Championship Waitlist
 

I'm not sure whether "season" is specific to competition season, or the period of time from kickoff til CMP.

Have any waitlist teams received word as to their CMP status yet?

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

I would guess no since only 30 teams are registered as of today.

Most likely season refers to competition season, which means they should be starting to send out notices soon.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

Last year it seamed that they sent out invitations to waitlist teams AFTER they had a rough estimate of how many earned spots would be taken.

Once you're team has completed all of its registered competitions, and has NOT earned a spot at champs, then they send you the invite.

I think we got our invite during the week following our second regional

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

This is not true. Last season, we got our invite before our second of three events, and I also know that many MSC qualifying teams got notified before MSC, which created an extra spot in the district.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

Hmmm. There is a very distinct possibility I am remembering things wrong. It's happened before. But for us, we did receive our invite within one week of our Week 5 event.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

We also received our invitation (somehow; we had gone to worlds the previous year) before the district championship last year (as had another Indiana team), so at the end of the district champs another team knew that they were advancing to worlds due to the spot we received.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

It seems like teams are beginning to get on via the wait list.

175 teams are currently registered. Only 144 spots have been generated by regionals so far. Some of those will be HoF/Legacy/2015 Champs spots.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

Where is this list coming from?

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

None of the listed teams are there from waitlist.

144 spots have been generated by regionals.
There are 7 legacy teams.
From my count there are 17 active Hall of Fame teams. 1 of them (191) is legacy.
There are 4 Winners from last year's champs.
There are 4 EI winners from last year's champs.
So 144+7+16+4+4=175

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

Fair enough. But this does mean that every single week 1/2 team accepted and paid their invitation to the Championship, which would be truly unprecedented.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

The earliest waitlist invite I can confirm from last year was after week 4 events had concluded.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

Is there a form that we have to fill out, where will it be sent to, and where can I find more general information?

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

Your main contact in TIMS will get an email saying something to the effect of, "Congratulations, you've been invited to take a wait list spot..."

Your main contact had to register for the wait list in TIMS. And you'll have about the same time frame to accept/pay as a team that earns a spot via regional competition. (If memory serves)

Edit... our wait list invite from last year, on April 7:

Greetings 2015 Championship Wait List Team:

We are very pleased to be able to offer your team a spot in the 2015 Championship event!

To Accept this Invitation:
· Your team has been moved from Wait List status to Registered status in the Team Information Management System (TIMS)
You will need to notify us of your acceptance and secure your Championship Registration by contacting Finance and making payment within 48 hours*
Email or Fax a Purchase Order to ar@usfirst.org or 603-206-2079
Email or Fax a Letter of Commitment to ar@usfirst.org or 603-206-2079
Log into your TIMS account to pay with a credit card
If you have any questions or need assistance with payment, please contact Finance at 800-871-8326, ext. 563, or email ar@usfirst.org and a Finance representative will be happy to assist you.
· If you have other Championship related question(s), please contact Team Support at 800-871-8326, “0”, or email frcteams@usfirst.org and a team support staff member will be happy to assist you.

*Please note, we understand the requested turn-around time on this invitation is short and may be a cause of concern. Given the proximity to the event, it is necessary we have wait list teams secure their spots as quickly as possible, or release them so we may extend the offer to other teams on the list. We want to assure you, however, that Finance will do everything possible to work with you in securing your spot should you choose to attend. We thank you in advance for your understanding.

To Decline this Invitation
· Your team has been moved from Wait List status to Registered status in TIMS. Important: This does not commit you to attending the Championship; this status change was done to expedite the overall Wait List process.
· Kindly reply to this email within 48 hours of receipt with your written Decline and your team will be Unregistered as well as removed from future Wait List consideration
· If you have any questions, please contact Team Support at 800-871-8326, “0”, or email frcteams@usfirst.org and a team support staff member will be happy to assist you

Thank you in advance – we hope you are able to join us in St. Louis!

Go Teams!

Sincerely,

FRC Team Support

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

It does appear that a few teams are now registered for World Champs via the waitlist.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

48 is registered and they have not qualified at their events so waitlist teams must be getting in.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

There are a few others as well. For example, 3637 from MAR is already shown as registered for STL, as is 2767 from Michigan.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

When is the full list of waitlist teams usually posted? Thhe INDCMPS is Week 7 this year. I'd like to know any IN teams qualified via the waitlist before then. Will it be known before then?

Last year, two IN teams were known during the week 6 event so I assume yes?

Bonus: Does anyone have a link to a list of teams that qualified via the waitlist? I'm curious if FIRST keeps that specific list on their website. Thanks.

Edit: Also, if anyone does find a list of waitlist teams that have qualified via the waitlist in the later weeks, please post it on this thread too. Thanks.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

2791 hasn't been to Champs since 2009, and they have the best robot they've ever built. If 2791 doesn't get in off the waitlist to the last real championship, I don't know what criteria even exists for this.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

No criteria? It's a weighted randomization:

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

This is the full list of teams that have been invited via wait list as far as I can tell:
as of 4/2

48
188
279
296
333
538
1389
1739
1987
2471
2647
2767
3055
3637
3961
4405
4792
5034
5243
5775 declined

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

Well thats just it- what you quoted. How is it that 48 is already off the waitlist when they've been to champs almost every year, including last year (no offense to 48, you guys are cool), when 2791 hasn't been since 2009 and isn't. It just seems odd.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

Agreed we have not ever made championships and have been a team since 2009. I wish it was a little less random but oh well.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

How can you tell? And why don't they draw all wait list teams in 1 big drawing on 1 day?

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

They invite teams as early as possible to give them time to make plans, but they still don't know exactly how many wait list spots there are to give out.

My list is from some interpretation of the data from my website that is tracking the championship registration list: frc.divisions.co/history

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

Because it's random. If you have 14 teams that went last year on the waitlist, the odds that 1 of them will be picked are twice as high as the odds that a particular team with 7 chances gets picked.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

If a team was invited via waitlist but declined last year, do the number of entries they get in the weighting still depend on their last Championship appearance or is it based on the last invite?

For instance, my team (4276) last attended in 2013 but we were invited and declined in 2015. Do we get 3 entries or 1?

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

I'd imagine 3.
The data is much easier to handle just going by past official Championship team lists than having to remember somehow who turned down what and when.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

Technically, we qualified at our event, as we received the email one hour after arrival in Queen City. :)

We actually should have qualified twice, but whatevz. We're in.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

Maybe low-numbered teams are as lucky with lottery randomization as they aren't with schedule randomization. ;) ;) ;) ;)

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

Its got to be 3. They shouldn't ding you for not being able to afford the event.

Also, I looked up our last invitation. It was sent one whole week AFTER our last event. So we had very little time to plan too.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

1987 actually did qualify at Hub City by winning EI. I assume that will open up another spot on the waitlist for a different team in the end.

For those that did apply to the wait list, you will need to have your plan together as they don't give much time to give them an answer.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

This is very true. We received the invite on Thursday morning. We had to accept or decline within 24 hours of email receipt. We had to secure payment by the following Monday. If you hope to receive a spot, be ready to act immediately should your golden ticket arrive in your Inbox.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

Here's the list as of 4/5:

48
188
279
296
322 declined
333
538
1389
1510
1739
1987 qualified after waitlist invite
2471 declined
2647
2767
3055 declined
3637
3961
4180
4405
4792
5034
5243
5775 declined

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

Just out of curiosity, why would anyone be declined?

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

I am guessing that the team was offered a slot but they declined, probably because they did not have the money to attend.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

Ohhh declined means that the TEAM declined... okay. I thought that frc declined the team.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

Have anymore teams been moved off the wait list and into champs since last week?

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

The last wait list change was made on 4/3. The list above is still current- a total of 18 teams are currently registered for the championship from the wait list.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

Do we know how many spots are left to be handed out?

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

This "old school" version of the site has the tally at 321 teams so far.

https://my.usfirst.org/myarea/index....2016&event=cmp

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

Based on my (possibly inaccurate) count, at least 25 wait list spots still need to be handed out. As many as ~40 could be given out, especially if they go over the 600 team target like last year.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

With 321 spots currently taken, and 6 regionals this weekend (36 spots) and 218 district spots allocated, that leaves 25 spots left to fill with the waitlist, assuming 600 teams.

This doesn't account for any spots taken by a district team at a regional.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

Hmmm. Looks like we might be saving that $5000 for other projects.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

Can you explain the "218 district spots allocated"? I am not familiar with how district events allocate championship spots.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

https://firstfrc.blob.core.windows.n...-manual-07.pdf
The table in Section 7.4.4

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

From the admin manual:

7.4.4 FIRST Championship Teams from Districts

"Districts will receive the percentage of available slots at the FIRST championship, rounded up to the nearest whole slot, equal to the percentage of teams they have in their District compared to all of FIRST Robotics Competition in the current season. In calculating available slots at the FIRST Championship, pre-qualified teams will be excluded. "

7.4.3 District Championship

"Team capacity at District Championships for the 2016 season will be as follows:
Chesapeake District Championship...................................... 58
Indiana State Championship...................................... ........... 32
Michigan State Championship...................................... .......102
Mid-Atlantic Robotics District Championship ........................ 55
North Carolina FIRST Robotics State Championship............. 32
New England District Championship..................................... 64
Pacific Northwest District Championship .............................. 64
Peachtree District State Championship................................. 45"

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

Okay, so effectively ~half of the teams competing in District Championships will earn a spot to Champs?

Makes me wonder what the true "path of least resistance" of qualifying for Champs actually is.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

Districts, for sure.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

Total: .................................................. ...........................218/452....48.2%

Key: ..............................(Teams going to Worlds)/(Teams at DCMP)....%%%%

Modified the quote to have total allocated to worlds vs. total at DCMP with percentages.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

Please don't forget that the teams competing in a district championship have already passed the filter of qualifying in their district to compete in the championship and gain a chance at qualifying for the world championship.

For example: Michigan has 411 teams. 102 compete at the DCMP. 76 qualify for CMP. 76/411 = 18.5%
Indiana has 49 teams. 32 compete at DCMP. 9 qualify for CMP. 9/49 = 18.4%

That's still a better percentage than you see at a typical regional, but it's not a "nearly half" situation.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

218 out of 600 is much closer to 1/3 of spots than 1/2 of spots.

The quantity of teams each district sends to the Championship is based on their proportion of the total teams in FRC. A more populous district sends more teams.

In terms of the "path of least resistance," it really depends on what your team is. If you're a high performing team, districts affords you a much greater chance to qualify via points. If you're a middle of the pack team, you may have better odds in a regional format, and hoping to be on the right alliance at the right time and take home a regional win (or wildcard).

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

I didn't say half the teams attending champs were from Districts, just that half the District Champs teams were attending worlds. Very different.

Looking at Michigan for a second:

411 teams in total, 76 qualify for CMP (18.5%)

vs

Non-rookie team attending 2 regionals:
1st regional, 5 spots out of 65 make it to champs (7.7% chance to make Champs)
2nd regional, 5 spots out of 48 earn champs spots (reduced total number of teams attending the regional because they already earned spots, effectively factoring in wildcards): (10.4% chance to make Champs)

0.923 * .896 = .827 chance of not making Champs = 17.3% chance of making Champs from Regionals from a purely statistical standpoint.

So to *nearly* match the odds of making Champs at Regionals, one must always plan to attend 2 regionals.
2 regionals = $9000, vs 2 district events + district championship = $8000

$432 per 1% chance of making it to Champs via Districts
$520 per 1% chance of making it to Champs via Regionals

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

Incorrect. Our registration is $5000 just like every one else. The DCMP is $4000, just like a 2nd play regional.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

Looks like 2 teams were removed from CMP list.

Both appear to be waitlist teams

2647
4792

So that brings the # of wait list spot up to 27

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

First off, the cost of 2 district events and a district championship is $9000 in registration fees.

Secondly, where are you getting that 65 team number? 65 teams would be a very large regional event, and probably shouldn't be used as a general proxy for regional qualification. Using the data from this page, the average size of a regional event is only 51.5 teams.

Further still, you remove the rookies from the regional pool, while you don't remove the rookies from the district pool. While rookie qualification is proportionally smaller in the larger districts, it can significantly impact the odds in places like Indiana, Georgia, and North Carolina (where total team quantity is comparable to regional size). There's also the ranking point bonuses assigned to rookie (10 point) and sophomore (5 point) teams in the district system.

So, let's re-run the numbers.

210 non-rookie exclusive CMP spots are generated for the 1151 district teams. That's an 18.24% advancement odds for $9000 worth of registration fees, or $493.22/% point.

A one-regional team competes for 5 non-rookie exclusive CMP spots out of 51.5 regional attendees. That's a 9.71% advancement odds for $5000 worth of registration fees, or $514.93/% point.

Not factoring in wild cards (which improve regional teams' odds), a two-play team has an 18.48% advancement odds for $9000 worth of registration fees, or $487.09/% point.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

As per the Admin Manual:
Is there generally a date that they would no longer invite waitlisted teams? I would assume it's based on the rest of the teams that actually qualify and if there are any spots left over/when they either accept or decline the invitation.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

From what I remember from last year, they were still inviting teams about a week before championship. At that point, the decline rate increases significantly and it becomes difficult to find any teams willing to make last minute plans.

As a definite stop, I'm pretty sure once divisions are released no further teams can be invited.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

1058 was pulled off last year a few days before New England Champs. And there's definitely teams that get invited after that. I'm pretty sure I've heard of teams getting invited a few days before world champs.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

Team 4276 just received an invitation this morning. One week after our second event.

We'll be accepting.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

8 teams were invited today bringing the total number of wait list teams to 24:

181
238
548
670
2405
3482
4276
5404

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

548, 3482....48 is a lucky number. Also, Happy 48 Day (4/8).

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

4 additions and 2 declines brings the current total to 26:

48
157
181
188
238 declined
279
296
322 declined
333
538
548
670
1389
1510
1732
1739
1987 qualified after waitlist invite
2344
2405
2471 declined
2647 declined
2767
3055 declined
3482 declined
3637
3961
4180
4276
4290
4405
4792 declined
5034
5243
5404
5775 declined

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

It depends on the district. In the Pacific Northwest district this year, grants from generous sponsors covered all of the district championship registration fees, so there was no additional cost to the teams themselves.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

4290 has accepted their waitlist position. See you all at championships!

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

Qualifying teams from the 3 district championships and the 6 regionals this past weekend have been added to the registration list.

• Only 28 of the estimated 36 regional spots were taken
• There were 2 district teams that were already qualified (via regional, etc) of the 65 available district spots
• One wait list team declined (team 157)

According to my count, with up to 153 district spots still up for grabs, the current open capacity at the championship is 28 teams.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

What is the likelihood that a team who has participated in last years championship becomes eligible through the waitlist?? Is it above 20%?

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

So far no IN team has made it off the waitlist. Hopefully that changes by this weekend.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

Agreed. Sending 1-2 more teams would give some really deserving teams a shot at making the big show.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

The likelihood is 1/number of lottery tickets. We don't know how many teams signed up for the lottery or the distribution of them back to the last time they attended the championship (or their rookie year or the latest year of refounding) so we cannot determine the denominator. If I had to guess, I would say there is less than a 20% chance.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

And it would also change per team too.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

The question was about a team that went to champs last year.


(We have 6/total # of tickets still hoping to get in!)

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

I'm sorry to disappoint you, but you have 6/tickets. You get 2016-2010(rookie year) tickets. Best of luck.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

Whoops.

No disappointment though.

We have 7 and are still hoping :/ so the odds of a person with 1 getting it are definitely lower them 20%

Sent from my LG-H810 using Tapatalk

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

We got RAS at our regional last year and are on this year's wait list. Would we have 5/6 tickets? What are the chances?

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

You would have one ticket. You get 2016-2015(last year you attended the championship). We still cannot tell you the chances because we do not know how many teams are on the wait list and how many tickets each of them receive.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

Current Amount of teams qualified to worlds (on the Worlds list here): 420
Teams Left to send:
-Peachtree: 12
-Michigan: 76
-MAR: 22
-NE: 34
-IN: 9
Total: 573

Total at worlds: 600
Spots left for waitlist: 600-573 = 27

So based on my calculations, we should have 27 more spots (at least) to raffle off to the waitlist. I'm asking if anyone knows why FIRST hasn't raffled off these 27 spots yet. Thank you.

Edit: As I thought about this, is this so less teams that will qualify get waitlisted? For instance, 1024 is ahead by a lot in IN. Odds are, they just need to show up and rank well in qualifications and they secure a spot for themselves in the "next-in" teams. Is this to prevent good teams like 1024 getting the waitlist spot? So is that why they are waiting until after week 7 events to do the rest of the waitlist teams? Thanks again.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

Several of your numbers aren't quite correct.

I believe the target is 600 teams. There were 608 last year due to a number of circumstances. I don't know an official number, so FIRST could potentially do whatever they want.

Indiana has 9 spots, not 12.

The 420 number includes teams from districts that have already qualified, for example, 868 is already registered, but they're taking one of the 9 Indiana spots, so there is actually another waitlist spot opened up for that.

The calculation becomes much harder to know how many teams, and I'm pretty sure there hasn't been an official decree of "xxx number of teams, exactly" to allow for some wiggle room.

I doubt FIRST is not releasing waitlist spots to see if a "good team" qualifies on their own. They have provisions in districts to give the waitlist spot for an in-district qualifying team to the next-in-line team. I know this because we got 135's waitlist spot last year. There isn't a reason to wait to hand those out.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

Oops. Sorry. I'm not sure why I put down IN having 12 spots. I've been fretting about the fact we only have 9 spots for the past few weeks. Haha. But still, there are 27 spots to give away at least right? So why aren't those being given away yet?

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

Also, MAR only has 19 spots left to give out this weekend, not 22 (11, 1676, and 2590 have already qualified).

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

And FiM has two less spots from 910 and 245 qualifying at WEGLR and Queen City, respectively.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

Does anyone know how 5830 (Chesapeake district) or 4534 (North Carolina district) qualified? I don't think it's wait list (especially since 5830 is a rookie), but I don't see any other reason.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

5830 was the RAS at CHCMP.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

Accounting for the other districts as well, here is an updated total:
-Peachtree: 11 of 12
-Michigan: 74 of 76
-MAR: 19 of 22
-NE: 33 of 34
-IN: 8 of 9
Total left to send: 145
Total spots taken: 565
Total spots remaining: 35

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

Thanks, and 4534 won Engineering Inspiration at nccmp.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

I wonder why first is waiting to distribute the last 30 or so spots. The longer the wait the harder it is for teams.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

They may have already notified teams they have a wait list spot. But they the team gets a day to decide and decline. If all thirty spots get offered and declined over and over, the registered team list stays the same while the date keeps rollin' on.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

Thanks so much! I totally forgot about the district teams that already qualified via regionals. All in all, they still have pretty big amount of wait list spots to give out.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

You forgot 141 won EI in South Florida.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

I counted 141 but missed 910 because they aren't listed as qualified on this list for some reason.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

24 teams pulled from the wait list today:

145
178
303
334
354
423
433
839
894
1123
1159
1973
2733
2823
3049
3501
3600
4085
4206
4335
4646
5166
5261
5410

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

4335 has accepted

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

Team 433, The Firebirds has just been accepted off of the waitlist! We cannot wait to see everyone in Saint Louis!

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

It's good to see 145 on that list! They always build a decent machine with a ton of potential, and I'm glad they have the opportunity to go to champs!

I'm still pulling for 2791 to get one of the spots, though. Their robot is phenomenal.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

Very happy to also see team 839 Rosie Robotics on the list as well!

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

Any idea with how many spots could be left (if any) this close to Championship? (Along with 24 teams being pulled a couple days ago.) I'm really not sure when they stop pulling people from waitlist... (I'm new to waitlist this year).

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

It's going to be a very busy Monday and Tuesday at headquarters. They need to add all of the teams that accepted their bids from the weekend, then evaluate the slots they have left, then they will probably offer the waitlist spots in "waves". They'll notify teams, add whoever accepted their bids and remove the people that turned it down, then keep going from there.

I don't know how many slots will be actually pulled off the waitlist proper at this point and will instead go down the ladder from district systems.

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

The Registration Lists currently sits at 583 I would assume it is safe to say that they added all district teams that officially qualified this weekend when a bunch were added this morning (this might be wrong).

It looks like there are 17 spots open excluding any declines from the teams added on Friday.

And there could be even more. Last year champs had a total 608 team going because they wanted to ensure that they had fulfilled the number they promised. We won't know if they go over again until they do.

At a minimum it would appear there are at least 17 spots left.

The hope is still alive. (Even for us!)

Re: Championship Waitlist
 

593 this morning, although acceptances must still be being finalized.