2017 Chairman's Hall of Fame Predictions
 

Hey guys!

It is early, but teams stay great YEAR ROUND and there are a lot of teams people are rooting for this year. Who do you think really deserves the title this year? Who do you think might make it onto the great 2017 Hall of Fame?

Post your predictions here!

Re: 2017 Chairman's Hall of Fame Predictions
 

A little early for this :rolleyes: but 2468.

1868?

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1511

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503

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2486 for Houston, and 2056 or 503 for St. Louis.

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3132 for Houston

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Second vote for 1511.
I'll throw in 3132 as well. (edit: I guess that's a second also. Thanks Schreiber.)

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If any team from Florida can pull it off it is 1902, but I feel either 11 or 503 will get it with 3132 as the dark horse candidate as they are a very large reason FIRST exists in Australia

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As a Canadian, I'm a little biased. I would love to see 1241 in the HoF. They're a truly amazing and inspiring team.

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1676 was quite incredible at their advocacy conference last week. They have a lot of local outreach and have done a lot of Dean's homework in NJ. I think they have MAR (If they even go because they pre-qualified for champs) almost in the bag and have a shot at champs.

Re: 2017 Chairman's Hall of Fame Predictions
 

1311

Re: 2017 Chairman's Hall of Fame Predictions
 

Just a reminder, there will be two Championship Chairman's Award winners this year. One from the Houston Championship and from the St. Louis Championship. So please calibrate your predictions accordingly.

Re: 2017 Chairman's Hall of Fame Predictions
 

1816

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3132 for South Champs

North I'd have to bet 503

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503 in St. Louis, 3132 in Houston

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There are a ridiculous amount of worthy teams. For Houston, I could see 3132, 1540, 2486, and so many others. I'm not as well informed about Chairman's on the other side of the country, so I won't speak to it.

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For the Saint Louis side I would bet a MN team wins it...

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340

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I'd sure appreciate if 2468 were to win

:^)

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It would be pretty cool if in addition to their predictions, posters offered a bit of insight into why they think the predicted teams should win. I'd be interested in hearing more about the unique and defining parts of these culture changing programs. With the immense growth of FRC over the years, I think many people are completely unaware of the amazing impact that these many of these Regional Chairman's Award winners have made.

Re: 2017 Chairman's Hall of Fame Predictions
 

2486 for Houston. 503 for St. louis

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I'll take a whack at it for 3132 - I'm not going to look at North Champs yet maybe I'll get to it later.


To me 3132 is high on that list because of their strong EI presence at CMP level over the last few years. Coupled with the explosive growth of Australian events/teams and what appears to be less hands on involvement from both mainland teams or HQ in creating that growth.

They are having a large impact in their community if you define community as continent/country. I am less familiar with their local impact though, typically, local impact comes before regional impact.

Re: 2017 Chairman's Hall of Fame Predictions
 

I'll echo what others from Minnesota have said... 1816 The Green Machine is very deserving of this award. They are the reason that Minnesota has more than 200 FRC teams. They continue to be a driving force for the growth and development of Minnesota FIRST Robotics. Mark Lawrence (one of 1816's main Mentors) won the WFFA in 2015, and the work that he's done with 1816 is even more evidence of their impact on FIRST Robotics.

2017 Chairman's Hall of Fame Predictions
 

Hey guys!

It is early, but teams stay great YEAR ROUND and there are a lot of teams people are rooting for this year. Who do you think really deserves the title this year? Who do you think might make it onto the great 2017 Hall of Fame?

Post your predictions here!

Edit:: As Karthik mentions below, there will be 2 winners for HOF this year due to FIRST having 2 champs this year (one in St. Louis, Missouri and one in Houston, Texas). Along with the team number, please write why you think that team deserves a spot in HOF (what makes them different, how are they so special?)

Re: 2017 Chairman's Hall of Fame Predictions
 

525 has a pretty good shot at the St. Louis Championship. They've done a huge amount of work to help teams in Iowa, Minnesota, and China. They provide key volunteers in both Iowa and Minnesota. They do their best to make sure all teams are running smoothly during the competitions. 525 has also helped ensure rookie team stability by having Iowa's state government provide funding to all new teams in the state for 2017. They've also worked closely with 987 in the past few years to promote growth and stability in China. FIRST would not have as much of a presence in these 3 regions if it wasn't for the impact of 525.

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I think 604 has a shot at the Houston champs. I can't confidently speak for the St. Louis, but for south, 604 are a team that have a great chance of winning.

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230 or 558 for the North.
Both have amazing programs. and I'm a bit CT biased...

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With 2 championships this year, its great that we can award more than 1 team this year. Every year, there is a growing list of teams that are deserving.
I'm not a judge in any capacity, but I believe that there are many teams who are very close and that it will come down to the student interviews AND video presented this year.
Top two teams: 3132 and 2468. I'm hoping that 1 of them decides to elect to attend St. Louis instead. Then I would predict both of them winning in 2017.
3132's outreach is simply amazing. I'd argue that no one in the history of FIRST has accomplished the extent of what they have done.
2468 is one of the most well balanced teams in FIRST that isnt in the HOF. Their successes both on and off the field are equally inspiring.
There are just too many great teams in the North (U.S. and Canada) that it would be too hard to predict for St. Louis.

Re: 2017 Chairman's Hall of Fame Predictions
 

503 for St Louis for sure. They are absolutely fantastic and have been going year after year as chairman's. Think of all the teams they have inspired!

Without 503, the Flying Toasters wouldn't be here today.

Re: 2017 Chairman's Hall of Fame Predictions
 

For North Champs, I see 2056 or 503 as very strong contenders. 2056 is similar to 987 in the fact that they are well rounded-- an inspirational robot and dedicated outreach. 503 has been a steady representation, winning a Chairman's Award at Michigan State Champs 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, and 2010. That is simply amazing. Their record even goes farther to that. However, that is not to say a strong record like theirs is a deciding factor of who will become HoF, but I think it says a lot about 503.

For South Champs, 2486 has inspired other submissions to be strong contenders. Fun fact, 3309 based their executive question off of a format that 2486 has created, and then won in LA for the first time. That isn't to say that South Champs is necessarily decided however. 1868 has strong outreach, 207 has earned Engineering Inspiration consistently, and may begin to have the same effect for Chairman's, 604 has been a Chairman's team in NorCal consistently. 1540 has had a strong streak as well by earning a CA at the 2016, 2015, and 2014 PNW Champs.

Personally, I do not have any guesses. I'm just observing who has consistently earned a Chairman's Award and relaying that information. Over time, it can become harder for a team to have "streaks" because it can become increasingly difficult for said team to improve and represent themselves. I've heard it said that the first CA award is easier than the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, etc. So, for the teams that have these said "streaks" continuing to be role models in this fashion is very much in line with what it means to be HoF.

However! Winning a CA in your area can be completely different than winning it at a World or (North and South Champs). Maybe these teams will have different outreach strategies this year to push themselves over the edge to become a HoF. We'll see. There is some time. :)

Re: 2017 Chairman's Hall of Fame Predictions
 

To represent the Canadian teams it is Definitely 1241, 2056 has done quite a bit and is deserving of the many regional chairman's awards they have won, but if you look at the scale of the what 1241 does in their region and across the province they are by far and away the strongest Canadian candidate for World Chairman's in St.Louis.

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Another vote for 503 for North Champs - I believe I'm right in saying they've won the Michigan District Chairman's award every single year that it has been a thing.

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At this rate, I'd be pretty shocked if 2614 didn't win Chairman's in St. Louis. They are the reason FIRST is even in West Virginia. They have provided $34,000 for FLL, FTC & FRC in WV, created & mentored 100+ FIRST teams (I think, can't quite remember), ran the first FRC event in the state and are bringing FIRST to India and Zimbabwe.

That's only what they could fit into their Chairman's video from last year/some info from the website.

Re: 2017 Chairman's Hall of Fame Predictions
 

North
503 - Frog Force - 10 chairman's, 25 total BBs, huge impact in Michigan and recognition with Governor Snyder.
1511 - Rolling Thunder - 7 chairman's, 13 total BBs, hosts of Rah Cha Cha Ruckus, MEGA Drive.

South
1311 - Kell Robotics - 8 chairman's, 11 total BBs, public policy advocacy, impressive outreach event list.
604 - Quixilver - 9 chairman's, 15 total BBs, large impact from demonstrations
1540 - Flaming Chickens - 7 chairman's, 15 total BBs, BunnyBots

Re: 2017 Chairman's Hall of Fame Predictions
 

I think that Team 337 would take some issue with that since they existed for 8 years prior to 2614, not saying that 2614 isn't amazing but saying they are the reason FIRST is in their state is a little much


I feel like the issue that will keep them out isn't something they really have control over, and it is that one of the questions that we were asked is how many FRC teams have we helped start in our state, logically the only answer that 2614 can say is 1, 3492; since they are the only team in the state younger then them. It sucks but until FRC sees a lot of growth in their state as a result of that, I feel that some of the teams going to the same champs as them (11, 503, 1241, 1511, 2056) have a leg up.

Re: 2017 Chairman's Hall of Fame Predictions
 

For South Champs, I'm going to borrow some words I said about potential winners for this year's Championship Chairman's Award:

I would definitely say that those two are the leading contenders in my mind for the South Championship Chairman's Award. I'd expect each of them to rise even further this season, and have been combing social media for more info on what they've been up to. They've both continued to impress, and I would bet on one of them winning the big one in 2017.

North Championship is a bit hairier.

I have a hard time putting any team head and shoulders above the rest compared to South Champs-- there are a lot of very good Chairman's teams (1511, 503, 1885, 525) that I could certainly see pulling out the win, but I can't honestly say I would bet on one or two over the others. I need to get a better handle on what each team has been up to in the offseason in order to have an opinion I would consider well-supported here.

Re: 2017 Chairman's Hall of Fame Predictions
 

FRC 321, The Robolancers. Not only do they have a world class program, they do so in a school district that is chronically underfunded and short on faculty and resources. Where the Philadelphia public schooling system lacks the resources to step up, the Robolancers have become a beacon. And they have a track record of successfully demonstrating that impact, with back-to-back MAR Championship Chairman's Awards. For reference, the two other MAR teams mentioned in this thread have yet to win a single MARCMP Chairman's Award. I have little doubt that 321 will be MAR's 4th Hall of Fame team.

Re: 2017 Chairman's Hall of Fame Predictions
 

Glad to see 321 get mentioned, really an awesome program. I think from MAR them, 1676, 1218, and 1923 are certainly contenders.

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1519 for North Half Champs.

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836 - The RoboBees, amazing team and outreach, and always in contention for Chairman's!!

And of course 1629!

Re: 2017 Chairman's Hall of Fame Predictions
 

So I have this script I've been using for the past year now that calculates CPR (Chairman's Power Rating) values for teams at varying events. It's been pretty accurate for regionals (multiple 2016 regionals had 100% prediction accuracy), so I'll post what it's predictions are for North and South Champs. For Champs, it generates a list of a couple "possible candidates" and then vaguely ranks them. All CCA winners from the past 10 years (that's as far as I've checked presently) have been on the possible candidate list my script generates. Note that rankings go off of the team's award history and can't take into account the "quality" of the team's outreaches and Chairman's submissions, and the teams processed by the script were all of the 2016 Chairman's winners that attended Champs.

North (St. Louis):

South (Houston):

Re: 2017 Chairman's Hall of Fame Predictions
 

Interesting numbers, thank you for sharing! It's interesting to compare and contrast this list with the more qualitative evaluations shared on this thread. I'm a bit of a stat geek and have wondered about quantifying Chairman's chances for a while now (just for fun, of course), so I have a few questions:

1. How is CPR calculated? Is it based exclusively on Chairman's or are other awards and factors considered?
2. Exactly how accurate is it in predicting Regional/District/DCMP Chairman's Awards?
3. How does it do with predicting historic Championship Chairman's Award winners?
4. How much of an improvement is CPR over more naive metrics, such as total previous Chairman's Awards?
5. How well does it anticipate "outsiders" who have never won Chairman's receiving the award at the Regional/District level?

I'd love to tinker with your algorithm/code if you'd be willing to share.

Re: 2017 Chairman's Hall of Fame Predictions
 

1. To quickly summarize, CPR is calculated based off of Chairman's and Engineering Inspiration wins in the past four years (inclusive of the current one). Chairmans and E.I. both have base point values (currently 1 and .33) that are reduced then added to a team's CPR based off of when that award was won (i.e. winning Chairman's in 2016 is 1 point, winning Chairman's in 2015 is 0.75 points, 2014 is .5, ect...). There's also a point bonus for winning Chairman's at an event with another "high" CPR team present. I've experimented with also awarding points for streaks (winning multiple Chairman's and/or E.I.'s in a row), but I've found it tends to cause fluctuations in accuracy. I'm always tweaking the point values for everything and attempting to add new ways of increasing accuracy, but this is currently the most accurate combination of factors I've gotten.

2. For regionals and district championships, the script is fairly accurate at guessing the winners/likely winners. It guessed the correct Chairman's and E.I. winners (1st on the rankings being the Chairman's winner, 2nd often being E.I.) for numerous events and when it was wrong, was within a rank or two of being 100% correct (i.e. rank 3 winning Chairman's). It tends to be more inaccurate at guessing district events due to the larger amount of "upsets" and sometimes lack of any teams with a Chairman's background. As a typical rule, the more Chairman's history that exists for the teams at an event, the more accurate the predictions will be.

3. Champs predictions are more difficult because at champs, the winner is chosen based off of the quality of their submissions and outreach, which my script doesn't (and can't) consider when computing CPR. However, the script is very good at supplying a small list ranging 10-20 teams that "might" win the award. For at least the past 10 years, the HoF winner has been on the list the script provide, and is usually in the top 10 at the very least. For example, 987 was 8th for 2016's predictions, 597 was 10th for 2015's, 27 was 4th for 2014's, and 1538 was 3rd for 2013's.

4. I would say CPR is quite a bit better than just counting Chairman's awards. The script actually started off initially as a way to quickly display how many Chairman's awards the teams at an event had won, and the "predictions" it helped generate then were a lot more inaccurate then what CPR gives now.

5. This is probably the biggest weakness of the current script. All of it's stats are in some way based off of the team's Chairman's and E.I. history, so it never expects a team with a very weak (or non-existent) Chairman's record to win.

I'll be making the code public soon. I'm actually in the process of re-writing most of it to be user-friendly and readable by another developer. If you have any more questions about it (or want to see predictions for certain event(s) in the past or future) just let me know :) I may start posting CPR predictions for 2017 regionals once they start getting closer, though I've already been running some internally.

Re: 2017 Chairman's Hall of Fame Predictions
 

Some great summary reads today!
How could I forget about 1311, 604, 1540, and 2486? So many great teams in the running for both championships..

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I know you may not have meant to, but this implies that Chairman's at other events is not chosen based on the quality of their submission.
I know at regionals and districts the judges may know the teams more personally, but I feel like the award is still given based upon the submission and outreach quality, right?

Re: 2017 Chairman's Hall of Fame Predictions
 

I was a little confused by this statement, too. The Chairman's Award is based on the submission at all levels. While it is easy to assume that a team with a streak or a lot of relevant wins would be the "best", Judges are trained to do their best to objectively decide who will earn each award based on their submissions.

Re: 2017 Chairman's Hall of Fame Predictions
 

You guys are taking part of fast response to questions about my script waaay out of it's context and intended meaning. I was referring to how there's usually a gap in the teams at regionals and that makes it easier to predict wins for the script. At champs the teams, statistically, are tied and the script doesn't know who to predict, since the deciding factor (submission quality) isn't considered by the script. I was in no way implying regional Chairman's (or any Chairman's for that matter) wasn't quality or submission based. Hate to cause confusion, would never disrespect the award or the people judging it :)

Re: 2017 Chairman's Hall of Fame Predictions
 

For north champs I have to think 503 is close to a lock...they're way overdue.

South champs will be a bit more competitive, in my mind. I'm biased towards 1540, of course, and between 1311 (under the radar but an amazing program), 2486 (running FIRST in Arizona, basically), and 3132 (might be a bit young still, but who else can say they started FIRST on a continent?), Houston should be really competitive.

Re: 2017 Chairman's Hall of Fame Predictions
 

I would have to agree with Jacobs predictions. Those four team are all very deserving of the award and more than qualified to win it IMO. I would personally love to see 1540 win it since I have seen the work that they do first hand here in Oregon. Alternatively I think that 1311 has a great shot too, having talked with them before their program and commitment to changing culture for the better is unprecedented.

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You guys and 836 are definitely strong contenders for CHS DCMPs, but I don't know about worlds. I mean, what teams have won chairmans at worlds following not winning it at either their DCMP or a regional the prior year? (as in got to present chairmans at worlds the prior year)

I am 90% sure the first CHS team to win chairmans at champs will be 1885. If that is meant to happen this year, I don't know, but I don't think anyone other than 1885 is basically a lock to win Chairmans at DCMPs, and therefore the only extremely strong contender for worlds. Also 1885 is fourth for CPR at north champs.

Re: 2017 Chairman's Hall of Fame Predictions
 

In case you didn't know, 1629 won Engineering Inspiration at Worlds in 2011 and 2012. And that was before it was split up into divisions. They definitely have the program to make it happen.

Chesapeake is a pretty strong region for that award. I agree with you: my money would also be on 1885. But don't sleep on GaCo, 836, and the lovable cheeseheads (1086). 384 also has a propensity for winning the award in the region. They could surprise.

Re: 2017 Chairman's Hall of Fame Predictions
 

I was aware they won it at worlds, but didn't know that was before they split it up into divisions. Impressive. I did not mean to sound like I was talking bad about 836 or 1629, they are actually two of my personal favorite teams in CHS.

2537 started one, almost two FRC teams in 2016. We wouldn't have more than an outside chance of beating either of them in a hypothetical chairman's head to head.

I also am aware of all of the extremely impressive things 1086 and 384 did to earn a spot over the likes of 836 and 1629 and other impressive awards teams.

But I still take 1885 on the (half) world stage any day of the week.

Re: 2017 Chairman's Hall of Fame Predictions
 

In my experience as a submitter, it isn't. There has been feedback given that implied that "you guys have won enough" which is explicitly NOT in the criteria.

Re: 2017 Chairman's Hall of Fame Predictions
 

Having won a few times and submitted a couple more, I have had a few similar experiences. That's one of the reasons I was asking.

But how Chairman's is judged and decided is a completely different discussion.