Re: 1114 the Statistical Outlier
 

It will happen sometime before Worlds, I'm rather sure.

Re: 1114 the Statistical Outlier
 

I have a lot of respect for 1114 and I can't think of a robot they have built as long as I have been in the sport that wasn't at least very very good. I never really bought into the whole fangirl movement they gathered over their history for a lot of reasons.

That being said, I knew when they showed off their fully-powdercoated robot, I felt comfortable making these assumptions:
a) They clearly found a design that they liked a LONG time ago
b) They finished that design that they liked a LONG time ago and I would love
c) I bet you would be better off clocking the amount of practice their drive team had with the official bot is better clocked in days instead of hours.

I'm hoping after the season is over someone on 1114 could give a timeline of how they moved through build season, because it looks like they had the robot ready to go by the end of Week 3. Not only is it a great design, they at least give off the appearance that they spent a colossal amount of time practicing with it.

Re: 1114 the Statistical Outlier
 

And just looking at that intake, the amount of iterations they must have gone through is amazing. You're absolutely right. I was scared when I saw that fully powdercoated robot.

Re: 1114 the Statistical Outlier
 

It will happen THIS week (Week 3).

I can feel it.

Re: 1114 the Statistical Outlier
 

Yes, it would be hugely educational and inspirational for the community (and greatly appreciated) if someone from 1114 could describe the various design options they considered, the decisions they made and the reasoning behind their decisions. Some of us have already been speculating on various topics in one of the other threads and would love to know what the real deal is.

Re: 1114 the Statistical Outlier
 

The top 6 teams are way ahead of the field. If the trend holds this will be the most lopsided year for which stats are avalaible. I'll post analysis in a couple weeks after almost all the teams have competed.

Re: 1114 the Statistical Outlier
 

I think Waterloo will be a good place for them to show/not show being able to work on a team - a lot of depth in that field.

Re: 1114 the Statistical Outlier
 

I don't think we need statistics to tell us that 1114 is an outlier:D

Re: 1114 the Statistical Outlier
 

Agreed... and it really shouldn't be that surprising (I'm not surprised, and I'm guessing you're not especially surprised)

This game is one where with good strategy, ingenuity, quality design & iteration, and plenty of practice, the sky is pretty much the limit... and your partners aren't required for high scores... hence why the top teams can put up tremendous scores. It's also a game that relies on acquiring and placing game pieces with care and precision... a huge factor in why it's very hard for low-effort or mediocre teams to have a consequential impact on the field.

Re: 1114 the Statistical Outlier
 

Congrats to 1114 on such a strong opening season.

I suspect it will be similar to 2010 as far as distribution goes. The top scoring team that year could on occasion, get into the 20s. In the next tier were a few robots that coupld regularly contribute in a manner worth about 8-9 pts. The median robot contribution was 0.8 pts/match.

FIRST games historically have a ratio of top teams to median around 6x to 10x depneding on the game. I didn't run the numbers last year, but I heard it was a historically low of about 4X. 2010 was around the 10X. I would expect 2015 to be close to 10X year as well, but likely not much higher as it gets harder to get higher scores as you go due to easy scoring material going first.

As others have said, there are a handful of teams that will likely get OPRs above 100, with a lot more knocking on the door to 100 (around 90-ish) by season end.

Current average is at about 15 with median around 13. I suspect the median will go up to about 14 or 15 by the end of the season, and the average might get to 17.
If the median gets to 15, then 10X is 150 which is doable, but quite tough to do on a regular basis.

Re: 1114 the Statistical Outlier
 

I remember seeing in one of Ed's spreadsheets that in 2008, 1114 was something like 5.67 standard deviation above the mean. That number is even crazier if you look at the p-value for it.

While there are always so, so dominant, I would have to agree. They are putting up points that seem to be about the limit of what one robot can do on its own, at least without a major change in the dynamics of the alliance. While they will continue to absolutely crush, other top tier teams will likely catch up to some degree.

Re: 1114 the Statistical Outlier
 

You missed something else here. This year, the GDC intentionally (or unintentionally, I hope) made a game that was significantly harder than previous years. Stacking totes isn't hard, but stacking totes, then placing containers on TOP of totes for the big scores is very hard. In addition, this is one of the few games in recent memory where a mistake can descore a tremendous amount of points. Make no mistake - this is a very hard game to play.

As a result, you have a game where a handful of teams are doing very, very well. The rest are struggling mightily.... and in some cases even being shuttled off to the side and not participating so they don't interfere with their stratospheric partners.

It's not like last year where even the most basic robot could do an assist. Unfortunate and probably accidental, but that's the game and teams want to win.

Re: 1114 the Statistical Outlier
 

The biggest problem with this game is that the returns grow exponentially. If your robot can just cap stacks, it's worthless without a great, fast stacker. If your robot can just stack six, it's not putting up stellar scores without a capper. If your robot can just stack 3 and cap a 3-stack, you're doing okay, but you can't compete at anywhere near the top level for elims. But if you can stack and cap six, you're putting up 3 times as many points as anyone else. There are HUGE returns for "doing everything" and huge penalties for compromising any part of your design to do "one thing well". Teams who aren't powerhouses had to choose between hoping they get to pick a perfect alliance of specialists, or trying to do everything and over committing. It's no wonder the top teams are so much better.

Re: 1114 the Statistical Outlier
 

Which is why one cannot simply win on their own. It takes coordination with alliance members.

Re: 1114 the Statistical Outlier
 

At the regional level, that isn't the case if you do everything on your own perfectly, like 1114 is clearly capable of doing. The problem is only powerhouses can successfully achieve this herculean list of tasks.

But again, 1114 is definitely capable of working with other great teams - I don't understand why you doubt this is the case, or how you think 1114 is worse than other teams as a result of not needing partners to make their stacks?