Chief Delphi - District Championship Projections

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- District Events (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=190)

- - District Championship Projections (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showthread.php?t=135650)

Nathan Streeter

24-03-2015 10:53

Re: District Championship Projections

Quote:

Originally Posted by rwodonnell (Post 1461409)

I hope this is much closer to the real cutoff (we're at 69 points) and I really think it is. Not only are there 9 teams competing whose points won't count, as you said, but there is one team (236) who is already at 73 points, and another 4 teams who have won Chairman's awards. That's really 14 teams (11 in Hartford alone) whose points don't matter for those teams trying to reach the unknown threshold (assuming that threshold is under the 73 points team 236 already has.)

By the way, I thought there were going to be 60 invitations this year.

Certainly there are several factors that may bring that cutoff down below the 70pt mark...

I have no idea what the invitation count will be... I've tried looking around for it but have come up empty-handed. Battlecry has gone up above 54 teams in recent years, but I figured keeping my guess based on a 54-team list would be safe. If it bumps up to 60 teams, then that obviously brings the point threshold down by probably 1-3 points from whatever it would be.

gafftron

24-03-2015 11:17

Re: District Championship Projections

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nathan Streeter (Post 1461555)

The invitation counts are actually posted in the Admin manual:

Quote:

7.4.3 District Championship
Number of teams attending District Championship
FiM .................................................. .................................................. ......... 102
IN................................................ .................................................. ................ 32
MAR .................................................. .................................................. ......... 55
NE .................................................. .................................................. ............ 60
PNW............................................... .................................................. ............ 64

So it looks like WPI will be hosting 60 teams for the NE Championship.

Nathan Streeter

24-03-2015 11:52

Re: District Championship Projections

Quote:

Originally Posted by gafftron (Post 1461568)

The invitation counts are actually posted in the Admin manual:

So it looks like WPI will be hosting 60 teams for the NE Championship.

Oops... I usually pride myself on familiarity with the manual too! :-/

In that case, I'm expecting the cutoff to be 65 points... +/- 1 pt. We'll see on Sunday, I guess!

Mr V	24-03-2015 13:03

Re: District Championship Projections

The "official" projection to qualify for the PNW DCMP is 58 points.

PVCpirate

24-03-2015 13:28

Re: District Championship Projections

Here's what I got using my method:

Code:

WEEK 4 PROJECTIONS

Michigan: ↓   53 points

Indiana:  ↓   42 points(complete)

PNW:     ↓    47 points

MAR:     ↑    70 points

New England: ↓ 56 points

Honestly I think these are pretty useless this week, Michigan, PNW and New England all look too low and MAR looks too high. Figured I would do them anyway for continuity or something.

PVCpirate

24-03-2015 13:36

Re: District Championship Projections

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brandon_L (Post 1460717)

There are differences in the amount of district points teams are getting according to the blue alliance and the district ranking website. Am I correct to assume that the district ranking website would have the correct point value?

Example - 2495 has 21 points at chestnut hill according to http://frc-districtrankings.usfirst.org/MAR but according to TBA has 24 points.

I noticed this too, I think the issue is that TBA isn't calculating the ranking points correctly. During the UNH district, they were reporting 12 ranking points for teams at the bottom who should get something like 4 points.

Link07

24-03-2015 13:36

Re: District Championship Projections

Quote:

Originally Posted by PVCpirate (Post 1461624)

Here's what I got using my method:

Code:

WEEK 4 PROJECTIONS

Michigan: ↓   53 points

Indiana:  ↓   42 points(complete)

PNW:     ↓    47 points

MAR:     ↑    70 points

New England: ↓ 56 points

Honestly I think these are pretty useless this week, Michigan, PNW and New England all look too low and MAR looks too high. Figured I would do them anyway for continuity or something.

I haven't run any numbers or projections myself, but I think I can say with confidence that 70 is too high for MAR.

Orthofort

24-03-2015 15:58

Re: District Championship Projections

I did a projection just for Michigan by giving each team that haven't played 2 events the same score they got in the first event and I got 64-66, depending on how good the teams are that haven't played any events yet. Because of this, I estimate for Michigan it will be 64, maybe 65. FYI I did this using the numbers on the official FIRST ranking page, because I noticed TBA wasn't calculating qualification points correctly.

What method are you using to get 53 for Michigan? I cannot see the point values being that low.

Also I could do the same for the other districts if there is interest.

Richard Wallace

24-03-2015 16:26

Re: District Championship Projections

Quote:

Originally Posted by Orthofort (Post 1461705)

Your estimate seems good to me because it matches this. Also, FiM leadership has already communicated to Michigan teams that they anticipate the cutoff will be around 63 points.

IceStorm

24-03-2015 18:59

Quote:

Originally Posted by Orthofort (Post 1461705)

I do the same thing with giving points equal to first event. How do you calculate the teams that have not played at all?

Orthofort

24-03-2015 21:44

Re: District Championship Projections

Quote:

Originally Posted by IceStorm (Post 1461776)

I do the same thing with giving points equal to first event. How do you calculate the teams that have not played at all?

I use a range, where the lower bound is if none of the teams that haven't played make it in, and the upper bound is if a proportional amount of teams make it in from this pool. So for example, after week 3 there were 40 teams in Michigan that hadn't played, if we take the proportion 102 qualifying / 347 total teams then we can expect a maximum of 12 teams making it from this group, and a minimum of 0.

For what it's worth, I think it's fair to do this because in general, the teams that wait until the last couple of weeks to do their events aren't as experienced or might not even go to 2 events. This of course is not true for every team but I think is generally true.

PVCpirate

24-03-2015 23:38

Re: District Championship Projections

Quote:

Originally Posted by Orthofort (Post 1461705)

If you go to the first page I explained how I was doing it, I'm basically just taking the percent of teams that have competed, multiplying that by the DCMP capacity, and then using the team at that ranking spot to determine the projected cutoff. It seems to work best when most of the teams have competed once, but very few have gone twice.

swootton

25-03-2015 07:41

Re: District Championship Projections

I'd love to see your prediction for NE. WE have 66 point and know we are on the bubble. I'm expecting 65 to be the cutoff.

SoftwareBug2.0

26-03-2015 01:21

Re: District Championship Projections

Quote:

Originally Posted by PVCpirate (Post 1461624)

Here's what I got using my method:

Code:

WEEK 4 PROJECTIONS

Michigan: ↓   53 points

Indiana:  ↓   42 points(complete)

PNW:     ↓    47 points

MAR:     ↑    70 points

New England: ↓ 56 points

Honestly I think these are pretty useless this week, Michigan, PNW and New England all look too low and MAR looks too high. Figured I would do them anyway for continuity or something.

Yeah, I hate to pile on but the number for the PNW cutoff is not a good guess. The PNW district championship is a 64 team event and the 64th most points right now is already at 47.

Andy A.

30-03-2015 09:48

Re: District Championship Projections

For anyone who hadn't noticed yet, NEDC qualified teams are now indicated on the leaderboard at http://frc-districtrankings.usfirst.org/NE . The point cut off was 66.

Incidentally, three cheers to FIRST for the leaderboard site! It's a fantastic tool; fast to update, easy to navigate, easy to understand. After years of struggling with the typical FIRST web based tools this was a breath of fresh air.

All times are GMT -5. The time now is 22:50.

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