Chief Delphi - Upset Percentage

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Chief Delphi (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/index.php)

- Championship Event (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=12)

- - Upset Percentage (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showthread.php?t=147967)

Gogoyogert

11-05-2016 14:23

Re: Upset Percentage

Here is a spreadsheet I made for English class with all the upsets from the past 4 years: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

Rangel(kf7fdb)

11-05-2016 14:32

Re: Upset Percentage

Something I think a lot of teams did across the board for champs that might not be ideal was scouting defense crossings and using that to help calculate overall scores for robots. We opted to not even scout crossings since the breach is guaranteed at the championships level. That being said I wish we did scout crossings just so we can compare what our overall scores list would look like when comparing crossings vs without crossing. I would imagine teams that focus more on poaching the enemies secret passage would move up in our scouting ranking vs teams that cycle.

GeeTwo

11-05-2016 15:28

Re: Upset Percentage

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gogoyogert (Post 1585918)

Here is a spreadsheet I made for English class with all the upsets from the past 4 years: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

The numbers on the total do not match the individuals. Looks like you missed three upsets on Galileo on the total?

Gogoyogert

11-05-2016 15:32

Re: Upset Percentage

Looks like your right. Thanks for point that out! I'll update it right now.

Gregor

11-05-2016 16:22

Re: Upset Percentage

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gogoyogert (Post 1585918)

Here is a spreadsheet I made for English class with all the upsets from the past 4 years: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

I wish I could have done something that cool for English class...

Ether

11-05-2016 16:42

Re: Upset Percentage

Quote:

Originally Posted by AndyBare (Post 1580964)

Does anyone have a percentage of all elimination matches, within all divisions, and extending onto Einstein, that were upsets (lower seed beating higher seed)?

To answer that question definitively, perhaps a SQL guru will write a script to query Jaci's 2016 SQL database.

Nate Laverdure

11-05-2016 17:30

Re: Upset Percentage

Quote:

Originally Posted by Caleb Sykes (Post 1581268)

I didn't think I would ever see a reverse perfect bracket. That is ridiculous.

There are only 2^7=128 possible elim outcomes. TBA lists 142 events in 2016 alone. It's likely to happen at some frequency.

Whatever

11-05-2016 17:52

Re: Upset Percentage

Handy table for the odds of a perfect reverse bracket
50% odds of underdog winning-->Once every 128 tournaments
45% --> once every 268 tournaments (roughly 2 years)
40% --> once every 610 tournaments (roughly 4 years)
35% --> once every 1554 tournaments (roughly 10 years)
30% --> once every 4572 tournaments (roughly 30 years)
25% --> once every 16,384 tournaments (roughly 100 years)
20% --> once every 78,125 tournaments (roughly 600 years)

markmcgary

11-05-2016 18:46

Re: Upset Percentage

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ether (Post 1585954)

To answer that question definitively, perhaps a SQL guru will write a script to query Jaci's 2016 SQL database.

That sounds like a challenge. According to my query, there were 720 upsets out of 2273 playoff matches. This does not count ties where the fouls determined the outcome. I checked this against Einstein and it looks accurate.

Code:

select matches.event, events.name, match_levels.name, matches.set_number, matches.match_number,

red_scores.total_points as red_points, blue_scores.total_points as blue_points from matches

inner join events on matches.event = events.id

inner join match_levels on matches.match_level = match_levels.id

inner join match_scores as red_scores on matches.id = red_scores.match

inner join match_scores as blue_scores on matches.id = blue_scores.match

where match_level > 1

and red_scores.alliance_color = "red"

and blue_scores.alliance_color = "blue"

and blue_points > red_points

and events.is_official = 1

order by matches.event

Edit: You can add one upset for Einstein Final Match 3 which I know was tied. That makes 31.7% playoff upsets.

Edit 2: I added some logic to figure out upsets that were tie scores. That added 7 total upsets. 32%. Interestingly, 4322 won an upset on a tie at OCR QF2-1. That match now shows in the results.

Code:

and (blue_points > red_points or (blue_points = red_points and blue_scores.foul_points > red_scores.foul_points))

antman

12-05-2016 18:44

Re: Upset Percentage

Quote:

Originally Posted by markmcgary (Post 1585969)

Code:

and (blue_points > red_points or (blue_points = red_points and blue_scores.foul_points > red_scores.foul_points))

You are assuming the blue alliance is always the lower-seeded alliance. This isn't always the case. For example:

<http://www.thebluealliance.com/match/2016pncmp_f1m1>

we were on the red alliance even though we were the #5 alliance going against the #2 alliance.

markmcgary

12-05-2016 19:55

Re: Upset Percentage

Quote:

Originally Posted by antman (Post 1586265)

That could certainly impact the results. I thought that red was always the higher seeded alliance and alliances sometimes change bumper colors during playoffs to maintain that relationship. I'd have to study the database design more deeply to determine the relationships between the matches, alliances and their seeding. I took the easy way assuming (incorrectly?) that blue was always the lower seed. The SQL will get more ugly. I wonder how significant will be the impact on the percentage?

Ether

12-05-2016 20:04

Re: Upset Percentage

Quote:

Originally Posted by markmcgary (Post 1586281)

I'd have to study the database design more deeply to determine the relationships between the matches, alliances and their seeding.

The "alliance_picks" table has the alliance seeding.

EricH

12-05-2016 20:06

Re: Upset Percentage

Quote:

Originally Posted by markmcgary (Post 1586281)

Easy way to do it: Red is from the highest seed in that branch of the bracket (1-8/4-5|2-7/3-6), regardless of if that seed moves on. #8 has red over #2, should they meet in finals.

Thus, #1 is always red. #8 is blue, but can take over red if they beat #1. #2 is red, unless they're in finals; #7 is blue unless they beat #2. #3 is red against #6, and blue otherwise (#6 is always blue). #4 is red against #5, blue for semis, and red for finals (while #5 is blue unless they're in finals).

Or, to put it another way:
Alliance: QFs, SFs, Fs (assuming they make it that far)
#1: R, R, R
#2: R, R, B
#3: R, B, B
#4: R, B, R
#5: B, B, R
#6: B, B, B
#7: B, R, B
#8: B, R, R

Best reason to be on the #1 alliance, you don't change your bumper color. (OK, so #6 has the same perk...)

CalTran

12-05-2016 20:19

Re: Upset Percentage

Quote:

Originally Posted by EricH (Post 1586286)

#6: B, B, B
Best reason to be on the #1 alliance, you don't change your bumper color. (OK, so #6 has the same perk...)

Some robots just look better in blue anyways.

orangemoore

12-05-2016 20:43

Re: Upset Percentage

Quote:

Originally Posted by CalTran (Post 1586288)

Some robots just look better in blue anyways.

254.

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