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-   -   Lopsided Divisions (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showthread.php?t=147675)

evanperryg 25-04-2016 17:37

Re: Lopsided Divisions
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by wjordan (Post 1578824)
Then it'd drop to (roughly) 2.6 standard deviations below the 2015 CMP mean, so let's not.

The fact that it is affected that much by one team says something :p that division was pretty sad.

Ether 25-04-2016 17:54

Re: Lopsided Divisions
 

Related discussion going on over here.


qzrrbz 26-04-2016 00:42

Re: Lopsided Divisions
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Richard Wallace (Post 1578789)
I think this could happen, but disagree that it is most likely. The way to bet would be on a #1 alliance that includes 254 moving on to Einstein. The seven other alliances will be very strong and will do their best to achieve a different outcome, but the favorite is still the favorite.

If you are just saying the favorite's chances are less than even, I agree with that.

it might be the case that a stronger division makes the fickle finger of scheduling malaise that much more potent, as one star + two less stellar up against 2 stars + reasonable is more of an ambush. i'd argue that makes the "favorite" less odds on to run the table and end up as #1 seed. off to do the numbers to prove that :rolleyes:

JeffB 26-04-2016 09:33

Re: Lopsided Divisions
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Citrus Dad (Post 1578894)
It's important not to confuse "random" with "fair" or "balanced." Random is a description of a process, not a value statement on an outcome. I think of random in these situations more at "arbitrary" although its better for the distribution to divisions (with 600 teams) than for match scheduling (with only 10 matches).

It's really not all that important. The argument posed in this thread is the random process is the most fair process. You can evaluate the process and make a value statement based on that process versus other possible ways to split the teams. As even you admit the small sample size makes it difficult to assign quality scores to teams, that makes it much more difficult to find a measured solution that treats teams fairly. Without having a good system to do so, it's much more fair to remain random.

Citrus Dad 26-04-2016 15:34

Re: Lopsided Divisions
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by JeffB (Post 1579248)
It's really not all that important. The argument posed in this thread is the random process is the most fair process. You can evaluate the process and make a value statement based on that process versus other possible ways to split the teams. As even you admit the small sample size makes it difficult to assign quality scores to teams, that makes it much more difficult to find a measured solution that treats teams fairly. Without having a good system to do so, it's much more fair to remain random.

I didn't say that the small sample size makes it difficult to assign quality scores to teams. While there is certainly some error margin around the final results in any regional, those results do a reasonable job of sorting teams from high to low. If you don't agree with that premise, then you have have to reject the notion that the Championships bring together the best teams in general and we should just simply randomly draw from all FRC teams.

If you believe that most of the best FRC teams are being qualified for Championships, then we can create the basis for ranking those teams using information from the competitions in which they qualified. The district points system, which is used to qualify teams for subchampionships, is a reasonable proxy for that ranking.

And as I stated, an equal burden of proof resides on those supporting the current random system to show that it is fair. No one has shown that's the case that I've seen so far.

Christopher149 26-04-2016 18:25

Re: Lopsided Divisions
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by evanperryg (Post 1578456)
60 2015 arc -2.114657663723039

Stop quantifying things I don't want to admit!

Is that why we managed to be an alliance captain?

efoote868 26-04-2016 18:46

Re: Lopsided Divisions
 
Thinking about division assignment once again, I think I disagree with the idea that there needs to be (if I can coin the phrase) parity of ability between the teams that make up divisions.

Robots and drivers are not static through the season, let alone a single competition. I think that makes the idea that the parity of ability between divisions can be equalized ridiculous.

Left To Beaver 26-04-2016 22:27

Re: Lopsided Divisions
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by BrennanB (Post 1578821)
Being in a deep division just means you have a better chance at doing well.

Being in a weak division just means it's harder to get that golden second pick steal. (Because the 3rd robot is what wins/loses championships at this level.)

Well, even 2015 Archimedes let 3996 get scooped up by Bedford at the 24th pick despite being a top-15 (and possibly top-10) robot on the division. Our alliance was able to pick 4213, a reliable two-stack chute loader, at the 30th spot. They were good enough that our alliance captain graciously chose to play them in our second elim match rather than themselves, and we put up 182 points without getting any center cans.

Scout well and there will be solid robots in the later rounds of any event. Also, after watching 110+ matches of that division, I feel I should get a spot on the support group steering committee :p

ahartnet 29-04-2016 14:36

Re: Lopsided Divisions
 
Not that we need another stat to show how stacked newton is, but through roughly 7 qual matches in all the divisions I notice that Newton has 7 teams with goal points exceeding 400 (and 1241 is pretty close to 500). The rest of the divisions have 2 teams (Hopper/Tesla/Carver) 1 team (Galileo/Carson) or 0 teams (Archimedes/Curie) that have over 400 goal points.

I'd be interesting to look at some of those stats after all the qual matches are done.

IronicDeadBird 29-04-2016 14:58

Re: Lopsided Divisions
 


Oh RNG how you toy with me...

Ether 30-04-2016 12:55

Re: Lopsided Divisions
 
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CloakAndDagger 30-04-2016 17:50

Re: Lopsided Divisions
 
Newton Out, Tesla is about to take it all, poofs got upset.

*Throws bracket out window*


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