Alliance Captain versus last pick in Alliance Selection
 

Sean's post in another thread reminded me of a couple of thought experiments that I often pose to people in FRC. I thought it might generate some interesting discussion here.

1. You're competing at a 30 team regional, your last event of the season, and your team is not qualified to attend the Championship. Would you rather be:
A) The number 4 Alliance Captain and lose in the quarterfinals OR
B) The last pick of Alliance Selection of the #1 alliance (A.K.A. The 24th pick) and win the Regional

2. You're competing in a division at Championship. Would you rather be:
A) The number 4 Alliance Captain and lose in the division quarterfinals OR
B) The last pick of Alliance Selection of the #1 alliance (A.K.A. The 24th pick) and win Championship

The spread of responses I've seen have usually been about 50-50 for question #1 and 25-75 for question #2. Curious to see what people here think.

Re: Alliance Captain versus last pick in Alliance Selection
 

Personally, I would always prefer the "control your destiny" approach and be an alliance captain (or I should say be in position to be a captain... Accepting an invitation from a higher ranked captain is always a good option too!).

For me, it's not about winning a blue banner. It's about the experience my students have at the event. And frankly, I just think it's a better experience to be an alliance captain, formulate your alliance according to your scouting information, and providing the leadership the alliance needs to be successful. Being a first pick for another alliance gives you some of this as well, as it can then be a join decision for the second pick. Whether we win or lose doesn't really matter.

Re: Alliance Captain versus last pick in Alliance Selection
 

I think it greatly depends on the regional, but in a good amount of instances I don't believe the last pick of the first alliance contributes nearly as much as the first two robots. That being said, being essentially the 4th best robot at the competition (yeah I know it doesn't actually work like that) would make me feel a lot better than being handed a gold medal instead of earning one. of course it doesn't feel very good losing in the quarterfinals either.

Championships on the other hand has a much bigger and better field to choose from. If you want to win world champs that third robot is very crucial just like the second bot.
Originally I was going to put 1a and 2a but after more thought I went with 1a and 2b

Re: Alliance Captain versus last pick in Alliance Selection
 

I tend to think about FRC from a district point of view these days :rolleyes:.

In practice, the decision would be made without knowing the event outcome (i.e., lose in QF vs. win event) so the conditional decision (with given outcome) would have a different bias.

Playing robots late on a Saturday afternoon is one of best experiences FRC student team members can have, and it is pretty good for mentors as well. On that basis I choose B both times (conditionally) but would choose A both times if the outcome were not given.

Re: Alliance Captain versus last pick in Alliance Selection
 

Agreed, my answers would change a lot if we were competing under the district qualification system.

Re: Alliance Captain versus last pick in Alliance Selection
 

Question A becomes much different when you are in a district system. Being the last pick means at minimum you are the 9 seed where nobody in the top 8 gets picked. So you would get 16 points from seeding. Then you get 1 point from getting picked last, and 30 points for winning. So you come out with 47 points. Being the 4 seed gives you 19 points, with an extra 13 from seeding, which gives you 32 points. So from a pure points perspective, winning from the 24th pick is better then loosing in the QF from the 4th seed. However, when the real world starts being added, that 24th pick is probably going to be in the low seeds, which would take away about 8 points. That turns the delta from +15 to +7. Add in likelyhood to get awards, and the actual likelyhood of making it to the semis, and I personally would take the 4th seed route. Especially with a game like this, were the 3rd pick was usually relegated to a ramp. That would mean we failed at our goal of building a competitive robot.

As for champs, I would pick being the 24th pick every time. At champs, the 24th pick is what makes or breaks the alliance, and I would gladly be the robot that makes that alliance. In addition, you could be dropping because of bad scouting, not because of a bad robot (Cough 973 2011 Cough)

Re: Alliance Captain versus last pick in Alliance Selection
 

I think part of it depends on what kind of a team you are striving to be. In the moment I would say most people would prefer to be the 24th pick and win the event. There are some very strong, reputable teams who have fallen in the draft to the 22nd-24th.

If your long term goal is to see your team win events more frequently you need to learn to control your own destiny which usually comes at a cost of losing in the quarterfinals more than you'd like for a time until you transition from being one of the teams picked on the back end of the draft to one of the teams at the top everyone wants to be with.

3467 was an alliance captain on Archimedes in 2013 (losing to the division champions of 33, 469, and 1519) and in 2014 we were the 29th pick as the fourth member on the #5 alliance of 2590, 1625, and 1477 which ended up winning the Archimedes division. In all honesty we needed both experiences. 2013 showed us that with some hard work we really could make a name for ourselves and stand on our own being an alliance captain at the championship. 2014 was a lesson in learning from very experienced teams who are making their own reputations of continued success and well rounded programs on and off the field we learned a lot.

At the end of the day they each had their pros and cons. 2013 we lost in the quarters but finishing as a captain was huge. 2014 ended with a banner but our role was with our robot off the field.

If I had my choice I'd take be your own captain. You won't make it to the finals or Einstein or win the event if you don't learn how to assemble and alliance and develop strategy to make it to the semi-finals.

Re: Alliance Captain versus last pick in Alliance Selection
 

In my experience there is nothing more inspiring for a group of students than winning a blue banner. Striving for excellence is a lot easier when you've had a taste of it. That being said, I wouldn't want to be the 24th pick and win if I had an awful robot and was told to sit in the corner, but if I was on a team and was picked 24th to play an important role, then I would embrace it. 1058s only regional win came when we were picked 23rd (last pick on 2 seed) but that win changed the culture of our team forever.

Just because you get picked last doesn't mean you can't be a good team.

Re: Alliance Captain versus last pick in Alliance Selection
 

I'll take excellence over success in any scenario. Granted, being an alliance captain does not automatically translate into excellence, and more often than not all the teams playing in the eliminations at CMP are excellent.

I also think this would be more interesting if you switched the 24th pick to the 25th in the second scenario. Would people rather win a Championship when not playing a match in the eliminations than being a division alliance captain?

Re: Alliance Captain versus last pick in Alliance Selection
 

I'd choose 1A and 2B simply because its been the most realistic scenario for our team as far back as I can remember.
In fact, we were the #4 alliance at CMPS this year falling into that bracket once again. But at least we got over the hurdle and made it to Einstein......finally.
Just a side note: We were the only division where neither the #1 or #2 alliance advanced to Einstein.

We were never the 24th pick ever, but I'd take it in a heartbeat if given the opportunity or situation. Only once we fell below that at 2011 IRI as the 4th alliance partner. Worked out well for us and at least we got to play in the final match that won it all, while contributing.

Re: Alliance Captain versus last pick in Alliance Selection
 

I'd like to win.

Re: Alliance Captain versus last pick in Alliance Selection
 

1B and 2B. I'd always rather have the win. With proper marketing, a win can be used as a tool to strengthen your team's relationship with schools, local businesses, and your community. Plus, this situation probably means I am playing with teams more experienced than mine--which by my experience learning from them is far more useful for team development/growth than being a captain.

Re: Alliance Captain versus last pick in Alliance Selection
 

And if you're getting picked at an event of any kind of size (most regionals in the southeast are well over 50 teams, sometimes over 60), it means you weren't junk to begin with. So: this.

Sincerely,

Alliance 1's last pick
Alliance 1's last pick
Alliance 2's backup
Alliance 2's last pick

Re: Alliance Captain versus last pick in Alliance Selection
 

+1; my team didn't win an even this year but got to Worlds, while last year we won a district and a district chairman's award and didn't qualify. in the case of a district, I'd rather my team be a captain.

that being said, at a regional competition, I'd rather win something that qualifies my team for champs (whether it's being the 24th pick, getting engineering inspiration, or whatever), because I firmly believe that championships is one of the absolute best experiences one can have. once my team's at champs though, I want to win on personal merit- scouting, robot skills, etc. so while I wouldn't mind being the 24th pick, if it was what our performance made us deserve, I'd rather be ranked higher if we performed in a way that made us deserve that ranking. I never go to worlds expecting to be on einstein (well, except freshman year, but that doesnt count because I didnt understand what world-class play looked like at that point :P), because you can be the best robot in the world, and not make it due to any number of reasons.

also, being a 22nd pick (it's almost a 24th, just like we almost won our division) this year at champs showed me that later picks can be done to fill an extremely important niche role in an alliance (uprighting cans was ours), and aren't always the same as late picks at districts/small regionals. or they can be overlooked: 1671 was the 25th pick on the alliance that won einstein, and they could make 3 6-high stacks on a good day

TLDR: I like going to champs, but once there, I want my team to be ranked as well as it deserves, and just have a fun time while I'm there regardless of the outcomes. also late picks can be vital

Re: Alliance Captain versus last pick in Alliance Selection
 

Simply put, #blubannerz.