Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

There's no way the 1711, 1711, 1711, 1711 alliance would lose to the 1711, 1711, 1711, 1711 alliance. 1711 is just too good at stacking and 1711 would definitely beat 1711 to the cans every time. Unless 1711 missed the can, then maybe 1711 and 1711 would have a chance.
I don't think 1711, 1711, and 1711 would be able to get together in Tesla. And 1711 as a third pick in Hopper? Not even possible. They're more likely to get a robot like 1711 on the backside of the draft than 1711.

Be a little more realistic with your predictions Jaywalker1711.

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

Dang, that's more clones than Melee's character list.
Also, this is why I'm not making predictions of the "what 4 robots will win each division" variety.

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

It is impossible to accurately predict alliances, let alone the winning ones. Instead of listing off random hypotheticals, we should do more in-depth analysis of the teams! Or we could just wait...

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

Blasphemy! This is FRC we must over analyze everything!

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

Still to their advantage to get the other fastest grabber, they're not racing the rest of their division anymore, they're racing the other division winners, 1114 would have to comfortably have the fastest most reliable grabber in the world to feel safe with no other grabbers on their alliance, if they ever don't go 5 and 5 with the cans they lose that match immediately, that's a big risk to take for an alliance that puts up 8 stacks just for show.

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

Somebody's likely going to break their canburglar during a war on the step well before the finals, and I wouldn't be suprised if we see some pretty bloody battles in elims and Einstein over those cans. I propose an over-under of 4 canburglars broken in the elims as a whole, maybe more. Will be interesting to watch.

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

My predictions

1. At least 6 alliances on Einstein will have a Michigan team
2. Most of the division champions will be a combination of #1 and #2 teams
3. One of the divisional champions will be made up of a non-obvious combination of robots that hasn't been made before, and could potentially win it all.

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

I suspect there will be a lot more than 4 broken - canburglars are typically light, thin, fast moving things that will be fighting against other light, thin, fast moving things, only fighting with the drivetrain instead of the arm. Not only that, but I'd be surprised if you didn't see them being used in every eliminations round. I suspect overall, there should at least be 2 broken on each field (mind you many of them will be very easy fixes).

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

Will mecanum wheels finally make it to the Einstein carpet this year? That's the real question. ;)

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

I'd love to see that happen, but the logistics involved are just awful. If anything was made, it would have to be right after alliance selections so the alliances are set. Trying to make it so people can pick the alliances before they're picked would be near impossible to organize. You would then either need to put it up online to have people fill out, or bring a dozen printers and start printing as soon as you know you can to hand out to people to fill out.

That being said, if anyone wants to make this happen, I'll help as much as I can.

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

the first person with legitimate strategy

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

I agree. It makes scouting much more valuable, so the whole team, not just the drive team, can feel it has contributed.

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

And someone else suggested 330 on the alliance with two other powerhouses, but who also will be an alliance captain and in the mix.

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

That post was from the "If all the best teams by OPR got on the same alliance" prediction.

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

Top 25 at Champs.

254 The Cheesy Poofs 1400 carson
1114 Simbotics 1387 curie
2056 OP Robotics 1247 galileo
118 Robonauts 1053 newton
1678 Citrus Circuits 993 newton
624 CRyptonite 676 Tesla
2826 Wave Robotics 658 hopper
1986 Team Titanium 498 carver
1023 Bedford Express 469 archimedes
33 Killer Bees 461 hopper
1325 Inverse Paradox 431 carson
1690 Orbit 409 galileo
971 Spartan Robotics 389 carver
2338 Gear It Forward 373 archimedes
2122 Team Tators 310 tesla
2085 RoboDogs 298 carson
1756 Argos 295 newton
3683 Team Dave 288 hopper
368 Team Kika Mana 271 carver
1538 The Holy Cows 269 archimedes
469 Las Guerrillas 252 hopper
701 RoboVikes 241 curie
525 Swartdogs 209 galileo
548 Robostangs 199 hopper
3824 HVA RoHAWKtics 191 tesla

118/1678 in Newton seem pretty formidable, especially since they have played together and have the expertise to cheesecake both their 3rd and 4th picks. Whoever gets to Einstein, the competition will be both sublime and intense. Both 254 and 1114 are very strong, and depending how they pick their allies, can be hard to beat. There seems to be a big gap between 1678 (993 QA) and 2826 (658 QA), but it is the strength of the alliance, not the individual top seed that counts. It might actually help to have both your third and 4th picks to be can grabbers, since it possible to sustain damage in a tug-of-war as 971 found out at SVR.

Anyway, it will be fun to watch. Go Teams!

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

So, that's the FRC top 25 five list for the top teams who competed in week 6, so it's missing a few teams (148, 987 and 1730 are some that come to mind). The official top twenty five for the entire season is coming out tonight during the show.

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

I honestly think that this year is the year a PNW team goes to Einstein. I hope it's us but I'd be thrilled to see any PNW team make it. :rolleyes:

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

FRC Top 25 might not be the best way to rank teams due to it being based off of voting rather than stats. A better way to rank would be Max OPR or even Average OPR.

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

There are a couple of teams in the PNW that very much belong in any "Top 25" list - 4488 and 1983 come to mind specifically.... There are also a handful that are strong enough (though may have been a bit inconsistent during the season) that they could potentially disrupt their divisions, depending on how the pairings work out.... 2471, 955, 1318, 2550, 3663, 4061 and 948 come to mind.

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

"Top"

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

Agreed but Team 379 for curie is pretty good also! Iv'e seen their videos. My prediction for Curie is 1114, 379 and 3193

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

Why would 1114 pick 379?

Assuming 1114 is the top captain, why would they not pick 148? I've only just begun to scout and don't know 379 well, but my first impression is that they are a strong feeder station bot - able to put up two full stacks plus a little more during teleop, but nothing more.... There several robots in Curie with that ability - some of which can add some autonomous points and/or center can grabbing....

I'm not criticizing. I'm just wondering if there is something interesting about 379 that I have not seen yet.

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

I think they'll end up with 148 personally, but I can see the benefit in 379. They're a very good robot and if 1114 doesn't want to have to deal with the tether issue of 148 then they might go with them.

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

Got bored sitting home post-surgery, so here it goes!

Archimedes: 1310-503-360
Carson: 254-4488-20
Carver: 1986-368-1768
Curie: 1114-148-1923
Galileo: 2056-1619-2168
Hopper: 2826-987-11
Newton: 1678-118-5188
Tesla: 2481-3476-1323

Don't trust me too much. I sure don't.

Also, way too lazy to do 4th picks and junk.

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

Agreed. If 1114 needed a human player station specialist, 148 would be the most solid choice since it basically splits their sides of the field in half with neither of the two having to cross paths for cans or totes unless 1114 decides to litter the landfill cans. I think 1114's pick might be really hard though if there is can grabbers faster than them. Who they pick will be determined by can grabbing speed as well as the would be captains for the other alliances.

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

1323 will be an awesome second pick that will definitely fly under the radar if no one hypes them.

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

Tether issue? What is the issue you speak of?

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

I see this alliance with a really really nice cheesecake on the 2nd pick.

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

My quote is from Tesla?

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

Oops... My brain was in Curie and I forgot I was not on that thread.

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

I am curious what weight 148 is at after removing Alfred. 1114 could attach their ramp to Robin.

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

nice :D

Regarding 1114's pick, I think the only possible way they would pick 148 is if they can get a stealer on Sideswipe that's competitive on Einstein - aka one of the top dozen or so in the world. An alliance with only 3 bins is not going to go very far at all in playoffs. Simbotics knows this, and is going to pick a binstealer if they don't have one (that can go toe-to-toe with the likes of 548 and 1678). Even if 1114 and 148 can stack faster than any combination in FRC, their stacks are effectively worth a third as much once they've used all their cans (12pts for a 6stack vs 36/42pts). As much as we'd all like to think/believe, those two are not 3x faster than everyone.

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

Nice little discussion. But in the end 1114-148-xxxxx or 148-1114-xxxxx.

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

Nice little discussion, but anyone who understands the can race will just disagree. I'm sure 1114 realizes that making 9 stacks doesn't help when you have 3 cans.

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

Nice little discussion, but we all know one or more of these fields is just going to go brain-dead for alliance selections and someone is going to get a late 3rd robot that's going to take them over the top. Not to mention all of these fields are by default shallow this season, I honestly couldn't tell you how any of this is going to pan out.

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

I can tell you exactly how is going to pan out, the winning alliance in each division will have one of the fastest can grabbers if not two of them.

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

Doesn't a 1114-148 alliance fulfill that description? (assuming 1114 does what we all expect and bring a fast can grabber).

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

Agreed!

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

1114 would have to have *the* fastest can grabber on the planet to justify this alliance. If they ever run into any team that is faster they will only have 3 cans. If they have a back up bot (cheesecake) which I assume they will, then they could get by without picking another can grabber.

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

Willing to bet all eight division winning alliances will include a very fast burglar cheescaked 3rd bot...the question remains, who will have the fastest/most consistent canburglars? And I wonder which winning alliances will have examples of a winning alliance's bot using a top canburglar from another alliance in their division that didn't advance? The ultimate vicarious Einstein experience for some team?

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

After watching 1519, 195, & 2067 destroy the elimination rounds at the New England Championship with an elimination average of 228.43 sometimes only using 3-4 RCs I think some people are making a bigger deal out of the can wars compared to what we will actually see.

Will it be important? Yes.

Do you need the fastest? Maybe not if the rest of your game involves using the other game pieces to their maximum scoring potential.

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

the maximum scoring potential with 3 RCs, without upside-down totes, is 240 points.

An average alliance that puts up 5 capped stacks can beat this eveytime, so getting all RCs means victory in finals

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

True but if you can't assemble those stacks all of those RCs are useless. Believe me our alliance of 237, 501, and 3467 made away with 3-4 RCs in autonomous during the quarter finals and semi finals at NEDCMP and didn't put up scores high enough to beat an alliance with only three. Another alliance at NE champs of 88, 125, and 246 had even faster can arms and didn't make it out of the quarter finals.

Not to mention even if you can drop your arms faster than your opponents it doesn't mean they can't grab on before you drive away and snatch them away from you. We saw that a few times when a team who was fast but didn't have a good grip on the cans was beat out because another team who was slower caught on with a more secure mechanism.

On Einstein where all of the teams are high caliber putting up 2-3+ stacks each the RCs are very valuable and we'll know the winner of the match in the first 2 seconds if someone gets more than two off of the step. I will predict that in several divisions the team with the fastest arms won't make it out of the division and it won't be your ticket to Einstein if you walk in with the fastest.

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

I wouldn't be so sure about that. I imagine some teams have thought up solutions to this problem and implemented them by now.

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

I predict that team 343 (Metal-In-Motion) will beat team 111 (Wildstang) to finally get revenge for the tote game of 2003!!! Wooo hooo..... of course we will both be 3rd or 4th picks, on an awesome alliance, from our respective divisions. Hey....can't a guy dream and have a little fun??? :)

Good luck to all the teams competing in St. Louis and I really hope everybody has a safe trip there and back home.

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

"Picking the fastest burglar" strategy only works through divisions, unless the fastest burglar is in your division. It also depends on whether can wars are deterministic, which at the highest levels may not be so true.

It's interesting that this year, every alliance has a back-up bot to cheesecake throughout division playoffs.

Having two 188pt bots (a robot capable of scoring 188 pts on their own) on an alliance does give you an advantage considering:

- cheesecaking (or any off-the-field improvements)
- the play-off structure
- possible non-deterministic nature of can wars
- blue side advantage

Such an alliance would only need to win two cans to win, and can play with only two robots, or without one of their best robots, and still proceed through division playoffs. If they had blue side advantage, then they would have to play against two burglars who are faster than them in order to lose all four.

Any alliance that plays a final against an alliance that win all four cans and caps 5/6 stacks will lose. On Einstein, besides improving your own mechanisms off-the-field, there's very little you can do.

An 1114/148 alliance, being both great teams and robots, could theoretically cheesecake two incredibly fast burglars, if they need to.

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

I'm not sure where you've been for the last 12 weeks but I believe everyone is in agreement on this one. There literally aren't enough game pieces on the field for you to outscore a team that grabs all 7 can from you and make 5 stacks. That's an 84 point differential you have to make up.

It seems to me that you're conceding that you do need to win at least 2 cans to win the match. Winning the can wars doesn't mean getting all 4, it just means not letting your opponents get at least 3. Of course you can beat the other team if you both get 2 cans. The entire point of the chokehold strategy is to not let that happen.

All it takes is two grabbers faster than you and you just lose every match immediately.
This is the entire point of the whole can race debate, the very debate that you were trying to discount at the beginning of your post.

This is what everyone has been making conjectures about, whether these teams will build good enough can grabbers to justify teaming up. All it takes is one robot that's faster than both of them to make that 1st seed think twice about their pick.

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

I wasn't discounting the importance of the can wars. If I did, it was unintentional and I retract the statement. I also wanted to build on what was said, not disagree with it.

My point was that if one of 1114 and 148 finish first, they can't pick the fastest can grabber if the fastest can grabber is on Carson or Archimedes or wherever. The strategy of picking the fastest can grabber only works in Division eliminations for 7 out of 8 alliances that make it to Einstein, and then will stop working.

The other point is there might not be one fastest can grabber, ie that the difference between two grabbers might be so minuscule that it would be difficult to predict even after two matches head-to-head.

The third is the strategic advantage of being able to outscore an opponent with two cans each. That puts pressure on the other team to secure (as in prevent the opposition from reaching) three cans, which requires (most likely) two good robots, not one. IE the 1114/148 alliance can put their best burglar against the other team's weaker burglar (with blue side advantage), whereas the other alliance has to match up best to best.

The chokehold strategy is having the two fastest burglars in all 800 teams. My contention is that it might not be the case that an alliance can form such a partnership, and it might be easier to engineer a 3rd/4th robots that can compete with at least one of every other alliance's burglars.

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

Sorry I guess that was a misunderstanding on my part, your post made it sound like 1114 + 148 could beat everyone with only 3 cans.

Now I see where your coming from. And yes, I pretty much agree with your thought process here, there really is only 1 fastest grabber, and it's hard to know who it is until you actually race them.

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

One team pretty much everyone is overlooking is team 1714 (M.O.R.E. Robotics). They have a fast four canburglar that they used at Lake Superior regional. Their alliance didn't really use them, unfortunately, but...

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

With all the discussion of fast canburglars, I'm curious as to what the fastest canburglars currently are. I know I heard that 3310 can hook into the can in under a quarter second, but does any other team even come close to that?

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

I don't know their time, but 548 has some crazy fast burglars.

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

1714 has to shoot the gap to get the cans and take quite a long time to real in their arms if they go for 4.

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

We were at a quarter second a few weeks ago. Not going to quote an exact number now but an eighth second is much closer than a quarter.

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

You would have to get the times from their respective teams but 27, 503, 548, and a cheesecake 1711 were among the fastest at MSC.

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

The cheesecake is gone, but we have replaced it with dual canburglars, similar to the cheesecake design, that steal in about 300 milliseconds.

And it should only get faster. We have some sort of delay in our code or communication that is costing us time.

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

Felt like making some off the wall predictions in addition to some of the more likely alliances. so here goes (only gonna do first two robots, after that, it's down to who messes up their scouting or certain niche picks):

Archimedes: 1023 + 2338
Carson: 254 + 4587
Carver: 971 + 368
Curie: 148 + 1114
Galileo: 1619 + 2056
Hopper: 2826 + 987
Newton: 1671 + 118
Tesla: Legitimately no clue...

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

Can we talk about the kind of prophet I am?
148-1114-900, 2826-987-4265,
I also predicted 1690 and 27 would team up.
I've had so much luck this week.

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

Turn that luck into a World Championship.... 1493 pulling for you back in the 518

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

Pretty sure nobody predicted the 254 thing. ): RIP Cheesy Poofs

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

I've not been watching today. Family life takes over sometimes. What happened?

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

The lost in the quarterfinals.

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

As one of their matches ended one of the teams was trying to place a 6 stack with RC and noodle but instead they knocked that over along with another 6 stack with RC and noodle.

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

973 put a stack down at the last second and there was a noodle underneath, it tipped and knocked over another stack. Match two their 3rd bot tipped over and blocked the landfill. Just a series of very unfortunate events and bad luck.

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

We aren't dead you know :)

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

Poofs members aren't required to commit seppuku if they lose? :ahh:

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

Ha yeah. You guys did great this year; that really was unfortunate.

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

I don't think anybody could have predicted this championships. The semifinals were so intense I just lost it. I thought the chess match on Einstein last year was intense, but the can grabber wars and stacking was just unbeatable.

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

It turns out Kevin predicted this year's champs, with the exception of the 3rd pick. We didn't win, but we were finalists! Thanks Kevin, you brought our team far!

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

No need to scout all the teams anymore... I'll just ask you for your prediction and go straight to strategizing for that alliance! ;)

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

3 out of 4 on Curie ain't bad. Got to say though, I didn't see it coming.

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

We made a good run at it, Sean. You were captain of your alliance in the Finals in your division and we (Team 3663) were captain of our alliance in the Finals in Curie. Team 492 made it as a 4th pick to Einstein.

I think it's going to take the PNW's continued presence at World's to have the rest of the teams in the country sit up and take notice. PNW makes up 6% of the active teams in FRC. 12.5% of Captains in divisional Finals were from PNW. PNW doesn't seem to be on their radar much - you (4488) would get a mention here and there but not nearly what your record warranted. The rest of us weren't really mentioned at all - anywhere outside of PNW, that is.

That's okay. We'll just keep showing up and performing.

Great job at World's 4488. You did the PNW proud.

Re: 2015 Champs Predictions
 

NOBODY saw the 118-1678-1671-5012 alliance happening. Frankly I was shocked that 1671 was still available, but hey, I'm not complaining. :rolleyes: