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Best in your State/Region
Summer CD is boring, and these threads are less boring.
Who are the top 5 teams in your state/region:
I'll comment in a little bit with some data on NY, unless someone else wants to do it. |
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Sweet thread that is indeed less boring than others!
Top 5 OPR in MN: 1) 5172, 73.85 at the Newton Division 2) 2052, 57.41 at the 10,000 Lakes Regional 3) 3130, 55.11 at the North Star Regional 4) 5434, 54.41 at the 10,000 Lakes Regional 5) 4009, 52.57 at the MN State Championship I'll post the rest of the top 5's later today. |
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These are the lists for Minnesota
This year by OPR 5172 2052 3130 5434 4009 Based on this year's results at various levels 2220 2502 2052 5172 3130 This year overall 2052 5172 2502 3130 2220 Past 5 years by OPR 2052 3130 5172 2175 2502 Past 5 years by results at various levels 1816 2052 3130 2512 2175 Past 5 years overall 2052 3130 2175 2502 2512 In terms of culture 2169 5172 2175 2502 1816 It's pretty interesting how the lists have a lot of the same teams on them. |
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2-5-4! 2-5-4! 2-5-4! 2-5-4!
Seriously though, for all my fanboying 1678 is starting to give them a run for their money in recent years. They have been on Einstein more often in the last 4 years, anyway. 971 has good years and bad years, but generally remain slightly behind 1678. |
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I would say 3419. Their robot for the past two years has been solid.
Plus, they pioneered the camera pole. Who could complain? :P Also, 1796 always makes an incredible showing. Their robot this year was killer. |
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I'd post some for our little happy tribe of Kansas teams, but thankfully, someone on 1108 went ahead and did it for me. I can now officially say that I'm #4 in the state (by RP), which is a great marketing stat.
Link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...sb6Q9C1glyogac |
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In Northern California: 1678, 254, and 971. All are absolutely fantastic teams with 4 Championships, multiple division wins and dozens of regional victories between them. They are all incredibly helpful and nice, and do whatever they can to help other teams.
For culture and other awards in NorCal 1868 is pretty hard to beat, having won Chairman's 5 times in their existence and many other awards. Also, if anyone is interested I wrote a post about 1678's rise from an OK team to absolute domination. Here's the link: https://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/s...89&postcount=9 |
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Here's some OPR stats for California. It's crazy just how dominant 254 has been (and makes me wonder: is this normal in other regions too?)
2016, max OPR: 254 - 78.9 at SVR 971 - 77.1 at Sac 1678 - 70.5 on Hopper 3309 - 62.9 at Orange County 330 - 60.0 at Ventura 2016, avg OPR: 971 - 72.0 254 - 69.4 1678 - 61.7 330 - 57.3 973 - 52.2 Avg rank by max OPR, past 5 years: 254 - 1.4 (2, 2, 1, 1, 1) 1717 - 5.3 (1, 3, 8, 9, :() 971 - 5.4 (7, 10, 6, 2, 2) 1678 - 6.8 (9, 16, 3, 3, 3) 973 - 7.6 (3, 5, 13, 11, 6) Avg rank by avg OPR, past 5 years: 254 - 1.6 (2, 2, 1, 1, 2) 971 - 5 (7, 8, 5, 4, 1) 1678 - 5 (6, 11, 3, 2, 3) 1717 - 6.25 (1, 3, 7, 14, :() 1538 - 7 (12, 1, 9, 6, 7) Misc notes: - Of those 6 teams, 4 are previous world champions. 1538 and 1717 have made division finals at least once each. 254 and 1538 are also HOF teams - Of the past 5 years, only this year (2016) had a different teams holding the top max OPR and top average OPR record - Of the past 5 years, the top 3 teams for both max and avg OPR appear in the top 10 teams across all 5 years with one exception: 2485 ranked 2nd in both categories in 2014 but ranked 12th in max / 21st in avg - I used the OPR data from 2834's database, which includes OPRs from divisions but not Einstein - I excluded 2 2016 rookie teams from the top 10 avg OPR rankings (5924 at 9th, and 5818 at 11th) since I figured there wouldn't be much of a trend to see, pushing 3309 (at 12th) in - There are a lot of teams with black as their team color, so my color coordination for the plots got a bit messed up (sorry 1671 and 3309) Plots of the top 10 teams by average max/avg OPR rank over the past 5 years: Quote:
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Where can one find OPR data?
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Best in NY in 2016:
By Average OPR:
In my opinion, Overall:
Best in NY the past 5 years: By OPR:
*5254 has only been around for 3 of the 5 years in question. By Championship Results:
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By Championship Results/Performance: 1) 2052, Division W 2) 2502, Division F 3) 5172, Division SF 4) 3130, Division SF 5) 4009, Division SF By Championship Selection Order for MN: 1) 5172, 3rd overall pick 2) 2823, 4th seed captain 3) 2052/3130 (tie), 4th overall pick 4) 2987, 8th seed captain 5) 4607, 9th overall By Championship Rank: 1) 2823, ranked 4th 2) 2052, ranked 8th 3) 3130, ranked 9th 4) 5172, ranked 10th 5) 2987, ranked 11th By Regional Robot Results: 1) 5172, Regional F and W 2) 2052, Regional F and W 3) 4009, Regional W and SF 4) 2502, Regional W and SF 5) 2883/3130, Regional QF and W/Regional W and QF By Regional/Championship Award Result: 1) 2220, 2 judged awards at champs, 2 judged awards at regional, WFFA, and chairman's 2) 2052, 1 judged award at regional and chairman's 3) 4607, WFFA and chairman's 4) 2502, 2 Engineering Inspiration awards 5) 4009, 1 Engineering Inspiration award IMO, overall for 2016 (not soley based on robots): 1) 2220 2) 5172 3) 2052 4) 4607 5) 2502 Past 5 years on OPR: 1) 2169 2) 5172 3) 2052 4) 2175 5) 3130 Past 5 years championship results: 1) 2052, 1 Division W and 3 Division QF's 2) 2169, 1 Division F, 1 Division SF, 1 Division QF 3) 2512, 1 Division W and 1 Division QF 4) 2175/2502, 1 Division F and 1 Division QF 5) 3130, 2 Division SF's Past 5 years regional robot results: 1) 2052, 5 Regional W's, 4 Regional F's, 1 Regional SF 2) 2502, 3 Regional W's, 1 Regional F, 5 Regional SF 3) 3130, 3 Regional W's, 1 Regional F, 1 Regional SF, 4 Regional QF's 4) 2169, 3 Regional W's, 1 Regional F, 1 Regional SF, 4 Regional QF's 5) 2175, 3 Regional W's, 1 Regional SF, 5 Regional QF's Past 5 years regional award results: 1) 1816, 3 Chairman's and 2 EI's 2) 2220, 2 Chairman's and 2 EI's 3) 2169, 2 Chairman's and 1 EI 4) 3630, 1 Chairman's and 1 EI 5) 2052/2526/4607 (3 way tie), 1 Chairman's IMO, Past 5 years overall: 1) 1816 2) 2220 3) 2052 4) 2169 5) 2512 |
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Seriously, though, I was playing around with using the t-distribution* to predict matches and/or order sort teams so as to make for faster picklisting so it's far more convenient for me to talk about MAR using T-scores to back me up. T-scores from MAR Champs based off of Dawgma's scouting data gives me, For teleop high goals: 1) 341, t = 3.6810 2) 225, t = 2.9516 3) 3314, t = 2.9507 4) 869, t = 2.7825 5) 5895, t = 2.3754 For teleop low goals: 1) 25, t = 7.6629 (they destroyed) 2) 1257, t = 4.6518 3) 708, t = 4.5852 4) 5113, t = 4.2006 5) 1923, t = 3.5787 For overall boulder volume: 1) 25, t = 6.3270 2) 708, t = 3.2628 3) 5895, t = 3.2018 4) 3314, t = 2.8022 5) 2590, t = 2.7175 Of course, I'm still playing around and this might change. Still working on stuff. * T, not Z, because n !>=30, so CLT for means won't apply. |
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Not saying we should've been, but we were. |
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Hello again, all! I've missed you. Let's take a little detour.
I was wondering this same question to myself right after the championships: "What mountain teams were the best this year, and in years past?" However, I got carried away and I took my question further, instead asking "What team would be the best if the entire Rocky Mountain Region was in the district format during 2016?" So, I calculated by hand the number of district points each team would have received if the district system were present in the region this year. (I'm a mountain man. I don't know how to make software do things for me.) I have organized the list by the tiebreaker rules, and have come up with a very interesting result. You can find that document here. A few important things about the document:
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OPR: 1) 4451 2) 1876 3) 1102 4) 3490 5) 343 Results at various levels/overall: 1) 4451 (won Palmetto, Palmetto EI, Orlando Innovation in Control and QF, Carver Imagery Award and QF) 2) 3490 (won Rocket City with Robonauts and Bomb Squad--but hey, they did enable 100% capture along the way) 3) 343 (Palmetto finalists, Rocket City QFs) 4) 1876 (Palmetto QFs and 8 seed, Orlando semis and 7 seed) 5) 1758 (Palmetto #3 seed and QFs) Truth be told, that list is pretty close for all the other ones too. 343 has a Championship subdivision finalist in 2015 that would push them up a bit more (fourth robot, never played, but scoreboard), but they were also off the pace for a few years going back. 4451's been on a hot streak where they've been head and shoulders above everyone else in the state--one of three teams to win Palmetto back to back, WFFA, EI, RAS literally everywhere they went--and with them helping to start a team the next county over I'm on the lookout for them. 3490 is always a threat in the state, especially at SCRIW, but just now broke through by winning the last-pick lottery (which I have absolutely zero room to hate on). 1876 never gets any press or buzz, but somehow they pull a rabbit out of their hats and gets in contention even at overstuffed events like Palmetto and Orlando. |
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I'll post my analysis on MAR and New York sometime in the next day. In the meantime, I have one question about a response.
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Your analysis is pretty spot on. T/Z-scores are a nifty stat for this. I look forward to seeing how it compares to my own analysis. |
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When I was working on it initially, I realized that consistency was overvalued in the standard error statistic*, and a team that was consistently slightly better than the average team came out far ahead of everyone else, even those that had small inconsistencies but were generally better (significantly higher average.) This is because using the t-distribution isn't precisely telling us how good a team is, but rather how unlikely their performance is given that we assume that they are the average team. The way I solved this is by restricting analyses of individual fields to a select set of teams rather than all teams at the competition, which raised the average comparatively and reduced the overvaluing of absurdly consistent teams. I kept the ones with all teams analyzed, but honestly reality-checking the latter made me realize that restricting the number of teams for more specific fields could be helpful. For example, I did not include 1712's data in the high goal t-score calculations. This caused averages to change and thus some of the strange cardinal results you see in the final order sort. So, in the example of 708 and 1257: 708 has a higher average and higher standard error than 1257, so, with the low goal specific analysis the higher general average resulting from eliminating teams that aren't competitive low goalers makes standard error more important and thus 1257 does better relative to 708 in the low-goal specific one rather than the boulder volume one. * at least, overvalued for my purposes in picklisting. |
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Also, is this data from just quals, just eliminations, or both? |
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Do you have stats for climbs? Thanks, Z |
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One more list I played with- Sorted by Average OPR Rank during the past 5 years while removing each team's worst year:
*Now 5254 only has two years to calculate from, but whatever. |
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The question about 25 makes perfect sense - and it's a really good one, too. It has a multifaceted answer. For one, the t-distribution flattens out near the extremes. That means that you have to increase relatively more t-score to gain a similar amount of area under the curve. That is, t-scores don't scale linearly. A team with a t-score of 4 isn't twice as good (or even twice as unlikely) as a team with a t-score of 2. As for the spread of teams, eliminating teams with <1 low goal average really tightened the spread, rather than widening it. I haven't tried to prove it, but I imagine that this could help 25 by reducing the margins between everyone else's average and the population average. I do think that even with those mitigating factors, 25's margin over everyone else is still remarkable. This is from qualifications only. Dawgma reduced our scouting to a watchlist after we got 9 matches for each team, but I've filled out some of the scouting via recordings since then. Quote:
1/2/3) 708 [7/7], 341 [5/5], and 869 [6/6] tie with a perfect record. 4) 25 with 8/9 5) 365 with 6/7 Major caveat there, though. I didn't do the nonboulder scouting to fill out the scales, so we only have a limited # of matches to get that data from. Also, since 25 was on our watchlist we watched them more, more chance for us to catch them in a bad match. If someone else has different data, I'd go with that. |
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Here's the top five for average endgame points (scales + challenges):
If anyone else has stats requests from MAR CMP, feel free to ask and I'll see what I can do. |
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I can't remember if this originally came from Antonio or Scott, but this district point spreadsheet is pretty good at reflecting the most successful teams competition-wise in MAR over the past 5 years. 341 might be a couple spots low, since they had a great robot in 2013 and didn't attend MAR Champs that year (they were the #1 ranked team in MAR going into the event).
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For the record, in the past 5 years, 1507 was the #1 ranked team by OPR twice, 5254 was twice, and 20 was once. 1507 has maintained an awesome amount of consistency in that even in their worst years they find a way to be a contender, and in their good years they dominate. |
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If hype you must, ask, "Which NY team would have earned the most points at IRI, if IRI were a district competition?" |
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Back on topic, I've been meaning to compile stats for CT, but I don't know what kind of convenient OPR calculator everyone is using these days. Could anyone supply some links to resources I could use to gather this information? Or is it all in the cloud / online somewhere now? |
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Teams that worked for a grand total of 1 match before elims, but still got picked in the top 4, and then broke down again during elims: 1) 2502 |
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1) 2537 |
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I ranked the the top 10 in Indiana over the three district events as well as the championship event. I only counted those who ranked in the top 15 for each one and considered the OPR relative to the event. Also, the Number 1 ranked by OPR was given a slight bump. In order...
1501- By far the most consistent, got OPR 1 in 3 events 1024- Consitently got 2nd in OPR 4103- Very consistent in top 5 OPR 4982- Had a bit of a bad event with the State Championship but performed well at Walker Warren getting OPR 1 234- Consistent top OPR 135- Under the Radar team this year which did very well 1747- Suffered due to their State Championship performance 868- Great team this year, had a poor 1st event for their standards 71- Suffered due to a bad State Championship performance 461- Didn't get in the top 15 for one of their events but they were top 10 for state and walker warren, and went to the finals in walker warren. (kind of a writer's pick) |
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Here's more data! (since you can never have too much data)
Instead of just looking at OPR rank, I graphed it according to standard deviations above above the mean. 254 once again dominates, with several records: the only team with an average above 4, 1 of 4 teams to break 4 in a single year, 1 of 2 teams to break 4 in both categories (max/avg OPR), and the only team to break 5 (and even 6 in avg OPR). Each category includes the 10 teams with the highest average (not highest rank as previously used). For the average, I used only CA teams, and the relevant stats (i.e. for max OPR, the average was the average of all max OPRs) I think this is somewhat more representative than just rank (since it adjusts for how far above average you are), but it does make the graphs messier: ![]() The top team per year in CA (standard deviations above average, max OPR, (CA data set only) (all teams)): 2012: 1717 (4.51) (4.77) 2013: 1538 (3.97) (4.71) 2014: 254 (4.01) (3.52) 2015: 254 (5.86) (6.57) 2016: 971 (4.06) (4.15) Top teams in the world (data set now includes all teams): 2012: 2056 (5.20) 2013: 987 (4.93) 2014: 1114 (4.21) 2015: 254 (6.57) 2016: 148 (4.35) Teams for 2008 to 2011 are 1114, 71, 67, and 111, which gives Ontario a third of the top spots in the past 9 years. |
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I personally prefer 2834's database since it's in excel and already nicely formatted: 2016: https://www.chiefdelphi.com/media/papers/3242? 2008-2015: https://www.chiefdelphi.com/media/papers/2174 TBA also has OPRs calculated per event, accessible via their API: http://www.thebluealliance.com/apidocs |
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In my state, CT, the best team is undoubtedly team #195, consistent every year, never is lacking, etc.
Within New England, however, the best team is between 195 and 1519. 1519 is always good, just like 195 and honestly it depends on the year which one of these 2 comes out on top within our region. |
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Inspired by Rachel's plot.
Here is New England district, Max OPR std deviations above mean plot, all 3 years, 20 or so teams ( top OPR teams of 2016). Data is from Team 2834 database. (I think the bible?) Only includes teams that have all 3 years - (sorry Mobius, and other emerging teams). Of course OPR doesn't equate to blue banners.... OPR is OPR. |
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1. 1986
2. 1730 3. 1806 4. 4522 5. 1775 |
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Top 10 for Texas (robot performance over last 5 years)
1. 118 2. 148 3. 624 4. 1477 5. 3310 6. 2468 7. 1296 8. 2848 9. 4587 10. 4063 |
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Seeing as this thread is filled with great data attempting to distill great teams, I'll add my own completely subjective rankings for the North Carolina teams! In no particular order, I hold these 5 teams as some of the mostly consistently strong in the NC District:
1533 - Triple Strange 900 - The Zebracorns 3506 - Yeti 2655 - The Flying Platypi 2059 - The Hitchhikers If I didn't have to limit the list to 5, I might also throw in*: 2642 - Pitt Pirates 4935 - T-Rex 587 - Hedgehogs * (highly technical note): this list omits some talented up and comers who just haven't been around long enough. |
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Who'll take a whack at Michigan? :rolleyes:
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Strictly looking at OPR for 2016, these would be the top 5 teams in Georgia:
2415 1261 1746 4468 2974 |
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I have a sheet I use that looks at top finishing teams in the state, and I use this data as a power ranking for the district competitions. So based on 5 years as requested... so if you didn't exist for 5 years, you are ineligible... 190 teams in 2012 are eligible 411 teams in 2016, means over half the teams that exist in the state, are not eligible in this calc... Really makes you want to spend time and crank out metrics to justify rankings, but hey here you go. :) Based on final FiM ranking data and the last 5 years, here is the top 20 teams in the state... or 1/2 of the state that currently have teams? |
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Good catch, I don't think it changed the ranking, but I did fix and update the graphic. :) |
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#1 - 525
#2-11 - don't know much about ranking, just that 525 is the best |
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Ugh, the mistakes I make by doing this by hand... I think I copied an old graph and somehow swapped 1678 with 1717, losing your 2016 data in the process. Anyway, here's a fixed graph. Hopefully I didn't managed to mess something else up. ![]() |
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Could someone do an in depth list for CT? It's hard to remember how many good teams there are. I know OPR is OPR, but in no way does it do CT or NE in fact any justice.
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#1 - 525 (Swartdogs) with a 53.85 OPR at the Iowa Regional. #2 - 5576 (Team Terminator) with a 48.28 OPR at the Minnesota North Star Regional. #3 - 967 (Iron Lions) with a 37.98 OPR at the Minnesota North Star Regional. #4 - 4646 (Team ASAP) with a 36.57 OPR at the Central Illinois Regional. #5 - 167 (Children of the Corn) with a 36.53 OPR at the Minnesota North Star Regional. Honorable Mention: 3928 (Team Neutrino) with a 34.95 OPR at the Minnesota North Star Regional. Edit: Average OPR during 2016 season: #1 - 525 with an average OPR of 49.71 during the 2016 season. #2 - 5576 with an average OPR of 39.55 during the 2016 season. #3 - 4646 with an average OPR of 34.86 during the 2016 season. #4 - 3928 with an average OPR of 32.30 during the 2016 season. #5 - 167 with an average OPR of 31.32 during the 2016 season. |
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I was going to do a bunch of rankings based on different statistics for Iowa, but Golfer4646 beat me to OPR. :)
Some statistics I used to rank 2016 robot performance: Highest Rank During Season (2016) 1. 525 (2) 2. 4646 (6) 3. 5576 (10) 4. 167 (12) 5. 967 (14) Highest Pick # (2016) 1. 525 (2) 2. 5576 (4) 3. 3928 (8) 4. 4646 (9) 5. 967 (10) Maximum OPR (2016) (I know this has already been posted, but for the sake of having all Iowa rankings in one post, I will repeat it) 1. 525 (53.85) 2. 5576 (48.28) 3. 967 (37.98) 4. 4646 (36.57) 5. 167 (36.53) Maximum CCWM (2016) 1. 525 (33.70) 2. 5576 (21.92) 3. 3928 (12.69) 4. 4646 (10.83) 5. 167 (10.33) I also looked at over the past 5 years how many awards teams had won. Awards (past 5 years) 1. 525 (16) 2/3. 3928/4646 (6) 4. 967 (5) 5/6. 5576/5837 (3) I used TBA and 2834's Scouting database for all stats. Thanks! A large portion of this was all found and copied by hand. If there are any errors in it, feel free to correct me. tldr: 525 is pretty undisputedly the best in Iowa. |
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My view is that eastern-time states don't qualify, letting out Ohio, Michigan, and (mostly) Indiana. North and South Dakota are Great Plains states, like Nebraska and Kansas, along with big portions of Oklahoma and Texas. Where you put Missouri depends on which major city you see it from -- KC or STL. That leaves Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota in the Upper Midwest. I'll go with 525 as one of that region's top teams, maybe the best overall looking at a long time period. |
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https://www.thebluealliance.com/team/2481/2016 Oh. |
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2481 vs. 525 has to go to the |
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2481 has been one of my favorite teams for years. I would find it hard not to rank them #1.
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Here's my take on Colorado:
OPR (2016): 1. 1619 (52.05) 2. 4388 (39.14) 3. 2996 (36.25) 4. 4499 (35.73) 5. 2240 (34.54) Results (2016): 1. 1619 (Arizona North Regional Quarterfinalist, Colorado Regional Winner, Carson Semifinalist) 2. 4499 (Arizona North Regional Quarterfinalist, Colorado Regional Finalist, 15th seed on Galileo) 3. 4550 (Colorado Regional Winner, 45th seed on Newton) 4. 1339 (Colorado Regional Finalist, 30th seed on Galileo) 5. 1410 (Arizona North Regional Semifinalist, Colorado Regional Semifinalist) OPR (2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016): 1. 1619 (1.22, 30.01, 106.63, 88.75, 52.05) 2. 2996 (22.70, 61.51, 50.28, 40.42, 36.25) 3. 1410 (11.73, 50.78, 28.20, 24.84, 28.42) 4. 662 (8.48, 11.91, 42.82, 45.28, 31.97) 5. 4499 (N/A, 21.34, 23.11, 48.16, 35.73) Results (2012-2016): 1. 1619 (3 Quarterfinalists, 2 Semifinalists, 3 Winners, 2 CMP Semifinalists) 2. 2996 (3 Quarterfinalists, 2 Semifinalists, 2 Winners, 1 CMP Semifinalist) 3. 4499 (6 Quarterfinalists, 2 Finalists, 1 CMP Quarterfinalist) 4. 4550 (3 Quarterfinalists, 1 Semifinalists, 1 Winner) 5. 1410 (3 Quarterfinalists, 3 Semifinalists, 2 Finalists) Culture: 1. 2996 (1 Rookie All Star, 2 Engineering Inspiration, 3 Chairman's) 2. 4499 (2 Rookie All Star, 2 Engineering Inspiration, 2 Chairman's) 3. 159 (1 Engineering Inspiration, 4 Chairman's) 4. 1619 (1 Engineering Inspiration, 1 Chairman's) 5. 4944 (2 Rookie All Star) This is my take. I'd love to see another Coloradan's view! |
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I'll do Alaska, too.
OPR 2016: 1. 568 Performance 2016: 1. 568 Overall 2016: 1. 568 OPR Last 5 Years: 1. 568 Performance Last 5 Years: 1. 568 Overall Last 5 Years: 1. 568 Team Culture: 1. 568 |
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