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[FRC Blog] 2017 FIRST Championships Allocations for Districts
Posted on the FRC Blog, 8/31/16: http://www.firstinspires.org/robotic...-for-districts
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So, who wants to do the math to figure out how many estimated waitlist spots each champs gets now?
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That's 201 District spots at HalfchampsN and ~20 Regionals getting 7 each. So that leaves around 59 waitlist spots. HalfchampsS would have 88 District spots and ~29 Regionals? So they'd get 109ish waitlist spots. |
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Ok I like this a lot gets rid of my concern about our waitlist tokens becoming useless. Thanks frank!
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This was a predictable change, but I'm still disappointed.
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Under the old system the North Championship would have ~265 teams from district areas but under this system they'll only have 201. Given that district teams are much more competitive than waitlist teams, this will seriously decrease the quality of championship play. I had assumed that the purpose of waitlist spots was to fill the gaps when regionals didn't send enough teams to fill out the championship, but FIRST doesn't seem to share that view. What is the point of waitlist teams? Why do the extra 64 waitlist teams deserve to go to the North Championship more than the district points teams do? Shouldn't we reward success on and off the field more than a lottery? |
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It may be a good thing text doesn't convey tone. |
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Houston Champs districts get a pretty huge spike in slots! Roughly 40% (give or take) increases for each of PNW, North Carolina, and Peachtree.
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We have been a team since 2009 and have never even come close to qualifying for Champs. Many members despite my best efforts still don't realize how big first really is. The experience of Champs would certainly seriously help our team. The reason half Champs became a thing was to give more teams the Champs experience. Before this change district teams did have an easier time qualifying despite the wildcard change. Now it's pretty balanced. Don't forget waitlist tokens can go to regional and district teams. Now I still support 1 Champs but, if we are going to have 2 let's have other teams like mine and maybe ones even farther away from breaking through get a taste of what's out there. |
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I agree with the point of limiting the number of district teams going to north champs differently then the south champs.
As for waitlists and district teams, why not just leave waitlist for regional teams and give districts the full allotment? As I see it both waitlist and districts were way to help teams that the regional system was leaving behind. |
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Interesting that the districts going to the south post season expo gained 40%, 55% and 36% more teams, whereas the teams going to the north expo gained 1 or 2 spots at maximum.
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I'm pretty surprised about that, since all waitlist teams from district areas would have fewer district points than the points teams. Either regional waitlist teams are doing well enough to pull up the average or district points aren't doing that a good a job of sending the best teams. Quote:
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FIRST is not preventing 2869 from attending the event, but they are going to make the chance of the 27th best team in Chesapeake more difficult than the 41st team in the PNW, even though CHS is 85% the roster count as PNW. I've accepted that someone has poured water all over my cereal, but they didn't have to pee in it too. |
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The decision to calculate the percentage based on teams only in the geographic region of your Champ definitely helps MI logistics-wise.
Without the change, MI would send about 411/3130*804 = 105 teams to NorthCMP, or more teams than at MSC the last couple years. With that change and the 10% one, it's only 79 teams qualifying, so MSC is not irrelevant in qualifying to NorthCMP. |
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And then you can consider which teams would apply for waitlist spots. While there are certainly exceptions, it's going to be the better funded teams, as attending champs is a rather expensive proposition. And it'll probably be the more confident teams, those that are confident they can build a decent robot and do well enough at champs to make a trip worthwhile (even if they are realists and realize the schedule or luck in playoffs can work against them). Now, think about all the regional teams you don't see at champs. Teams that were finalists (although there's less of that now with the wildcards), semifinalists, or quarterfinalists, all of which may be pretty decent - especially when you look at the different relative strengths of regionals. Just take a look at the 2014 Lake Superior regional playoffs for an example - every set except Semifinals 2 went to a third match, with so many close games that any alliance really could have won that event that year. So while any team can get in off the waitlist, there are enough good teams across FIRST, and enough psychology involved in spending that type of money, to suggest that we'll get some better teams than you might expect from it. |
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The district points system is not designed to send the top performing robots to CMP, it is designed to send the teams that earn the most points. Yes robot performance is where the bulk of the points are earned but awards earn points and there are bonuses for rookie and 2nd year teams. At the cutoff point the range of points is often quite small and winning just one award can make a difference of earning a CMP spot or not. |
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Say team A is above the points cutoff and team B is directly below it. If team A receives a waitlist spot, team B qualifies for Champs. While team A technically received a waitlist spot and team B earned a spot on district points, team B only earned their spot because team A received a waitlist spot. In this regard, I think it makes more sense to categorize team B as the waitlist team than team A because team B would not have earned a spot if it weren't for the waitlist. Quote:
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Here is my recreation of how teams qualified. Note that it incorrectly includes DCMP winners as "District Points" spots. Distinguishing waitlist teams from district points teams was tough. If a district got X points spots, then I took the top X teams from that district who did not already qualify. The rest were included as waitlist teams. There was usually a pretty clear cut off point. |
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What is the predicted spots allocated for 2017 based off in the 2016 season? Because you have PNW going from 30 to 41 and then there is Indiana going from 9 to 10. Indiana has an 11% increase where PNW has about a 37% increase.
Are these increases based off of a projection of how many rookie teams will be added to the 2017 season? IN gained 0 teams last year total so is FIRST assuming IN will gain 0 teams again this year? I'm just curious how these were designated. Thanks :D |
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So it's using the exact same numbers as 2016, assuming no increase anywhere. The difference you note is the difference between norths champs and south champs. districts going to south champs are going to get bigger increases than districts going to north champs. |
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Anyway, if you think the CMP has the same purpose as a little league championship, you may want to read up a bit on what FIRST's goals are. However much you might want it to be about earning your way, FIRST doesn't want that. |
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Full Sarcasm Alert!: Can FIRST do us all a favor and send 3/4 of MI to half champs south? 201-60 = 141 and 88+60= 148. That'd make for a much better district distribution and would cause the same percentage increase of HalfChamps spots allocated to each district :D |
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Using 2016 numbers and accounting for 3114 of 3130 teams (there are 16 hiding somewhere): North: 1766 teams South: 1348 teams That's including the US, Canada, Israel, China, Australia, Mexico, Brazil, and a few other smaller countries. The blog post mentions Quote:
I wonder how much FIRST looked at team counts before drawing the lines? Or if it was more based on population? Really populous states like Texas, California, and Florida are all in the south, but they're currently lagging behind many northern and eastern states in teams/person. |
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If FIRST "doesn't want [it to be about earning your way], how come over 75% of teams will earn there way to a CMP in 2017? FIRST said somewhere that they want every FRC team to have the opportunity to attend CMP once every four years. What does that matter if CMP is too expensive for lower resource teams to attend? Will FIRST reduce the registration cost ever? What are the reasons for FRC wait list spots, but no other FIRST or VEX program to my knowledge intentionally preserves this percentage of wait list spots for their culminating events? Things to think about. I think there are plenty of ways to skin a cat, with or without tons of wait list spots at CMP. -Mike |
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Note that these equations have absolutely nothing to do with the number of district teams in each region, but rather the number of total teams in each region. |
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http://frc-districtrankings.usfirst.org/2016/NE/125 http://frc-districtrankings.usfirst.org/2016/FIM/2405 (examples) At the bottom of the page, in the red "corrections" box? |
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Chesapeake 26/132 = 19.7% Indiana = 10/49 = 20.4% MI = 79/411 = 19.2% MAR = 24/121 = 19.8% NC = 14/52 = 26.9% NE = 35/181 = 19.3% PNW = 41/158 = 25.9% PeachTree = 17/65 = 26.2% |
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My point is, dig into why the numbers are the way they are, don't just make assumptions about the source of the difference. When you dig into the true root cause of the difference, then you can start looking at useful suggestions for improvements. |
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Using 2016 numbers, there were 22 Kansas teams and 73 Missouri teams, which are part of the North Champs in 2017, but will be part of the South Champs in 2018. Those 95 teams skew the balance. In 2018 the distribution, using Ernst's numbers would be: North: 1671 South: 1443 I wonder if we can move another logical grouping of 114 teams to balance out the numbers! P.S. This assumes that team growth is uniform throughout all of FIRSTdom, which Michigan has been ruining for a while now. |
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Unfortunately it's not comprehensive. Teams like 834 don't have that mark when they did qualify by the waitlist. |
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I know some teams where every other year they got to champs on waitlist, and last year they even declined the spot because they said it wasn't worth it to waste all that money when they didn't preform well. While everyone does deserve to go not everyone could afford it. There's a team the competes in upstate NY that can barely afford 1 regional and a robot. They decline their championship spot every time, even with a successful season. Maybe with the Detroit championship it could become a little easier for them to attend. But it always comes down to cost and if the sponsors or school district could offer help or not. |
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While I don't always agree with FIRST's methods, I don't think that FarmerJohn relating the CMP to a little league championship was as accurate as it could have been because of FIRST's position on CMP. And I think going after Sperkowski for looking forward to taking advantage of one of FIRST's mechanisms for attending was a little much. FarmerJohn's expectations about what CMP is don't seem to align with the expectations that FIRST is trying to set. If people want FIRST to change what CMP is then that is a different discussion than what I was getting at. A good discussion that I think should continue to happen, but not what I was getting at. |
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Assuming that page correctly shows invitations, here is how I have MAR teams qualifying. These should be the 22 teams that FIRST allocated to MAR. Note that 193 is the last points team in this list and the link shows them as the last team to get an invitation. The teams after 193 that are shown as qualified either have the note saying that they are waitlist teams or have qualified with an award. Code:
225 - DCMP winnerQuote:
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Just curious, how many teams are let in off the waitlist every year?
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I don't have the facts about how often Vex and FTC teams cannot afford the cost of attending their championship events in addition to building the bot, but I would wager it's a lot lower. |
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MORT, 5404, 1923, and 3637 were between 1989 and 834. MORT had a Chairman's win bid to champs. 5404 got in via waitlist. (If I recall correctly.) 1923 qualified via MAR Champs Chairman's Did 3637 get a waitlist spot or something? |
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If I had to guess at their motivation I would say that it is because they want a broad variety of people to attend CMP. FIRST's first Strategic Pillar is: Quote:
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I suppose using the lottery to send perennially bad teams makes some amount of sense. It's odd that FIRST is pushing for areas to go to the district model so much when districts have the exact opposite philosophy on team advancement. There are no waitlist spots at District Championships. Quote:
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Districts reward performance on and off the field; culture awards get points too. I like that culture award winning teams advance because they have shown off the field success. I also have no problem with using waitlist teams to bring an event to capacity when qualified teams can't be found. If the issue is that districts don't reward off the field performance enough, then the solution is to increase those point values or give EI teams qualification to the District Championship. Randomly picking teams weighted by how long ago they went to the Championship does not reward off the field performance. In fact, now a team who may have qualified with points partially earned by a district chairman's award could be denied advancement in order to let in a team that got lucky. |
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That team was 971 in 2006. The senior leader was me. While it's not the only reason 971 is a powerhouse now, it was a big part of that team's transformation. I have, and always will, advocate for the opportunity for "bad"/"undeserving"/"unqualified" teams to attend a Championship, because it can be very inspirational. It's not currently in the district system to have waitlist teams at DCMP, but it could be. The difference is that districts are by definition geographically oriented. Those teams will already have played with most of the teams at their District Championship. It's not the same opportunity to meet and interact with the larger FIRST community. I do not believe that split-champs is the right way to go. I also don't believe that it necessarily helps get more teams "the Championship experience". But I do believe there is value in allowing some number of teams who likely would never qualify for a higher level of competition to go experience an event like that. |
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The point of my last post was to clarify that opposition to this change never came from a viewpoint that on the field success was all that mattered. |
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Coming from a rookie team that attended Champs last year, I feel that it had a huge impact on our students. Just being there and playing matches, even if we didn't do great, really showed everyone what it's like to be in the "big leagues" so to speak. And because of that experience, we're going to work as hard as we possibly can to be back. As I've said in prior posts, I believe students that get to experience events like the Championship and even play at several events each season are more inspired and excited about STEM than students who don't have those opportunities. Thus, at some point you have to decide what FIRST and the Championship is about. For some it might be winning, but for me - it's inspiration. |
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If the goal is truly to ensure as many teams as possible get a Championship trip every four years, I'd like to propose a tweak to the waitlist system:
Continue to calculate waitlist lottery entries the same as currently, except do not consider teams who have attended Champs in the preceding three seasons. This way, a team cannot attend via waitlist twice during the same 4-year student turnover cycle, ensuring teams who have never or have not in a long time competed at Champs are more likely to get a chance. I think this tweak would better align with FIRST's stated goal to better spread out the Championship experience to teams who would not otherwise receive it. |
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There's also some value in extending waitlist spots to teams who will probably eventually qualify - those teams get to start planning sooner, and the spot isn't wasted when a different team gets their waitlist spot later. |
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