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[FiM] Michigan State Championship Preview
Welcome to the most anticipated district event of the season! The 2016 Michigan State Championship is the second most selective event all year (24.8% of Michigan teams made it vs. 19% of world teams to the Championship), and the second most selective MSC of all time (2014: 23.1%).
I’d be remiss if I didn’t discuss how this selectiveness has changed Michigan FRC history. There are 12 teams that have qualified for every MSC: 27, 33, 67, 70, 494, 503, 548, 573, 1718, 1918, 2337, and 2834 (3539 gets an honorable mention, having made it every year since their 2011 inception). This set dropped in size by 2 this year, with 245 and 469 failing to qualify. 245 will attend the Championship anyway due to a regional win, but the Guerrillas will be missed in both Grand Rapids and St. Louis. The last time fewer than ¼ of Michigan teams had the opportunity to attend MSC, FiM found a new venue to hold more teams. With FRC in Michigan continuing to grow at a prodigious rate, FiM must be looking for the next location, although I can’t think of many locations that could fit an event of that magnitude (ideally 140+ teams with the capacity for more). For now, we return to Grand Rapids, the Deltaplex, and its 102 teams. Many of these teams have already been through the ringer. 48 of them will enter the elimination rounds, and 3 will emerge victorious. Lots of teams will come in feeling confident, and for most that’ll be snuffed out. A full ⅓ of the field (37 teams) has been the captain or 1st pick of a district champion alliance. That expands to 67 teams if you include all the captains and 1st picks of finalist alliances. No amount of accolades or medals can carry you through the Michigan State Championship. My strategy tips won’t carry you either, but maybe they’ll help. Qualification Strategy This section is pretty obvious because MSC-quality teams are pretty good. The breach is a given. With relatively little defense, captures will be crazy common. These assertions are supported by the aggregated TBA Insights data from the past three weeks of Michigan events as well as the three District Championships last weekend. As a region, PNW is probably similar to Michigan in strength (due to the crazy growth in Michigan the past few years). However, MSC is a much more selective district championship (25% vs 40%). Still, they're the closest point of comparison. Most teams have preferred shooting modes (low or high, location), and they’ll stay with those throughout quals. Teams with a choice between going high and low will want to adjust accordingly to ensure the capture. With captures being common, winning the match will have more importance to seeding here than at any other event (even CMP). Still, even if captures were guaranteed in every match, there would still only be as much quals defense as a regular W-L-T seeding game. Playoff Strategy Strategy in elims has gotten more and more complicated throughout the season. There’s no single key to winning, no one piece of advice I can give you. In my search for answers I looked at the differences between district champion alliances and finalist alliances. At most events, the finals are competitive, and the finalists could have won if things had fallen their way. I took a close look at how the performances of the alliances changed from the quarter/semifinals to the finals. Champion alliances averaged 7.87 balls and 46% capture rate prior to finals and 7.87 balls and 47% capture rate in the finals. Basically, they did exactly the same. Finalist alliances, however, dropped from 7.04 to 6.19 balls and 33% to 19% capture rate. What’s the takeaway? The best alliances are unaffected by any opponents and seem to avoid problems of random chance. Finalist alliances typically have hit some critical pitfall. At East Kentwood, 2474 had a pair of drivetrain failures that knocked them out. At Woodhaven, 27 had a number of uncharacteristic misses (which you’d blame on defense, but they looked to have 50 lb on their defender). Maybe the most mind-boggling was the 40 points of fouls racked up by the Troy finalists in two matches. Once you add in the finals tortuga in Lansing, you start to get the picture. Winners avoid failures of all kinds. If you’re an alliance captain, your choice for first pick will be driven by very conventional statistics/scoring output. Once you make it back for the second pick, however, you’ll have lots of similarly good choices (although likely as not no diamond in the rough like 3098 last year). In this case more than any other, you need to avoid failures from all your alliance members. If you’re not already scouting tortugas and robot failures (times when a robot ends a match unable to drive), you’re going to be behind your peers. Additionally, you’ve got to get a rock solid auton. Every team at MSC has the ability to score balls, but your third team has to be able to defend too, and be able to transition from one to the other when necessary. In some ways, the third team needs to play smarter than the top two bots, paying more attention to the clock and the score (not that I have any great suggestions for scouting this.. Maybe make potential partners’ coaches take IQ tests). Power Rankings As in previous years, I’ve polled 13 individuals, Michigan’s foremost experts as well as a few guest voters. Voters ranked their top 15 teams. Those teams were allotted points based on their ranks, with points decreasing from 18 points for a #1 ranking going down exponentially to 6 points for a #15 ranking (yes, this is pretty arbitrary). Here are the results: Team (First place votes) - Points - Commentary
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We may only be 75th in the state after two disappointing quarterfinal rounds, but I promise that our first ever MSC elimination performance will be one to remember. (well, maybe. Unfortunately, 7 kids can't do a whole lot)
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" 107 got the result you always want at West Michigan, where they knocked off the #1 alliance for the district win. However, they suffered accuracy problems and will hope to improve in that area."
First, thanks for the great insight on the MSC. It is great when mentioned and motivating when not, it always a win win. Our team accuracy problem had more to do with the boulder going through one side and out the other, which I think we have fixed. Our bigger problem was the speed in which are arm would raise, also fixed. These were simple fixes. So, with a few week from our last competition team 107 decided to " hang out" and make some improvement to the end game. https://youtu.be/llLjAPCKATc |
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A few things have really stood out to me this season within the state and they are all sort of tied together. I have been really impressed by the emergence of a few of the younger teams from the west side and northern areas of the state and how it appears to have shifted the balance of power from the Southeast Michigan teams. 3357, 3620, 2771, among others have really emerged this season and have really pushed the region to improve by leaps and bounds. I think this improvement will really play out at MSC. Last season I thought the move to expand the event left it pretty diluted and I think there was a little bit of a drop off in quality in the back half of the draft at the event. This season that will definitely not exist. There are going to be some VERY strong teams falling to the bottom alliances on the draft.
The increase in districts has really helped raise the bar of the second tier of teams. Where before some of the younger teams would go years without ever getting the chance to captain an alliance, adding so many events has given these teams more chances to improve and learn the intricacies of playing deep into eliminations. Learning how to win is an important skill for teams to develop and they are getting more and more chances to do so. This is going to play out with a bunch of new teams captaining alliances at the state. The ones that can correctly identify how the eliminations will play out and adjust their alliances accordingly will be rewarded. |
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[FiM] Michigan State Championship Preview
Hmm so 2834 has a slow vision tracking shot huh... I'd like to say that no, we aren't using vision tracking in teleop and secondly we had proven that we can move our shot around and finally, did I mention that auton works now ;) should be interesting to see how the predictions match up!
2012 - member of 2834 2013 - electrical and mechanical function 2014 - driver, mechanical, and drivetrain 2015 - driver, drivetrain, mechanical knot tying 2016 - captain, mechanical, drivetrain |
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There are so many amazing and close teams at MSC this year I'm going to make a bold prediction. The MSC Winners we be from a double digit alliance (10-16)
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Doubt it. Only possible way is 33 and 67 since 2767 will pick 27
E/ totally misread that. Still doubt it. So many good teams |
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A high seeded Alliance might not get the best offensive robot of the bunch, but they can sure pick up a strong defensive one no matter where they are in the draft. |
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MSC Alliance selection results
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1 2767 33 1684The 25th seed became an alliance captain. |
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Octofinal? Shouldn't it be something like sesunciafinal.
Octo is 8, sesuncia is 1/8. Semifinal, Quarterfinal, Sesunciafinal. Of course the next level would be semisesunciafinal which is a bit of a mouthful. Apparently octofinal is what they use at the North American Debating Championships which means that this matter must be up for debate. |
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1 2767 33 1684 W |
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Mostly agree with above, though I think 5460s alliance should be able to get out of quarters (though I am a bit biased :D)
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Whoa!
Congratulations on 5048-548-217 on the upset. Don't think anyone expected that. |
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I said that our first msc elimination performance wouldn't be forgotten. I'm not wrong. |
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With a field this deep, being a higher seed can be a disadvantage. That 3rd robot is more important than ever in this year's game.
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Champs will be interesting to see. I would predict very little #1 seeds getting to Einstein. The fields wont be as deep with 8 divisions and unless the higher seeds can get a good 3rd robot, it wont be enough. *Exceptions being one of the very few powerhouse teams. |
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There was nothing wrong with the alliance. Both 1684 and 33 missed their climbs. (Also, our freshman driver had never played defense before in his life ::rtm:: )
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HOT, Rush, and Fighting Pi (27, 67, 1718) just got a new world high score of 230 in a SF tie breaker match.
Edit: Apparently the score is higher and TBA hasn't updated yet. Well, 230 is the high score for MSC, at least. |
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Also, I told you my sophomore boys were going farther than quarters... 100% accuracy today |
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Edit: And did the stream go offline for everyone? |
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Same here... dead going into finals
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Very Choppy stream, but robozone is still up http://www.robozonetv.com/live-stream
Edit: Stream is back up, but robozone is a good backup if it goes down again. |
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Interesting recall on that first finals match. As it was described it should have been a field fault. If the ref panel failed that's a field fault.
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Congrats to 27, 67, 1718, and 6086 on a hard-fought win! This entire event has been crazy competitive, kudos to them for a good win.
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Easily the best MSC finals since 2010 (maybe ever). Congrats to the champions! Incredible matches in every round
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Dang.
We accidentally shot when we were about to climb and it messed up the extension of the arm. Funny that both the team that I'm on and the team that I mentor got knocked out due to failed climbs. Oh well, 5460 the silver kings (0-4). Congratulations to 27, 67, and 1718 |
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Wow, the fight for the last district point spot went down to the 6th tie-breaker and was awarded to the 76th ranked team.
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Since this seems to be the default thread for MSC-related topics (get on your game Michigan!!!) I wanted to ask how long we have to wait before the official televised coverage of the event is released! Ever since 2011, there has been an hour long broadcast covering the later playoff matches - usually seen on Detroit Public TV. I watched the live stream from RoboZone for a little bit yesterday, but the audio was very choppy. Will the coverage be coming from RoboZone or from DPTV, or both this year?
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The stream was a different type of roboZone. The episode on Sunday will be the same style (recording, format, analysis, etc) as the district episodes were (to the best of my knowledge)
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If anyone wants a lesson on how to play some intense defense in Stronghold, be sure to check out the jobs that both 6086 and 5150 did in the finals. The amount of disruption and havoc they handed out was absolutely game-changing.
I want to send a special thanks to our alliance partners. Thanks to 6086 for stepping in when we needed them most, and providing a performance that made a win possible. 1718 was, somehow, a sleeper that we were more than excited to pick up so late in the draft. 67, it's pretty wild to think that we've somehow never played in the elims together, maybe we should try it more often? Thanks to all volunteers as well. Without you such great events simply aren't possible. |
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I also want to thank all the volunteers - while no one was thrilled about how late everything ran, they had to stay even later to pack everything up. Thanks for all your hard work and dedication to putting on a great event. |
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What a weekend. I had a blast. Winning MSC is a dream I've been chasing since 2009 and it felt so good to finally achieve that. Thanks to all the volunteers who made this event happen, to the sponsors who supported the event, and to FiM for putting on quite the show. I look forward to watching the 1 hour special coverage.
27 - 20+ years playing in MI without an alliance together? It finally happened! 3 years in a row in the finals at MSC and 2 wins speaks to the caliber of team that RUSH has really become. Thanks for selecting us. It was great to work with you again. I enjoyed winning with the same people I knew when I was a student and meeting the new ones that have helped the team become what it is today. The number of alumni you retain is remarkable. 1718 - What a steal of a pick, can't believe you were still there. You guys rocked and we would never have set the MI high score without your super accurate defense shot. I hope you can resolve your drive train issues for St. Louis. 6086 - Wow. You earned the win. What an phenomenal performance from a rookie team. When I heard Pi was out I thought it was over for us. So glad you proved me wrong. 5150 - Most consistent and clean defense I saw in the playoffs. You cut down our scoring like no one else could have without drawing the multitude of penalties so many other teams got. You put together an alliance that proved you have better scouting and sense of how the game will play out than many other teams your age. 5460 - I knew how awesome you guys were when I saw you put up 9 high goals in a qualifying match. What a fantastic robot. I'm glad I got a chance to talk to some of your mentors before alliance selection. You seem like you have it together and I look forward to seeing what comes out of your team in the future. 2137 - A gamble of a pick after the robot issues you faced in qualifying - but you pulled it off. When you're on you are on. And you killed it throughout the entire playoffs. Glad you were able to get everything together. Great performance. Also congrats to Andrew Spiece - an award well deserved. |
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And on 6086's behalf, we would've been very happy to grab them as a third partner if the rest of the draft had unfolded a bit differently as well. |
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I have to say the amount of talent at this competition was stellar and the entire competition was full of excitement. I am still very surprised that there were no more upsets in the playoffs besides the one big and obvious one.
The ranking system seemed to carry a lot of teams towards the top and also push a lot of talented teams deep in the rankings. This made scouting more important then any other year before and made alliance selection very very interesting to watch. Congrats to 27, 67, 1718, and 6086 on a fantastic win! |
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