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SoftwareBug2.0 20-03-2016 00:56

PNW District Championship Projections
 
With only two weeks of district competition left it's time to project the field. Thanks to Navid Shafa for reminding me.

I've done this the last two years:
2015: http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...d.php?t=135841
2014: http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...d.php?t=128388

The methodology hasn't changed, for details see the previous threads. Best of luck to everyone still competing.

Key:
Code:

in=will have enough points to make it in
out=won't make it
~in=probably going to have enough points
~out=probably won't have enough points
bubble=could easily go either way

Code:

Best-case points to make it to district cmp: 37
Worst-case points to make it to district cmp: 97
Best estimate: 52
{'bubble': 50, 'out': 25, '~in': 36, '~out': 37, 'in': 10}
0      in      1983 - Skunk Works Robotics
1      in      2522 - Royal Robotics
2      in      4061 - SciBorgs
3      in      3238 - Cyborg Ferrets
4      in      4911 - CyberKnights
5      in      5920 - VIKotics
6      in      3663 - CPR - Cedar Park Robotics
7      in      2147 - CHUCK
8      in      3711 - Iron Mustang
9      in      4205 - ROBOCUBS
10      ~in    2928 - Viking Robotics
11      ~in    2557 - SOTAbots
12      ~in    3826 - Sequim Robotics Federation "SR...
13      ~in    2930 - Sonic Squirrels
14      ~in    4726 - Robo Dynasty
15      ~in    4980 - Canine Crusaders
16      ~in    1425 - Error Code Xero
17      ~in    1318 - Issaquah Robotics Society
18      ~in    4450 - Olympia Robotics Federation
19      ~in    1778 - Chill Out
20      ~in    1595 - The Dragons
21      ~in    5450 - St. Helens Robotics and Engine...
22      ~in    4915 - Spartronics
23      ~in    3223 - Retrobotics
24      ~in    4488 - Shockwave
25      ~in    4077 - M*A*S*H
26      ~in    2907 - Lion Robotics
27      ~in    1258 - SeaBot
28      ~in    4125 - Confidential
29      ~in    5942 - Warriors
30      ~in    2149 - CV Bearbots
31      ~in    4089 - Stealth Robotics
32      ~in    5827 - Code Purple
33      ~in    5803 - Apex Robotics
34      ~in    2944 - Titanium Tigers
35      ~in    2046 - Bear Metal
36      ~in    2471 - Team Mean Machine
37      ~in    5495 - Aluminati
38      ~in    5588 - Holy Names Academy
39      ~in    955 - CV Robotics
40      ~in    949 - Wolverine Robotics
41      ~in    2926 - Robo Sparks
42      ~in    4513 - Circuit Breakers
43      ~out    4495 - Tigers
44      ~out    1294 - Top Gun
45      ~in    1540 - Flaming Chickens
46      ~in    3786 - Chargers
47      out    6129 - Shadle Park
48      ~out    2923 - Aggies
49      bubble  5468 - Retro-bots
50      ~out    4682 - BraveBots
51      bubble  5975 - Beta Blues
52      ~in    5085 - LakerBots
53      bubble  5937 - MI-Robotics
54      bubble  2910 - Jack in the Bot
55      ~out    4173 - Bulldogs
56      ~out    4180 - Iron Riders
57      bubble  997 - Spartan Robotics
58      bubble  4131 - Iron Patriots
59      ~out    3586 - Pride in the Tribe-Caveman Rob...
60      ~out    2903 - NeoBots
61      ~out    3712 - RoboCats
62      ~out    4608 - Duct Tape Warriors
63      bubble  3393 - Horns of Havoc
64      ~out    4683 - Full-metal Robotics
65      out    3070 - Team Pronto
66      bubble  4469 - R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial In...
67      bubble  2990 - Hotwire
68      out    4120 - Jagwires
69      out    3220 - Mechanics of Mayhem
70      out    4512 - BEARbots
71      bubble  1510 - Wildcats
72      out    2148 - Mechaknights
73      bubble  3574 - HIGH TEKERZ
74      out    568 - Nerds of the North
75      out    488 - Team XBot
76      out    4030 - NullPointerException
77      bubble  753 - High Desert Droids
78      bubble  3673 - C.Y.B.O.R.G. Seagulls
79      bubble  2374 - Crusader Bots
80      out    492 - Titan Robotics Club
81      bubble  4692 - Metal Mallards
82      out    2976 - Spartabots
83      bubble  3674 - 4-H Clover Bots
84      bubble  2412 - Robototes
85      bubble  2733 - Pigmice
86      bubble  3221 - KM Royals
87      out    6076 - Mustangs
88      bubble  5970 - BeaverTronics
89      bubble  4309 - 4-H Botsmiths
90      out    2605 - Sehome Seamonsters
91      bubble  4051 - Sabin-Sharks
92      bubble  4043 - NerdHerd
93      out    4082 - Ranching Robots
94      bubble  360 - The Revolution
95      bubble  4662 - Byte Sized Robotics
96      bubble  5941 - SPQL
97      bubble  3787 - Wild Robotocats
98      bubble  5956 - Falcons
99      bubble  948 - NRG (Newport Robotics Group)
100    out    3693 - GearHead Pirates
101    bubble  3588 - the Talon
102    bubble  2906 - Sentinel Prime Robotics
103    bubble  4132 - Scotbots
104    out    3268 - Vahallabots
105    bubble  4110 - DEEP SPACE NINERS
106    out    3789 - On Track Robotics
107    bubble  2635 - Lake Monsters
108    bubble  2002 - Tualatin Robotics
109    bubble  3684 - Electric Eagles
110    out    3681 - Robo-Raiders
111    out    1899 - Saints Robotics
112    bubble  4681 - Murphy's law
113    bubble  5683 - RAVE
114    bubble  2811 - StormBots
115    out    4918 - The Roboctopi
116    out    4104 - Blackhawks
117    bubble  2521 - SERT
118    ~out    5977 - Rosemary Anderson H S/POIC
119    bubble  3781 - Cardinal 4-H Robotics
120    out    3575 - OK Aggies
121    ~out    5939 - Lakes Lancers
122    bubble  4654 - Mountaineers
123    bubble  2927 - Pi Rho Techs
124    bubble  3219 - TREAD
125    bubble  4060 - S.W.A.G.
126    bubble  3812 - Bits & Bots
127    bubble  2980 - The Whidbey Island Wild Cats
128    bubble  3192 - Tiger Bytes
129    bubble  4461 - Ramen
130    bubble  3237 - Bionic Braves
131    out    3876 - Mabton LugNutz
132    out    5111 - SaxonBots
133    ~out    5748 - Adna Pirates
134    ~out    4127 - LoggerBots
135    ~out    2929 - JAGBOTS
136    ~out    847 - PHRED
137    ~out    3218 - Panther Robotics
138    out    2660 - Pengbots
139    ~out    1571 - CALibrate Robotics
140    ~out    5295 - Aldernating Current
141    ~out    2915 - Riverdale Robotics/Pandamonium
142    ~out    2555 - RoboRams
143    ~out    2942 - Panda ER
144    ~out    957 - SWARM
145    ~out    4579 - RoboEagles
146    ~out    5198 - Knight Tech
147    ~out    1359 - Scalawags
148    ~out    1432 - Metal Beavers
149    ~out    2411 - Rebel @lliance
150    ~out    2550 - Skynet
151    ~out    3024 - My Favorite Team
152    ~out    3049 - BremerTron
153    ~out    3131 - Gladiators
154    ~out    3576 - Clover Park High School Warrio...
155    ~out    3636 - Generals
156    ~out    3831 - Da Bears
157    ~out    4057 - STEAMPUNK - Klamath Basin Robo...


Maria S 20-03-2016 21:19

Re: PNW District Championship Projections
 
Team 3831 da bears should probably be out instead of ~out because they didn't even show up to their cwu regional (and their other one I think)

Otherwise, this looks exciting! My team is on the ~in list so that's always good.

SoftwareBug2.0 21-03-2016 00:09

Re: PNW District Championship Projections
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Maria S (Post 1560187)
Team 3831 da bears should probably be out instead of ~out because they didn't even show up to their cwu regional (and their other one I think)

Otherwise, this looks exciting! My team is on the ~in list so that's always good.

That's too bad about 3831. Looking at results manually it seems they were indeed a no-show at their second event too so I guess they're toast.

Interestingly, there are way more teams this year that are actually playing both of their events in the last two weeks. That makes projecting the lineup a little more challenging than usual.

Mr V 21-03-2016 01:16

Re: PNW District Championship Projections
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by SoftwareBug2.0 (Post 1560266)
That's too bad about 3831. Looking at results manually it seems they were indeed a no-show at their second event too so I guess they're toast.

Interestingly, there are way more teams this year that are actually playing both of their events in the last two weeks. That makes projecting the lineup a little more challenging than usual.

Yes unfortunately 3831 didn't show up at CWU or AMV. They were no shows last year as well.

The reason that so many more teams are not playing their first match until week 4 is the fact that the OR events are weeks 2,4,5 this year and last year they were 1,3,5. So most of the teams that haven't played yet are from OR. With the switch to 4 W. WA events instead of 5 and the E. WA events moving to weeks 1,3 instead of 2,4 that means more of the WA teams have played both of their events by week 3.

InFlight 21-03-2016 08:12

Re: PNW District Championship Projections
 
The Easter weekend, and just the single event this week might be another factor pushing a lot of teams into the last weekend.

AaronSchmitz 21-03-2016 18:57

Re: PNW District Championship Projections
 
Chairman's still automatically advances, right? So that would bring 2557 (~in), 4125 (~in), 1540 (~in), and 3574 (~bubble) to in along with 4911 and 1983 which are already in.

SoftwareBug2.0 21-03-2016 21:42

Re: PNW District Championship Projections
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by AaronSchmitz (Post 1560678)
Chairman's still automatically advances, right? So that would bring 2557 (~in), 4125 (~in), 1540 (~in), and 3574 (~bubble) to in along with 4911 and 1983 which are already in.

Correct.

Ian Curtis 21-03-2016 22:21

Re: PNW District Championship Projections
 
How many points does it think the cutoff will be? Has it done a decent job at predicting the points required in previous seasons? I think it was 64 last year & 58 the year before when the dust settled (some declines maybe?). If that benchmark is holding about true, it's probably useful for teams to set their goals & expectations as things move forward.

Thanks for doing this!

SoftwareBug2.0 21-03-2016 23:00

Re: PNW District Championship Projections
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Ian Curtis (Post 1560782)
How many points does it think the cutoff will be? Has it done a decent job at predicting the points required in previous seasons? I think it was 64 last year & 58 the year before when the dust settled (some declines maybe?). If that benchmark is holding about true, it's probably useful for teams to set their goals & expectations as things move forward.

Thanks for doing this!

Here's what the results looked like:

2015:
2 weeks out: 62
1 week out: 62
Actual: 64

2014:
2 weeks out: 56
1 week out: 55
Actual: 58

It's a small sample size but it does seem to be a little bit biased toward making low estimates.

SoftwareBug2.0 21-03-2016 23:05

Re: PNW District Championship Projections
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Ian Curtis (Post 1560782)
How many points does it think the cutoff will be? Has it done a decent job at predicting the points required in previous seasons? I think it was 64 last year & 58 the year before when the dust settled (some declines maybe?). If that benchmark is holding about true, it's probably useful for teams to set their goals & expectations as things move forward.

Thanks for doing this!

And I forgot to add: it's already listing what it thinks that the cutoff might be:

Code:

Best-case points to make it to district cmp: 37
Worst-case points to make it to district cmp: 97
Best estimate: 52


Navid Shafa 23-03-2016 13:45

Re: PNW District Championship Projections
 
Thanks for doing this again Eric!

Nuttyman54 23-03-2016 14:04

Re: PNW District Championship Projections
 
Good stuff, Eric!

I'm curious about some of the details of your methodology that I didn't see in your previous posts. Are you taking into account dead points from 3rd plays and un-winnable awards? For example, as far as I can tell, Philomath won't be giving out a Rookie All-Star award, so those 8 points are guaranteed gone from the district.

SoftwareBug2.0 23-03-2016 14:37

Re: PNW District Championship Projections
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Nuttyman54 (Post 1561932)
Good stuff, Eric!

I'm curious about some of the details of your methodology that I didn't see in your previous posts. Are you taking into account dead points from 3rd plays and un-winnable awards? For example, as far as I can tell, Philomath won't be giving out a Rookie All-Star award, so those 8 points are guaranteed gone from the district.

The methodology is based only on how many total points teams have earned at different events. It takes no other data whatsoever into account.

Here's the basic idea:
-If you've only played one event it estimates an upper bound for points earned at your second as the best that any team has done at an event when one of them was equal to or worse than your first event.
-Similarly, it guesses a lower bound for points based on the worst a team has done that has had an event that's at least as good as your first

After it has ranges for each team, it uses those to create ranges that the point cutoff could be. Then for each team, it compares their range to where the point cutoff could be.

So it doesn't explicitly take into account how many points there are left. However having lots of plays left will change the estimate of where the cuttoff will be by making the bounds wider. So for example, a team might go from listed as "~in" to "in" without a change in either the number of points they've earned or the best guess of where the cutoff will be just because more teams have played events.

So for this year there are two things that are really a big deal as far as trying to get an accurate result:

-There are so many teams that haven't played any event yet. At the moment, teams that haven't played at all are assumed to be exactly average, which obviously wrong. In past years there's only been maybe 1 team that didn't play till the last two weeks, so this didn't really matter.

-The official ranking page's event results are known to be wrong. They haven't fixed they issue about how they account for ties properly. They just give a bonus to the team's overall total rather than correcting the event score. See here: http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...hreadid=146151. This throws off the estimates because the system is based on comparing event results.

SoftwareBug2.0 27-03-2016 00:14

Re: PNW District Championship Projections
 
With just one week left, it's time for an updated set of projections:
Code:

Best-case points to make it to district cmp: 41
Worst-case points to make it to district cmp: 92
Best estimate: 54
{'bubble': 44, 'out': 37, '~in': 37, '~out': 27, 'in': 13}
0      in      1983 - Skunk Works Robotics
1      in      2522 - Royal Robotics
2      in      3238 - Cyborg Ferrets
3      in      4061 - SciBorgs
4      in      2046 - Bear Metal
5      in      4911 - CyberKnights
6      in      4488 - Shockwave
7      in      5920 - VIKotics
8      in      3663 - CPR - Cedar Park Robotics
9      in      2147 - CHUCK
10      in      3711 - Iron Mustang
11      in      4205 - ROBOCUBS
12      in      2928 - Viking Robotics
13      ~in    2557 - SOTAbots
14      ~in    3826 - Sequim Robotics Federation "SR...
15      ~in    2930 - Sonic Squirrels
16      ~in    4726 - Robo Dynasty
17      ~in    4980 - Canine Crusaders
18      ~in    2990 - Hotwire
19      ~in    1425 - Error Code Xero
20      ~in    955 - CV Robotics
21      ~in    1318 - Issaquah Robotics Society
22      ~in    4450 - Olympia Robotics Federation
23      ~in    1778 - Chill Out
24      ~in    1595 - The Dragons
25      ~in    753 - High Desert Droids
26      ~in    5450 - St. Helens Robotics and Engine...
27      ~in    4915 - Spartronics
28      ~in    5085 - LakerBots
29      ~in    3223 - Retrobotics
30      ~in    2811 - StormBots
31      ~in    4077 - M*A*S*H
32      ~in    2907 - Lion Robotics
33      ~in    3574 - HIGH TEKERZ
34      ~in    1258 - SeaBot
35      ~in    4125 - Confidential
36      ~in    5942 - Warriors
37      ~in    2149 - CV Bearbots
38      ~in    4089 - Stealth Robotics
39      ~in    5827 - Code Purple
40      ~in    5803 - Apex Robotics
41      ~in    997 - Spartan Robotics
42      ~in    2944 - Titanium Tigers
43      ~in    1510 - Wildcats
44      ~in    2471 - Team Mean Machine
45      ~in    5495 - Aluminati
46      ~in    5588 - Holy Names Academy
47      ~in    949 - Wolverine Robotics
48      bubble  2926 - Robo Sparks
49      ~out    4513 - Circuit Breakers
50      ~out    4495 - Tigers
51      ~out    1294 - Top Gun
52      ~in    1540 - Flaming Chickens
53      ~out    4682 - BraveBots
54      ~in    3786 - Chargers
55      out    6129 - Shadle Park
56      ~out    2923 - Aggies
57      bubble  5468 - Retro-bots
58      bubble  5975 - Beta Blues
59      bubble  5937 - MI-Robotics
60      bubble  2910 - Jack in the Bot
61      ~out    4173 - Bulldogs
62      ~out    4180 - Iron Riders
63      bubble  4131 - Iron Patriots
64      out    3586 - Pride in the Tribe-Caveman Rob...
65      out    2521 - SERT
66      out    847 - PHRED
67      out    2903 - NeoBots
68      out    3712 - RoboCats
69      out    4608 - Duct Tape Warriors
70      bubble  3393 - Horns of Havoc
71      bubble  3024 - My Favorite Team
72      out    4683 - Full-metal Robotics
73      out    3070 - Team Pronto
74      bubble  4469 - R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial In...
75      out    4120 - Jagwires
76      out    3220 - Mechanics of Mayhem
77      out    4512 - BEARbots
78      out    3812 - Bits & Bots
79      out    2148 - Mechaknights
80      out    568 - Nerds of the North
81      out    488 - Team XBot
82      out    4030 - NullPointerException
83      bubble  3673 - C.Y.B.O.R.G. Seagulls
84      bubble  2374 - Crusader Bots
85      out    492 - Titan Robotics Club
86      bubble  4692 - Metal Mallards
87      bubble  2411 - Rebel @lliance
88      out    2976 - Spartabots
89      bubble  3674 - 4-H Clover Bots
90      bubble  2412 - Robototes
91      bubble  4057 - STEAMPUNK - Klamath Basin Robo...
92      bubble  2733 - Pigmice
93      bubble  3221 - KM Royals
94      out    6076 - Mustangs
95      out    5198 - Knight Tech
96      bubble  5970 - BeaverTronics
97      bubble  4309 - 4-H Botsmiths
98      out    2605 - Sehome Seamonsters
99      bubble  4051 - Sabin-Sharks
100    bubble  4043 - NerdHerd
101    out    4082 - Ranching Robots
102    bubble  360 - The Revolution
103    bubble  4662 - Byte Sized Robotics
104    bubble  5941 - SPQL
105    bubble  3787 - Wild Robotocats
106    bubble  5956 - Falcons
107    bubble  1432 - Metal Beavers
108    bubble  948 - NRG (Newport Robotics Group)
109    out    3693 - GearHead Pirates
110    bubble  1359 - Scalawags
111    bubble  3588 - the Talon
112    bubble  2906 - Sentinel Prime Robotics
113    bubble  4132 - Scotbots
114    out    3268 - Vahallabots
115    bubble  4110 - DEEP SPACE NINERS
116    out    3789 - On Track Robotics
117    bubble  2635 - Lake Monsters
118    bubble  2002 - Tualatin Robotics
119    bubble  3684 - Electric Eagles
120    bubble  2550 - Skynet
121    out    3681 - Robo-Raiders
122    out    1899 - Saints Robotics
123    bubble  4681 - Murphy's law
124    bubble  5683 - RAVE
125    out    3192 - Tiger Bytes
126    out    4918 - The Roboctopi
127    out    4104 - Blackhawks
128    ~out    5977 - Rosemary Anderson H S/POIC
129    out    4127 - LoggerBots
130    bubble  3781 - Cardinal 4-H Robotics
131    out    3575 - OK Aggies
132    ~out    5939 - Lakes Lancers
133    bubble  4654 - Mountaineers
134    out    957 - SWARM
135    bubble  2927 - Pi Rho Techs
136    bubble  3219 - TREAD
137    ~out    4060 - S.W.A.G.
138    ~out    2980 - The Whidbey Island Wild Cats
139    ~out    4461 - Ramen
140    ~out    3237 - Bionic Braves
141    out    3876 - Mabton LugNutz
142    out    5111 - SaxonBots
143    ~out    5748 - Octo π Rates
144    ~out    3049 - BremerTron
145    ~out    2929 - JAGBOTS
146    ~out    3218 - Panther Robotics
147    out    2660 - Pengbots
148    ~out    3636 - Generals
149    ~out    1571 - CALibrate Robotics
150    ~out    5295 - Aldernating Current
151    ~out    2915 - Riverdale Robotics/Pandamonium
152    ~out    2555 - RoboRams
153    ~out    2942 - Panda ER
154    ~out    4579 - RoboEagles
155    ~out    3131 - Gladiators
156    ~out    3576 - Clover Park High School Warrio...
157    ~out    3831 - Da Bears

Note that the official district ranking system still contains manual point adjustments which are not reflected in this calculation.

InFlight 27-03-2016 13:29

Re: PNW District Championship Projections
 
Too hard even guess now, we will have to wait for Oregon City and Auburn to finish. There's a lot of traditionally strong teams that need a good performance in week 5 to return to the district championships.

Team 1510 Wildcats won the Philomath Chairman Award and are officially "in".


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