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TheBoulderite 20-06-2016 19:33
IRI 2016 Predictions
 
I haven't seen one yet, so I decided to make one. It's less than a month away, and it seems like a great time to start predicting what will happen at the 2016 Indiana Robotics Invitational. Who will win? What memorable things will happen? You can guess on this thread. Here's my two cents.

First of all, the team list for this year looks stacked. Among all of the teams that qualified, there are 55 regional/district event winners, 32 regional/district event finalists, 9 district champions, 5 district championship finalists, 13 division champions, 10 division finalists, 3 Einstein finalists, and 3 world champions. That's quite the lineup.

Going into IRI, the teams are happy to see each other. Teams from the same area help each other out, teams from the same division say hello to each other, and the mood is competitive, but also friendly.

All compete well in the qualifications, with the new tower strength of 12 being an interesting challenge for many teams. At the end of the quals, the top 8 teams pick their alliances, and choose names for themselves.

1. 2056-5172-3620-3683 (Name: OP Dave's Average Gators)
2. 330-2481-1086-1511 (Name: Rolling Blue Beach-ateers)
3. 1241-610-1477-25 (Name: The Theory of Texan Coyotes (feat. Team 25))
4. 118-67-1011-910 (Name: The Hot Robo-crush Freeze)
5. 179-1619-233-2826 (Name: Children of the Pink Creek Wave)
6. 195-225-16-2451 (Name: Cyber Pwnage Bomb Fire)
7. 868-1024-71-3824 (Name: HVA Techa-hamma-bytes)
8. 27-133-217-1675 (Name: Bert's Ultimate Thunder Rush)

During alliance selection, things get interesting. The entire championship-winning alliance, sans 120, reunites. 1241 picks 610, then uses a magic potion developed after 2013 to summon 1477 and their robot to play with them in the eliminations. 179 picks another team from Florida, then two teams with water-related names. 195 puts together a high-scoring alliance, while 868 puts together a mainly Indiana-centric alliance. 2056 takes some of the best performers from the quals.

The quarterfinals occur. 1 beats 8 in some very close matches, and 6 upsets 3 after the potion wears off and 1477 disappears. During the 4 v. 5 matches, the crowd gets confused when 179 brings a live alligator onto the field and 1619 brings a bucket of water. The alliance then shows off a new autonomous mode where 1619 fills the moat with water and 179 throws the alligator into the moat. The alligator then attempts to eat the opposing alliance, taking bites out of 1011 and 118. Although 910 freezes the moat with an ice cannon during the next match, 5 moves on to the semis. 2 overcomes 7 after some crazy matches, and the semis matchup is set.

The semis are crazy. Much to everyone's disappointment, 5172 has no alligators with them, and in some very intense matches 179's alliance takes it to three. During the tiebreaker, 233's defense proves to be the reason that 179 advances to the finals. The championship-winning alliance finds a worthy opponent in 195's alliance, falling to them in the tiebreaker by less than ten points.

The finals arrive. Two very strong alliances prepare to face off. The tension is in the air. 179 sends themselves, 1619, and 233 onto the field. 195 sends themselves, 225, and 16 to represent their alliance.

Finals 1 begins. 195 makes both of their two shots during autonomous, and both 225 and 16 make theirs. 179 and 1619 both make their shots, and 233 crosses the defenses. Despite the fact that both 179 and 1619 make all of their shots during teleop, 195's alliance puts more boulders into the tower. Further, 233 is unable to make it back to the batter in time, meaning 179 doesn't get the capture. 195's alliance takes the first round 175-250.

Finals 2 commences. 195 makes one of their shots, 225 misses, and 16 doesn't fully get over the ramparts. 179 and 1619 make the shots, while 233 crosses. During the match, 179 and 1619 put up more shots than the previous match, making all of them. Meanwhile, 195 and 225 seem to be off their mark, but still putting in quite a few boulders. 233 makes it back to the batter in time, and both 179 and 195 capture the tower. 179 scales at the last second, desperate for points. It's close, but 179 pulls out a win 245-235.

Finals 3 has 233 test their high goal autonomous. All three robots on all three alliances make their auto shots, making the game tied. Then, 233 goes to work. They play hard defense on the blue alliance, but it's difficult to stop three high goal shooters. While some of the shots are off, most make it in. Meanwhile, 179 and 1619 make all the shots they can, and put up a lot of them. During the final thirty seconds, 233 races back to the tower, and goes for the climb. 179 goes for the climb. 1619 goes for the climb. All three robots manage to scale, while only two climb 195's. The match ends and the referees convene, with the score a minute later. Due to a few defensive moves by 233, foul points are awarded to 195's alliance. It ties the score at 230-230, taking it to a fourth match.

Finals 4 sees some new developments. 179 swaps 233 with 2826 so their alliance can have three consistent high goal shooters. The match starts, with all six robots making a high goal shot. No defense is played, just each alliance shooting as many high goals as possible into the tower. The match is intense, and the scores close. Whatever 195 does, 179 responds with. Both alliances pull off a triple scale, and both weaken the tower to exactly the same number. In one of the coolest and perfectly orchestrated matches of the tournament, both alliances tie at 250-250.

Finals 5 sees 195 make their two ball auto, while all other robots make one. During the match, 16 suffers a drivetrain failure, but is pushed onto the batter by 225. However, 179's crew is unable to capitalize on it because of missed shots. Due to 195's two ball auto, the score ties again at 215-215. The driveteams of each alliance are quite exasperated by now, and the drive coaches of both sides convene to plan how to beat the other alliance.

Finals 6 has 195 swap 16 with 2451, as 16's robot is out of commission. 195 has a slight edge in auto, with scores remaining close for the entire match. 179's alliance scores one more boulder than 195's during teleop, as 2451 runs out of time and can't shoot their stored boulder during the endgame. The crowd almost can't deal with the stress and intensity as the scores tie yet again, at 225-225. Both drive teams disappear to their pits to prepare for the final match.

Finals 7. THE deciding match. 179 keeps 2826 on the field, while 2451 remains on the field for 16. 179 and 1619 break out the alligator and bucket of water once more, while 195's alliance prepares for the match. The countdown begins. "3...2...1...GO!" says the MC. As soon as the match starts, no robot goes for the high goal. 179 and 1619 fill the moat and place the alligator into it. The crowd is stunned by the other alliance's response as 225 turns into a mechanical dragon and takes flight. As soon as teleop starts, 225 goes for 2826, preparing to breath a ball of fire. Then, 2826's driveteam presses a button, and their robot turns completely into water. 225 is unable to burn up Wave, and goes for their tower instead. No matter how many boulders 1619 shoots, they are burned up by 225. The field reset crew notices and runs off to open more boxes of boulders. At this point, the MC gives up on trying to narrate the match. Seeing that their alliance needs help, 233 runs to the field with their robot, enables it, and tosses it onto the field to assist their team. 16 does the same thing moments later. 233 launches Greek fire into the tower, causing the electricity to short and the tower health lights to go off. Meanwhile, the alligator in the moat attempts to eat 195's robot to no avail, as their robot is alligator-proof. 2451 seems to be the only team that is successfully scoring points. The final thirty seconds begin, and 16 stops on the field. Their drivetrain has broken again, and people from the Bomb Squad start freaking out. 179, 1619, and 2826 climb the tower, with 233 getting on the batter under 179. 195 and 2451 make some last minute shots, and 195 climbs. 2451 climbs, and makes their endgame shot. 225 has stopped, their driveteam preparing for something truly unbelievable. With five seconds to go, 225's dragon grabs 16's robot and flies to the top of the tower with it. They set it down and transform back into a robot. With one second left, 225 grabs onto the tower and pulls up high enough to scale.

It is deathly silent in the room as everyone tries to process what just happened. The anticipation of the score keeps the room quiet, as everyone is on the edge of their seats to find out what it is. The final score arrives. By a difference of five points, Cyber Pwnage Bomb Fire wins the 2016 Indiana Robotics Invitational, with a final score of 295-300. The crowd goes wild, and no one can believe anything that just happened.

When the finals and awards ceremony conclude, the teams say a teary goodbye to each other, knowing that many of them will be attending a different championship and will never see them again.

Those are my predictions. What are yours?

TL;DR: Nope. Read the whole thing.

orangemoore 20-06-2016 19:50
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
1114.

Pauline Tasci 20-06-2016 21:03
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheBoulderite (Post 1593583)
8. 27-217-3476-1675 (Name: Ultimate Orange Thunder Rush)
Unfortunately, 3476 will not be attending IRI this year.

page2067 20-06-2016 21:11
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheBoulderite (Post 1593583)
I haven't seen one yet, so I decided to make one. It's less than a month away, and it seems like a great time to start predicting what will happen at the 2016 Indiana Robotics Invitational. Who will win? What memorable things will happen? You can guess on this thread. Here's my two cents.

First of all, the team list for this year looks stacked. Among all of the teams that qualified, there are 55 regional/district event winners, 32 regional/district event finalists, 9 district champions, 5 district championship finalists, 13 division champions, 10 division finalists, 3 Einstein finalists, and 3 world champions. That's quite the lineup.

Going into IRI, the teams are happy to see each other. Teams from the same area help each other out, teams from the same division say hello to each other, and the mood is competitive, but also friendly.

All compete well in the qualifications, with the new tower strength of 12 being an interesting challenge for many teams. At the end of the quals, the top 8 teams pick their alliances, and choose names for themselves.

1. 2056-5172-3620-3683 (Name: OP Dave's Average Gators)
2. 330-2481-1086-1511 (Name: Rolling Blue Beach-ateers)
3. 1241-610-1477-25 (Name: The Theory of Texan Coyotes (feat. Team 25))
4. 118-67-1011-910 (Name: The Hot Robo-crush Freeze)
5. 179-1619-233-2826 (Name: Children of the Pink Creek Wave)
6. 195-225-16-2451 (Name: Cyber Pwnage Bomb Fire)
7. 868-1024-71-3824 (Name: HVA Techa-hamma-bytes)
8. 27-217-3476-1675 (Name: Ultimate Orange Thunder Rush)

During alliance selection, things get interesting. The entire championship-winning alliance, sans 120, reunites. 1241 picks 610, then uses a magic potion developed after 2013 to summon 1477 and their robot to play with them in the eliminations. 179 picks another team from Florida, then two teams with water-related names. 195 puts together a high-scoring alliance, while 868 puts together a mainly Indiana-centric alliance. 2056 takes some of the best performers from the quals.

The quarterfinals occur. 1 beats 8 in some very close matches, and 6 upsets 3 after the potion wears off and 1477 disappears. During the 4 v. 5 matches, the crowd gets confused when 179 brings a live alligator onto the field and 1619 brings a bucket of water. The alliance then shows off a new autonomous mode where 1619 fills the moat with water and 179 throws the alligator into the moat. The alligator then attempts to eat the opposing alliance, taking bites out of 1011 and 118. Although 910 freezes the moat with an ice cannon during the next match, 5 moves on to the semis. 2 overcomes 7 after some crazy matches, and the semis matchup is set.

The semis are crazy. Much to everyone's disappointment, 5172 has no alligators with them, and in some very intense matches 179's alliance takes it to three. During the tiebreaker, 233's defense proves to be the reason that 179 advances to the finals. The championship-winning alliance finds a worthy opponent in 195's alliance, falling to them in the tiebreaker by less than ten points.

The finals arrive. Two very strong alliances prepare to face off. The tension is in the air. 179 sends themselves, 1619, and 233 onto the field. 195 sends themselves, 225, and 16 to represent their alliance.

Finals 1 begins. 195 makes both of their two shots during autonomous, and both 225 and 16 make theirs. 179 and 1619 both make their shots, and 233 crosses the defenses. Despite the fact that both 179 and 1619 make all of their shots during teleop, 195's alliance puts more boulders into the tower. Further, 233 is unable to make it back to the batter in time, meaning 179 doesn't get the capture. 195's alliance takes the first round 175-250.

Finals 2 commences. 195 makes one of their shots, 225 misses, and 16 doesn't fully get over the ramparts. 179 and 1619 make the shots, while 233 crosses. During the match, 179 and 1619 put up more shots than the previous match, making all of them. Meanwhile, 195 and 225 seem to be off their mark, but still putting in quite a few boulders. 233 makes it back to the batter in time, and both 179 and 195 capture the tower. 179 scales at the last second, desperate for points. It's close, but 179 pulls out a win 245-235.

Finals 3 has 233 test their high goal autonomous. All three robots on all three alliances make their auto shots, making the game tied. Then, 233 goes to work. They play hard defense on the blue alliance, but it's difficult to stop three high goal shooters. While some of the shots are off, most make it in. Meanwhile, 179 and 1619 make all the shots they can, and put up a lot of them. During the final thirty seconds, 233 races back to the tower, and goes for the climb. 179 goes for the climb. 1619 goes for the climb. All three robots manage to scale, while only two climb 195's. The match ends and the referees convene, with the score a minute later. Due to a few defensive moves by 233, foul points are awarded to 195's alliance. It ties the score at 230-230, taking it to a fourth match.

Finals 4 sees some new developments. 179 swaps 233 with 2826 so their alliance can have three consistent high goal shooters. The match starts, with all six robots making a high goal shot. No defense is played, just each alliance shooting as many high goals as possible into the tower. The match is intense, and the scores close. Whatever 195 does, 179 responds with. Both alliances pull off a triple scale, and both weaken the tower to exactly the same number. In one of the coolest and perfectly orchestrated matches of the tournament, both alliances tie at 250-250.

Finals 5 sees 195 make their two ball auto, while all other robots make one. During the match, 16 suffers a drivetrain failure, but is pushed onto the batter by 225. However, 179's crew is unable to capitalize on it because of missed shots. Due to 195's two ball auto, the score ties again at 215-215. The driveteams of each alliance are quite exasperated by now, and the drive coaches of both sides convene to plan how to beat the other alliance.

Finals 6 has 195 swap 16 with 2451, as 16's robot is out of commission. 195 has a slight edge in auto, with scores remaining close for the entire match. 179's alliance scores one more boulder than 195's during teleop, as 2451 runs out of time and can't shoot their stored boulder during the endgame. The crowd almost can't deal with the stress and intensity as the scores tie yet again, at 225-225. Both drive teams disappear to their pits to prepare for the final match.

Finals 7. THE deciding match. 179 keeps 2826 on the field, while 2451 remains on the field for 16. 179 and 1619 break out the alligator and bucket of water once more, while 195's alliance prepares for the match. The countdown begins. "3...2...1...GO!" says the MC. As soon as the match starts, no robot goes for the high goal. 179 and 1619 fill the moat and place the alligator into it. The crowd is stunned by the other alliance's response as 225 turns into a mechanical dragon and takes flight. As soon as teleop starts, 225 goes for 2826, preparing to breath a ball of fire. Then, 2826's driveteam presses a button, and their robot turns completely into water. 225 is unable to burn up Wave, and goes for their tower instead. No matter how many boulders 1619 shoots, they are burned up by 225. The field reset crew notices and runs off to open more boxes of boulders. At this point, the MC gives up on trying to narrate the match. Seeing that their alliance needs help, 233 runs to the field with their robot, enables it, and tosses it onto the field to assist their team. 16 does the same thing moments later. 233 launches Greek fire into the tower, causing the electricity to short and the tower health lights to go off. Meanwhile, the alligator in the moat attempts to eat 195's robot to no avail, as their robot is alligator-proof. 2451 seems to be the only team that is successfully scoring points. The final thirty seconds begin, and 16 stops on the field. Their drivetrain has broken again, and people from the Bomb Squad start freaking out. 179, 1619, and 2826 climb the tower, with 233 getting on the batter under 179. 195 and 2451 make some last minute shots, and 195 climbs. 2451 climbs, and makes their endgame shot. 225 has stopped, their driveteam preparing for something truly unbelievable. With five seconds to go, 225's dragon grabs 16's robot and flies to the top of the tower with it. They set it down and transform back into a robot. With one second left, 225 grabs onto the tower and pulls up high enough to scale.

It is deathly silent in the room as everyone tries to process what just happened. The anticipation of the score keeps the room quiet, as everyone is on the edge of their seats to find out what it is. The final score arrives. By a difference of five points, Cyber Pwnage Bomb Fire wins the 2016 Indiana Robotics Invitational, with a final score of 295-300. The crowd goes wild, and no one can believe anything that just happened.

When the finals and awards ceremony conclude, the teams say a teary goodbye to each other, knowing that many of them will be attending a different championship and will never see them again.

Those are my predictions. What are yours?

TL;DR: Nope. Read the whole thing.
I think you nailed it. Look forward to it playing out.

BotDesigner 20-06-2016 22:03
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
You forgot the thousands of chief delphi pages discussing the event in these following threads: we missed our flight home because somebody removed the tie-breaker rule, number 5 seed alliance used illegal uninspected mechanisms to win their matches, Team 195 used a mentor built robot dragon, team 1619 used a mentor built water bucket, Car Nack never said this was coming, field reset crew was slow in their response to the builder destruction, number 6 seed alliance should have been red carded for boulder destruction, IRI needs to move to districts, we can't have 2 IRIs, we need every FRC team to go to IRI, the field announcer should never have made that inappropriate comment ("This is lunacy!") when 195 turned into a dragon because it scared everyone who had had done FRC in 2009 out of the arena, cheesecaking pet alligators is evil, chief delphi is evil.

EricH 20-06-2016 22:08
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Unfortunately, #IRISplit and #2IRIs seem to have already happened.





*ducks and covers for a few days*


The second one is known as "IRI West", or more officially, "Chezy Champs".

frcguy 20-06-2016 22:13
Quote:
Originally Posted by EricH (Post 1593596)
The second one is known as "IRI West", or more officially, "Chezy Champs".

Dropshots fired.

Anupam Goli 20-06-2016 22:15
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
I'm gunning for 1746 to pull off a shocker and win IRI undefeated. #homerbias

Jay O'Donnell 20-06-2016 22:25
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Any thought of elims without 133 in it hurts me.

Personally hoping to see 1058 do well obviously, they definitely earned their spot this year.

I'll probably do a full elims prediction at some point when the final roster is announced.

TheBoulderite 20-06-2016 22:31
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pauline Tasci (Post 1593591)
Unfortunately, 3476 will not be attending IRI this year.
Darn! That's a shame. You guys were great this year, I'll be looking for you guys at Chezy Champs!

jajabinx124 21-06-2016 00:06
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Nice set of predictions! I like that you re-created the 2013 world winning alliance ;)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jay O'Donnell (Post 1593599)
I'll probably do a full elims prediction at some point when the final roster is announced.
I'll probably do one as well after the final roster is announced.

TheBoulderite 21-06-2016 00:28
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
I didn't know the final roster hadn't been announced yet. Oh well, guess I jumped the gun. ;)

Chris is me 21-06-2016 09:04
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
At IRI, some teams try harder than others. Everyone takes it somewhat seriously, more than any other off season, but there are some teams that relax and others that go all-out. The all-out teams tend to perform better and are more likely to win. I won't name names, but it's just something to keep in mind.

My money's on 2056 and 195. Lots of great teams that will do well here, but I expect both these teams to give it their all and to play their best matches of the season at IRI.

The last low goal robot still playing in the eliminations will be 3683, who may be an alliance captain.

Basel A 21-06-2016 09:35
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris is me (Post 1593638)
At IRI, some teams try harder than others. Everyone takes it somewhat seriously, more than any other off season, but there are some teams that relax and others that go all-out. The all-out teams tend to perform better and are more likely to win. I won't name names, but it's just something to keep in mind.
There's also a huge difference between teams that use the previous season's drivers and those that use new drivers. This varies both team by team and year by year and the effects are not easily predicted.

AWoL 21-06-2016 12:30
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheBoulderite (Post 1593583)

Cyber Pwnage Bomb Fire

...

Finals 7. THE deciding match. 179 keeps 2826 on the field, while 2451 remains on the field for 16. 179 and 1619 break out the alligator and bucket of water once more, while 195's alliance prepares for the match. The countdown begins. "3...2...1...GO!" says the MC. As soon as the match starts, no robot goes for the high goal. 179 and 1619 fill the moat and place the alligator into it. The crowd is stunned by the other alliance's response as 225 turns into a mechanical dragon and takes flight. As soon as teleop starts, 225 goes for 2826, preparing to breath a ball of fire. Then, 2826's driveteam presses a button, and their robot turns completely into water. 225 is unable to burn up Wave, and goes for their tower instead. No matter how many boulders 1619 shoots, they are burned up by 225. The field reset crew notices and runs off to open more boxes of boulders. At this point, the MC gives up on trying to narrate the match. Seeing that their alliance needs help, 233 runs to the field with their robot, enables it, and tosses it onto the field to assist their team. 16 does the same thing moments later. 233 launches Greek fire into the tower, causing the electricity to short and the tower health lights to go off. Meanwhile, the alligator in the moat attempts to eat 195's robot to no avail, as their robot is alligator-proof. 2451 seems to be the only team that is successfully scoring points. The final thirty seconds begin, and 16 stops on the field. Their drivetrain has broken again, and people from the Bomb Squad start freaking out. 179, 1619, and 2826 climb the tower, with 233 getting on the batter under 179. 195 and 2451 make some last minute shots, and 195 climbs. 2451 climbs, and makes their endgame shot. 225 has stopped, their driveteam preparing for something truly unbelievable. With five seconds to go, 225's dragon grabs 16's robot and flies to the top of the tower with it. They set it down and transform back into a robot. With one second left, 225 grabs onto the tower and pulls up high enough to scale.
That was quite possibly the most beautiful thing I have ever read.

TheBoulderite 21-06-2016 15:09
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris is me (Post 1593638)
My money's on 2056 and 195. Lots of great teams that will do well here, but I expect both these teams to give it their all and to play their best matches of the season at IRI.

The last low goal robot still playing in the eliminations will be 3683, who may be an alliance captain.
195 has an excellent shot this year. Out of all the teams with a two ball autonomous, I'd argue theirs was the most accurate. As for 2056, well, you don't win IRI three years in a row without trying. :D

As for the low goal bots, I'd argue others, like 1011 and 25, will be selected as well. Both were excellent low goal bots. Some of the most dangerous alliances at IRI will probably be two really accurate high goal shooters with a low goal bot to drop off boulders in the courtyard for the two high goal shooters to pick up.

TheBoulderite 21-06-2016 15:11
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by AWoL (Post 1593664)
That was quite possibly the most beautiful thing I have ever read.
Thank you. Glad you liked it. Now let's see it actually happen. :D

Chris is me 21-06-2016 15:41
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheBoulderite (Post 1593694)
195 has an excellent shot this year. Out of all the teams with a two ball autonomous, I'd argue theirs was the most accurate. As for 2056, well, you don't win IRI three years in a row without trying. :D

As for the low goal bots, I'd argue others, like 1011 and 25, will be selected as well. Both were excellent low goal bots. Some of the most dangerous alliances at IRI will probably be two really accurate high goal shooters with a low goal bot to drop off boulders in the courtyard for the two high goal shooters to pick up.
I'm not saying 1011 or 25 won't get picked, just that 3683 will be the last low goal robot eliminated from the event. But perhaps a low goal robot that is weaker than these three will get picked as the last backup and win it all. Who knows? Anything can happen at IRI.

nbetik 21-06-2016 15:46
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris is me (Post 1593638)

The last low goal robot still playing in the eliminations will be 3683, who may be an alliance captain.
Perhaps the only alliance captain playing defense? We did that at worlds. Otherwise, I like the original predictions in this thread.

Defense is fun.

evanperryg 21-06-2016 23:33
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris is me (Post 1593638)
The last low goal robot still playing in the eliminations will be 3683, who may be an alliance captain.
I'll second that. If they somehow fall back in the rankings, they'll be a power pick for some lower-seeded alliance to make an awesome upset.

On the topic of awesome IRI upsets

*cough*

TheBoulderite 22-06-2016 00:12
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by evanperryg (Post 1593802)
On the topic of awesome IRI upsets

*cough*
Yeah. Your alliance last year was kind of awesome.

BrendanB 22-06-2016 11:28
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
195 is on fire this year. They've been to seven events in the official and offseason winning all of them while seeding #1 at five of them.

Cyberknights will be a strong captain or one of the first few picks.

TheBoulderite 22-06-2016 15:35
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Another prediction...

No alliance at IRI will score more than 300 points.

BronzeStallion 22-06-2016 21:00
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheBoulderite (Post 1593874)
No alliance at IRI will score more than 300 points.
Well...

30 - Auto Cross
40 - Auto Boulders (someone has a 2 ball)
35 - Tele Cross (all 5 defenses damaged)
45 - 3 Scales

=150 points (Not including teleop boulders or breach/capture)

In quals:
300-150 = 150
150/5 = 30
30 boulders in the high goal during teleop

In elims:
45 - Breach/Capture
300-195 = 105
105/5 = 21
In a near perfect match in elims, Only 21 boulder need to be scored in the high goal during teleop.
That's 7 boulders each robot. Very unlikely but definitely possible.

Alex Cormier 22-06-2016 23:56
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Einstein finals match 3, the winners put in 17 high goals. That's almost double of what we usually let through our defense. 21 is possible.

Brian Maher 23-06-2016 00:14
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by BronzeStallion (Post 1593934)
In a near perfect match in elims, Only 21 boulder need to be scored in the high goal during teleop.
That's 7 boulders each robot. Very unlikely but definitely possible.
It is certainly possible. 2791 and 195 made 19 high goals in teleop at Battlecry, scoring 250 points, with only two goal-scoring robots (though 501 was helpful in getting us the breach while we scored high). While there was the open sally port, us and 195 only used it a total of twice that match.

If our high goal auto had worked and 195 had scaled that match, it would have been 270. Again, this is with only two shooting robots. 300 is definitely possible at IRI.

Chris is me 23-06-2016 09:19
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by BMSOTM (Post 1593961)
It is certainly possible. 2791 and 195 made 19 high goals in teleop at Battlecry, scoring 250 points, with only two goal-scoring robots (though 501 was helpful in getting us the breach while we scored high). While there was the open sally port, us and 195 only used it a total of twice that match.

If our high goal auto had worked and 195 had scaled that match, it would have been 270. Again, this is with only two shooting robots. 300 is definitely possible at IRI.
Plus IRI will have the rules modifications allowing for easier two ball autons. That alliance only reached 250 points, but could have had three more auton balls for 280 points. Add another hanger and you're at 290. 300 seems possible at IRI in the perfect qual match.

Besides, only one of the robots on that alliance was good enough to get into IRI :rolleyes:

Karthik 23-06-2016 09:46
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris is me (Post 1593982)
Plus IRI will have the rules modifications allowing for easier two ball autons. That alliance only reached 250 points, but could have had three more auton balls for 280 points. Add another hanger and you're at 290. 300 seems possible at IRI in the perfect qual match.
Yup, and all these projections aren't including potential foul points added to the score. Not saying 300 points will happen, but I wouldn't be surprised if it did.

TheBoulderite 25-06-2016 15:23
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris is me (Post 1593707)
I'm not saying 1011 or 25 won't get picked, just that 3683 will be the last low goal robot eliminated from the event. But perhaps a low goal robot that is weaker than these three will get picked as the last backup and win it all. Who knows? Anything can happen at IRI.
Ah, I see. I'm willing to believe that prediction. 3683 has a great bot this year.

jtrv 28-06-2016 20:42
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alex Cormier (Post 1593958)
Einstein finals match 3, the winners put in 17 high goals. That's almost double of what we usually let through our defense. 21 is possible.
Well, you averaged letting up 13.4 high goals per game at Einstein. 17 isn't really close to 27 in that perspective. You did have an incredible performance at Finger Lakes though, at an average of 2 teleop high goals during playoffs, admittedly against weaker teams than IRI caliber.

Kevin Leonard 29-06-2016 05:47
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
I'll adjust these later. Or maybe make an entirely new set of predictions. I can't resist this stuff!

1241-2056-610-3683 W
225-5172-4587-2590 F
2771-2481-1024-1747
195-1114-133-1058
118-33-2451-624 SF
1023-67-2767-1718 SF
27-16-3620-1619
330-341-2502-1640

330 and 118 decline 225
195 declines 2771

Whatever 29-06-2016 12:57
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
We get a palindrome alliance.

Some Possibilities:
27,1511,5172
2052,494,2502
2052,33,2502
2052,868,2502
610,3130,16
330,3130,33
610,330,16
45,25,5254
71,2767,217
33,1747,133
33,2767,233
1640,1310,461
1640,3130,461
330,1310,33

Karthik 29-06-2016 13:07
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Whatever (Post 1594890)
We get a palindrome alliance.

Some Possibilities:
27,1511,5172
2052,494,2502
2052,33,2502
2052,868,2502
610,3130,16
330,3130,33
610,330,16
45,25,5254
71,2767,217
33,1747,133
33,2767,233
1640,1310,461
1640,3130,461
330,1310,33
This might be the best post in CD history.

bkahl 29-06-2016 13:17
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Karthik (Post 1594894)
This might be the best post in CD history.
Someone just tapped into Karthik's inner math geekiness.. :p

thatprogrammer 30-06-2016 01:14
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
2056-195-33-20 SF
118-16-1806-3641 SF
3481-1114-1619-1310 W
1241-179-2771-4039 F
2451-2481-624-3824 QF
330-217-4587-2338 QF
67-1024-2013-2590 QF
133-225-2052-3683 QF

414cnewq 30-06-2016 13:04
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
My predictions.
1. 1241-195-27-2052 W
2. 179-2056-5460-3683 F
3. 2590-133-1640-4587 QF
4. 234-3620-217-1114 SF
5. 67-503-1718-233 QF
6. 71-1024-225-3641 SF
7. 118-1806-2451-494 QF
8. 2481-330-16-1731 QF

nikeairmancurry 30-06-2016 16:27
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 414cnewq (Post 1595045)
My predictions.
1. 1241-195-27-2052 W
2. 179-2056-5460-3683 F
3. 2590-133-1640-4587 QF
4. 234-3620-217-1114 SF
5. 67-503-1718-233 QF
6. 71-1024-225-3641 SF
7. 118-1806-2451-494 QF
8. 2481-330-16-1731 QF
1114 as a third round pick and no 33 :yikes:

Chris is me 30-06-2016 16:33
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by nikeairmancurry (Post 1595094)
1114 as a third round pick and no 33 :yikes:
There are so many good teams at IRI, there's no guarantee 1114 is a first round pick at this event. Among second round picks at IRI the last few years: 1625 in 2014, 3467 in 2013, 148 in 2012, 67 in 2011, 2056 in 2010... many many great teams fall quite far.

jajabinx124 30-06-2016 23:00
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
My IRI Predictions:

1) 2056, 195, 225, 2013 W
2) 1241, 118, 179, 3824 F
3) 217, 2481, 4039, 2338 QF
4) 67, 330, 2590, 494 SF
5) 3130, 1114, 2052, 4587 QF
6) 2451, 1806, 1718, 1619 SF
7) 1024, 16, 2826, 503 QF
8) 2468, 33, 624, 1640 QF

414cnewq 01-07-2016 00:15
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by nikeairmancurry (Post 1595094)
1114 as a third round pick and no 33 :yikes:
I did some serious number crunching, taking the stats from 2016 Championship for each team (or the final regional/DCMP stats for teams who didn't attend champs). I then took avg goal score, avg auto score, etc... (the stats from rankings on the blue alliance), and I changed all of those stats so that the highest value available (for instance, 1241's goal score of 657, highest at champs) would equal 1000. Then I took the data and got percentage values as to a "perfect" match (i.e., 30 pt auto, 12 high goals, scale... by a single team). I used that data to create a rank score, when I then took the top 8 teams and did alliance selections based on goal score (3 exceptions, I had 2481 choose 330 and added in 233 and 3683 as defensive selections).

tl;dr. I did some fancy number crunching (shown here) and then took teams based on goal score in a mock draft.

Lidor51 01-07-2016 06:53
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
1. 195, 1241, 624, 3620 W
2. 2056, 5172, 3824, 5460 SF
3. 330, 2481, 2771, 2468 F
4. 133, 118, 3683, 1619 QF
5. 217, 67, 33, 1640 SF
6. 1024, 1114, 4039, 1718 QF
7. 16, 2052, 4587, 233 QF
8. 225, 179, 27, 20 QF

Kevin Leonard 01-07-2016 07:26
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lidor51 (Post 1595159)
1. 195, 1241, 624, 3620 W
2. 2056, 5254, 3824, 5460 SF
3. 330, 2481, 2771, 2468 F
4. 133, 118, 3683, 1619 QF
5. 217, 67, 33, 1640 SF
6. 1024, 1114, 4039, 1718 QF
7. 16, 2052, 4587, 233 QF
8. 225, 179, 27, 20 QF
What
If we're the second overall pick at IRI, something went very, very wrong for at least half the robots at the event.

New predictions with the updated team list:

195-2056-133-1058
1114-67-1718-4039 SF
118-330-4587-624 W
1241-33-179-3683 F
4967-27-3641-20
225-2481-2502-5254
1024-217-1747-1619
1806-16-1023-2451 SF

EDITED with the revelation that 341 isn't going :(

jajabinx124 01-07-2016 10:30
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevin Leonard (Post 1595160)
What
If we're the second overall pick at IRI, something went very, very wrong for at least half the robots at the event.

New predictions with the updated team list:

195-2056-133-1058
1114-67-1718-4039 SF
118-330-4587-624 W
1241-33-179-3683 F
4967-27-217-20
225-341-2502-5254
1024-2481-1747-1619
1806-16-1023-2451 SF
341 is not on the final team list.

hutchMN 01-07-2016 13:50
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevin Leonard (Post 1595160)
What
If we're the second overall pick at IRI, something went very, very wrong for at least half the robots at the event.

New predictions with the updated team list:

195-2056-133-1058
1114-67-1718-4039 SF
118-330-4587-624 W
1241-33-179-3683 F
4967-27-217-20
225-341-2502-5254
1024-2481-1747-1619
1806-16-1023-2451 SF
I think you switched 2502 and 2052. 2052 is the much better team this year.

jtrv 01-07-2016 17:31
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
W. 2481, 67, 2468, 3620
F. 195, 133, 494, 5254
SF. 330, 118, 27, 1619
SF. 2056, 1241, 1023, 217
QF. 225, 1806, 1746, 2590
QF. 2451, 16, 4587, 20
QF. 3683, 179, 2052, 1718
QF. 3130, 33, 1024, 2338

I'm a big fan of 1114, but 2016 just isn't their year.

Lij2015 01-07-2016 18:33
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheBoulderite (Post 1593583)

1. 2056-5172-3620-3683 (Name: OP Dave's Average Gators)
2. 330-2481-1086-1511 (Name: Rolling Blue Beach-ateers)
3. 1241-610-1477-25 (Name: The Theory of Texan Coyotes (feat. Team 25))
4. 118-67-1011-910 (Name: The Hot Robo-crush Freeze)
5. 179-1619-233-2826 (Name: Children of the Pink Creek Wave)
6. 195-225-16-2451 (Name: Cyber Pwnage Bomb Fire)
7. 868-1024-71-3824 (Name: HVA Techa-hamma-bytes)
8. 27-133-217-1675 (Name: Bert's Ultimate Thunder Rush)


TL;DR: Nope. Read the whole thing.
I see someone is a 1086 fan! I will also eat my hat if 195 falls that far.

Liam Fay 01-07-2016 18:39
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Many are putting 5172 in their predictions - the website says that they are not going to be in attendance.

jajabinx124 01-07-2016 19:06
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Liam Fay (Post 1595257)
Many are putting 5172 in their predictions - the website says that they are not going to be in attendance.
Most likely because some people started making predictions before the final list was released.

Kevin Leonard 02-07-2016 00:00
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jajabinx124 (Post 1595169)
341 is not on the final team list.
Darn. Edited with changes.
Quote:
Originally Posted by hutchMN (Post 1595196)
I think you switched 2502 and 2052. 2052 is the much better team this year.
Depends on what you're looking for in your pick, although I certainly appreciate the modesty.

jajabinx124 02-07-2016 00:15
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevin Leonard (Post 1595298)
Depends on what you're looking for in your pick, although I certainly appreciate the modesty.
HutchMN is too modest.. :D, 2502 built a good robot as well this year!

It makes more sense to put 2502 with 225 and 2481 anyway since both of them shoot from the outerworks they may want a batter shooter for their 3rd robot.

youngace89 02-07-2016 01:34
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jajabinx124 (Post 1595302)
It makes more sense to put 2502 with 225 and 2481 anyway since both of them shoot from the outerworks they may want a batter shooter for their 3rd robot.
And one that could climb as consistently as Talon did in the Galileo playoffs. They were a very effective second pick for that alliance.

jajabinx124 02-07-2016 12:12
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by youngace89 (Post 1595311)
And one that could climb as consistently as Talon did in the Galileo playoffs. They were a very effective second pick for that alliance.
Agreed. If I counted it right during some of 2502's elims matches in Galileo they scored most of the boulders for their alliance at times and scaled consistently.

FiMFanatic 02-07-2016 12:27
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lij2015 (Post 1595254)
I see someone is a 1086 fan! I will also eat my hat if 195 falls that far.
I predict someone has to eat a hat! :D

NonStopScouting 02-07-2016 20:52
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Before I finish up prescouting and making my own prediction for alliances, here are some general predictions I have, along with some questions for the community to get a better idea of what the teams going to IRI are looking for picking wise (so I can make my predictions more accurate).

General Predictions:
  • 2056 will win (with whatever alliance they happen to be a part of)
  • Palindrome Alliance (absolutely loved that post)
  • Finals will be a game of 3 offensive bots vs 2 offensive bots and a defending bot (If Einstein ended that way, why not IRI)
  • At least two alliances will use their backup bot when none of the other robots on their alliance are broken (for strategy reasons). Expanding on this point I personally think the backup bots could be used a lot more than they are this year. For example you could have a defense bot you switch in against certain alliances, or have an outerworks shooter for when you are against defense. Especially at IRI when there will be some good robots left after alliance selection.

Questions for the IRI community:
  • Which is more valuable: Single auton high goal or scaling? They are equivalent points wise, but are they the same value for picking?
  • How does batter, outerworks, turret, and midfield shooting stack up? Is a midfield turret bot more likely to be picked than an outerworks bot?
  • At what point would you put in a defense bot? For example there isn't much point using courtyard defense against three tall outerworks bots. Would you still run another type of defense or would you only run defense against 3 midfield shooters?
By midfield shooting I mean shooting from the courtyard, but not the batter or the outerworks. That middle zone in-between the two.
Can't wait until IRI! It is going to be fun!

jajabinx124 02-07-2016 21:33
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by NonStopScouting (Post 1595375)
Questions for the IRI community:
  • Which is more valuable: Single auton high goal or scaling? They are equivalent points wise, but are they the same value for picking?
  • How does batter, outerworks, turret, and midfield shooting stack up? Is a midfield turret bot more likely to be picked than an outerworks bot?
  • At what point would you put in a defense bot? For example there isn't much point using courtyard defense against three tall outerworks bots. Would you still run another type of defense or would you only run defense against 3 midfield shooters?
By midfield shooting I mean shooting from the courtyard, but not the batter or the outerworks. That middle zone in-between the two.
Can't wait until IRI! It is going to be fun!
I think single auton high goal is more valuable because the tower strength decreases. In my opinion contributing to the capture is more important than 10 more points for scaling than challenging.

Outerwork shooters are more likely to be picked than mid-field shooters just like championships and regionals in my opinion. It's a protected zone and in order to shut down an outerwork shooter you need blocker of some sort. It forces your opponents to be creative in order to stop you, whereas with a mid-field bot all a defensive bot has to do is push you to mess up the shot. So it still remains the same to me picking wise Outerworks > Batter > Midfield. Not many teams have the ability to do this but shooting from the wall is also a great way to shoot under defense- teams like 1241 and 5172 have pulled it off very well during competition season.

I would put in a defensive bot against 3 tall outerworks shooters... especially if their alliance is non-stop cycling in boulders. Blockers can stop outerwork shooters too. I would run defense against a batter shooter as well if it was strategically advantageous. The defender basically has to make it tough as possible for the batter shooter to get on the batter when they are cycling boulders in, examples being coming in their way while they are trying to travel toward the batter.

Sperkowsky 02-07-2016 21:38
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jajabinx124 (Post 1595378)
I think single auton high goal is more valuable because the tower strength decreases. In my opinion contributing to the capture is more important than a 10 more points for scaling than challenging.
getting fouls.
The thing is a capture is going to be almost trivial for any alliance at IRI. The only matches without captures are probably going to be related to robots not getting on the batter on time.

So, from there I would check consistency. Which is higher Robot A's single ball auton consistency or Robot B's scaling consistency. Whichever one is getting those extra points more often wins.

Kevin Leonard 02-07-2016 21:40
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by NonStopScouting (Post 1595375)
Questions for the IRI community:
  • Which is more valuable: Single auton high goal or scaling? They are equivalent points wise, but are they the same value for picking?
  • How does batter, outerworks, turret, and midfield shooting stack up? Is a midfield turret bot more likely to be picked than an outerworks bot?
  • At what point would you put in a defense bot? For example there isn't much point using courtyard defense against three tall outerworks bots. Would you still run another type of defense or would you only run defense against 3 midfield shooters?
By midfield shooting I mean shooting from the courtyard, but not the batter or the outerworks. That middle zone in-between the two.
Can't wait until IRI! It is going to be fun!
These are good questions.
  • The single auto shot has the benefit of lowering the tower, but in IRI elims you should have enough teleop boulders to lower the tower anyway, and that team is likely going to score that ball the instant teleop starts. It also depends how consistent they both are, because even elite scaling bots missed climbs this season quite often.
  • I'd pick Outer Works and batter over midfield every time, and probably tall outer works over batter, although it depends on the role the robot is trying to perform, and the volume of balls they output.
  • I'd run a defensive robot if I thought they could lower the output of my opponents more than my third offense bot would add to my own offense. So short outer works shooters are prime targets, and robots that are used to running specific sets. I might also run some robots on feeding or something that's a hybrid offense/defense role of sorts.

jajabinx124 02-07-2016 21:44
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sperkowsky (Post 1595380)
The thing is a capture is going to be almost trivial for any alliance at IRI. The only matches without captures are probably going to be related to robots not getting on the batter on time.

So, from there I would check consistency. Which is higher Robot A's single ball auton consistency or Robot B's scaling consistency. Whichever one is getting those extra points more often wins.
True, but IRI may see heavy defense in eliminations making it tougher to capture in teleop so going with the single ball auton may be a safer choice but that's a weak argument because of the number of great shooters IRI contains, so I agree that the capture will be trivial for any alliance at IRI and if it comes down to that, going with whichever one is most consistent (single ball auto or scaling) is the best choice.

Koko Ed 03-07-2016 09:20
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Considering how much of a part they played on getting to Einstein and through Einstein with their intense defense I'm surprised 1405 has not made anyone's predictions. I'm sure 2056 will not pass them by.

GKrotkov 03-07-2016 11:59
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Koko Ed (Post 1595420)
Considering how much of a part they played on getting to Einstein and through Einstein with their intense defense I'm surprised 1405 has not made anyone's predictions. I'm sure 2056 will not pass them by.
Wait, do you possibly mean that strategic flexibility is a desirable trait in a 4-team alliance of which only 3 can be on the field at a time?

Mind = blown.

Gregor 03-07-2016 12:24
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevin Leonard (Post 1595381)
I'd run a defensive robot if I thought they could lower the output of my opponents more than my third offense bot would add to my own offense.
That's genius!

TheBoulderite 09-07-2016 10:10
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by NonStopScouting (Post 1595375)
Questions for the IRI community: [list][*]Which is more valuable: Single auton high goal or scaling? They are equivalent points wise, but are they the same value for picking?
As most of the teams on the list have a single high goal auton or better, you could say that scaling points will help, but the consistency of the auton will be most important.

On the other hand, my team's alliance experienced firsthand the power of scaling points during the Carson eliminations, and you could argue that scaling points will have a large impact on who wins the match.

hutchMN 09-07-2016 14:32
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Will a no-footprint scale add significant value to a team at IRI?

fishing_cat 09-07-2016 19:30
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by hutchMN (Post 1596019)
Will a no-footprint scale add significant value to a team at IRI?
What does "no-footprint scale" mean? Ty

troy_dietz 09-07-2016 19:40
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by fishing_cat (Post 1596051)
What does "no-footprint scale" mean? Ty
I would assume it refers to a robot that does not "scrape" the wall of the tower as it scales, allowing robots to scale on either side without risking a robot being pushed off. (allowing a triple scale to be much more feasible) 148, 1114, 330 and several other robots scaled away from the wall this year.

Brian Maher 09-07-2016 19:45
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by fishing_cat (Post 1596051)
What does "no-footprint scale" mean? Ty
Having just recently watched one of 2502's matches, I believe this means climbing in a way that the bottom of the robot is re-oriented to points sideways away from the tower.

Quote:
Originally Posted by hutchMN (Post 1596019)
Will a no-footprint scale add significant value to a team at IRI?
All things equal, I think this kind of scale is more valuable than a simple hang. However, I would take a consistent hang over an inconsistent no-footprint scale, unless I already have two climbers on my alliance and a triple scale would not otherwise be possible.

fishing_cat 09-07-2016 20:52
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by BMSOTM (Post 1596055)
Having just recently watched one of 2502's matches, I believe this means climbing in a way that the bottom of the robot is re-oriented to points sideways away from the tower.



All things equal, I think this kind of scale is more valuable than a simple hang. However, I would take a consistent hang over an inconsistent no-footprint scale, unless I already have two climbers on my alliance and a triple scale would not otherwise be possible.
Ah, thank you for this info!

Brian Maher 09-07-2016 21:26
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
I'm a bit late on responding to NonStopScouting's discussion questions, but here are my thoughts:
Quote:
Originally Posted by NonStopScouting (Post 1595375)
  • Which is more valuable: Single auton high goal or scaling? They are equivalent points wise, but are they the same value for picking?
My answer here is whichever is more consistent. Controlling for accuracy, I would vote high goal auto due to:
  • +1 tower damage
  • the points are locked in at the beginning of the match. A robot dying mid-match may lose the climb but cannot lose auto points
  • not scaling leaves time for an additional high goal or two, potentially making the high goal auto worth five points more than a scale without high goal auto.

Quote:
Originally Posted by NonStopScouting (Post 1595375)
  • How does batter, outerworks, turret, and midfield shooting stack up? Is a midfield turret bot more likely to be picked than an outerworks bot?
It obviously depends on the number/accuracy of high goals scored, but my general ranking looks something like this:
  1. Un-defendable outerworks shooters. While I haven't personally seen any of the IRI teams demonstrate such a shot, I've talked to a few who claim to be able to shoot over a max height defender with 15" extension from the outer works.
  2. Low catapult or tall outerworks shooters who are difficult to defend.
  3. Batter shooters, because of how difficult they are to defend once they make it to the batter
  4. Low non-catapult outer works shooters, because of how easy it can be to shut them down by sticking a defender with a wall in front of them.
  5. Non-turret courtyard shooters, because of how easy it is for a defender to push them around
I have chosen not to list turret shooters on this ranking because I think their value ranges from 2-4 depending on their time to aim and their ability to evade defenders by means such as outerworks, batter, or 179/254/1241-style wall shots.

Quote:
Originally Posted by NonStopScouting (Post 1595375)
  • At what point would you put in a defense bot? For example there isn't much point using courtyard defense against three tall outerworks bots. Would you still run another type of defense or would you only run defense against 3 midfield shooters?
Like many questions, this one can be addressed with math. I calculated the teleop high goal component OPR for each of the teams in attendance, rounded to the nearest integer, and then simuated "alliances" assuming the robots who scored the most high goals seed highest, teams pick the team available who scores the most high goals, and there are no declines:
Code:
1) 8 8 5
2) 6 6 4
3) 6 6 4
4) 6 6 4
5) 5 5 4
6) 5 5 4
7) 5 5 4
8) 5 5 4
A few observations:
  • The top alliances (1-4) will likely be able to capture with only two robots
  • The lower alliances (5-8) may have a hard time capturing, even with all three robots on offense.
  • The weakest shooter on a triple-offense strategy will average 4-5 high goals
From here, it can be concluded that defense is advisable if:
  • an alliance can capture with two offense robots
  • the defender can deny their opponents the capture OR deprive their opponents of 4-5 high goals
Based on this, playing defense will likely be advantageous for the top few alliances, and the lower alliances will need to have all three robots on offense to keep up with captures.
This simulation is obviously an over-simplification, ignoring autonomous goals and scaling points, but it gives a decent sense for the scoring ability of these alliances and how viable defense will be.

XaulZan11 09-07-2016 21:50
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
There's been a couple teams showcasing their new 2 ball autonomous modes. Is there any team (that doesn't have a consistent 1 ball) planning a defensive autonomous mode? I think it would be cool (and valuable) to see a team drive over the defense, drop their ball off and then driving back to the midline to disrupt an opponents 2 ball auto.

Kevin Leonard 10-07-2016 19:57
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by XaulZan11 (Post 1596079)
There's been a couple teams showcasing their new 2 ball autonomous modes. Is there any team (that doesn't have a consistent 1 ball) planning a defensive autonomous mode? I think it would be cool (and valuable) to see a team drive over the defense, drop their ball off and then driving back to the midline to disrupt an opponents 2 ball auto.
Alternatively, don't start with a ball, and first thing go and pick up the center ball.

That being said, teams often show things prior to competition that don't work while in the competition. We'll see if these autonomous modes actually work, and whether all the teams will be showing up on their A-game (they so rarely do).

I'm excited for another great IRI!

Cash4587 10-07-2016 20:03
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
We will likely have a 2 ball block ready for IRI. It is easy for us to do with our robot needing no modification to implement dropping the ball, then picking up the one on the center line.

Liam Fay 10-07-2016 23:54
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
My predictions are as follows:

2056 118 1024 868
133 195 2451 494
1241 3620 3130 5460
225 179 3824 71
67 1114 2052 4587
330 16 27 3641
2481 33 217 5254
3683 2771 2013 1806

Banderoonies 11-07-2016 08:03
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Anyone know where IRI will be webcast from?

Collin Fultz 11-07-2016 09:02
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Banderoonies (Post 1596218)
Anyone know where IRI will be webcast from?

http://livestream.com/indianafirst

BrennanB 11-07-2016 13:19
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
0-1 - 5 ball autons will go 5/5.

0 - 5 ball autos will affect the outcome of the match.

#predictions

Kevin Leonard 11-07-2016 17:04
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Liam Fay (Post 1596208)
My predictions are as follows:

2056 118 1024 868
133 195 2451 494
1241 3620 3130 5460
225 179 3824 71
67 1114 2052 4587
330 16 27 3641
2481 33 217 5254
3683 2771 2013 1806
Results? :P

Richard Wallace 11-07-2016 20:21
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevin Leonard (Post 1596287)
Results? :P
I predict the winning IRI alliance will include one team from Canada and one team from Michigan.

And one team from Indiana.

Rangel(kf7fdb) 11-07-2016 20:25
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Winner Prediction:
195-330-503-1086

Liam Fay 11-07-2016 21:01
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevin Leonard (Post 1596287)
Results? :P
My bad.

2056 118 1024 868 W
133 195 2451 494 F
1241 3620 3130 5460 SF
225 179 3824 71 SF
67 1114 2052 4587 QF
330 16 27 3641 QF
2481 33 217 5254 QF
3683 2771 2013 1806 QF

It's not very exciting, but with IRI's alliance rules, it's what makes sense to me.

Kevin Leonard 12-07-2016 05:51
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Liam Fay (Post 1596336)
My bad.

2056 118 1024 868 W
133 195 2451 494 F
1241 3620 3130 5460 SF
225 179 3824 71 SF
67 1114 2052 4587 QF
330 16 27 3641 QF
2481 33 217 5254 QF
3683 2771 2013 1806 QF

It's not very exciting, but with IRI's alliance rules, it's what makes sense to me.
Boringggg
Same alliances- MORE EXCITING RESULTS

2056 118 1024 868 SF
133 195 2451 494
1241 3620 3130 5460
225 179 3824 71
67 1114 2052 4587 W
330 16 27 3641 SF
2481 33 217 5254 F
3683 2771 2013 1806

133 and 195 get upset in the quarterfinals by 2481 and 33, and the 2481 alliance proceeds to sweep through the semis relatively uncontested . 4587 had been having difficulty with their 2-ball auto routine, but they pull it out in the semis and barely defeat the powerful #1 seed of 2056 and 118 when 118's 2 ball unexpectedly fails!

The finals are close, and in game 1, 4587's autonomous advantage is the difference maker. In game 2, the 7 seed switches 5254 in, who had been spending all of eliminations developing a counter-auton to 4587. They win this match by the narrowest of margins.

Finals 3 sees 2481-33-5254 against 67-1114-4587 again, and 5254 succeeds at taking the ball off the sideline from 4587, but then gets stuck on the moat during autonomous and misses their shot (It's only happened once this season, but God knows the time it would happen again would be IRI finals).
5254 dislodges themselves, but the point difference in autonomous was enough, and the 5 seed takes IRI 2016.

jtrv 12-07-2016 07:12
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Liam Fay (Post 1596208)
My predictions are as follows:

2056 118 1024 868
133 195 2451 494
1241 3620 3130 5460
225 179 3824 71
67 1114 2052 4587
330 16 27 3641
2481 33 217 5254
3683 2771 2013 1806
In what world does 1114 get picked before 2481 or 330? I'd argue that 2481 is one of, if not the, best teams this year...

Kevin Leonard 12-07-2016 07:36
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jtrv (Post 1596426)
In what world does 1114 get picked before 2481 or 330? I'd argue that 2481 is one of, if not the, best teams this year...
In the world where this is IRI and anything can happen. I'd argue 1114 was one of the best teams this year as well, and 1114 has a history of showing up strong to IRI. They've been on the 1st seeded alliance at iri for the past 3 years, and they won IRI in 2 of the past 4 years.

Additionally, these are just his predictions- maybe he has 2481 declining so they can form their own alliance or something. Who would have predicted that 1730 would seed first at 2015 IRI, or that the 8 seed would advance to semis?
Anything can happen at IRI!

jtrv 12-07-2016 09:58
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevin Leonard (Post 1596428)
In the world where this is IRI and anything can happen. I'd argue 1114 was one of the best teams this year as well, and 1114 has a history of showing up strong to IRI. They've been on the 1st seeded alliance at iri for the past 3 years, and they won IRI in 2 of the past 4 years.

Additionally, these are just his predictions- maybe he has 2481 declining so they can form their own alliance or something. Who would have predicted that 1730 would seed first at 2015 IRI, or that the 8 seed would advance to semis?
Anything can happen at IRI!
Fair points. Hmm. I probably need to ease up on some expectations this year.

thatprogrammer 12-07-2016 10:37
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jtrv (Post 1596442)
Fair points. Hmm. I probably need to ease up on some expectations this year.
Also, there is no real way to tell how good teams will be at IRI. Some teams get much better due to hardware improvements and driver practice while others get worse due to a lack of driver practice before the event.

efoote868 12-07-2016 11:05
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by thatprogrammer (Post 1596444)
Also, there is no real way to tell how good teams will be at IRI. Some teams get much better due to hardware improvements and driver practice while others get worse due to a lack of driver practice before the event.
And there are at least a few teams that use IRI as driver practice / try outs to replace graduating seniors on the drive team.

Kellen Hill 12-07-2016 11:27
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Some teams also do foolish things like building a new robot ;)

Kevin Leonard 12-07-2016 11:39
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kellen Hill (Post 1596448)
Some teams also do foolish things like building a new robot ;)
OH SHOOT SON

Jack S. 12-07-2016 12:07
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kellen Hill (Post 1596448)
Some teams also do foolish things like building a new robot ;)
Honestly though, what are those teams thinking? What a stupid idea. ;)

fishing_cat 12-07-2016 14:41
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Using pre scouting data that we collected for IRI, I based these seeds off of the 4536 scouting database, and furthermore based it off of the teams Teleop Tower Decrease at champs or last event played. I then mocked up how it would work, if I was picking bots for all teams, and included some bias that might happen as well. Overall this was quite fun! Here is my mockup of how it would look like:

179 - 195 - 330 - 1640 W
3683 - 1241 - 1806 - 233 QF
3641 - 2481 - 1114 - 2771 QF
1024 - 67 - 2052 - 910 SF
118 - 2056 - 217 - 2502 QF
494 - 868 - 16 - 1405 F
5460 - 2451 - 3130 - 2826 SF
4039 - 4587 - 27 - 1718 QF

179 - 195 - 330 - 1640
179 had averaged around 7 balls in teleop at champs according to the stats, so they get ranked #1, they pick up the 3rd ranked robot, 195, because it's 195. Then in the second round of picks, they choose 330 because they could play defense with their arm mechanism, and you know, they won Champs as well. Last pick of alliance selection they choose 1640, a nice bot with a scaler, and can shoot well.

3683 - 1241 - 1806 - 233
3683, one of the best low goal and defensive bots around ranked 2nd having weakened the tower with around 6.74 balls per match at Champs. They pick their Canadian friends 1241, because of how well the team plays with any team (and bias). In the second round they pick 1806, a team with a nice shooter and robot that can overcome almost any blocker. Finally they pick 233, another low goal bot, that will just be there as a backup defense bot, just in case 3683 losses their blocking ability.

3641 - 2481 - 1114 - 2771
3641 ranked 4th after the fictional quals, decreasing the tower by around 6.43 at Champs. They decide to pick the beasts that are 2481, the Champs at Champs. During the second round of picks, they decide to go with 1114, who finally is tuned to 99% perfection of not choking. Last but not least, they pick 2771, another bot that, when undefended, can single handedly drop 12 boulders in the tower. They pick them for defense with their intake that drops bounders into the shooter.

1024 - 67 - 2052 - 910
1024 ranked 5th putting around 6.38 boulders into the tower at Champs. They decide to go with a machine similar to 1678, and go with 67, the Mildly HOT team, if you base their number off of Fahrenheit. Their second pick is 2052, the team that knocked them out at the Carson finals. Finally they pick 910, The Foley Freeze, to play defense (And to cool down the HOT teams motors after matches). They played defense on Carver for the finals, so they know the ropes.

118 - 2056 - 217 - 2502
118 ranked 10th with 5.99, but jumped to the 5th spot because of inter picking. They pick 20566, their GTR-E buddies. 2056 was picked low because of how easily it is to block their shooter from the outerworks. They then pick 217 because it’s a tall bot, a good shooter, and they could possibly triple hang. Their last pick is 2502, a batter shooter and can play some great defense (and hang) and was the backup bot for 2056 at 2015 IRI (which they won). 2056 has an alliance that can mesh with their drive team very well, and might make it to Semis tbh.

494 - 868 - 16 - 1405
I personally like this alliance because of one thing that I say to jajabinx124 over and over again, ‘swerve drive wins championships’. 494 ranked 11th, but got seeded 6th after inter picking. They pick 868 because of their new 2 ball auto and 494’s swerve drive that won’t interfere with it. The second bot they pick is 16 because of swerve drive, shooting, defense capability, and scaling. Last they pick up a great, if not the best defense bot, 1405, to round out this alliance.

5460 - 2451 - 3130 - 2826
5460 ranked 12th, but now is the 7th alliance captain. They pick one of the best catapult teams out there, and almost undefendable from the outerworks, 2451. In the second round of picking they get 3130, another great catapult team with a tape measure scaler that is sure to wow some folks. Both 2451 and 3130 were knocked out in Tesla in the semis, on different sides of the bracket. The last pick they go for is a defensive bot, none other than 2826, looking to win at least one event this year.

4039 - 4587 - 27 - 1718
4039 ranked 16th overall, with a teleop tower decrease at 5.87 at champs, but got to be the 8th alliance captain. They pick up a steal, with 4587, a Texas team with 2 ball auto. They then pick up a team that can do the sally port, with 27 and with a heavy machine, could play hard defense. They then pick up 1718, another nice bot that won MSC with 27. This alliance wishes to out shoot the #1 alliance with this alliance.

Chris is me 12-07-2016 15:44
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevin Leonard (Post 1596423)
5254 succeeds at taking the ball off the sideline from 4587, but then gets stuck on the moat during autonomous and misses their shot (It's only happened once this season,
Don't worry, since Shaky-Breaky didn't qualify for IRI this year, so you won't have to deal with Shaker Luck this time. Bad things only happen when you're paired with 2791.

(But who predicts their own team going on to the finals? :P)

TheBoulderite 12-07-2016 16:45
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
A little off topic, but does anyone know when the schedule is released?

TDav540 12-07-2016 18:40
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
1. 2056 - 195 - 2481 - 3130 W
2. 133 - 330 - 2052 - 2614 F
3. 1241 - 118 - 1806 - 1747 SF
4. 2451 - 33 - 27 - 3824 QF
5. 3683 - 179 - 2590 - 868 SF
6. 3620 - 217 - 1619 - 233 QF
7. 16 - 67 - 1024 - 1114 QF
8. 225 - 4587 - 2468 - 1405 QF

BrennanB 12-07-2016 18:50
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by TDav540 (Post 1596503)
1. 2056 - 195 - 2481 - 3130 W
2. 133 - 330 - 2052 - 2614 F
3. 1241 - 118 - 1806 - 1747 SF
4. 2451 - 33 - 27 - 3824 QF
5. 3683 - 179 - 2590 - 868 SF
6. 3620 - 217 - 1619 - 233 QF
7. 16 - 67 - 1024 - 1114 QF
8. 225 - 4587 - 2468 - 1405 QF
Stacked :ahh: :ahh: :ahh:

TDav540 12-07-2016 18:54
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrennanB (Post 1596506)
Stacked :ahh: :ahh: :ahh:
Someones gonna slip through the draft and become and awesome pickup. Always happens :)

TheBoulderite 12-07-2016 19:01
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by TDav540 (Post 1596503)
1. 2056 - 195 - 2481 - 3130
If any alliance is to break 300 points, it would be this one.

Liam Fay 12-07-2016 19:12
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by TDav540 (Post 1596507)
Someones gonna slip through the draft and become and awesome pickup. Always happens :)
I don't think the world champion is going to be the one to slip through the draft...

I want it to happen, though, so I can see that score break 300.

TDav540 12-07-2016 19:29
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Liam Fay (Post 1596509)
I don't think the world champion is going to be the one to slip through the draft...

I want it to happen, though, so I can see that score break 300.
I was referring to 3130, but if want to talk about 2481, then the teams above them (in selection position) are 195, 330, 118 (all slam dunks), 33, 179 (high scorers with climbers), 217 (tall robot, plus climber), 67 (also excellent), and 4587 (who has a two-ball auto). While I'm not saying 2481 is definitely worse than those teams, it wouldn't surprise me to see them fall beneath each of these teams.

mipo0707 14-07-2016 07:45
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
2056 and 118 BACK AT IT AGAIN WITH THE WIN!!!!!!!!!!!!

Whatever 14-07-2016 23:20
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Whatever (Post 1594890)
We get a palindrome alliance.

Some Possibilities:
33,1747,133
So close on qual match 20.... There is no reason the software couldn't have swapped 20 in qual match 20 with 33 in qual match 22.

Liam Fay 14-07-2016 23:44
Re: IRI 2016 Predictions
 
To me, it looks like the teams with the best combination of good robot and good schedule are, in no specific order, 2056, 1241, 67, 179, and 118. I wouldn't be surprised if the top 8 includes all 5 of those teams.


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