FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

I don't know if this has been pointed out before, but it seems as if FIRST recycles a general theme for games every 4 year.

This theory begins in 2003 as FIRST introduced STACK ATTACK and the autonomous mode. I believe at this time the GDC made a decision to streamline the cycle at which games came out. This cycle follows the traditional High School career of 4 years in the US, to ensure that each FRC student got a well-rounded experience. Those themes were: lifting game (somewhat different object is scored through a lift type mechanism), game with ball 1(not necessarily shooting, and other important game objectives and objects), unusual object game, game with ball 2 (goals on opposite sides with very few other game objects, most commonly shooting). Here is an analysis based on each game: (L=lifting, GB1=Game with ball 1,U= unusual object game, GB2=Game with ball 2)

2016: FIRST Stronghold GB1
- Shooting balls into towers
- Defenses are the other game objective/objects, as well as scaling.

2015: Recycle Rush L
- Lifting totes into stacks
- Don't want to say anything else about this game

2014: Aerial Assist GB2
- Goals on opposite sides of field
- Shooting trackballs into those goals.
- Not many other game objects and objectives (truss isn't huge as you didn't really need to make a new mechanism for it)

2013: Ultimate Ascent U
-Score frisbees (unusual object) into goals.
-Could say the pyramids were also somewhat unusual.

2012: Rebound Rumble GB1
-One may argue it is a GB2, as it has goals on opposite sides and is a pretty traditional type of game.
-Not really as another game objects in bridges.
-Larger emphasis on bridges than hanging in 2010.

2011: Logomotion L
-Teams organized pool tubes into the FIRST logo on a rack.
-Teams designed lift mechanism which would place the tubes onto said rack.

2010: Breakaway GB2
-More traditional (pretty much robot soccer) with goals on opposite sides.
-Shooting/punching balls into goals
-Hanging was included, but not a huge emphasis.

2009: Lunacy U
-Moon rocks and cells are unusual game pieces
-Could say that the crater (the field) was also an unusual object.

2008: FIRST Overdrive GB1
-Teams circled through the field
-Not traditional shooting game
-Trackballs scored over overpass (extra game objective).

2007: Rack 'n Roll L
-Pool tubes scored onto rack.
-Lifting mechanism for scoring tubes onto multiple heights on rack.

2006: Aim High GB2
-Goals on opposite sides of field.
-No extra game objects besides goal and ramp in front of it.
-Emphasis on shooting in goals (and defense).

2005: Triple Play U
-Unique game piece in tetras (place on goals)

2004: FIRST Frenzy: Raising the Bar GB 1
-Mobile goals and hanging bar (extra game objects)
-less shooting more placing
-Goals are not on opposite sides of field (less traditional)

2003: Stack Attack L
-Start of the cycle
-Teams stack and attack stacks of totes.
-Teams used lifting mechanisms to stack

If this pattern continues 2017 will be an unusual object game. Perhaps, teams trying to score tetras on to the 2013 pyramids, as human players throw moon rocks to knock them off, at the end teams must put their alliance flags on top of the pyramid.

Thanks for reading! All feedback is greatly appreciated! (I know many of the GB1s and 2s are very similar)

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

I saw a similar theory during proposed during the preseason to Recycle Rush, which I believe has held true so far. This one seems more thoroughly thought out, taking into account the manipulation of each game piece rather than just the game piece itself. Really nice job. Can't wait to see something unusual next year :D

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

This is an old (and interesting) topic.

If you do some CD searching, you will be rewarded with an opportunity to add any new insights you might have, to CD's existing speculations, theories, statistics, observations, and conclusions in this subject. Adding something useful (like an update that includes recent history) to those discussions will be better than starting from scratch again.

I think the broad consensus is that there is something of a chicken-and-egg tug-of-war between game designers and the (locally, at least) euclidean geometry of our universe.

Blake

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

The only other two non-ball years were also odd (1997 and 1999); 2001 is actually the only exception to odd years having non-balls since 1997. That was also the only 4v0 year (or xv0 year, for that matter).

2009 game pieces were nearly spherical, but it was the only time since 1993 where carpet did not make up a majority of the game surface.

Most non-spherical game pieces were placed rather than thrown or dumped, but 2009 and 2013 were exceptions. It's four years later...

So yes, I expect non-ball game pieces, and would not be at all surprised if they are to be launched (or creatively dispatched, e.g. deflated, crushed, eaten, inverted, made dizzy) rather than placed.

Edit: In describing the recent apparent four year cycle to someone last year, I recapped the pattern as "ball, placement, ball, bizarro". If the pattern holds, it's a bizarro year.

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

Spotlighted.

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

I too can find a method with correlation bias by applying a pattern to most datasets!

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

I predicted that next year we will probably have trailers/mobile goals again but I agree the pattern of odd shaped game pieces is also very likely. Trailers somewhat fall into that pattern since we have not had a trailer/mobile goal game since 2009. In modern FRC if there is no ball game piece next year then 2018 will have a ball.... Says a 25 year trend that we have never once gone 2 years in a row without a ball shaped game piece!

Since we have already had toroids, sacks, plastic boxes, tetras, whatever 2009 counts as since it was sort of a ball, frisbees, and noodles I wonder who can guess what the next weird game piece will be?

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

Lawn Gnome

FIRST 7 year carpet color cycle theory
 

So while everyone is busy trying to answer silly questions like "What will next year's game be?", I have been hard at work (I actually spent way too much time on this) diving in to the history of FRC to find an answer to the real question on everyone's minds: "What color will the carpet be next year?". To answer this question I studied the past 15 games because what can you possibly learn from a mere 14 games? I even braved looking back through the what is known as the "Dark Years" of FRC (2004-2008), when FIRST did not provide carpet names. What I have come up with I am calling the "FIRST 7 year carpet color cycle theory". Every 7 years starting back in 2003, the field has featured three colors of carpet: a red, a blue, and a third color.

2016-FIRST Stronghold: "Scotch Pine"

2015-Recycle Rush: "Polar Express" and "Capital Red"

2014-Aerial Assist: "Ground Pepper"

2013-Ultimate Ascent: "Ground Pepper"

2012-Rebound Rumble: "Park Bench"

2011-Logomotion: "Ground Pepper"

2010-Breakaway: "Scotch Pine" with small amounts of "Polar Express" and "Capitol Red"

2009-Lunacy: "Glasliner FRP(tm)"

2008-FIRST Overdrive: "gray"

2007-Rack 'n Roll: "gray"

2006-Aim High: "gray"

2005-Triple Play: "gray"

2004-FIRST Frenzy: Raising the Bar: "gray"

2003-Stack Attack: "Saphire Night", "Pewter", and "Festival Red"

2002-Zone Zeal: "Black Coal"

2017 will be 7 years from 2010, so we will see this pattern occur again. Look at the facts, they're indisputable. Now that I have cracked this mystery that has puzzled FRC for decades, all of CD can sleep easy until kickoff knowing what the carpet will be and can stop worrying about silly things like the what the game will be.


:D :D :D

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

Egg shaped objects would be cool. I can only imagine the crazy, out of the box mechanisms that teams will build.

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

With the water game joke that's always floating around, I was thinking blue carpet and plastic shark game pieces.

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

Footballs or Rugby balls?

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

Another thing I noticed was the cycling of scaling or something similar every 3 years:

2016-FIRST Stronghold: Scale the Tower

2015-Recycle Rush: none

2014-Aerial Assist: none

2013-Ultimate Ascent: Climbing pyramid

2012-Rebound Rumble: none

2011-Logomotion:none

2010-Breakaway: scaling the center two things

2009-Lunacy: none

2008-FIRST Overdrive: none

2007-Rack 'n Roll: climbing or lifting other robots

2006-Aim High: none

2005-Triple Play: none

2004-FIRST Frenzy: Raising the Bar: scaling the center bar

2003-Stack Attack: none

Scaling is the only thing that I found that cycles every 3 years so far, but I think there are more. The purpose of the 3 year cycle would be so that students in their 4th year could apply knowledge from their first year to a similar task, and also nostalgia. I call this theory "FIRST 3 year Nostalgia/Application Game Cycle"

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

First has pretty much told us they want to keep using themes. Assuming this and the pattern is true I believe that next years game will be footballs. They would probably add a challenging endgame with this as footballs seem easy to score.


More interesting though than the game piece itself are the rules surrounding it. If we are allowed to hold 1 game piece 3 game pieces or unlimited game pieces. The GDC could recycle tubes, tetras, or giant balls and just allow us to hold 3 game pieces at a time and the robots used would change drastically.

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

What a game and robots could look like for a football themed game: https://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/s...d.php?t=140673

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

Although it doesn't quite follow your 3 year climbing cycle, 2000 had a hanging bar in the center of the field similar to 2004. (albeit, shorter)

I would also be interested in seeing games that are less focused on scoring as many points as possible, and more strategic. 2005 is probably the best example of this with its tic-tac-toe gameplay.

Giant Connect Four, anyone?
It would certainly fit the expected unusual object game piece.

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

While 2015 definitely falls into the "Lifting" category the OP laid out, but I think it more naturally fits into the "Unusual object" category. Mostly because the manipulation of the object was so unique related to the other usual objects.

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

How about Roomba Roundup?
Teams capture and place modified roombas into their corrals. The opposing alliance can steal the captured roombas and place them in their own corrals. The team with the most roombas win.

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

That's it! But instead of just collecting them, the Roombas will have to be placed to clean up corn in the corrals. The team or alliance that cleaned the most corn would win. Or maybe it would be Corn Cleanup, same as above, but without the Roombas, so the big robots do all of the cleaning(we're on our way to a paper airplane solution??). Possibly Roombas in a hard to reach area that could be used to assist if a team could deploy and activate it?

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

Didn't we already play that in 2012 for a match or so? :p

By the way, best way to play this one is with an unknown number of Roombas roaming the field, AND all different types of Roombas (and probably their cousins the Scubas--hey, gotta clean the pool somehow!) Significant bonus for getting them all to drive themselves into the corrals.

Oh, and the field gets cleaned every match, which makes field reset's "we're on break" jobs easier.

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

Altough the totes were definetly different from the ones used in 2003, I think the idea is definetly similar. You could also argue that 2011 had irregular objects with the non-circular tubes. Maybe a new classification for lifting games is an inclusion of a somewhat unusual game element.

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

Arguably, anything that isn't a ball is irregular.
'92, '93, '94, '95, '96, '98, '00, '01, '02, '04, '06, '08, '09, '10, '12, '14, and '16 all had balls in some form or another. Several years could defiantly be considered unusual because of their size (and the different approach that was required to manipulate them), but to not have some kind of ball as a game piece is most defiantly unusual.

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

Another GDC pattern I've been keeping close track of over the years that goes all the way back to the beginning:

1992: Maize Craze - Not a Water Game
1993: Rug Rage - Not a Corn Game
1994: Tower Power - Not a Water Game
1995: Ramp 'n Roll - Not a Corn Game
1996: Hexagon Havoc - Not a Water Game
1997: Toroid Terror - Not a Corn Game
1998: Ladder Logic - Not a Water Game
1999: Double Trouble - Not a Corn Game
2000: Co-Opertition FIRST - Not a Water Game
2001: Diabolical Dynamics - Not a Corn Game
2002: Zone Zeal - Not a Water Game
2003: Stack Attack - Not a Corn Game
2004: FIRST Frenzy: Raising the Bar - Not a Water Game
2005: Triple Play - Not a Corn Game
2006: Aim High - Not a Water Game
2007: Rack 'n Roll - Not a Corn Game
2008: FIRST Overdrive - Not a Water Game
2009: Lunacy - Not a Corn Game
2010: Breakaway - Not a Water Game
2011: Logomotion - Not a Corn Game
2012: Rebound Rumble - Not a Water Game
2013: Ultimate Ascent - Not a Corn Game
2014: Aerial Assist - Not a Water Game
2015: Recycle Rush - Not a Corn Game
2016: FIRST Stronghold - Not a Water Game

As you can see this pattern fluctuates every other year. If this pattern continues 2017 will not be a corn game.

Cheers, Bryan

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

So what you're telling me is... next year will be a water game :rolleyes:

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

I was looking for some cool science related things for 2017:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017

I must admit, the JAXA robot mission to the moon has me a bit concerned for the return of lunacy....

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

2010 you scored on the goals on your side of the field.

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

Not quite that strong. I believe he's conjecturing that sometime next year, at some event, there shall be played at least one match without corn on one side of the field.

An alternate conjecture:

• Odd years: not a corn game
• Even years: not a regolith game

Edit: or is it too soon?

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

But the not-a-corn game years didn't have water, and the not-a-water game years didn't have corn except for 1992...

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

Oh, please, please, GDC! Give us a corn game!

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

I think most people would say that the totes were the same idea in principle as the bins from 2003.

What I was getting at was that you can represent the pattern based on what it took to manipulate the game objects. Balls are often manipulated very similarly, tubes (regardless of shape) are manipulated with very similar claws, etc. 2015 saw interesting intakes and lift mechanisms, many of which hadn't been popular before. I don't think "unusual" necessarily means "unique".

Still, I think there is some real predictive value to your pattern, just maybe that we should keep our minds open to variations. While it looks like next year will be "unusual" again, maybe it will be "unusual" balls or something similar.

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

I see a clear trend in the number of robots per alliance each year. I think that this clearly indicates that 2017 will be the year we finally see 3.63 robots per alliance.

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

Oh its been pointed out :D

LOL^^

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

http://agmanager.info/marketing/outl...tters/Corn.asp

Clearly, FIRST is increasing their corn stocks in advance of 2017 competition season.

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

This. Why isn't logomotion U? That is the defining "unusual game piece"-type game for me.

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

Logo motion had game pieces that were similar to the tubes in 2007. As has been said previously in the thread, most frc games have game pieces that are completely different from past games but have some similarities. For example, nearly every single ball type of game uses a different type of ball. The similarities though are the mechanisms designed for the tasks. I think U or unusual games are categorized by the fact that students have to design unique mechanisms to interact with game pieces without past experience in doing so with a similar object.

Thanks for positing this- 100% will use at offseason meetings! (Also maybe to bet on next years game with some fellow students- outside school of course!)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

So this pre-season we will be discussing ways in which our robot can manipulate unusually shaped ball things while crossing carpet that is not corn water colored. All the while remembering that we will likely need to score in a fashion that will not include said ball or carpet to maximize points.

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

This year should be an unusual object game. You know what an unusual object is? Water.

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

Last year I managed to have a discussion with Frank about game design and goals. He stated that "there is no cycle" --- but --- also said that they do try to have 3 years of different game experiences since the average FRC student spends 3 years in the program. This kind of opens the door to reusing game elements/aspects every 3 years, or more.

With that in mind, and given how much field there was in 2016, I predict open/minimal structures on the field.

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

:yikes:

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

Quite often, a few basic rules lead to emergent behavior patterns that repeat with specific frequency or expand in patterns that are not at all obvious on inspection of the rules. Are you familiar with Conway's Game of Life?

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

Okay, So I've gone and made what I think is some pretty decent predictions on what next years game will contain, I'm not positive on the exacts, but we can make some clear guesses. So we can look at the past games (As we already have been):

So we can obviously assume that there are going to be balls, (although we can't completely rule it out) not only because next year's cycle position is the "unusual game piece", but because each year goes on and off ball based gameplay, the only outlier being Lunacy, which had balls, but also had the hex-based trailer targets.
However, there is a game piece I suspect we will be using in the game: inflatables, there were three years in between Rack and Roll and LogoMotion, and it's been five years since logo, I would say chances are decent for a Inflatable based game.
We can also guess that the field will be either open or have much less obstacles than the last two years. In the past, rarely was there more than a single year in between games with anymore than games with nothing more than a single large obstacle in the center of the field. In fact, the last two years have been surprising in how many obstacles have been in their games, Recycle Rush is the only game in the last 14 years to have a divider that neither team could pass (which I would argue made the game what it was: more of a puzzle than action, but that's a discussion for another thread), and after such a strange outlier in the series of games, one would expect a much more open game with stronghold, but yet again, FIRST turned the tables on us, however the defenses are not as unique as Recycle Rush's impassable divider, they're still very much more complicated than FRC's typical fare. I would say that there's a fair chance that there might be nothing on the feild this year.
Also, endgame, we can always expect endgame, but it seems to simultaneously be the easiest and hardest to predict, I would give a 75% percent chance that the endgame will have something to do with rising off the floor, whether by using a bar or lifting allied robots. It's the 25% however, that makes this fun, there have been 3 out of 12 games with endgames that weren't using rising as a main mechanic:Overdrive, Lunacy, and Rebound Rumble. They didn't come in a pattern, so trying to guess from that is useless, and all three of them use fundamentally different ideas for their endgames, I find Lunacy's the most interesting and the one I want to see replicated.

TL,DR: What we can guess is:
1. No Balls
1a. Inflatables?
2. Open field/Few obstacles
3. 75% chance of a lifting based endgame
3a. Other 25% chance unpredictable

If you notice something missing or wrong with my analysis of past years, please tell me, I plan on updating and expanding to find more exact assumptions and more subjects to observe about each game

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

Only 4 out of the past 9 games have involved a "lifting" endgame. Because so many before 2008 have involved "lifting" while less do now, and considering the fact there has also only been an endgame one out of the past three years, I would have trouble believing there is anything more than a 50% chance of a "lifting endgame". I would also argue that lifting endgame vs non-lifting endgame is not a good way to categorize endgames. I would say "scale/climb" "Get on a platform" "other" or "none" might be a better way.

"Get on a platform" includes any game where you score points by finishing in a resting position on any elevated surface. This includes any game ranging from stronghold to rebound rumble or harder in difficulty. I would consider stronghold a two endgame game (scale/climb and get on a platform)

The more significant pattern I see in the more recent years is a 3-year climb/scale cycle. Starting in 2010 (Breakaway), 2013 (Ultimate accent), and 2016 (Stronghold). Even if this ends up not being an exact pattern, in my mind it indicates there is a very low chance that the endgame will all of the sudden involve climbing/scaling two years in a row.

I more or less agree with the rest of your predictions and think this was overall very well thought out. I am just hoping there is as much strategic depth next year as there was this year. Also some more rough defense would be nice. (Football anyone?)

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

Got a few chart details for ya.

'04 was NOT a shooting game, for the robots. Herding, yes. But not shooting--for the robots. (Humans did all the scoring of small balls.) Not sure I'd class it as "many" obstacles, as the mobile goals got out of the way pretty quickly--more of a center obstacle game.

'05 endgame was not a rise-off-floor, but a "get into this zone" endgame. That particular variety of endgame also featured in '01 and '02, but hasn't been seen since as an endgame; it's an automode these days. Also, what you're calling a "Center Obstacle" happens to be a scoring position, one of 9 on the field. Probably best classed as a "many obstacle" game, because any one of the 9 could snag unwary robots.

'07 is debatable as to whether the endgame is "rise off floor" or "climb ramp". In theory, the former worked; in practice, it was the latter (with partner help).

'10 endgame was a "rise off floor" class.

Just to fill in the aforementioned '02 and '01...

'02: Zone Zeal. "Shooting" position--FYI, anything in this slot before '06 needs to be "Shooting/Dumping" due to the rules restricting shooting ('06 was the first pure shooting game). Endgame, "Get In The Zone". Field setup, OPEN; game pieces, soccer balls and mobile goals. (Yes, the goals were points in this one, as I recall.)

'01: Diabolical Dynamics. This should be in "Unusual Piece", but it doesn't fit that category as the game pieces were balls, shot and dumped and placed (depending on size--there were two sizes). "Endgame" was "Get in the Zone". Field was open with a center divider and a ramp. Now, that "endgame" is very loosely defined because the entire game was the endgame--get your robots in one zone, your goals onto the central tipping ramp, and get as many balls in or on the goals as you could, then E-stop for points multipliers. Oh, and I forgot. 4v0. You thought '15 was bad.

I could do a couple more but I've already taken enough space...



Just as a prediction, the game piece will be either traffic cones or footballs. Those two have been "on the list" for at least as long as frisbees (by "on the list" I mean "speculated as game objects").

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

The next year should be an "unusual" game. A water game would be pretty unusual? Water game 2017 confirmed!

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

Actually, by unusual (or, in my own word, Bizzaro) I was thinking of something more like this, super-sized.

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

That'd be an interesting game. Sort of like 2011, but the pieces are shaped differently and you have to score them in the right holes for points.

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

But they would double your alliance's score if you put the square peg in the round hole.

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

Would we get a bonus for putting the square peg in the round hole during build? We have a gift for that.

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

I just played a game of "Ladder Toss" this weekend for the first time, and my first thought was how neat "Bolas" would be as game pieces :)

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

Another user also noticed a correlation between the Vex Robotics Competition and FRC. Going back to 2014, each competition has shared fundamental elements. The VRC game of 2016-2017 involves throwing "stars" (aka jumbo-sized board game jacks) and inflated cubes across the field. This confirms your "unusual object" prediction.

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

On the other hand, there is a thing called confirmation bias. To some extent, I think we're all trying to stretch next year's game based on patterns that might not actually exist.

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

I saw it as a 2 year pattern of fine motor control vs gross motor control. It makes sense to use a ball with gross motor control since it works best with a highly symmetric object. Fine motor control allows for much more variety in game pieces and objective.

The observation of the 3 year climbing cycle is interesting. I hadn't noticed that but it appeara to hold so far.

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

2013 would probably love this


This might give the Aussie teams an unfair advantage


In terms of education, these cycles are a good thing, giving team members a wider exposure to different kinds of problems.

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

I certainly do not mean to question/contradict the claims from FIRST HQ that there is no pre-determined pattern. However, the ball-placement-ball-bizarro pattern has held for nearly five cycles (or a bit over five cycles if you allow that at the time, Toroid Terror was a bizarro thing) and is due for bizarro. Since its first appearance in 2004, the "robot pullup" postgame has appeared every third year for five appearances. Every even year has had solid-surface balls as the main game piece going back to 1992, and since the first introduction of a game piece which was not a solid surface ball in 1997, only one year had solid-surface-balls as the game piece, and it was the one and (so far) only non-competitive 4v0 2001 Diabolical Dynamics.

I believe that these patterns are examples of "emergent behavior". Emergent behavior in the natural world includes such things as atoms, molecules, crystals, convection, turbulence, life, tropical storm systems, the ENSO (El-Nino Southern Oscillation), tectonic plates, planets, stars, galaxies, and galactic clusters. None of these are obvious from the fairly simple laws of physics, but they all result from them. Likewise, I believe that the patterns we see are the result of the GDC's general desire to keep the challenges changing from one year to the next, and to keep teams (particularly students) from seeing a problem that they saw recently.

On the matter of "obstructions", it appears that the GDC treats this as a secondary (or tertiary) consideration. Still, it does appear that they try to not do the same thing over and over.

Looking at all of this, and making some SWAGs (Scientific Wild A$$ Guesses) as to how the patterns will continue, here's my call:

Bizarro game: 85+%. That is, there will be some completely new attribute to the 2017 game that will make many/most teams ask "How the *!$% do we do that?" on kickoff day. Previous examples have included Frisbees (and a multi-stage climb), regolith, tetras, 4V0, and (back in 1997) the first-ever non-ball game pieces.
Solid-surface Ball game: < 15%. The last odd-year solid-surface ball game was 2001. 'Tain't likely, Fibber!'
Robot-pullup endgame: < 20%. We just did this.


As far as the "theme" of the game, I definitely expect one. FIRST has done all of the same things as last year (partner with Disney, and have a "teaser" rather than a "game hint"). I expect that we will not have a game hint (which always were clues to the NAME of the game, not its content), but a teaser in which we will be supplied with the game theme and name, but nothing clear as to what will be required to play the game.

On that last point, the only element of the 2016 game hint video that might have been a clue to the game dymanics was the darkening of the sky and the brightening of the lights on the robot warrior. The value of robot-mounted cameras was certainly significant, but not as strong as many of the predictions, which would have had the robots working inside a tower or other construction, completely out of sight of the drivers. The obstructions to vision, bad as they were, were not as bad as the CD predictions.

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

I agree on the teaser being likely.

But I strongly disagree on the game hint being a clue to the name of the game and not the content. Very, very strongly. I'll go into detail about one hint in particular, with more on request.

For example, 2006's hint, if read correctly, detailed much about the game itself, and how it played. "A game piece obsessed with a shovel's show" was the second line--if you caught that "spade" is a synonym for "shovel", and David Spade is known for the show "Just Shoot Me", the hint indicated something being shot. (Which was a first for game pieces.) The other two lines revealed something about the game as well--but that second line was figured out within about a day of hint release. (Not that anybody knew that until Kickoff.)

Want me to go on in more detail? Of the rest since '03 (inclusive), only 3 were aimed primarily at the game name, and two of those included possible content clues. Three I can't recall the hints ('12, '13, '15); the rest were targeted at game content--with one exception, '08 #3, being the scrambled password to the Game Manual (and even that had a slight hint to the gameplay).

Now, with the trailers being the new normal, I suspect that name and theme will be the primary conveyances. And I do hope that "New Dozer" returns in all of them...

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

I should have said recently. I have only been aware of the game hints for 2014 onward as they happened, and had only read about two older ones; I guess that other years didn't get any catchy spotlight posts:

• 2015: Hint video - change is coming, recycle of game manual. The setting was an FRC arena, but it was generic (gray carpet, IIRC), not showing any game-specific elements.
• 2014: Numeric sequences of birthdates and records for assists in several sports. The thing they called an assist in AA was not like an assist in any of the sports referenced.
• 2011: Two hints:
  • Photo of Little Eva, modified to fool TinEye. Her biggest hit was Locomotion.
  • Low-res image of the FIRST logo.
• 2009: Photo of lunar moth.

+1

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

I really don't know where that one's coming from. 'Twas an Opah, or moonfish. Theme hint.

And for 2011, you should know that poles were a key part of the game (there was a column in Hint #1), and the scoring pieces were FIRST logo pieces. Theme/gameplay hints.;)

On further recollection, 2012's hint was a list of donated parts for fields from one supplier. Collective "huh?", not useful for game name, theme, or play.

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

And did any of these tell you anything about the game? Honestly?

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

The REAL question isn't did they tell CD anything about the game, it's did they tell CD anything actionable about the game?

To answer your question, yes for 2011 and no for 2009 (unless you count the theory that fish scales meant slippery surface, which as I recall was postulated). Actually, 2009 #2 was more informative, telling at least two key elements of the game (Zamboni factory is kind of a good hint as to slick surface).

To answer the other question, nope. Anything released in a game hint is subject to enough misinterpretation and "nah, they'll never do that" to deflect any possibility of something being actionable. The really good one was 2010 #2, showing the center-field gate and trip guards (in CAD)--everybody thought the trip guards were targets initially (except for folks who'd done field setup/teardown/reset and actually paid attention to the trip guards).

Re: FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory
 

/subthread