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-   -   Biggest upsets of 2016 (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showthread.php?t=152571)

weaversam8 14-12-2016 11:25
Re: Biggest upsets of 2016
 
Hey Caleb!

If you're working with prediction models for FRC, I'd suggest you checkout what my team, The Wired Wizards, did with ORB.

The link to the forum post is here: https://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/s...d.php?t=147817

We worked with match prediction specific to Stronghold, doing analysis based on teams affinity with different defenses... there's more information in the post...

Good luck!

Caleb Sykes 14-12-2016 13:00
Re: Biggest upsets of 2016
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by weaversam8 (Post 1621236)
Hey Caleb!

If you're working with prediction models for FRC, I'd suggest you checkout what my team, The Wired Wizards, did with ORB.

The link to the forum post is here: https://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/s...d.php?t=147817

We worked with match prediction specific to Stronghold, doing analysis based on teams affinity with different defenses... there's more information in the post...

Good luck!
Did you ever see how accurate your predictions were? After training with data from 2011-2014, my current Elo model gets a Brier score of 0.1792 for predicting the winners of the 2016 Championship qual and playoff matches. I'm planning to try to predict matches with OPR, CCWM, and win contribution in the future and compare results.

Caleb Sykes 14-12-2016 13:02
Re: Biggest upsets of 2016
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Caleb Sykes (Post 1621253)
Did you ever see how accurate your predictions were? After training with data from 2011-2014, my current Elo model gets a Brier score of 0.1792 for predicting the winners of the 2016 Championship qual and playoff matches. I'm planning to try to predict matches with OPR, CCWM, and win contribution in the future and compare results.
Alternatively, it predicted 72.3% of the winning alliances correctly.

weaversam8 14-12-2016 13:46
Re: Biggest upsets of 2016
 
The project was exploratory, we were learning, but off the top of my head I think it was between 60 and 70 percent accurate.

Chris is me 14-12-2016 16:30
Re: Biggest upsets of 2016
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Caleb Sykes (Post 1621253)
Did you ever see how accurate your predictions were? After training with data from 2011-2014, my current Elo model gets a Brier score of 0.1792 for predicting the winners of the 2016 Championship qual and playoff matches. I'm planning to try to predict matches with OPR, CCWM, and win contribution in the future and compare results.
If you're going to compare to all of the various methods, would be cool to also compare to average qual score; anything less predictive than that is worthless basically.

MattV781 14-12-2016 16:35
Re: Biggest upsets of 2016
 
Waterloo 2016 Finals takes the cake for me. 1241 and 610 played incredibly well.

Caleb Sykes 14-12-2016 17:05
Re: Biggest upsets of 2016
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris is me (Post 1621288)
If you're going to compare to all of the various methods, would be cool to also compare to average qual score; anything less predictive than that is worthless basically.
Do you mean each team's average qual score for the matches they have already played? Average qual score for the event would just predict a tie every match.

Andrew Schreiber 14-12-2016 18:49
Re: Biggest upsets of 2016
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris is me (Post 1621288)
If you're going to compare to all of the various methods, would be cool to also compare to average qual score; anything less predictive than that is worthless basically.
Wanna be lazier, try just predicting w/l based off existing win ratio for alliance at the event. I have a hunch it's as good as anything else.

Chris is me 15-12-2016 10:55
Re: Biggest upsets of 2016
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Caleb Sykes (Post 1621303)
Do you mean each team's average qual score for the matches they have already played? Average qual score for the event would just predict a tie every match.
Yes, the average qual score of the team's previous matches; just like OPR uses the data from the team's previous qual matches, etc. OPR was always meant to be an improvement over average score. You can also do average winning margin as an alternate metric. OPR is supposed to be better than average score and CCWM is supposed to be better than average winning margin.

TheBoulderite 15-12-2016 12:45
Re: Biggest upsets of 2016
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheBoulderite (Post 1619796)
Our team led the only upset in the Quarterfinals of the Carson Division this year. With the help of 525, 4028, and 3352, we just barely edged out 2590, 225, 2067, and 11. Here's the first and here's the second.
I should have read the rules of the thread first. Sorry for posting one about my own team.

carpedav000 15-12-2016 14:34
Re: Biggest upsets of 2016
 
INDCMP elims had some pretty notable upsets (the 1501-868 upset and the 71-234-1741 alliance getting knocked out in quarterfinals)

TheBoulderite 15-12-2016 18:33
Re: Biggest upsets of 2016
 
Not necessarily an upset, but I found it really cool that the same alliance won 2 events together! (1024, 1747, 45)

Skyehawk 31-12-2016 22:15
Re: Biggest upsets of 2016
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by AlexanderLuke (Post 1619787)
Not a match, but the entire 2016 Curie Division could be considered an upset. In every matchup on the bracket, the underdog came out on top. The eighth seed won the division. You can see the bracket at The Blue Alliance.
and the finals were decided by three points, it was a curse to have red bumpers...


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