Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

Car Nack predicts that in the regional and district events that the number one seed will have a very difficult time winning the event. In fact the number one seed will win in less than 25% of the events.

Car Nack has spoken.

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

The almighty Car Nack has returned!

Hmm, seems like a 2012 sort of prediction. Considering we were picked by the #2 seed at an event in 2012 and lost in QF, I do not disagree.

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

This is a big prediction from CarNack !
The #1 seed typically wins more than 25% of the events in previous years.

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

I am wondering why the all knowing Car Nack has made this prediction.

I would think that a really good breaching robot will probably place in that position and then choose the best shooter.

???

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

Wow...

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

It's a perfectly reasonable prediction. This year a plan executed well will overcome the best individual robots.

The qualifications will do a good job of seeding the best robots high. The best team players and the best strategists may not seed number 1.

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

I can see Car Nack's points but I disagree. A team that makes a robot to effectively rank 1 is probably strategic enough to pick really good partners that compliment them as well. Teams still have to win matches to rank 1 in addition to breaching and capturing as well. And since breaching and capturing does not award in game points for qualifying matches, the rank 1 team will likely be a strong scorer on their own. A lower seeded alliance that has an earlier third bot can have a decent chance of working together to take down the top 2 bots but I think they would still be the underdogs. Will have to wait and see I guess :]

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

Now this is one of the most interesting Car Nack predictions ever, IMO. I need to think this one through...

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

My thoughts exactly. For reference, the number one seed won 50% of events in 2014 and 70% in 2015, and I'm pretty sure 2014 was a low outlier when compared to prior years, although I would have to look at the older data again.

Regardless, this is quite the claim.

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

Bouncing off of this, does anyone have the data on the % of #1 seeds that won their events over the past few years?

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

This prediction boils down to minimizing the advantages of first seed (first pick, playing vs 8th seed in QF's which allows the alliance to become cohesive before facing tougher opponents) while maximizing the disadvantage of first seed (16th pick).

• No 2nd picks which fill in the gaps for the 1st seed are available as the 16th pick
• Theory that the first seed will likely be a team who did the 'defense agreement' too much, therefore no other captains want to be their partner since no one knows what the 1st seed is REALLY capable of

Sure I'm missing others...

Curiously, I wonder if what led to this prediction is the thought that 8th seed (or 4th/5th seed) may have the upper hand in QF's simply due to variety in selection.

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

Maybe this is based off of a 3rd robot being more important in this game then others?

I don't think there is much room for "hold my ramp and don't move" robots this year. Plus even for the argument on defensive bots as a 3rd bot, the bottom list of teams will be teams that attempted a drivetrain for cross defenses and failed, There drivetrain may be worse off then a kitbot that far down the list.

Just my thoughts on the reasoning.

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

I'm personally just blown away by such a strong read by someone day 4 of the competition. Everything in it lines up so well. I just feel dumb right now.

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

I suspect part of this is the assumption that those bonus ranking points are going to shake up the standing more than usual. 1 RP in quals probably is worth more than 25 match points in elims, so Car Nack has a bit of a point. The attributes that make a #1 seed aren't as well aligned with winning Elims as they usually are.

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

Based on the fact that even if you lose a match, you can still conceivably get the same ranking points if you had won, will skew the seeding a bit.

The mystery of Car Nack continues...

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

Hmm, I do wonder how Car Nack has reached this conclusion.

There are a couple ways the #1 alliance can end up not dominating an event:

1.) The #1 seeded team cannot carry a large share of the alliance's weight in the playoffs, and either that team chooses the "best" robot as its #1 pick but the alliance is still not the best, or a "scorched earth" alliance selection happens and the "best" robots end up on other alliances.

This usually happens when there is some difference between what is required of a robot/strategy to seed high in qualifications, and what is necessary to win the playoffs. We saw this in 2012 with teams whose main goal was to balance the Coopertition bridge. However, even though there are ways of getting ranking points this year besides winning, it seems to me that these extra goals of breaching and capturing are still very valuable in the playoffs.

Another way this happens is if a team gets really lucky and seeds high. However, I cannot imagine this happening in 75% of all regional and district competitions.

2.) The #1 seeded alliance cannot compete with the others even though it has the best 2 robots at the event, because 3 okay robots are better than 2 good ones plus the last pick of the draft.

I'm not sure this one is true for this game. It seems likely that the 2 best robots at the event plus the last pick would be a very, very strong alliance. I would predict these two robots would be able to breach easily (can't defend breaching well) and perhaps weaken the tower and scale. That is a lot of points, and the third bot just needs to challenge for even more points.

Perhaps this game will have a lot of defense, especially in playoffs. That would make this game a lot like 2007, when many #1 alliances didn't win. For example, the three Michigan events that year had the #2, #5, and #5 alliances win. However, the defense in this game seems pretty limited since only one robot can defend its alliance's courtyard and crossing defenses is protected.

3.) The #1 seeded team makes imperfect alliance selection picks.

This one could happen, but probably not at the majority of events. A team that seeds first is likely to have good scouting and strategy.

4.) There are a lot of robots playing at the same level, and therefore the first pick advantage isn't huge.

This usually happens at high-level competitions. In 2011 MSC and 2012 Galileo, the #8 alliance beat the #1 alliance because there wasn't a significant enough difference in the playing ability of the robots on both alliances. This is something that can happen in every game, but it is more likely to occur at district champs, worlds, or at strong regionals or districts. A "weak" district or regional usually has 1 or 2 strong teams, even if they had to go out of their way to attend.

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

That is one bold prediction. Need to think about it for awhile....
The only previous year I thought it was predictable early on was 2007.

That year, a 9th seed won championships.:)

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

My interpretation: Car Nack is predicting that the top seed will often be a breacher that is not capable of contributing much towards a capture. Despite picking the best capture-er, they are unable to complete a capture often during playoffs. They will face an alliance that has two shooters/goal-scorers (high or low) who alone are not able to guarantee a breach or a capture (although pretty decent at both). Together, these two shooters will consistently be able to get both breaches and captures in their playoff matches, allowing them to take the event.

I'm not sure this is true. Breachers will seed highly, but there's further differentiation. Breaching in quals will be common enough for breaching robots that the top seed will be a breacher that can also score a significant number of points (allowing them to win more often). If they're scoring those points through goals, then they should be able to capture in playoffs if they pick the best shooter.

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

Point of order. In one of those Michigan events, #1 alliance was extremely likely to win if a certain 3rd pick hadn't accidentally gone out with a dead battery and then gone out a second time without a bumper that was holding their battery in. So that loss was more on team management of the 3rd pick than their robot capabilities. We've gotten better since then.

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

So do the other alliances. In fact, I would argue that lower seeds (especially teams who are unprepared to seed high) usually make suboptimal picks.

I also believe that the first seed will have a larger advantage than most years, even with the last pick. I wouldn't be surprised if there was a significant dropoff after about 10 teams or so (the best 10 teams will be capturing the tower almost every match and breaching sometimes). It seems likely as well that there will be more teams with basic robots that can contribute (as second picks) that #8's last pick won't be much better than #1's last pick. For that reason, I predict that the #1 seed will fall within their usual winning percentage, 50-75%.

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

Scorched earth is definitely possible in this game.
Especially if teams decline in hope of achieving the best autonomous alliance strategy.

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

This is the explanation that makes the most sense to me. However, I also believe that the first seed will still pull the win out the majority of the time.

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

...but does in tournament...

It always bothers me when the rules to get into the tournament are not the same as the rules to win the tournament. Qualification is supposed to result in a ranked list of probability of winning the tournament (it's not perfect, but that's the intention). If the rules change, the result is likely to be different.

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

I was curious too, so I whipped up a quick script to find out. Script and full output are available on my GitHub: https://gist.github.com/phil-lopreia...276a608edc7de4

So Car Nack's prediction of <25% would make this year a pretty significant outlier when compared to the past 5.

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

The question to ask yourself, though, is if it's as bad as 2010. As long as it's not as bad as 2010, it's not that bad.

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

Partial Quote from T3....

"...I don't think there is much room for "hold my ramp and don't move" robots this year...."
________________________________________________
Not exactly what you meant, but on at least 2 of the Defenses teams and alliances will face, "hold my ramp/door and don't move please" as I'll be right back (Drawbridge), or door (Sally Port) is the easiest way to damage/breach those defenses.

IE: If one can easily and quickly traverse lower easier defenses, then going back through those specific 2 defenses (lowering/opening them for another alliance partner and asking them to do the "follow me back in stop & hold where you are safe while on/in the Outer/Defenses zone (anyone messes with you/them from the opposition alliance then penalty points will be incurred and we score those points eventually). Now I'm going around back across to the neutral zone, collecting a boulder along the way and will follow you through the 2 hardest defenses (the ones with springs and pistons), and we Damage them both TOGETHER in a single pass through (of 2 robots passes per opening of those doors), instead of 2 separate passes.

Now, beyond the theory:

Who am I as an alliance partner: I am an all around FAST DEFENSES SMASHER/BREACHER SPECIALIST who chose tank tread drive in a WCD like design, I am extremely low CG as more than 1/5th of my weight is bumpers and below. I can push other robots like the strongest 8 wheel drives out there, and I'm not easily pushed around. I collect & deliver BOULDERS at a very fast pace to either Courtyard or low goal, or an alliance partner high goal shooter specialist - this is who I was built specifically for as "the perfect partner." My smooth fast flow over rough terrain, block wall, moat, portcullis and other low features is "to die for" and it is impossible to get a boulder that you didn't dip into glue to get stuck on my bot exterior, so I will not incur that penalty type.

I cannot shoot high, so I am a bit weaker on the auto pointing side alone personally than a few others, but I'll make up for it by attempting the extremely difficult, and either delivering a second, and maybe even attempting the impossible 3rd auto boulder to you or the low goal by season end when it really counts at CMP, after much practice, and maybe we can take advantage of that points overlay of auto boulder 10 points/foul 5 points risk so you may just wish to design your boulder pick up with a side intake (if you are going to sit in the Spybot Position), or a rear design (if say you wish to just sit at the 11' line in center of the courtyard...to accept quick boulder passes from me for auto high goal shooting).

I can deliver directly into low goal from a distance with a good degree of accuracy even though that ramping/ridge is there or up close, so I'll be alright in auto/tele even if I don't have any high goal support during some Q matches, as I will fully make up for it with smooth speed/guaranteed breach points every match, fast boulder delivery (Good for those last second low goals and to deliver to a high paced accurate high goal shooting alliance partner), and I can park or fast hang with the very best of them.

I will work very hard at my "Breaching Specialist Position" to make myself in demand to all high goal shooters (whether they are also crossing the defenses, or they never leave the Courtyard and are therefore, just Spybots from start to finish of every match), as long as they can receive my passes/feeding. I will be an excellent partner to any other Breacher (whether they are specialists or not). I will especially partner perfectly with any Low Bar Damager, as that is one Defense that we are guaranteed will always be there, (and that is my biggest weakness as I am much taller than the required maximum 14~15" safe robot height (what were those GDC designers thinking anyway?), to use the Low Bar position in any manner...A LOW BAR/QUICK BOULDER DELIVERY SPECIALIST and a HIGH GOAL SHOOTER SPECIALIST WHO IS KILLER ACCURATE suit my needs, and I suit theirs, as the dream team.

Let me prove my case:

This round the Audience chooses Portcullis (I predict this will often be on both sides of the field, whether audience or alliance chosen, as well as Sally Port/Drawbridge/Rough Terrain, and Rock Wall will), and I can easily traverse that defense using my (low/flat stored-telescoped and lowered), hanging device & manipulator to raise it quickly going either direction, the opposition alliance chooses Rough Terrain, Sally Port, & Drawbridge for the 3 defenses we will face, the Low Bar is always there for both alliances (but like I said, I can only specialize in the other 9 defenses, I blame my parents and The GDC that I grew to be taller than 16" tall and I will never taste the Damaging alone of the Low Bar (Oh well, you cannot be everything to everyone, all the time).....Will you, please....Can you help me?

I handle easily: Portcullis-Both ways, Rough Terrain-Both Ways, Sally Port & Drawbridge-Teamwork both ways easily, but takes a little longer-one pass both bots same time. I cannot fit through the low bar but you can.

You handle easily: Low Bar-Both ways collecting & delivering boulders fast to either high shooter or to the low goal yourself.

(You and high shooter are my heroes and I'd Knight you both if I could. I cannot of course, as I am not the King, I am a lowly Defense Breacher looking for Knighthood myself).

You also handle pretty well Portcullis one or both way(s) with your climbing device, or some other manipulator (this just takes you a second more than I each way), the Sally Port/Drawbridge with teamwork help, but you do not handle the Rough Terrain, Rock Wall, Moat, Cheval de frieze, etc. very well as your ground clearance is really, really lousy, and you often get hung up (and are then totally worthless the rest of the entire match). I will handle those, help you with the doored items (we will damage and Breach them together), and then we will storm the Tower with the help of our hero The High Shooter and Capture the Tower Together.

You can surround and scale (just not with the best of us), as it isn't easy to have everything work all the time, when your parents had to build so much into such a smooth/fast LOW BAR and Bolder Fetching/Scoring Package, and that is ok as you deliver boulders with such speed it is amazing). You will save many a last second match when that last boulder is needed to Capture the Tower, last second bolder points are needed to win the game, a last second damage/breaching partner is needed, etc.

But, you help Breach greatly and you help me keep that High Goal Shooter with plenty of damaging Tower ammunition that we get to attempt a Tower Scaling Mission Together every time & when you surround on the Tower Batter, you always know what position your bot is to be parked and locked on the Tower Batter so there is never any confusion and waste of valuable scaling time getting there (and it never moves from the position after game ending shutoff, so it will always get the points, and we will always be assured that if we surround on the Batter, and 1 or 2 of the rest of us surround or scale it successfully together, we will Capture the Tower and gain those all important RP's.

(Hint: Tower position Surround/Park on Batter choices: If you intend to scale the Tower, you get first & second choice of park positions. If you are not scaling you get third choice & second choice of surround/park positions as you can park while we are scaling...Otherwise, if we are all scaling, then we attempt to use our drive positions as park on batter positions if possible. The 20 second sound is very important...Don't extend any Tower scaling mech./devices before that sound, and all alliance members are to drop everything and get to your positions if we have no lights on the Tower left and we qualify to scale and/or capture that tower...If we need another boulder or more, then best/fastest boulder retriever(s) brings that and is left a low goal position to park on the batter, as others can attempt the scale (and delivery of final scoring boulder(s) and surround/park on Tower Batter assures the surround/park/scale succeeds and turns into a Capture with our smooth teamwork!

Lets play a virtual match together:
_________________________________
Let me prove my case:

This round the Audience chooses Portcullis, the opposition alliance chooses Rough Terrain, Sally Port, & Drawbridge for the 3 defenses we will face, the Low Bar is always there for both alliances. (We chose defenses for the other alliance based on combined scouting reports...These do not matter in this virtual match, we are facing the clock, and using our penalty avoidance skills as this is very important).

Auto Period: Our Super Spybot Magic High Goal Shooter sets up in the Spybot corner (Boulder Loaded), with their never miss shooter at the ready and their never miss a boulder collector ready and more than willing to receive from us both.

You set up boulder loaded in front of the LOW Bar and you will be delivering to HIGH GOAL SHOOTER first then exit straight back to LOW GOAL and cross back over to neutral zone ending in the approach area. (2 easy straight auto passes, up ramp through Low Bar deliver boulder to super shooter, easy pass, and return just slightly short on the return trip so you can end up in the Approached Position (though that issue isn't fully settled yet as to whether those 2 points will be scored have they?)

I set up in front of Portcullis or Rough Terrain, on the pass through auto, as I need to delay slightly on the cross to allow you to return and give me an unobstructed path to Supershooter, and I have multiple auto programs to choose from depending on position of defenses, position of Supershooter, etc., my programing and game strategy team did their jobs (and if Low Bar & Supershooter needs help, we can do that). We look like ballet stars as we work that auto routine together just missing each other on the crossover by a mere 2 seconds. We both had lots of time to return...and we note exactly how long using our scouts since we may use that later to pull off the miracle 2/3 boulder auto runs we will need to defeat the competition in the Playoffs when that banner is on the line. We record everything! We cheesecake everything we possibly can.

Wow, Supershooter made all 3 shots, you returned, I returned via Sally Port and end with the door wide open and in front of it in the Approach position.

Auto Ends.

You head directly over to park right in front of me boulder loaded and ready to go.....as I back out you move into position to hold Sally Port Door open for me, I go around load up, and meet you...We go through together Sally Port is Damaged. 1 Low Bar Pass down, 1 Portcullis pass down (2 more boulders delivered, and we are just getting into the telop period), you return Low Bar, I return Drawbridge and we repeat the process again Damaging Drawbridge...We never cross without taking a boulder back to the Courtyard since we need to keep Supershooter supplied and damage the Tower and keep up with any penalties that make it harder to damage the tower also...

We have delivered 7 boulders (3 were shot by supershooter in auto, we each have now delivered 2 more, you are off to deliver more and I am off to deliver another along w/ Damaging our very last defense, either Portcullis or Rough Terrain, and you are off to finish off Damage of the Low Bar (the first to complete the task gets our 4th and the BREACHED DEFENSE AWARD)...We have now delivered 9 boulders and not only BREACHED the DEFENSES.....We DAMAGED all 5 of them. We deliver as many as we can, you through Low Bar, I'm using Portcullis or heading over to help defend our courtyard via the secret passage that we own.

Then nearing the approach of the 20 second buzzer I'm heading back and flying over Rough Terrain to hang on that dastardly Tower. You, I and Supershooter - our hero, all park in our required spaces on the Batter and I'm using my pneumatic cylinders to raise my collapsed telescopic hang bar that latches automatically to the bar & my barrel winch powered by my tread drive motors in high gear to climb in a flash to scale the tower. I'll bet Supershooter scales and hangs also.

We forgive easily & quickly (when that flag is raised over the Tower. We together pnowned it, and all their bases is ours this match), that you cannot possibly join us in the air as long as you do not in any manner slip off of the Batter Low Bar Specialist. You were a great contributor in this match. And Supershooter...We could not have done it (Captured the Tower), without you. Boulders delivered 12~15 depending on how fast Low Bar Specialist is.

I will not agree w/ Car Nack...But closer to the 50% that 2014 was (the game will take just as much teamwork, maybe even more, and specialists will rule the day.

The all-around do everything specialist Defenses traversing, shoot high, shoot low, pick up, and hang, plus defense, will actually be very limited in contribution (and top out at max weight or be so swiss cheesed that breathing on it will be dangerous), except being versatile enough to be able to switch positions in qualifying if an alliance is short on something, but playing alone isn't even an option, a losing proposition (it is a time for all to shine and not just a select few at each event)....I predict that many top 24 qualifiers will be quite upset as they were in 2014 because they will not be chosen as 2nd picks (if you aren't in the top 10~12 you will risk being not chosen even though you performed very well).

Only very complementary robots will be that 2nd & 3rd robot....The Q RP's given will skew up a lot for Breaching Defenses, as will the Capturing since you only need to surround and not all scale to capture it...As long as you perform in the rest. The 3 robots Low Bar Specialist, Breach Specialist, and Supershooter is who together will win on Einstein. I think each will be necessary to win.....I personally want to build The described BREACH SPECIALIST. (My team did not necessarily agree and after parsing the game this is my vision alone).

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

I made my on bold prediction of <40% #1 seed winners back in '09 and I (along with most of Michigan) pretty much got dominated by HOT (leading to a total of 50% #1 seed winners). I hit my makeup prediction of exactly one #1 seed division winner (again HOT with capt Wildstang and Spartan Robotics, the eventual champions). This is a much bolder prediction, perhaps Car Nack's boldest ever. Major props to him if he is right. I wonder what the biggest contributing factor (extra RPs, lack of depth + serpentine + random match sched, indiv ability ceiling) was to prompt this prediction.

You can find more data for '09 and '08 in my prediction thread. Check out this great Jim Zondag chart for '07-'10.

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

I think Car Nack has this one wrong, 25% is too low, but I can see where this prediction is coming from.

The ranking points from breaching and capturing will skew rankings, perhaps making the 1-4 seeds more equal.

The bonus points from a capture and breach will be critical to winning an event. At events lacking depth, the last pick may not have a drivetrain that can consistently cross a defense. This could put the 1 seed in a predicament of asking the last pick to play defense with a large risk of them not capturing at the end, or camp in the opposing courtyard for the capture but play the match 2v3. This could be an issue against a more balanced 2 - 4 seed in the semis or finals.

The third alliance partner is worth 30 points just by Challenging for a capture. How many other years was the third partner that critical?

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

Third partner was worth 20 points per cycle in Aerial Assist for purely spitting the ball out of their intake, and most teams got around to 4-5 cycles per match at Champs, so that's a value of 80-100 points in a game where average score at champs was probably around 150-180.

But yeah, I would agree that the third alliance partner is crucial in this game, especially if they can be optimized to play anti-shooter defense and Secret Passage defense at the same time.

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

For completeness sake, I ran my script going to back to 2007 (as far back as TBA has ranking data)

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

So awesome Phil ! Thanks for the statistics

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

Through Week 1, Car Nack's 25% prediction is not looking good. 9/17 (52.9%) of #1 seeds have captained winning alliances.

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

That number is, however, lower than in previous years, especially 2015. I was very surprised by the number of upsets this weekend, and I wonder if Car Nack was onto something, or if Week 1 was a fluke.

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

Using a binomial distribution with n=17 and p = .25, the probability that 9 or more first seeds would win in week 1 is only 1.24%. Unless later week events behave much differently than the early week events, there is currently a better chance of flipping a coin and predicting the outcome correctly 6 times in a row than there is of Car Nack's prediction being correct. Although that has happened, so all hope is not yet lost for this prediction.

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

I don't think this strategy would ever work out...

;)

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

Anyone have an update on this? I feel like this has been a season where more lower seeded alliances have won.

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

Week 0.5: 1/1
Week 1: 9/17
Week 2: 19/24
Week 3: 12/21

So far, #1 seeds have won 65% of Regionals/Districts.

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

So far, we're at a higher percentage of events won by #1 than all but 2010, 2011, and 2015.

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

Car Nack is a witch.

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

Does Car Nack float?

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

When the 2017 Water Game happens we will find out.

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

What really matters is if Car Nack weighs the same as a duck.

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

Looks like Car Nack was a little off on this one. By my script from above...

Re: Car Nack Predicts 16-1
 

Thanks for crunching the numbers Phil !

What are the statistics for the #1 Alliance at the District Championships and FRC Champs level ?

Sometimes CarNack is wrong. Nonetheless, I will still constantly follow CarNack's predictions !