02-2015 23:15

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Jared (Post 1449340)
I do agree that this game is spectacularly difficult and slower paced than most games (many teams had to speed up their robot reveal videos and make cuts - it's not too exciting to see a robot park in front of a feeder station and load 6 totes for 25 seconds), but I'm not as pessimistic as you are.

Here are a few reasons:
1). Teams have access to an amazing selection of COTS parts this year, including REV robotics bearings/extrusions for making simple lifts, new Vex Pro and AndyMark gearboxes for powering these lifts, and many options for affordable, off the shelf drive systems. These COTS products are cheaper than ever before, so building a decent elevator is no longer too difficult.

2). There are a decent number of reasonable easy points to get. Coopertition sets are quite easy to get, and a coopertition stack only requires one robot to do any stacking so it may happen more than the 2012 co-op bridge, which required two robots to be good balancers.

3). There's less room for robot damage. In previous years, there has been lots of defense, things to fall off of, things to crash into, and scoring racks to get tangled in. This year, there's not much on the field that can damage your robot.

4). It's easy to practice. A practice field can be very close to the competition field this year. Teams need less room to set up the field, and the scoring platforms, tote chute, and step are much less complicated than the 2013 tower + goals, the 2012 bridge + hoops, and is as easy to build as the 2014 low goal and high goal.

5). RI3D. The Team Indiana lexan flaps are a great idea that many teams have implemented.

I could be wrong, but it seems like we've gotten carried away with saying that teams will always do worse than we expect.

1) Building the elevator would not have been the hardest part of this game even without COTS.

2) Even if you think Co-op stacks/sets are easy to get, the act of placing the scoring objects is not the hardest part of this maneuver. It's both alliances understanding pre-planning and both alliances able to execute this.

3) Damage by opponents has been replaced with damage by partners and/or falling scoring objects. The COTS factor you mentioned in #1 rears its ugly head here. Even smart teams are running 2 speed ballshifters. High speed impacts into a frame w/o bumpers is not fun. In terms of game piece weight, the cans are the heaviest and the totes are the third heaviest scoring objects in the modern era. The second heaviest object, the tetra, were not scored on precarious goals on the field, but on two bumps that cross over half the field.

4) It is easy to practice, but given the difficulty of the game I've been trying to describe, and weather in some places, how much time did WEEK 1 teams get to practice, even for the select group with a practice machine?

5) Ri3D may be the downfall of some teams. How many machines adequately covered how to acquire totes from the landfill or station and adequately communicated to people who use those resources that that is such a priority?

eddie12390 25-02-2015 11:56

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
I mistakenly made this poll end a week later than I had intended to. I plan to post another poll Saturday night along with a quick analysis of how well Chief Delphi was able to predict scoring and how that ability to predict changes over the season. The level of discussion and widely varying votes have piqued my interest. Unfortunately, due to the nature of the poll I was unable to do anything meaningful statistically with the data. Next week's poll will have a more realistic minimum and will not include any values that aren't numerical. Thanks to everyone who voted. In case anyone is interested, here's a slightly prettier chart of the data provided. I find it funny how closely it resembles a normal curve up until the very end of the chart.


AdamHeard 25-02-2015 12:00

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by eddie12390 (Post 1449664)
I mistakenly made this poll end a week later than I had intended to. I plan to post another poll Saturday night along with a quick analysis of how well Chief Delphi was able to predict scoring and how that ability to predict changes over the season. The level of discussion and widely varying votes have piqued my interest. Unfortunately, due to the nature of the poll I was unable to do anything meaningful statistically with the data. Next week's poll will have a more realistic minimum and will not include any values that aren't numerical. Thanks to everyone who voted. In case anyone is interested, here's a slightly prettier chart of the data provided. I find it funny how closely it resembles a normal curve up until the very end of the chart.


The end of the chart isn't a single category of 10 points, it's everyone who thinks 140 and above. That will inherently skew it.

eddie12390 25-02-2015 12:01

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by AdamHeard (Post 1449667)
The end of the chart isn't a single category of 10 points, it's everyone who thinks 140 and above. That will inherently skew it.

I understand, I commented on that in my post.

Chris is me 25-02-2015 12:12

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
60.

Keep in mind no one plays at full strength on match 1 of week 1, I expect the average #1 seed to be as good as a team that can auto and co-op consistently, even if they do nothing else.

Some regionals won't have this robot, some teams with this robot won't be consistent every match, but the somewhat fluctuating nature of extra can points somewhat cancels this out.

Nick Lawrence 25-02-2015 12:14

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
60 is about right IMHO. Remember it's an average not a median. This game is hard.

-Nick

Rangel 25-02-2015 12:21

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
Starting to agree around 60-70. Even with a strong regional like Dallas where at least one team will probably be able to consistently put up very high points, it isn't really going to affect the average number 1 seed score across all regionals that much.

GeeTwo 25-02-2015 17:34

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
Ok, I'm puzzed. I know there's no mathematical validity in the musings below, but trying to make sense of these polls is failing me.

At the How many points do you think your robot could score individually? thread, the median answer is at the very high end of the 61-70 range, so the median responder expects to score about 70 points. (The mean isn't far off, though it's difficult to evaluate with the last, indeterminate value.)

On this poll, the median responder expects the average regional top seed to be 100. Assuming the populations of the two polls are similar, this raises the question:

Does a typical responder
  • expect alliance partners to only average 15 points each, and to be top seed
  • expect even worse performance from partners
  • change expectations that much in four days
  • something else?

bduddy 25-02-2015 17:43

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by GeeTwo (Post 1449843)
Ok, I'm puzzed. I know there's no mathematical validity in the musings below, but trying to make sense of these polls is failing me.

At the How many points do you think your robot could score individually? thread, the median answer is at the very high end of the 61-70 range, so the median responder expects to score about 70 points. (The mean isn't far off, though it's difficult to evaluate with the last, indeterminate value.)

On this poll, the median responder expects the average regional top seed to be 100. Assuming the populations of the two polls are similar, this raises the question:

Does a typical responder
  • expect alliance partners to only average 15 points each, and to be top seed
  • expect even worse performance from partners
  • change expectations that much in four days
  • something else?

I would wager that the typical respondent here has an above-average robot, and likely does expect their alliance partners to be much worse than them. Many are also not participating in Week 1. The previous poll could also be construed as asking about potential maximum performance, not necessarily performance in the first event.

Kevin Leonard 25-02-2015 17:51

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
Quote:

Does a typical responder
  • expect alliance partners to only average 15 points each, and to be top seed
  • expect even worse performance from partners
  • change expectations that much in four days
  • something else?

I would be very surprised if average alliance partners at a week 1 regional averaged 15 points each. That's 7-8 scored totes. Being that most alliance partners won't have a point scoring autonomous, or be able to make more than one stack of totes, I'd feel very confident saying the average robot will score 15 or less points in an average match.

Jared 25-02-2015 17:51

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by GeeTwo (Post 1449843)
Ok, I'm puzzed. I know there's no mathematical validity in the musings below, but trying to make sense of these polls is failing me.

At the How many points do you think your robot could score individually? thread, the median answer is at the very high end of the 61-70 range, so the median responder expects to score about 70 points. (The mean isn't far off, though it's difficult to evaluate with the last, indeterminate value.)

On this poll, the median responder expects the average regional top seed to be 100. Assuming the populations of the two polls are similar, this raises the question:

Does a typical responder
  • expect alliance partners to only average 15 points each, and to be top seed
  • expect even worse performance from partners
  • change expectations that much in four days
  • something else?

It seems people like to talk about the lack of ability from "the average team". They believe that "most teams" (people that aren't them) can't really do anything, and will fall over, get stuck on noodles, get in the way, knock their own stack over, and won't figure out how to pick up totes. Remember, we haven't seen real competition yet, and we've actually underestimated teams in the past.

vhcook 25-02-2015 17:59

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by GeeTwo (Post 1449843)
Ok, I'm puzzed. I know there's no mathematical validity in the musings below, but trying to make sense of these polls is failing me.

At the How many points do you think your robot could score individually? thread, the median answer is at the very high end of the 61-70 range, so the median responder expects to score about 70 points. (The mean isn't far off, though it's difficult to evaluate with the last, indeterminate value.)

On this poll, the median responder expects the average regional top seed to be 100. Assuming the populations of the two polls are similar, this raises the question:

Does a typical responder
  • expect alliance partners to only average 15 points each, and to be top seed
  • expect even worse performance from partners
  • change expectations that much in four days
  • something else?

Something else. The linked question asks how much your robot could score individually in ideal conditions. A team's average contribution in actual match conditions is most probably lower than their response to that poll, which is also likely to have been a bit optimistic on average. They may also assume that the median robot at an event may not score as well as the typical team that would respond to a poll on CD. Also, it's week 1, so scores are typically lower, and many respondents to the original poll may not be competing this week or may have been estimating their ideal performance during the entire season (second event improvement).

Rypsnort 25-02-2015 20:40

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
We have to remember we are talking #1 seed here. I feel that, even though it is week 1, the top teams will still preform at a high level. I think that OPR of top teams will be more prevalent in week one than score average because of the lower level of play that comes with week one events. (ie. The top teams will really stand out early in the year.)

Green Potato 25-02-2015 21:22

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
Statistics to the rescue!

We have the data right here, and through a bit of math, we can sort of get an idea of where the real average score will fall according to those polled. I'll use a 95% confidence interval for this, just to keep things standard.

First are the assumptions. We appear to have independence, as I really doubt anyone who voted secretly collaborated with someone else just for a poll, but because opinions were expressed below and that may have affected people's argument, I'll proceed with caution. As for the sample being random, it's far from perfect, but it's close enough. The people voting here are cognizant of what teams will be competing, and are generally good at taking educated guesses. However, this really can't easily extend into the general community's opinion, as people posting on this site are much more likely to be from better, more established teams than the weaker ones. Again, this is a reason to proceed with caution when analyzing the data above.

Also, this poll wasn't purely quantitative, as an potion for more than 140 was given. For this number, I estimated the average to be about 155 based on how normal curves behave, but again, this is a point where the real and hypothetical worlds don't mix well.

Just to give some reference...

The mean is 96.96 points per match.
The sample standard deviation is 30.12 points per match.

Assuming this model is an accurate representation of performance (HUGE leap here, even though we have assumptions to back it up a bit, this will likely be a large source of error), we get a 95% confidence interval of...
(93.59 , 100.33)

And there you have it. I am 95% confident that the true mean expectation of the highest qualifier, according to the Chief Delphi community who bothered to vote on this post and who may or may not have a good grasp on the reality of week 1 competitions, is between 93.59 and 100.3 points.

And that's why the real answer is, "We'll see." :rolleyes:

Boltman 25-02-2015 23:06

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Green Potato (Post 1449917)
Statistics to the rescue!

We have the data right here, and through a bit of math, we can sort of get an idea of where the real average score will fall according to those polled. I'll use a 95% confidence interval for this, just to keep things standard.

First are the assumptions. We appear to have independence, as I really doubt anyone who voted secretly collaborated with someone else just for a poll, but because opinions were expressed below and that may have affected people's argument, I'll proceed with caution. As for the sample being random, it's far from perfect, but it's close enough. The people voting here are cognizant of what teams will be competing, and are generally good at taking educated guesses. However, this really can't easily extend into the general community's opinion, as people posting on this site are much more likely to be from better, more established teams than the weaker ones. Again, this is a reason to proceed with caution when analyzing the data above.

Also, this poll wasn't purely quantitative, as an potion for more than 140 was given. For this number, I estimated the average to be about 155 based on how normal curves behave, but again, this is a point where the real and hypothetical worlds don't mix well.

Just to give some reference...

The mean is 96.96 points per match.
The sample standard deviation is 30.12 points per match.

Assuming this model is an accurate representation of performance (HUGE leap here, even though we have assumptions to back it up a bit, this will likely be a large source of error), we get a 95% confidence interval of...
(93.59 , 100.33)

And there you have it. I am 95% confident that the true mean expectation of the highest qualifier, according to the Chief Delphi community who bothered to vote on this post and who may or may not have a good grasp on the reality of week 1 competitions, is between 93.59 and 100.3 points.

And that's why the real answer is, "We'll see." :rolleyes:

So 100 like I said

PayneTrain 25-02-2015 23:11

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Boltman (Post 1449966)
So 100 like I said

I'm all out of gold stars, consider this an iou

Boltman 25-02-2015 23:16

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by PayneTrain (Post 1449971)
I'm all out of gold stars, consider this an iou

Marked down

MrForbes 02-03-2015 01:07

Re: Week 1 Number One Seed Score Average
 
and the answer is.....80


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 06:00.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © Chief Delphi