Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

Car Nack predicts that in the regional and district events that the number one seed will have a very difficult time winning the event. In fact the number one seed will win in less than 25% of the events.

Car Nack has spoken.

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

The almighty Car Nack has returned!

Hmm, seems like a 2012 sort of prediction. Considering we were picked by the #2 seed at an event in 2012 and lost in QF, I do not disagree.

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

This is a big prediction from CarNack !
The #1 seed typically wins more than 25% of the events in previous years.

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

I am wondering why the all knowing Car Nack has made this prediction.

I would think that a really good breaching robot will probably place in that position and then choose the best shooter.

???

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

Wow...

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

It's a perfectly reasonable prediction. This year a plan executed well will overcome the best individual robots.

The qualifications will do a good job of seeding the best robots high. The best team players and the best strategists may not seed number 1.

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

I can see Car Nack's points but I disagree. A team that makes a robot to effectively rank 1 is probably strategic enough to pick really good partners that compliment them as well. Teams still have to win matches to rank 1 in addition to breaching and capturing as well. And since breaching and capturing does not award in game points for qualifying matches, the rank 1 team will likely be a strong scorer on their own. A lower seeded alliance that has an earlier third bot can have a decent chance of working together to take down the top 2 bots but I think they would still be the underdogs. Will have to wait and see I guess :]

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

Now this is one of the most interesting Car Nack predictions ever, IMO. I need to think this one through...

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

My thoughts exactly. For reference, the number one seed won 50% of events in 2014 and 70% in 2015, and I'm pretty sure 2014 was a low outlier when compared to prior years, although I would have to look at the older data again.

Regardless, this is quite the claim.

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

Bouncing off of this, does anyone have the data on the % of #1 seeds that won their events over the past few years?

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

This prediction boils down to minimizing the advantages of first seed (first pick, playing vs 8th seed in QF's which allows the alliance to become cohesive before facing tougher opponents) while maximizing the disadvantage of first seed (16th pick).

• No 2nd picks which fill in the gaps for the 1st seed are available as the 16th pick
• Theory that the first seed will likely be a team who did the 'defense agreement' too much, therefore no other captains want to be their partner since no one knows what the 1st seed is REALLY capable of

Sure I'm missing others...

Curiously, I wonder if what led to this prediction is the thought that 8th seed (or 4th/5th seed) may have the upper hand in QF's simply due to variety in selection.

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

Maybe this is based off of a 3rd robot being more important in this game then others?

I don't think there is much room for "hold my ramp and don't move" robots this year. Plus even for the argument on defensive bots as a 3rd bot, the bottom list of teams will be teams that attempted a drivetrain for cross defenses and failed, There drivetrain may be worse off then a kitbot that far down the list.

Just my thoughts on the reasoning.

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

I'm personally just blown away by such a strong read by someone day 4 of the competition. Everything in it lines up so well. I just feel dumb right now.

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

I suspect part of this is the assumption that those bonus ranking points are going to shake up the standing more than usual. 1 RP in quals probably is worth more than 25 match points in elims, so Car Nack has a bit of a point. The attributes that make a #1 seed aren't as well aligned with winning Elims as they usually are.

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

Based on the fact that even if you lose a match, you can still conceivably get the same ranking points if you had won, will skew the seeding a bit.

The mystery of Car Nack continues...