Chief Delphi - Car Nack Predicts 16-1

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- - Car Nack Predicts 16-1 (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showthread.php?t=141556)

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1

Quote:

Originally Posted by plnyyanks (Post 1522731)

For completeness sake, I ran my script going to back to 2007 (as far back as TBA has ranking data)

So awesome Phil ! Thanks for the statistics

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1

Through Week 1, Car Nack's 25% prediction is not looking good. 9/17 (52.9%) of #1 seeds have captained winning alliances.

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1

Quote:

Originally Posted by Richard Wallace (Post 1552693)

Through Week 1, Car Nack's 25% prediction is not looking good. 9/17 (52.9%) of #1 seeds have captained winning alliances.

That number is, however, lower than in previous years, especially 2015. I was very surprised by the number of upsets this weekend, and I wonder if Car Nack was onto something, or if Week 1 was a fluke.

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1

Quote:

Originally Posted by Richard Wallace (Post 1552693)

Through Week 1, Car Nack's 25% prediction is not looking good. 9/17 (52.9%) of #1 seeds have captained winning alliances.

Using a binomial distribution with n=17 and p = .25, the probability that 9 or more first seeds would win in week 1 is only 1.24%. Unless later week events behave much differently than the early week events, there is currently a better chance of flipping a coin and predicting the outcome correctly 6 times in a row than there is of Car Nack's prediction being correct. Although that has happened, so all hope is not yet lost for this prediction.

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bob Steele (Post 1522108)

I am wondering why the all knowing Car Nack has made this prediction.

I would think that a really good breaching robot will probably place in that position and then choose the best shooter.

???

I don't think this strategy would ever work out...

;)

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1

Anyone have an update on this? I feel like this has been a season where more lower seeded alliances have won.

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1

Quote:

Originally Posted by JackN (Post 1560545)

Anyone have an update on this? I feel like this has been a season where more lower seeded alliances have won.

Week 0.5: 1/1
Week 1: 9/17
Week 2: 19/24
Week 3: 12/21

So far, #1 seeds have won 65% of Regionals/Districts.

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1

Quote:

Originally Posted by dodar (Post 1560549)

Week 0.5: 1/1
Week 1: 9/17
Week 2: 19/24
Week 3: 12/21

So far, #1 seeds have won 65% of Regionals/Districts.

So far, we're at a higher percentage of events won by #1 than all but 2010, 2011, and 2015.

Quote:

Originally Posted by plnyyanks (Post 1522731)

Code:

Overall 363 of 628 events were won by top seeds (57.8025477707 percent)

  In 2007, 17 of 41 events were won by top seeds (41.4634146341 percent). 0 events were skipped

  In 2008, 24 of 45 events were won by top seeds (53.3333333333 percent). 0 events were skipped

  In 2009, 21 of 44 events were won by top seeds (47.7272727273 percent). 8 events were skipped

  In 2010, 35 of 50 events were won by top seeds (70.0 percent). 5 events were skipped

  In 2011, 41 of 62 events were won by top seeds (66.1290322581 percent). 0 events were skipped

  In 2012, 46 of 73 events were won by top seeds (63.0136986301 percent). 0 events were skipped

  In 2013, 46 of 81 events were won by top seeds (56.7901234568 percent). 0 events were skipped

  In 2014, 51 of 102 events were won by top seeds (50.0 percent). 0 events were skipped

  In 2015, 82 of 117 events were won by top seeds (70.0854700855 percent). 0 events were skipped

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1

Car Nack is a witch.

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1

Quote:

Originally Posted by tr6scott (Post 1560569)

Car Nack is a witch.

Does Car Nack float?

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calvin Hartley (Post 1560577)

Does Car Nack float?

When the 2017 Water Game happens we will find out.

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calvin Hartley (Post 1560577)

Does Car Nack float?

What really matters is if Car Nack weighs the same as a duck.

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1

Quote:

Originally Posted by Car Nack (Post 1522082)

Car Nack predicts that in the regional and district events that the number one seed will have a very difficult time winning the event. In fact the number one seed will win in less than 25% of the events.

Car Nack has spoken.

Looks like Car Nack was a little off on this one. By my script from above...

Code:

Overall 446 of 762 events were won by top seeds (58.530183727 percent)

  In 2007, 17 of 41 events were won by top seeds (41.4634146341 percent). 0 events were skipped

  In 2008, 24 of 45 events were won by top seeds (53.3333333333 percent). 0 events were skipped

  In 2009, 21 of 44 events were won by top seeds (47.7272727273 percent). 8 events were skipped

  In 2010, 36 of 51 events were won by top seeds (70.5882352941 percent). 4 events were skipped

  In 2011, 41 of 62 events were won by top seeds (66.1290322581 percent). 0 events were skipped

  In 2012, 46 of 73 events were won by top seeds (63.0136986301 percent). 0 events were skipped

  In 2013, 46 of 81 events were won by top seeds (56.7901234568 percent). 0 events were skipped

  In 2014, 51 of 102 events were won by top seeds (50.0 percent). 0 events were skipped

  In 2015, 82 of 117 events were won by top seeds (70.0854700855 percent). 0 events were skipped

  In 2016, 82 of 134 events were won by top seeds (61.1940298507 percent). 0 events were skipped

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1

Thanks for crunching the numbers Phil !

What are the statistics for the #1 Alliance at the District Championships and FRC Champs level ?

Sometimes CarNack is wrong. Nonetheless, I will still constantly follow CarNack's predictions !