Chief Delphi - 2015 Championship division simulated rankings

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Re: 2015 Championship division simulated rankings

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tottanka (Post 1474060)

So, statistically speaking - it is proven that never in 10,000 years, will 254 not finish 1st in their division. I don't think that would have happened with any other game under the exact same algorithm.

Does anyone know how to run the same algorithm, for say last year, and see how close it is to actual results?

Only if some very rough assumptions hold. It's not guaranteed.

Re: 2015 Championship division simulated rankings

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tottanka (Post 1474060)

I think a more accurate statement would be: if their division played the qualification rounds 10,000 times, 254 would seed first in all of them.

Re: 2015 Championship division simulated rankings

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tottanka (Post 1474060)

Because of the change from W-L to average, it allows the top teams to stay high easier. 1114 in 2008 was similarly dominate (scoring 50% more then the next best team in the division), however in a W-L scenario they wouldn't always seed first (see http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...&postcount=165)

If someone did want to run the same algorithm, the Galileo 2008 schedule is here: http://www2.usfirst.org/2008comp/Eve...eduleQual.html and best OPRs are here: http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...&postcount=152

Re: 2015 Championship division simulated rankings

For kicks and giggles, here is the simulation for the Carson division rerun with the new schedule:

Code:

Division: cars

Teams found: 75

Iterations: 10000

Number        AvgRank        Max        Min

254        1.0        1.0        1.0

1519        2.9238        12.0        2.0

225        3.2303        12.0        2.0

1325        4.6833        18.0        2.0

2085        6.234        23.0        2.0

4488        6.2526        21.0        2.0

67        7.6632        24.0        2.0

85        7.7193        26.0        2.0

1730        9.4748        28.0        2.0

5406        10.9487        32.0        2.0

5254        12.0255        38.0        3.0

4587        12.127        32.0        2.0

3478        13.2271        37.0        3.0

1296        16.084        40.0        3.0

399        17.4508        42.0        5.0

5122        17.8394        41.0        5.0

973        18.2159        41.0        4.0

16        18.674        44.0        5.0

4980        19.0676        42.0        4.0

236        22.354        45.0        6.0

1501        22.3839        45.0        7.0

3604        23.095        49.0        7.0

5338        24.7953        52.0        6.0

60        25.2075        54.0        8.0

3339        25.5461        52.0        8.0

999        27.2118        53.0        9.0

1711        27.5821        56.0        10.0

558        28.4328        62.0        9.0

203        29.5784        60.0        10.0

3547        29.9607        57.0        11.0

1629        30.3261        55.0        10.0

467        31.0024        60.0        10.0

1058        31.6473        59.0        9.0

2471        32.785        59.0        12.0

1511        33.265        66.0        12.0

1510        34.8757        64.0        11.0

2377        37.0282        61.0        13.0

246        38.782        71.0        15.0

1885        38.8871        68.0        14.0

5053        39.0219        67.0        16.0

3506        39.5788        67.0        17.0

4215        43.708        70.0        21.0

3481        44.9965        72.0        20.0

5659        45.4461        74.0        21.0

3946        46.4022        73.0        20.0

20        47.1695        75.0        23.0

2534        48.0525        73.0        22.0

2075        49.9531        74.0        18.0

173        50.0761        75.0        22.0

375        50.4154        73.0        23.0

5510        51.8697        74.0        27.0

2521        51.8814        75.0        26.0

4028        54.6548        75.0        29.0

5416        54.7641        75.0        27.0

1241        54.8783        75.0        27.0

4499        55.5049        75.0        28.0

93        57.2367        75.0        32.0

418        57.4458        75.0        31.0

2905        59.3855        75.0        35.0

5625        60.0594        75.0        30.0

1458        60.5968        75.0        35.0

4818        61.0299        75.0        34.0

5655        61.7911        75.0        35.0

5549        62.3484        75.0        37.0

4574        62.4298        75.0        34.0

2601        62.8756        75.0        36.0

5059        63.1868        75.0        36.0

5719        63.4183        75.0        38.0

3256        67.3898        75.0        41.0

1710        67.797        75.0        42.0

1306        69.3932        75.0        46.0

3880        70.5046        75.0        43.0

2283        71.0979        75.0        48.0

3728        71.4733        75.0        48.0

4953        72.5791        75.0        48.0

This was run with the same obviously naive assumptions made by my initial randomization model. I don't have too much faith in it being terribly accurate, but it is always fun to see what it spits out.

Good luck to everyone tomorrow!

Re: 2015 Championship division simulated rankings

Jeremy,

Are you using excel to do this analysis or spss or something else? If something else can you lets us know? Pretty fun data thanks for sharing?

Re: 2015 Championship division simulated rankings

As mentioned on Gamesense, here's a spreadsheet comparing the simulated rankings against the actual rankings:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...z-Mx20/pubhtml

Re: 2015 Championship division simulated rankings

Pretty cool. We were simulated to come in 4th (3.8) and actually did come in 4th.