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PNW District Championship Projections
With only two weeks of district competition left it's time to project the field. Thanks to Navid Shafa for reminding me.
I've done this the last two years: 2015: http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...d.php?t=135841 2014: http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...d.php?t=128388 The methodology hasn't changed, for details see the previous threads. Best of luck to everyone still competing. Key: Code:
in=will have enough points to make it inCode:
Best-case points to make it to district cmp: 37 |
Re: PNW District Championship Projections
Team 3831 da bears should probably be out instead of ~out because they didn't even show up to their cwu regional (and their other one I think)
Otherwise, this looks exciting! My team is on the ~in list so that's always good. |
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Interestingly, there are way more teams this year that are actually playing both of their events in the last two weeks. That makes projecting the lineup a little more challenging than usual. |
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The reason that so many more teams are not playing their first match until week 4 is the fact that the OR events are weeks 2,4,5 this year and last year they were 1,3,5. So most of the teams that haven't played yet are from OR. With the switch to 4 W. WA events instead of 5 and the E. WA events moving to weeks 1,3 instead of 2,4 that means more of the WA teams have played both of their events by week 3. |
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The Easter weekend, and just the single event this week might be another factor pushing a lot of teams into the last weekend.
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Chairman's still automatically advances, right? So that would bring 2557 (~in), 4125 (~in), 1540 (~in), and 3574 (~bubble) to in along with 4911 and 1983 which are already in.
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How many points does it think the cutoff will be? Has it done a decent job at predicting the points required in previous seasons? I think it was 64 last year & 58 the year before when the dust settled (some declines maybe?). If that benchmark is holding about true, it's probably useful for teams to set their goals & expectations as things move forward.
Thanks for doing this! |
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2015: 2 weeks out: 62 1 week out: 62 Actual: 64 2014: 2 weeks out: 56 1 week out: 55 Actual: 58 It's a small sample size but it does seem to be a little bit biased toward making low estimates. |
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Best-case points to make it to district cmp: 37 |
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Thanks for doing this again Eric!
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Good stuff, Eric!
I'm curious about some of the details of your methodology that I didn't see in your previous posts. Are you taking into account dead points from 3rd plays and un-winnable awards? For example, as far as I can tell, Philomath won't be giving out a Rookie All-Star award, so those 8 points are guaranteed gone from the district. |
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Here's the basic idea: -If you've only played one event it estimates an upper bound for points earned at your second as the best that any team has done at an event when one of them was equal to or worse than your first event. -Similarly, it guesses a lower bound for points based on the worst a team has done that has had an event that's at least as good as your first After it has ranges for each team, it uses those to create ranges that the point cutoff could be. Then for each team, it compares their range to where the point cutoff could be. So it doesn't explicitly take into account how many points there are left. However having lots of plays left will change the estimate of where the cuttoff will be by making the bounds wider. So for example, a team might go from listed as "~in" to "in" without a change in either the number of points they've earned or the best guess of where the cutoff will be just because more teams have played events. So for this year there are two things that are really a big deal as far as trying to get an accurate result: -There are so many teams that haven't played any event yet. At the moment, teams that haven't played at all are assumed to be exactly average, which obviously wrong. In past years there's only been maybe 1 team that didn't play till the last two weeks, so this didn't really matter. -The official ranking page's event results are known to be wrong. They haven't fixed they issue about how they account for ties properly. They just give a bonus to the team's overall total rather than correcting the event score. See here: http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...hreadid=146151. This throws off the estimates because the system is based on comparing event results. |
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With just one week left, it's time for an updated set of projections:
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Best-case points to make it to district cmp: 41 |
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Too hard even guess now, we will have to wait for Oregon City and Auburn to finish. There's a lot of traditionally strong teams that need a good performance in week 5 to return to the district championships.
Team 1510 Wildcats won the Philomath Chairman Award and are officially "in". |
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