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PNW District Championship Projections 2015
Now that there are just two weeks of competition left before the district championship I thought it might be interesting to see how the field was shaping up. I did this last year as well: http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...d.php?t=128388
I'm using the same methodology as before. The same caveats apply: -This is not official in any way -This does not take into account chairman's award winners -This does not take into account rookie points -Assumes that everyone who's invited will attend Last year's predictions turned out to be pretty good, one new thing to keep in mind this year is that there are more events late in the schedule. Last year's predictions were made with 1 and 2 weeks remaining, which was 1 and 3 events remaining, respectively. As of now there are two weeks of competition remaining and 4 events left. Key Code:
in=will have enough points to make it inCode:
Best-case points to make it to district cmp: 37 |
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Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2015
Thank you for doing this again, I always appreciate your statistical anyalses.
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Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2015
The full standing are at located at http://frc-districtrankings.usfirst.org/PNW
There are 38 teams with 35 district points or more that still have one more event; so any predictions at his point are going to be a very rough guess at best. In the end, somewhere near 70 district points is probably the threshold. The current top 18 and the District Chairmen's Award Winners (below) are the only sure thing at this point 1540 Oregon City 2557 Auburn Mountainview 2930 Glacier Peak 4125 West Valley 2930 Glacier Peak 3574 Wilsonville 2980 Mount Vernon |
Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2015
Here's an updated projection after this past week's events. There are now 2 district events remaining. This uses is the same methodology as before.
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Best-case points to make it to district cmp: 44 |
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There are two chairmans well below the cut line, so 62 spots today. There are 14 teams likely to be bracket busters with their final week score as well. If you assume some typical qual, selection, and 5 points for a semi win or award you would have a very different looking projection. There are some of the ~in teams with a second event next week that are pretty much locks at this point as well.
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Thanks, Navid |
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Best-case points to make it to district cmp: 47Code:
Best-case points to make it to district cmp: 49 |
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Since the FRC website has the results of who has qualified now (http://frc-districtrankings.usfirst.org/PNW) it's time for some meta-analysis. Here's how the predictions stacked up:
March 16 Predictions: Code:
Predicted Actual In Actual OutCode:
Predicted Actual In Actual Out |
Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2015
Between the registration / hotel costs and the really long driving distance for some of the Oregon teams there will be some declines. I would think the next three or four teams may get a last minute chance to attend.
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Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2015
I know the DCMP is a whole different beast (especially with triple the points), but any projections on what you think the point cutoff will be for World's?
Also, it was nice to finally meet you in person Eric! Glad to see your team again, I've always enjoyed playing with you guys in the past. |
Re: PNW District Championship Projections 2015
It was nice to meet you as well. I always like seeing what 360 comes up with and congratulations on the win.
I'm afraid that I haven't done any work on projecting the cutoff for Worlds. My gut is telling me that with with triple the points anything is possible but I don't really know. |
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