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-   -   PNW District Championship Projections 2015 (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showthread.php?t=135841)

SoftwareBug2.0 16-03-2015 18:51

PNW District Championship Projections 2015
 
Now that there are just two weeks of competition left before the district championship I thought it might be interesting to see how the field was shaping up. I did this last year as well: http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...d.php?t=128388

I'm using the same methodology as before. The same caveats apply:
-This is not official in any way
-This does not take into account chairman's award winners
-This does not take into account rookie points
-Assumes that everyone who's invited will attend

Last year's predictions turned out to be pretty good, one new thing to keep in mind this year is that there are more events late in the schedule. Last year's predictions were made with 1 and 2 weeks remaining, which was 1 and 3 events remaining, respectively. As of now there are two weeks of competition remaining and 4 events left.

Key
Code:

in=will have enough points to make it in
out=won't make it
~in=probably going to have enough points
~out=probably won't have enough points
bubble=could easily go either way

Code:

Best-case points to make it to district cmp: 37
Worst-case points to make it to district cmp: 106
Best estimate: 62
{'bubble': 79, 'out': 11, '~in': 27, '~out': 31, 'in': 4}
0        in        1983 - Skunk Works Robotics
1        in        1318 - Issaquah Robotics Society
2        in        2471 - Team Mean Machine
3        in        2635 - Lake Monsters
4        ~in        4911 - CyberKnights
5        ~in        3663 - CPR - Cedar Park Robotics
6        ~in        2907 - Lion Robotics
7        ~in        2046 - Bear Metal
8        ~in        1540 - Flaming Chickens
9        ~in        2557 - SOTAbots
10        ~in        3674 - 4-H Clover Bots
11        ~in        2930 - Glacier Peak Sonic Squirrels
12        ~in        5468 - Retro-bots
13        ~in        3826 - SkyNet Robotics North West
14        ~in        4918 - The Roboctopi
15        ~in        4488 - Shockwave
16        ~in        4205 - ROBOCUBS
17        ~in        2605 - Sehome Seamonsters
18        ~in        2550 - Skynet
19        ~in        2522 - Royal Robotics
20        ~in        1595 - Dragons
21        ~in        1510 - Wildcats
22        ~in        3586 - Pride in the Tribe-Caveman Rob...
23        ~in        4980 - Canine Crusaders
24        ~in        3218 - Panther Robotics
25        ~in        4132 - Scotbots
26        ~in        3238 - Cyborg Ferrets
27        ~in        492 - Titan Robotics Club
28        ~in        948 - NRG (Newport Robotics Group)
29        ~out        2733 - Pigmice
30        ~in        2147 - CHUCK
31        ~in        1425 - Error Code Xero
32        bubble        3574 - HIGH-TEKERZ
33        ~out        4043 - NerdHerd
34        bubble        5683 - RAVE
35        bubble        5748 - Adna Pirates
36        bubble        5111 - SaxonBots
37        bubble        3789 - On Track Robotics
38        ~out        1294 - Top Gun
39        ~out        2928 - Viking Robotics
40        bubble        4450 - Olympia Robotics Federation
41        bubble        2521 - SERT
42        ~out        2976 - Spartabots
43        bubble        5495 - Aluminati
44        bubble        955 - CV Robotics
45        ~out        4051 - Sabin-Sharks
46        bubble        2915 - Riverdale Robotics/Pandamonium
47        ~out        2811 - StormBots
48        bubble        4915 - Spartronics
49        bubble        4469 - R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial In...
50        bubble        3024 - My Favorite Team
51        ~out        753 - High Desert Droids
52        bubble        4513 - Circuit Breakers
53        bubble        2990 - Hotwire
54        ~out        3220 - Mechanics of Mayhem
55        bubble        3049 - BremerTron
56        bubble        3787 - Wild Robotocats
57        bubble        3221 - KM Royals
58        bubble        3681 - Robo-Raiders
59        bubble        3711 - Iron Mustang
60        bubble        5450 - Intergalactic Order of Robots
61        bubble        997 - Spartan Robotics
62        bubble        3693 - GearHead Pirates
63        bubble        4061 - SciBorgs
64        ~out        2903 - NeoBots
65        bubble        2093 - Bowtie Brigade
66        out        4662 - Tribal Tech
67        bubble        3393 - Horns of Havoc
68        bubble        4654 - Mountaineers
69        bubble        2555 - RoboRams
70        bubble        2910 - Jack in the Bot
71        bubble        1778 - Chill Out..!
72        out        4180 - Iron Riders
73        bubble        4608 - Duct Tape Warriors
74        bubble        2149 - CV Bearbots
75        out        2411 - Rebel @lliance
76        bubble        957 - SWARM
77        bubble        3219 - TREAD
78        out        2660 - Pengbots
79        bubble        2944 - Titanium Tigers
80        bubble        4057 - Klamath Basin Robotics
81        bubble        488 - Team XBot
82        bubble        949 - Wolverine Robotics
83        bubble        3588 - the Talon
84        bubble        5779 - CB Tech
85        out        3673 - C.Y.B.O.R.G. Seagulls
86        bubble        3968 - Higher Voltage
87        bubble        4127 - LoggerBots
88        bubble        956 - Eagle Cybertechnology
89        bubble        360 - The Revolution
90        bubble        4060 - S.W.A.G.
91        bubble        3268 - Vahallabots
92        bubble        2923 - Aggies
93        bubble        3812 - Bits & Bots
94        out        4542 - Titanium Talons
95        out        3636 - Generals
96        bubble        2906 - Sentinel Prime Robotics
97        bubble        3237 - Bionic Braves
98        bubble        3876 - Mabton LugNutz
99        bubble        1359 - Scalawags
100        out        4683 - Full-metal Robotics
101        bubble        2192 - YAK Attack
102        bubble        2412 - Robototes
103        bubble        4089 - Stealth Robotics
104        bubble        2374 - Crusader Bots
105        bubble        4681 - Murphy's law
106        bubble        4125 - Confidential
107        out        4173 - Bulldogs
108        bubble        2980 - The Whidbey Island Wild Cats
109        bubble        2929 - JAGBOTS
110        bubble        4120 - Jagwires
111        bubble        3781 - Cardinal 4-H Robotics
112        bubble        1432 - Metal Beavers
113        bubble        4309 - 4-H Botsmiths
114        out        3131 - Gladiators
115        bubble        2517 - Green Wrenches
116        bubble        4077 - M*A*S*H
117        bubble        4726 - Robo Dynasty
118        bubble        3576 - Clover Park High School Warrio...
119        bubble        847 - PHRED
120        ~out        5497 - Foxes
121        bubble        1258 - SeaBot
122        bubble        4030 - NullPointerException
123        bubble        4692 - Metal Mallards
124        out        1571 - Error404
125        bubble        1899 - Saints Robotics
126        bubble        4082 - Ranching Robots
127        ~out        5198 - RoboKnight Force
128        ~out        5295 - Aldernating Current
129        bubble        4579 - RoboEagles
130        bubble        3223 - RetroBotics
131        bubble        3192 - Tiger Bytes
132        ~out        5588 - Holy Names Academy
133        bubble        4682 - Brave Bots
134        bubble        4110 - DEEP SPACE NINERS
135        ~out        4131 - Iron Patriots
136        ~out        4495 - Tigers
137        ~out        4104 - Blackhawks
138        ~out        2002 - Tualatin Robotics
139        ~out        3070 - Team Pronto
140        ~out        2148 - Mechaknights
141        ~out        3575 - Okanogan FFA Redneck 2.0
142        ~out        3684 - Electric Eagles
143        ~out        5085 - LakerBots
144        ~out        4512 - BEARbots
145        ~out        2927 - Pi Rho Techs
146        ~out        3712 - RoboCats
147        ~out        2942 - Panda Machine
148        ~out        3786 - Chargers
149        ~out        3831 - Da Bears
150        ~out        4304 - Iron Rams
151        ~out        4461 - Ramen


Mr V 17-03-2015 01:35

Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2015
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by SoftwareBug2.0 (Post 1458447)
Now that there are just two weeks of competition left before the district championship I thought it might be interesting to see how the field was shaping up. I did this last year as well: http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...d.php?t=128388

I'm using the same methodology as before. The same caveats apply:
-This is not official in any way
-This does not take into account chairman's award winners
-This does not take into account rookie points
-Assumes that everyone who's invited will attend

Last year's predictions turned out to be pretty good, one new thing to keep in mind this year is that there are more events late in the schedule. Last year's predictions were made with 1 and 2 weeks remaining, which was 1 and 3 events remaining, respectively. As of now there are two weeks of competition remaining and 4 events left.

Key
Code:

in=will have enough points to make it in
out=won't make it
~in=probably going to have enough points
~out=probably won't have enough points
bubble=could easily go either way

Code:

Best-case points to make it to district cmp: 37
Worst-case points to make it to district cmp: 106
Best estimate: 62
{'bubble': 79, 'out': 11, '~in': 27, '~out': 31, 'in': 4}
0        in        1983 - Skunk Works Robotics
1        in        1318 - Issaquah Robotics Society
2        in        2471 - Team Mean Machine
3        in        2635 - Lake Monsters
4        ~in        4911 - CyberKnights
5        ~in        3663 - CPR - Cedar Park Robotics
6        ~in        2907 - Lion Robotics
7        ~in        2046 - Bear Metal
8        ~in        1540 - Flaming Chickens
9        ~in        2557 - SOTAbots
10        ~in        3674 - 4-H Clover Bots
11        ~in        2930 - Glacier Peak Sonic Squirrels
12        ~in        5468 - Retro-bots
13        ~in        3826 - SkyNet Robotics North West
14        ~in        4918 - The Roboctopi
15        ~in        4488 - Shockwave
16        ~in        4205 - ROBOCUBS
17        ~in        2605 - Sehome Seamonsters
18        ~in        2550 - Skynet
19        ~in        2522 - Royal Robotics
20        ~in        1595 - Dragons
21        ~in        1510 - Wildcats
22        ~in        3586 - Pride in the Tribe-Caveman Rob...
23        ~in        4980 - Canine Crusaders
24        ~in        3218 - Panther Robotics
25        ~in        4132 - Scotbots
26        ~in        3238 - Cyborg Ferrets
27        ~in        492 - Titan Robotics Club
28        ~in        948 - NRG (Newport Robotics Group)
29        ~out        2733 - Pigmice
30        ~in        2147 - CHUCK
31        ~in        1425 - Error Code Xero
32        bubble        3574 - HIGH-TEKERZ
33        ~out        4043 - NerdHerd
34        bubble        5683 - RAVE
35        bubble        5748 - Adna Pirates
36        bubble        5111 - SaxonBots
37        bubble        3789 - On Track Robotics
38        ~out        1294 - Top Gun
39        ~out        2928 - Viking Robotics
40        bubble        4450 - Olympia Robotics Federation
41        bubble        2521 - SERT
42        ~out        2976 - Spartabots
43        bubble        5495 - Aluminati
44        bubble        955 - CV Robotics
45        ~out        4051 - Sabin-Sharks
46        bubble        2915 - Riverdale Robotics/Pandamonium
47        ~out        2811 - StormBots
48        bubble        4915 - Spartronics
49        bubble        4469 - R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial In...
50        bubble        3024 - My Favorite Team
51        ~out        753 - High Desert Droids
52        bubble        4513 - Circuit Breakers
53        bubble        2990 - Hotwire
54        ~out        3220 - Mechanics of Mayhem
55        bubble        3049 - BremerTron
56        bubble        3787 - Wild Robotocats
57        bubble        3221 - KM Royals
58        bubble        3681 - Robo-Raiders
59        bubble        3711 - Iron Mustang
60        bubble        5450 - Intergalactic Order of Robots
61        bubble        997 - Spartan Robotics
62        bubble        3693 - GearHead Pirates
63        bubble        4061 - SciBorgs
64        ~out        2903 - NeoBots
65        bubble        2093 - Bowtie Brigade
66        out        4662 - Tribal Tech
67        bubble        3393 - Horns of Havoc
68        bubble        4654 - Mountaineers
69        bubble        2555 - RoboRams
70        bubble        2910 - Jack in the Bot
71        bubble        1778 - Chill Out..!
72        out        4180 - Iron Riders
73        bubble        4608 - Duct Tape Warriors
74        bubble        2149 - CV Bearbots
75        out        2411 - Rebel @lliance
76        bubble        957 - SWARM
77        bubble        3219 - TREAD
78        out        2660 - Pengbots
79        bubble        2944 - Titanium Tigers
80        bubble        4057 - Klamath Basin Robotics
81        bubble        488 - Team XBot
82        bubble        949 - Wolverine Robotics
83        bubble        3588 - the Talon
84        bubble        5779 - CB Tech
85        out        3673 - C.Y.B.O.R.G. Seagulls
86        bubble        3968 - Higher Voltage
87        bubble        4127 - LoggerBots
88        bubble        956 - Eagle Cybertechnology
89        bubble        360 - The Revolution
90        bubble        4060 - S.W.A.G.
91        bubble        3268 - Vahallabots
92        bubble        2923 - Aggies
93        bubble        3812 - Bits & Bots
94        out        4542 - Titanium Talons
95        out        3636 - Generals
96        bubble        2906 - Sentinel Prime Robotics
97        bubble        3237 - Bionic Braves
98        bubble        3876 - Mabton LugNutz
99        bubble        1359 - Scalawags
100        out        4683 - Full-metal Robotics
101        bubble        2192 - YAK Attack
102        bubble        2412 - Robototes
103        bubble        4089 - Stealth Robotics
104        bubble        2374 - Crusader Bots
105        bubble        4681 - Murphy's law
106        bubble        4125 - Confidential
107        out        4173 - Bulldogs
108        bubble        2980 - The Whidbey Island Wild Cats
109        bubble        2929 - JAGBOTS
110        bubble        4120 - Jagwires
111        bubble        3781 - Cardinal 4-H Robotics
112        bubble        1432 - Metal Beavers
113        bubble        4309 - 4-H Botsmiths
114        out        3131 - Gladiators
115        bubble        2517 - Green Wrenches
116        bubble        4077 - M*A*S*H
117        bubble        4726 - Robo Dynasty
118        bubble        3576 - Clover Park High School Warrio...
119        bubble        847 - PHRED
120        ~out        5497 - Foxes
121        bubble        1258 - SeaBot
122        bubble        4030 - NullPointerException
123        bubble        4692 - Metal Mallards
124        out        1571 - Error404
125        bubble        1899 - Saints Robotics
126        bubble        4082 - Ranching Robots
127        ~out        5198 - RoboKnight Force
128        ~out        5295 - Aldernating Current
129        bubble        4579 - RoboEagles
130        bubble        3223 - RetroBotics
131        bubble        3192 - Tiger Bytes
132        ~out        5588 - Holy Names Academy
133        bubble        4682 - Brave Bots
134        bubble        4110 - DEEP SPACE NINERS
135        ~out        4131 - Iron Patriots
136        ~out        4495 - Tigers
137        ~out        4104 - Blackhawks
138        ~out        2002 - Tualatin Robotics
139        ~out        3070 - Team Pronto
140        ~out        2148 - Mechaknights
141        ~out        3575 - Okanogan FFA Redneck 2.0
142        ~out        3684 - Electric Eagles
143        ~out        5085 - LakerBots
144        ~out        4512 - BEARbots
145        ~out        2927 - Pi Rho Techs
146        ~out        3712 - RoboCats
147        ~out        2942 - Panda Machine
148        ~out        3786 - Chargers
149        ~out        3831 - Da Bears
150        ~out        4304 - Iron Rams
151        ~out        4461 - Ramen


There are still 7 teams in the PNW that have not played their first event so they can not really be considered out at this point.

SoftwareBug2.0 17-03-2015 03:23

Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2015
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr V (Post 1458624)
There are still 7 teams in the PNW that have not played their first event so they can not really be considered out at this point.

Yeah, it may be a bit pessimistic about the odds for teams that haven't competed at all yet. It is listing them as "~out" rather than "out" though. And with room for only 64 out of 151 teams most won't make the cut.

Navid Shafa 17-03-2015 04:33

Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2015
 
Thank you for doing this again, I always appreciate your statistical anyalses.

InFlight 17-03-2015 15:46

Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2015
 
The full standing are at located at http://frc-districtrankings.usfirst.org/PNW

There are 38 teams with 35 district points or more that still have one more event; so any predictions at his point are going to be a very rough guess at best.

In the end, somewhere near 70 district points is probably the threshold.

The current top 18 and the District Chairmen's Award Winners (below) are the only sure thing at this point

1540 Oregon City
2557 Auburn Mountainview
2930 Glacier Peak
4125 West Valley
2930 Glacier Peak
3574 Wilsonville
2980 Mount Vernon

SoftwareBug2.0 22-03-2015 12:41

Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2015
 
Here's an updated projection after this past week's events. There are now 2 district events remaining. This uses is the same methodology as before.
Code:

Best-case points to make it to district cmp: 44
Worst-case points to make it to district cmp: 89
Best estimate: 54
{'bubble': 44, 'out': 40, '~in': 33, '~out': 20, 'in': 15}
0      in      1983 - Skunk Works Robotics
1      in      4488 - Shockwave
2      in      1318 - Issaquah Robotics Society
3      in      1595 - Dragons
4      in      2471 - Team Mean Machine
5      in      2635 - Lake Monsters
6      in      3238 - Cyborg Ferrets
7      in      4061 - SciBorgs
8      in      4911 - CyberKnights
9      in      3663 - CPR - Cedar Park Robotics
10      in      2907 - Lion Robotics
11      in      2046 - Bear Metal
12      in      5111 - SaxonBots
13      in      1540 - Flaming Chickens
14      in      2557 - SOTAbots
15      ~in    4450 - Olympia Robotics Federation
16      ~in    3674 - 4-H Clover Bots
17      ~in    2930 - Glacier Peak Sonic Squirrels
18      ~in    5468 - Retro-bots
19      ~in    3711 - Iron Mustang
20      ~in    492 - Titan Robotics Club
21      ~in    3826 - SkyNet Robotics North West
22      ~in    4918 - The Roboctopi
23      ~in    2147 - CHUCK
24      ~in    5779 - CB Tech
25      ~in    4205 - ROBOCUBS
26      ~in    2605 - Sehome Seamonsters
27      ~in    2550 - Skynet
28      ~in    3588 - the Talon
29      ~in    2522 - Royal Robotics
30      ~in    2944 - Titanium Tigers
31      ~in    4513 - Circuit Breakers
32      ~in    1510 - Wildcats
33      ~in    3586 - Pride in the Tribe-Caveman Rob...
34      ~in    4980 - Canine Crusaders
35      ~in    2149 - CV Bearbots
36      ~in    3218 - Panther Robotics
37      ~in    4132 - Scotbots
38      ~in    3789 - On Track Robotics
39      ~in    948 - NRG (Newport Robotics Group)
40      ~in    4608 - Duct Tape Warriors
41      ~in    4125 - Confidential
42      ~in    2733 - Pigmice
43      ~in    4915 - Spartronics
44      ~in    3787 - Wild Robotocats
45      ~in    1425 - Error Code Xero
46      bubble  5495 - Aluminati
47      ~in    3574 - HIGH-TEKERZ
48      ~out    4043 - NerdHerd
49      bubble  5683 - RAVE
50      ~out    3812 - Bits & Bots
51      ~out    3681 - Robo-Raiders
52      ~out    2910 - Jack in the Bot
53      bubble  5748 - Adna Pirates
54      ~out    2555 - RoboRams
55      ~out    1778 - Chill Out..!
56      ~out    3968 - Higher Voltage
57      ~out    1294 - Top Gun
58      ~out    2928 - Viking Robotics
59      ~in    2521 - SERT
60      ~out    3693 - GearHead Pirates
61      ~out    2976 - Spartabots
62      ~out    488 - Team XBot
63      bubble  955 - CV Robotics
64      ~out    4051 - Sabin-Sharks
65      bubble  2915 - Riverdale Robotics/Pandamonium
66      out    2811 - StormBots
67      out    4654 - Mountaineers
68      bubble  4469 - R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial In...
69      out    4309 - 4-H Botsmiths
70      bubble  3024 - My Favorite Team
71      out    753 - High Desert Droids
72      out    2923 - Aggies
73      bubble  2990 - Hotwire
74      out    3220 - Mechanics of Mayhem
75      bubble  3049 - BremerTron
76      out    949 - Wolverine Robotics
77      out    2412 - Robototes
78      out    4681 - Murphy's law
79      bubble  3221 - KM Royals
80      out    3876 - Mabton LugNutz
81      bubble  5450 - Intergalactic Order of Robots
82      bubble  997 - Spartan Robotics
83      out    4089 - Stealth Robotics
84      out    3268 - Vahallabots
85      out    2903 - NeoBots
86      bubble  2093 - Bowtie Brigade
87      out    4662 - Tribal Tech
88      bubble  3393 - Horns of Havoc
89      out    4726 - Robo Dynasty
90      out    4180 - Iron Riders
91      out    4082 - Ranching Robots
92      out    2411 - Rebel @lliance
93      bubble  957 - SWARM
94      bubble  3219 - TREAD
95      out    2660 - Pengbots
96      bubble  4057 - Klamath Basin Robotics
97      out    3673 - C.Y.B.O.R.G. Seagulls
98      bubble  4127 - LoggerBots
99      bubble  956 - Eagle Cybertechnology
100    bubble  360 - The Revolution
101    bubble  5085 - LakerBots
102    bubble  4060 - S.W.A.G.
103    out    4542 - Titanium Talons
104    out    4120 - Jagwires
105    out    3636 - Generals
106    bubble  2906 - Sentinel Prime Robotics
107    bubble  3237 - Bionic Braves
108    bubble  1359 - Scalawags
109    out    4683 - Full-metal Robotics
110    bubble  5588 - Holy Names Academy
111    bubble  2192 - YAK Attack
112    bubble  2374 - Crusader Bots
113    out    3223 - RetroBotics
114    out    4495 - Tigers
115    out    4030 - NullPointerException
116    out    4173 - Bulldogs
117    out    4077 - M*A*S*H
118    bubble  2980 - The Whidbey Island Wild Cats
119    bubble  2929 - JAGBOTS
120    bubble  3781 - Cardinal 4-H Robotics
121    out    4512 - BEARbots
122    out    2148 - Mechaknights
123    out    3070 - Team Pronto
124    out    4682 - Brave Bots
125    out    4131 - Iron Patriots
126    bubble  1432 - Metal Beavers
127    out    3131 - Gladiators
128    out    4104 - Blackhawks
129    out    5295 - Aldernating Current
130    bubble  2517 - Green Wrenches
131    bubble  3576 - Clover Park High School Warrio...
132    bubble  847 - PHRED
133    ~out    5497 - Foxes
134    bubble  1258 - SeaBot
135    bubble  3786 - Chargers
136    bubble  4692 - Metal Mallards
137    out    1571 - Error404
138    bubble  1899 - Saints Robotics
139    out    3712 - RoboCats
140    ~out    5198 - RoboKnight Force
141    out    3575 - Okanogan FFA Redneck 2.0
142    bubble  4579 - RoboEagles
143    bubble  4461 - Ramen
144    bubble  3192 - Tiger Bytes
145    bubble  4304 - Iron Rams
146    bubble  4110 - DEEP SPACE NINERS
147    ~out    2002 - Tualatin Robotics
148    ~out    2942 - Panda Machine
149    ~out    3684 - Electric Eagles
150    ~out    2927 - Pi Rho Techs
151    ~out    3831 - Da Bears


Navid Shafa 22-03-2015 12:46

Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2015
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by SoftwareBug2.0 (Post 1460596)
Here's an updated projection after this past week's events.

Shorewood is still in progress today.

InFlight 22-03-2015 13:57

Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2015
 
There are two chairmans well below the cut line, so 62 spots today. There are 14 teams likely to be bracket busters with their final week score as well. If you assume some typical qual, selection, and 5 points for a semi win or award you would have a very different looking projection. There are some of the ~in teams with a second event next week that are pretty much locks at this point as well.

SoftwareBug2.0 22-03-2015 18:34

Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2015
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Navid Shafa (Post 1460598)
Shorewood is still in progress today.

Oh, intereting. I assumed that once the leaderboard page quit saying "in progress" all the numbers were there. Evidentely that doesn't, so I'll have to manually check that the scores are in from here on out.

Navid Shafa 23-03-2015 00:36

Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2015
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by SoftwareBug2.0 (Post 1460707)
Oh, intereting. I assumed that once the leaderboard page quit saying "in progress" all the numbers were there. Evidentely that doesn't, so I'll have to manually check that the scores are in from here on out.

Sorry to bug you, but do you have an update now that Shorewood is finished?

Thanks,
Navid

SoftwareBug2.0 23-03-2015 00:59

Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2015
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Navid Shafa (Post 1460871)
Sorry to bug you, but do you have an update now that Shorewood is finished?

Thanks,
Navid

Here we go by the same methodology:
Code:

Best-case points to make it to district cmp: 47
Worst-case points to make it to district cmp: 90
Best estimate: 62
{'bubble': 45, 'out': 38, '~in': 31, '~out': 21, 'in': 17}
0      in      1983 - Skunk Works Robotics
1      in      4488 - Shockwave
2      in      1318 - Issaquah Robotics Society
3      in      1595 - Dragons
4      in      2471 - Team Mean Machine
5      in      492 - Titan Robotics Club
6      in      2635 - Lake Monsters
7      in      3238 - Cyborg Ferrets
8      in      4061 - SciBorgs
9      in      4911 - CyberKnights
10      in      3663 - CPR - Cedar Park Robotics
11      in      2907 - Lion Robotics
12      in      3787 - Wild Robotocats
13      in      2046 - Bear Metal
14      in      5111 - SaxonBots
15      in      1540 - Flaming Chickens
16      in      4915 - Spartronics
17      ~in    2557 - SOTAbots
18      ~in    4450 - Olympia Robotics Federation
19      ~in    3674 - 4-H Clover Bots
20      ~in    2930 - Glacier Peak Sonic Squirrels
21      ~in    5468 - Retro-bots
22      ~in    3711 - Iron Mustang
23      ~in    3826 - SkyNet Robotics North West
24      ~in    4918 - The Roboctopi
25      ~in    2147 - CHUCK
26      ~in    5779 - CB Tech
27      ~in    3968 - Higher Voltage
28      ~in    4654 - Mountaineers
29      ~in    4205 - ROBOCUBS
30      ~in    2605 - Sehome Seamonsters
31      ~in    2550 - Skynet
32      ~in    3588 - the Talon
33      ~in    2522 - Royal Robotics
34      ~in    2944 - Titanium Tigers
35      ~in    5495 - Aluminati
36      ~in    4513 - Circuit Breakers
37      ~in    1510 - Wildcats
38      ~in    3586 - Pride in the Tribe-Caveman Rob...
39      ~in    4980 - Canine Crusaders
40      ~in    2149 - CV Bearbots
41      ~in    1778 - Chill Out..!
42      ~in    3218 - Panther Robotics
43      ~in    488 - Team XBot
44      ~in    4132 - Scotbots
45      ~in    4681 - Murphy's law
46      ~out    3789 - On Track Robotics
47      ~in    948 - NRG (Newport Robotics Group)
48      ~out    4608 - Duct Tape Warriors
49      ~out    4125 - Confidential
50      ~out    2733 - Pigmice
51      ~out    2555 - RoboRams
52      ~in    1425 - Error Code Xero
53      ~out    2412 - Robototes
54      bubble  3574 - HIGH TEKERZ
55      ~out    4043 - NerdHerd
56      bubble  5683 - RAVE
57      ~out    3812 - Bits & Bots
58      ~out    3681 - Robo-Raiders
59      ~out    949 - Wolverine Robotics
60      ~out    2910 - Jack in the Bot
61      bubble  5748 - Adna Pirates
62      ~out    4089 - Stealth Robotics
63      ~out    1294 - Top Gun
64      ~out    2928 - Viking Robotics
65      bubble  2521 - SERT
66      out    3693 - GearHead Pirates
67      out    2976 - Spartabots
68      bubble  955 - CV Robotics
69      out    4051 - Sabin-Sharks
70      bubble  2915 - Riverdale Robotics/Pandamonium
71      out    4682 - Brave Bots
72      out    2811 - StormBots
73      bubble  4469 - R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial In...
74      out    4309 - 4-H Botsmiths
75      bubble  3024 - My Favorite Team
76      out    753 - High Desert Droids
77      out    2923 - Aggies
78      bubble  2990 - Hotwire
79      out    3220 - Mechanics of Mayhem
80      bubble  3049 - BremerTron
81      bubble  3221 - KM Royals
82      out    3876 - Mabton LugNutz
83      bubble  5588 - Holy Names Academy
84      bubble  5450 - Intergalactic Order of Robots
85      bubble  997 - Spartan Robotics
86      out    2903 - NeoBots
87      bubble  2093 - Bowtie Brigade
88      out    4662 - Tribal Tech
89      bubble  3393 - Horns of Havoc
90      out    3268 - Vahallabots
91      out    4726 - Robo Dynasty
92      out    4180 - Iron Riders
93      out    4082 - Ranching Robots
94      out    2411 - Rebel @lliance
95      out    3070 - Team Pronto
96      bubble  957 - SWARM
97      bubble  3219 - TREAD
98      out    4030 - NullPointerException
99      out    2660 - Pengbots
100    bubble  4057 - Klamath Basin Robotics
101    out    3673 - C.Y.B.O.R.G. Seagulls
102    out    4512 - BEARbots
103    bubble  4127 - LoggerBots
104    bubble  956 - Eagle Cybertechnology
105    bubble  360 - The Revolution
106    bubble  5085 - LakerBots
107    bubble  4060 - S.W.A.G.
108    out    4542 - Titanium Talons
109    out    4120 - Jagwires
110    out    3636 - Generals
111    bubble  2906 - Sentinel Prime Robotics
112    bubble  3237 - Bionic Braves
113    bubble  1359 - Scalawags
114    out    4683 - Full-metal Robotics
115    bubble  2192 - YAK Attack
116    bubble  2374 - Crusader Bots
117    out    3223 - RetroBotics
118    bubble  4461 - Ramen
119    out    4495 - Tigers
120    out    4077 - M*A*S*H
121    out    4173 - Bulldogs
122    bubble  2980 - The Whidbey Island Wild Cats
123    bubble  2929 - JAGBOTS
124    bubble  3781 - Cardinal 4-H Robotics
125    out    2148 - Mechaknights
126    out    4131 - Iron Patriots
127    bubble  4304 - Iron Rams
128    bubble  1432 - Metal Beavers
129    out    3131 - Gladiators
130    out    4104 - Blackhawks
131    out    5295 - Aldernating Current
132    bubble  2517 - Green Wrenches
133    bubble  3576 - Clover Park High School Warrio...
134    bubble  847 - PHRED
135    ~out    5497 - Foxes
136    bubble  1258 - SeaBot
137    bubble  3786 - Chargers
138    bubble  4692 - Metal Mallards
139    out    1571 - Error404
140    bubble  1899 - Saints Robotics
141    out    3712 - RoboCats
142    ~out    5198 - Knight Tech
143    out    3575 - Okanogan FFA Aggies
144    bubble  4579 - RoboEagles
145    bubble  3192 - Tiger Bytes
146    bubble  4110 - DEEP SPACE NINERS
147    ~out    2002 - Tualatin Robotics
148    ~out    2942 - Panda Machine
149    ~out    3684 - Electric Eagles
150    ~out    2927 - Pi Rho Techs
151    ~out    3831 - Da Bears

If we instead were to use InFlight's suggestion to look at it like a 62 team event due to chairman's winners who wouldn't make it based on points, we would get this:

Code:

Best-case points to make it to district cmp: 49
Worst-case points to make it to district cmp: 92
Best estimate: 63
{'bubble': 46, 'out': 41, '~in': 31, '~out': 18, 'in': 16}
0      in      1983 - Skunk Works Robotics
1      in      4488 - Shockwave
2      in      1318 - Issaquah Robotics Society
3      in      1595 - Dragons
4      in      2471 - Team Mean Machine
5      in      492 - Titan Robotics Club
6      in      2635 - Lake Monsters
7      in      3238 - Cyborg Ferrets
8      in      4061 - SciBorgs
9      in      4911 - CyberKnights
10      in      3663 - CPR - Cedar Park Robotics
11      in      2907 - Lion Robotics
12      in      3787 - Wild Robotocats
13      in      2046 - Bear Metal
14      in      5111 - SaxonBots
15      in      1540 - Flaming Chickens
16      ~in    4915 - Spartronics
17      ~in    2557 - SOTAbots
18      ~in    4450 - Olympia Robotics Federation
19      ~in    3674 - 4-H Clover Bots
20      ~in    2930 - Glacier Peak Sonic Squirrels
21      ~in    5468 - Retro-bots
22      ~in    3711 - Iron Mustang
23      ~in    3826 - SkyNet Robotics North West
24      ~in    4918 - The Roboctopi
25      ~in    2147 - CHUCK
26      ~in    5779 - CB Tech
27      ~in    3968 - Higher Voltage
28      ~in    4654 - Mountaineers
29      ~in    4205 - ROBOCUBS
30      ~in    2605 - Sehome Seamonsters
31      ~in    2550 - Skynet
32      ~in    3588 - the Talon
33      ~in    2522 - Royal Robotics
34      ~in    2944 - Titanium Tigers
35      ~in    5495 - Aluminati
36      ~in    4513 - Circuit Breakers
37      ~in    1510 - Wildcats
38      ~in    3586 - Pride in the Tribe-Caveman Rob...
39      ~in    4980 - Canine Crusaders
40      ~in    2149 - CV Bearbots
41      ~in    1778 - Chill Out..!
42      ~in    3218 - Panther Robotics
43      ~in    488 - Team XBot
44      ~in    4132 - Scotbots
45      bubble  4681 - Murphy's law
46      ~out    3789 - On Track Robotics
47      ~in    948 - NRG (Newport Robotics Group)
48      ~out    4608 - Duct Tape Warriors
49      ~out    4125 - Confidential
50      ~out    2733 - Pigmice
51      ~out    2555 - RoboRams
52      ~in    1425 - Error Code Xero
53      ~out    2412 - Robototes
54      bubble  3574 - HIGH TEKERZ
55      ~out    4043 - NerdHerd
56      bubble  5683 - RAVE
57      ~out    3812 - Bits & Bots
58      ~out    3681 - Robo-Raiders
59      ~out    949 - Wolverine Robotics
60      ~out    2910 - Jack in the Bot
61      bubble  5748 - Adna Pirates
62      out    4089 - Stealth Robotics
63      out    1294 - Top Gun
64      out    2928 - Viking Robotics
65      bubble  2521 - SERT
66      out    3693 - GearHead Pirates
67      out    2976 - Spartabots
68      bubble  955 - CV Robotics
69      out    4051 - Sabin-Sharks
70      bubble  2915 - Riverdale Robotics/Pandamonium
71      out    4682 - Brave Bots
72      out    2811 - StormBots
73      bubble  4469 - R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial In...
74      out    4309 - 4-H Botsmiths
75      bubble  3024 - My Favorite Team
76      out    753 - High Desert Droids
77      out    2923 - Aggies
78      bubble  2990 - Hotwire
79      out    3220 - Mechanics of Mayhem
80      bubble  3049 - BremerTron
81      bubble  3221 - KM Royals
82      out    3876 - Mabton LugNutz
83      bubble  5588 - Holy Names Academy
84      bubble  5450 - Intergalactic Order of Robots
85      bubble  997 - Spartan Robotics
86      out    2903 - NeoBots
87      bubble  2093 - Bowtie Brigade
88      out    4662 - Tribal Tech
89      bubble  3393 - Horns of Havoc
90      out    3268 - Vahallabots
91      out    4726 - Robo Dynasty
92      out    4180 - Iron Riders
93      out    4082 - Ranching Robots
94      out    2411 - Rebel @lliance
95      out    3070 - Team Pronto
96      bubble  957 - SWARM
97      bubble  3219 - TREAD
98      out    4030 - NullPointerException
99      out    2660 - Pengbots
100    bubble  4057 - Klamath Basin Robotics
101    out    3673 - C.Y.B.O.R.G. Seagulls
102    out    4512 - BEARbots
103    bubble  4127 - LoggerBots
104    bubble  956 - Eagle Cybertechnology
105    bubble  360 - The Revolution
106    bubble  5085 - LakerBots
107    bubble  4060 - S.W.A.G.
108    out    4542 - Titanium Talons
109    out    4120 - Jagwires
110    out    3636 - Generals
111    bubble  2906 - Sentinel Prime Robotics
112    bubble  3237 - Bionic Braves
113    bubble  1359 - Scalawags
114    out    4683 - Full-metal Robotics
115    bubble  2192 - YAK Attack
116    bubble  2374 - Crusader Bots
117    out    3223 - RetroBotics
118    bubble  4461 - Ramen
119    out    4495 - Tigers
120    out    4077 - M*A*S*H
121    out    4173 - Bulldogs
122    bubble  2980 - The Whidbey Island Wild Cats
123    bubble  2929 - JAGBOTS
124    bubble  3781 - Cardinal 4-H Robotics
125    out    2148 - Mechaknights
126    out    4131 - Iron Patriots
127    bubble  4304 - Iron Rams
128    bubble  1432 - Metal Beavers
129    out    3131 - Gladiators
130    out    4104 - Blackhawks
131    out    5295 - Aldernating Current
132    bubble  2517 - Green Wrenches
133    bubble  3576 - Clover Park High School Warrio...
134    bubble  847 - PHRED
135    ~out    5497 - Foxes
136    bubble  1258 - SeaBot
137    bubble  3786 - Chargers
138    bubble  4692 - Metal Mallards
139    out    1571 - Error404
140    bubble  1899 - Saints Robotics
141    out    3712 - RoboCats
142    ~out    5198 - Knight Tech
143    out    3575 - Okanogan FFA Aggies
144    bubble  4579 - RoboEagles
145    bubble  3192 - Tiger Bytes
146    bubble  4110 - DEEP SPACE NINERS
147    ~out    2002 - Tualatin Robotics
148    ~out    2942 - Panda Machine
149    ~out    3684 - Electric Eagles
150    ~out    2927 - Pi Rho Techs
151    ~out    3831 - Da Bears


SoftwareBug2.0 29-03-2015 01:42

Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2015
 
Since the FRC website has the results of who has qualified now (http://frc-districtrankings.usfirst.org/PNW) it's time for some meta-analysis. Here's how the predictions stacked up:

March 16 Predictions:
Code:

Predicted        Actual In        Actual Out
bubble                32                47
in                4                0
out                0                11
~in                27                0
~out                1                30

March 22 Predictions:
Code:

Predicted        Actual In        Actual Out
bubble                16                29
in                17                0
out                0                38
~in                30                1
~out                1                20


InFlight 29-03-2015 09:36

Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2015
 
Between the registration / hotel costs and the really long driving distance for some of the Oregon teams there will be some declines. I would think the next three or four teams may get a last minute chance to attend.

Navid Shafa 31-03-2015 19:04

Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2015
 
I know the DCMP is a whole different beast (especially with triple the points), but any projections on what you think the point cutoff will be for World's?

Also, it was nice to finally meet you in person Eric! Glad to see your team again, I've always enjoyed playing with you guys in the past.

SoftwareBug2.0 01-04-2015 02:22

Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2015
 
It was nice to meet you as well. I always like seeing what 360 comes up with and congratulations on the win.

I'm afraid that I haven't done any work on projecting the cutoff for Worlds. My gut is telling me that with with triple the points anything is possible but I don't really know.


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