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-   -   Proposal for the 2 Championship format (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showthread.php?t=137096)

Lil' Lavery 07-05-2015 09:30

Re: Proposal for the 2 Championship format
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Citrus Dad (Post 1480288)
I would add 5136 who was on our alliance last year, but this is a VERY short list given the hundreds of teams that have qualified. General policies have to be made for general situations, not for exceptions. This is why we require vaccinating the general population even though we know a few people will be harmed in the process. The general outcome is so large that it outweighs the few exceptions. (And now I've probably stepped into another controversial example...:rolleyes: )

5136 didn't win the world championship in 2014. All of the teams listed did. If you expand to Einstein qualification alone, the list expands greatly*. When you limit to world champions, as I did, of course the list is short (the list of world champions period is short).

Of the world champions since 2010, a full 25% qualified via the methods you described as not expecting a world championship. If 25% of the population had negative reactions to vaccines, vaccines wouldn't be the immensely beneficial force that they are.

*Just 2015 Einstein:
20, 337, 900, 1255, 1671, 1923, 2512, 3476, 4265, 5012 - 10/32 teams - 31.25%

Citrus Dad 07-05-2015 17:02

Re: Proposal for the 2 Championship format
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Lil' Lavery (Post 1480693)
5136 didn't win the world championship in 2014. All of the teams listed did. If you expand to Einstein qualification alone, the list expands greatly*. When you limit to world champions, as I did, of course the list is short (the list of world champions period is short).

Of the world champions since 2010, a full 25% qualified via the methods you described as not expecting a world championship. If 25% of the population had negative reactions to vaccines, vaccines wouldn't be the immensely beneficial force that they are.

*Just 2015 Einstein:
20, 337, 900, 1255, 1671, 1923, 2512, 3476, 4265, 5012 - 10/32 teams - 31.25%

The appropriate probability is the number of teams that qualified out of the pool of non-Regional captains and first picks. That would be the right probability. That's more like 10/200 or 5% is my guess. (Pulling out the data is very time consuming.)

In addition, this year was very weird for 3rd and 4th picks. We picked two rookies and two second year teams for very specific reasons during the season that I expect won't ever arise again. A look at 2014 would be better for a representation of past and future games.


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