Most Competitive Events 2017
 

After 2 rounds of registration, which events seem to be the most stacked for 2017?

My picks are Waterford (27, 33, 67, 217), Las Vegas(118, 148, 842, 1538) and Midwest (16, 111, 1986, 2451)

Re: Most Competitive Events 2017
 

Ah yes, Waterloo, Nevada. I know it well.

Edit: In all seriousness though, the actual Waterloo event has 1114, 2056, 3683, 4039, and probably some others I'm missing, so it's likely to be an extremely good event.

Re: Most Competitive Events 2017
 

Fixed, thanks

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For a split second I was confused when I only saw southern teams attending Waterloo. It made me scratch my head when I didn't see Canadian teams, but nvm it was Las Vegas all along..

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Hub City is looking pretty decent, (at least compared to what I remember of it from previous years). (118, 624, 1477, 2481)



One thing I have learned about FRC is that there is no such thing as an "easy" event. And when you think you have found one, there is always 2 or more teams that will surprise you, and POOF, there goes the hope for an "easy" event!

Re: Most Competitive Events 2017
 

How would you define an "easy" event?

Re: Most Competitive Events 2017
 

IDK about that, I know this may not be considered PC or GP but I feel like if the delta between your team and the next most competitive team at the event is large enough then you can have an easy event. For example I feel that 1114 had an "easy" event at Greater Toronto Central 2015, I don't think anyone can argue that.

Re: Most Competitive Events 2017
 

Here are some estimates I did using historical OPR data:
Observations:

• The ubiquity of district events on this list. Of the unique events listed, there were 11 district events, compared to 5 regionals. This list is 69% district events, which comprise 59% of non-DCMP/CMP events next year.
• District breakdown: 5 FIM, 2 NE, 2 IN, 1 ONT, 1 MAR

One thing that should be kept in mind is that many events have still yet to let in teams from the waitlist. Tech Valley, one of last year's more competitive regionals, is full at 21 teams with a capacity of 36 last year and is ranked 118, 121, and 119 by these metrics. In addition, top teams registering for third plays could shake things up, especially the Top 8 rankings.


OPR is by no means a perfect number, but I believe this lends some insight to this (purely for fun) discussion. For calculations, I used a weighted average of max-OPR z scores from the past three years, with more recent OPRs weighted more heavily.

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Bingo (or should I say Jackpot?). 987 in Las Vegas would be a glaring omission from that event roster. Can't imagine they wouldn't be at their home event.

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Can't leave 2338 out of the discussion on Midwest (2015, 2016 Midwest Chairmans, 2015 Midwest Champs, 2014, 2016 Midwest Finalists, not to mention 2015 World division champs and SF's on Einstein).

Midwest is also only at 44 teams right now, and usually has well over 50 teams every year so there could be even more highly competitive teams to register.

Re: Most Competitive Events 2017
 

2015 finalists.

I'm really looking forward to both IL regionals this year. Tons of talented teams at both events! Midwest has lots of high level visitors this year (1511, 1592, 1986, 2848). 16 returning too!

Re: Most Competitive Events 2017
 

No doubt i'm going to watch 'ONT District - Ryerson University Event 2017'
with: 188, 610, 1114, 1241, 1310, 1325.
With 610, 1241 and 3560 u have the winning alliance of Waterloo 2016.
And what do i have to say about the other teams? :yikes:

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For New England, both Connecticut events look strong (Waterbury and Hartford) with 177, 195, 230 and 558 attending each event.

Re: Most Competitive Events 2017
 

To expand on Michigan, a little. I have a sheet that tracks the district "strengths " based on a "Power Rating" which I have played with the calculation... Currently using the last three years data, using the FiM final ranking as a percentage, and summed. So if you finished 1st in the last 3 years in Michigan, your power ranking would be 3. As a reference point Last year MSC 102 teams had a PR=2.2 average.

In Michigan there are still 33% of the district spots to fill, so this is preliminary data, and numbers will move around as waitlist spots are cleared.

But as currently registered, Waterford is the number 1 competitive district, with and average PR=1.862, followed by St. Joseph PR=1.854

Top Michigan teams that are not currently registered for two events, that can significantly impact this distribution are: 107 (1), 68 (2), 4362(1), 2054(1), 3602(1), 3620(1)

This PR calculation with only looking a 3 years, negatively impacts some historically great teams in Michigan, 469 (which finished 1st in 2012 and 2013), 51, 245, 217, 314, 910 which all are impacted by single poor competition year result.

Last year the PR of Waterford (last years most competitive district) was on par with MSC, it doesn't look as competitive this year, but that could change when all the numbers shake out, but it does not seem to be moving in that direction.

Typically disclaimers, I think the data presented is accurate, but I am always making excel errors, YMMV. :)

Re: Most Competitive Events 2017
 

Has anyone else noticed that some of the most competitive district events have the word "Water" in the event name? FIM Waterford, Ontario Waterloo, NE Waterbury. I think we all know what this means...

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That throughout history humanity has settled near waterways because of the improved food production and transportation capabilities caused by those waterways?

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Utah looks stronger than usual this year. (987, 2122, 1619, 3230, 4334, etc.)

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Also, since almost all teams have registered by now, has anyone figured out if that one team from Alaska that said they were sponsored by a lard company actually exists?

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Without really any viable alternate events for CT teams, this was inevitable. WPI filled up very quickly and it's really oddly timed. RIDE is possible if you skip Hartford, I guess. Otherwise it's the greater Boston area or NH, and those events weren't very conveniently timed either.

Here's hoping these really top-heavy events don't crush the middle tier teams out of a chance at States. I'm sure it'll be fine, but it's certainly intimidating.

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It appears there is no team with the number 6621. 😭

How else can I get my polar bear sized tub of
Lard?

Re: Most Competitive Events 2017
 

Contact Piztons directly.

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I wonder if 118's streak could be in jeopardy this year, especially if 987 joins the party at Las Vegas.

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What streak do they have?

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They have, somewhat quietly, won every regional they've attended from 2013 to the present while attending 3 regionals a year.

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Ironically, the only event with "mountain(s)" in it (not including Auburn Mountainview) is actually on the water. Thompson-Boling Arena, the venue for the Smoky Mountains Regional, is on the Tennessee River.

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Steam game!?

In all reality, I'm very excited to play at Waterbury and Hartford. Sounds like a super competitive bunch and it's always fun to learn from them and play with them.

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Am I the only one who judges the "difficulty" of an event by how many teams from IRI are playing there? I realize that not every high caliber team competes at IRI but isn't it a fairly good measurement?

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It works with some events, and doesn't with others. For example, my team (1619) is the only team to have gone to IRI last year out of the Utah lineup. However, there are a number of excellent teams like 987, 2122, and 4334 that certainly would have made it in but didn't apply for the event.

Other events like that include Las Vegas (148, 842, and 1538 didn't go to IRI) and even Silicon Valley (254, 971, 2468 all didn't go to IRI). Sometimes it works as an indicator and sometimes it doesn't.

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Going by just IRI probably isn't going to be very accurate since quite a fair bit of good teams don't attend. For us, if a team won a regional as a captain or first pick, they are on the "watch out" list. We don't know how they will necessarily perform but teams on the "watch out" list are more likely to be a very capable robot. Generally, any team that can score well enough to win an event has a shot of defeating any team in my opinion(there are exceptions).

That being said, competitiveness doesn't necessarily mean "hardest" or "easiest" depending on who you are asking. If I am part of a team that generally performs really well, a high number of teams on the "watch out" list means a very tough event.

Now, if I was part of a newer team that maybe isn't the top scorer but is fairly consistent, I would say an event with a lot of top tier teams is easier than others. Why? Well if an event only has one or two really top tier teams, odds are if my average team is not going to win the event unless we get to be the 24th pick and be with the top teams. In an event where multiple alliances have a solid shot at winning, the odds for an average team to win go up since your fate is less likely to be sealed in alliance selection.

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I think the FIM Southfield event will defiantly have team 33,67,548 as alliance partners.

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I can't imagine any of these teams being around for the last pick... But a #1 alliance consisting of 2 out of the 3 seems very likely.

In fact, 33 has won their week 1 on the #1 alliance 6 years in a row now if I'm not mistaken.

Re: Most Competitive Events 2017
 

I find the most competitive events aren't ones with the top tier of FRC in attendance.

For me you take a few perennial solid teams, mix in some teams playing to their strengths, and add in some final day breakouts and the eliminations are up for grabs by any alliance.

That's why I'd say opening events are the most competitive when the powerhouses aren't around. You aren't entirely sure how the game will be played out on the field come Saturday or Sunday so the options for a winning strategy aren't as defined seeing as you are playing the game first. Everyone is still working out some early season bugs so there are some hit or miss matches. It creates this suspense of who will hit their marks or who can try to remain consistent to keep their scores up?

Watching some of the Granite State District elimination matches over the years have been exciting for me. Its a taste to see how the game will play out and the crowd does get excited over the first big scores of the year even if it is just a simple Capture, tall capped stack, or three assist cycle.

When you look back it seems "weak" but in the moment it is extremely exciting and many alliances have pulled of a few upsets in the bracket.

Re: Most Competitive Events 2017
 

I would say most competitive would have to be the most fairly balanced regional. I've attended many different regionals where there's a couple good robots that can dominate. Last year NYC regional for example had a fair number of teams competing for their first time who weren't confident in their bots, don't have huge test facilities and those things.
There were a few teams who clearly at the event it's scary if they got together, that's one reason we tried to build our alliance where one of the few scary alliances we might face could be shut down.

I think the finger lakes regional is a very competitive one. The last two years I went to it, it's never given who might win. 5254 had an amazing bot both years, and went to the finals but got upset.
When we were choosing an alliance in 2015 it was hard to figure who is the best choice for us, because they're were many great choices. Everyone their picked first round or second is a great partner if you needed their skills.

Finger lakes is so competitive because the qualifies always has great match ups where any match can go either way, and it's always so close. So in terms of most competitive regional I might lean towards it because everyone is so balanced in the sense of how good their robots can be.

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Yeah, I think that just looking at the top tier is too limited of a view. If an event with 35 teams has the 2 best robots in the world, but then a huge drop off and zero depth, you'll end up with a couple amazing matches, but also tons of boring ones and predictable elims alliances and results.

It's no fun to watch an event get dominated by a couple teams (unless you're on them). I would much rather pay attention to one with a deep field of solid teams. But hey, personal preference.

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So I personally can't say I know which will events will be especially competitive, but I can say that GKC will not be, If I had to put money on it , Titanium (1986) would have a 75-95% chance of winning with Driven (1730) or Broncobots (1987)(45% Driven, 40% BroncoBots, 15% other) being in the alliance OR getting second place alliance captain. Not sure if I really added anything to the conversation, but I thought I'd throw my two cents in on the regional I know the best.

Also the team I'm on (1764) will get somewhere between 16th and 30th seed if I had to guess.

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I'm sure GKC will be quite competitive, and 1986 is by no means guaranteed to win it. 1730, 1775, 1806, 1986, 1987, and 4522 are all perennial contenders, plus this year 624 will be in attendance. The upper-mid level teams are no joke either - 935, 1108, 1723, 1785, 1825, 2410, and 3528, just off the top of my head - it wouldn't surprise me a bit if one of those won as a captain / first pick.

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I totally second this. Also eliminations with lots of upsets (e.g. 7 beats 2, 6 beats 3, etc.) is fun to watch... reminds me of Hartford this year.

Re: Most Competitive Events 2017
 

Warren... 2468 Team Appreciate _was_ at 2016 IRI.

My former team, 3481, and 2468 shared a trailer at IRI.

--Michael Blake

Re: Most Competitive Events 2017
 

Both Events in Minneapolis this year certainly have decent potential, at least based on MN potential, North Star has 1806, 2175, 2169, and 3130 to name a few. While 10K lakes has 5172, 2052, 2502 and others. While they are by no means scary competitive like some others in this thread, in Minnesota, they will be very tough events for all teams involved.

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If 5172 is as good as they were last year, they will be about as scary competitive as you can get.

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Going by this logic I would say that the Wisconsin regional is pretty "competitive". Especially considering the 1st seed alliance hasn't won since 2011.

Re: Most Competitive Events 2017
 

The Wisconsin Regional is by no means stacked, but I think it's pretty fair to say it'll be competitive. A lot of different teams could win this year. Especially without several teams who have attended in the past, I think there will be a lower ceiling than some of the "premier" events that will get a lot of hype over a few standout teams, but a much more even top/mid-tier of teams. Wisconsin has a lot of experienced teams who will field at least decent, and often pretty good, robots. Teams like 537, 706, 1306, 1675, 1714, 1732, 2062, 2194, 2202, 4786, and several others, all have the potential to field a robot that could captain an alliance, win a Regional, and play in CMP elims.

This thread is called the "Most Competitive Events", but the OP asks for the "most stacked" ones. I think those are different. Wisconsin won't have the storied, top-tier teams being brought up in this thread, but it will be a good competition that a lot of different teams could win.

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The WPI district in NE is also quite competitive in the sense that any alliance could win. Last year it was #4 and #6 who played in finals. (Although this year I'd have to put my money on 1519)

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I forgot about that. Thanks, and sorry for the misinformation!

Re: Most Competitive Events 2017
 

Great to see my FIM St. Joseph District on this list!

However, since all of the FIM District events* have several unfilled slots now (i.e, many teams are waiting to see which event they will get), there is a strong likelihood that the competitiveness of any given event will change when the rosters are filled. Stay tuned.

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*This also applies to many events in other Districts, and many Regionals.