Re: 1114 the Statistical Outlier
 

If they indeed get a 200pt average that would be crazy. Let's not forget that their current average is paired with 2056 twice and 5406 once making this more of an eliminations looking average...

Re: 1114 the Statistical Outlier
 

Note sure if it was Quarterfinals Match 2, Semi-finals Match 2 or Finals Match 1 of Wisconsin Regional, but 2530 stole a can right off 3418s plunger above the step. One of the most epic moves in 2530 history.

The RC wars HAVE begun!:yikes:

Re: 1114 the Statistical Outlier
 

138 pulled a can out of our gripper in GSDE in week 1! ;)

We've been working to counter that move since...

Re: 1114 the Statistical Outlier
 

I'll admit, I haven't seen any video from Wisconsin, but whatever you did there, I have trouble imagining that it's any more epic, or more inconceivable, than this.

Re: 1114 the Statistical Outlier
 

After 4 weeks, based on the "net OPR" (minus Coop OPR), 1114 is now 8.79 standard deviations (SD) above the mean OPR. The previous high was 6.53 for 1114 in 2008. Only one other team has been above 6 at season's end.

But that skew doesn't stop with just one team here's the number of teams more than 5 and 4 SDs above the mean by year. Cumulatively, only 8 teams have ever been above 5 SD before; now we have 6 teams. And in the years with 6 teams above 4 SD, there were either 1 or 0 above 5.

SD 5 4
2015 6 10
2014 0 3
2013 2 3
2012 1 6
2011 0 6
2010 4 3
2009 0 1
2008 1 3

Re: 1114 the Statistical Outlier
 

I suspect that those number of teams above 4 and 5 SDs for 2015 will go down come champs when more high scoring teams start playing more matches together.

Did you use Ed Law's spreadsheets for all of these numbers?

Re: 1114 the Statistical Outlier
 

This is also due to the fact that frc is growing faster than ever and there is a wider possible point spread than many years.

Re: 1114 the Statistical Outlier
 

Good teams playing together should have a very small impact on OPR... it seems about as likely to slightly decrease or stagnate after Week 6 or 7 as it is to increase. Teams can't easily double scoring contribution during auto (if you have two 3-tote-autos in the same qual match) and have to work harder to double teleop scoring... (i.e., have to work to get more cans off the step, easy to eat through the landfill, etc.). Then there's obviously the issue of field congestion.

Regardless, having high scoring teams together shouldn't impact OPR... OPR should 'filter' all that out. Obviously QAs will continue to rise to be higher and higher.

Re: 1114 the Statistical Outlier
 

Yes, used Ed's spreadsheet.

I did these calculations at 2 weeks, but didn't post them, then went back to 4 weeks since all of the strongest teams have played by now. While there might be some compression at Champs, the gap is enormous right now and unlike any previous year.

As to the expansion of FRC, note that the SDs have not been steadily expanding with growth (which makes sense when looking at unitless distribution measures). In fact the years with the next greatest skews are in 2010 and 2008. This whole year looks like its an outlier, not just one team.

Re: 1114 the Statistical Outlier
 

Their average at Waterloo for quals was 183.3. They then formed an alliance with the second team who had an average of 174.4. Scores off the charts. Mind officially blown. :ahh:

Re: 1114 the Statistical Outlier
 

As a visual person, I would love to see overlapping histograms of the OPRs for all of the years that Ed has spreadsheets for. It would be useful to have a sort of "gini index" for different years. The chart should show if there is a trend towards more skewed performances, or if it's a game specific thing. I'd worry that a long-term trend of this kind would start to turn "inspiring" into "discouraging". I'll try to make the chart when I get some time, unless someone beats me to it.

Disclaimer: I am in slobbering love with Simbot Sideswipe, and I'm not calling foul over their accomplishment. I'm just interested in the meta trends of FRC, and their impact on the sustainability of the sport.

Re: 1114 the Statistical Outlier
 

I have a couple of charts done already but I haven't had time to load them up here--it's trickier than on other websites.

The skew appears to be game specific and not a trend. The games that seem to get the highest praise on CD have the lowest skew.

Re: 1114 the Statistical Outlier
 

Try uploading them to a 3rd party site (Flickr, Dropbox, Google drive, imgur) and posting a link. Otherwise, to upload to Chief you have to go here:http://www.chiefdelphi.com/media/photos/upload/

Re: 1114 the Statistical Outlier
 

As you requested. :)

http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...89#post1463289

Re: 1114 the Statistical Outlier
 

Thanks, did it and waiting for approval.