Biggest upsets of 2016
 

What were the biggest match upsets of 2016, qualification or playoff? Post your thoughts here.

Please do not post about a match your team won in unless that match has already been mentioned by someone else. If it really was a big upset, someone else will probably post about it.

I have been developing an Elo model for FRC (more to come soon), and I have attached the matches this model thought were the biggest upsets.

Re: Biggest upsets of 2016
 

The discussion starts and ends with this match.

Re: Biggest upsets of 2016
 

Not a match, but the entire 2016 Curie Division could be considered an upset. In every matchup on the bracket, the underdog came out on top. The eighth seed won the division. You can see the bracket at The Blue Alliance.

Re: Biggest upsets of 2016
 

The FLR alliance of 20, 639 and 1405 taking home the win. Particularly their semifinal set with 5254, 2791 and 2383.

Re: Biggest upsets of 2016
 

The number 1 Alliance losing to the number 7 alliance on Newton.

Re: Biggest upsets of 2016
 

You are correct, sir. What a time for the Killer Bees' climber to jam!

Re: Biggest upsets of 2016
 

Thanks for the shoutout! Also, we were part of the Curie upsets, but our win was not a significant upset itself.

Re: Biggest upsets of 2016
 

While 1241 and 610 winning together normally wouldn't qualify as an upset, the match that broke the 2056 streak counts in my book.

Re: Biggest upsets of 2016
 

Our team led the only upset in the Quarterfinals of the Carson Division this year. With the help of 525, 4028, and 3352, we just barely edged out 2590, 225, 2067, and 11. Here's the first and here's the second.

Re: Biggest upsets of 2016
 

Ahh yes, the highlight of my season

Re: Biggest upsets of 2016
 

This has to be one of the biggest upset chain of the 2016 season in Newton. The 7th seed took down the 2nd seed in quarterfinals (1519, 118, 3309, 1676), took down the 3rd seed in semi-finals (67, 5172, 1477, 3481), and the 1st seed. (1241, 254, 1731 and 708)

While the 7th seed was certainly an offensive juggernaut of an alliance, during champs I wasn't predicting them to win the Newton division after alliance selection because so many other alliances look stacked as well.

Carson had it's upsets as well. As Boulderite mentioned, 7th seed took down the 2nd seed. 4th seed also took down the 1st seed and the 3rd seed to win the division.

Re: Biggest upsets of 2016
 

Not sure I wanted to be reminded of Curie division eliminations from this year...

Re: Biggest upsets of 2016
 

Similarly, the 2016 Mt. Olive MAR District had an almost perfect reverse bracket. Alliances 1, 2, 3, and 4 were knocked out in the Quarterfinals, Alliances 6 and 8 out in the Semis, and Alliance 5 losing to Alliance 7 in the Finals.

Re: Biggest upsets of 2016
 

Same here :P

Re: Biggest upsets of 2016
 

+1. 20 truly constructed the best alliance possible and all three teams executed on it quite impressively. From the time alliance selection finished, I knew whoever won the first semifinal series would win the event.

Let's not forget Bridgewater-Raritan, where Mount Olive winners 1676 and 5624 reunited to take home a banner from the #7 spot (again), upsetting the #1 alliance in finals. 1676 played some quality defense and 5624 could take down the tower singlehandedly (even at Champs); they were quite the pairing. I get a kick out of the fact that 1257 brought them together at Mount Olive and then lost to them at Bridgewater.

Re: Biggest upsets of 2016
 

Is no one going to mention Einstein Finals 3? 120-2481-330 vs. 1690-2056-1405, finals match 3 score was 225-225 and the champion title was awarded to teams 120-2481-330 for playing the cleaner match. (Both amazing alliances, by the way, but the crowd was in an uproar!)

Re: Biggest upsets of 2016
 

"Upset" generally implies the underrated alliance won. Both alliances here were excellent, and it's hard to say one was heavily favored over the other to win the series.

Re: Biggest upsets of 2016
 

Here are the biggest playoff upsets for individual matches using my Elo model.

Re: Biggest upsets of 2016
 

Ah well then I agree 100% with Curie playoffs

I was interpreting the term upset as "people were upset about it", carry on :cool:

Re: Biggest upsets of 2016
 

Hahahaha
I wouldn't dare to open that can of worms.

Re: Biggest upsets of 2016
 

Wow, I didn't expect that semi-final match from the 2016 10,000 lakes regional to be on there. I'm surprised the win likelihood was only 2.6% for blue alliance.

Re: Biggest upsets of 2016
 

That is surprising to me as well. I thought our alliances were quite even with your alliance having a slight advantage. It would have been fun to see if we could have won if we didn't have technical problems.

Re: Biggest upsets of 2016
 

SF 1-1 had the blue alliance with a 11.3% chance to win, but replacing 2502 with 2470 dropped the chances quite a bit for SF 1-2.

Re: Biggest upsets of 2016
 

I'm actually not that surprised by the 10,000 lakes match.
I mean, on the red alliance, you had 2052 and 525, with a combined total of 1 loss (by 525 to 2052). Each of them was scoring like 5+ high goals average.
And on the blue side...
2502, who were capable of scoring 5+ high goals easy, but were broken
2823, who could score 5 high goals, but only if we were really lucky. A good match would be like 2, and 0 was pretty common at 10k
3038, who were an awesome breacher and 3rd bot, (with no high goal scoring)
and 2470, who also couldn't score a high goal (but turns out that they were great at defense!)

So, I'd estimate a 10 high goal difference on average between the alliances going into the match. That's an insane deficit.

Re: Biggest upsets of 2016
 

I think the other odd thing to note about that match was 2470 went into the elimination rounds as the 4th replacement available. The reason they were out there was because there had already been two robots swapped in. I haven't actually heard what happened to the 3rd team. I thought it really spoke highly of 2470 that they were ready for the match.

Re: Biggest upsets of 2016
 

The upset on Newton this year. That was cool to watch and unexpected.

Re: Biggest upsets of 2016
 

Going with the majority here.. although I'd say just all of Newton elims. That 7th seed was fun to watch!

Re: Biggest upsets of 2016
 

Not really a match but 4130 was upsetting not bevahse of there team but how it played out. I was at Kettering #2 and they were just killing those defenses. It's a shame that they didn't make it to states and even worlds. They really had a solid defense destroyer robot.

Re: Biggest upsets of 2016
 

This thread is dedicated to the notion of an upset as an unexpected win in a game/sport. While there could be a conversation on losses we're all disappointed about this season, this is meant to be a discussion of against-the-odds victories.

Re: Biggest upsets of 2016
 

I second this

Re: Biggest upsets of 2016
 

Hey Caleb!

If you're working with prediction models for FRC, I'd suggest you checkout what my team, The Wired Wizards, did with ORB.

The link to the forum post is here: https://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/s...d.php?t=147817

We worked with match prediction specific to Stronghold, doing analysis based on teams affinity with different defenses... there's more information in the post...

Good luck!

Re: Biggest upsets of 2016
 

Did you ever see how accurate your predictions were? After training with data from 2011-2014, my current Elo model gets a Brier score of 0.1792 for predicting the winners of the 2016 Championship qual and playoff matches. I'm planning to try to predict matches with OPR, CCWM, and win contribution in the future and compare results.

Re: Biggest upsets of 2016
 

Alternatively, it predicted 72.3% of the winning alliances correctly.

Re: Biggest upsets of 2016
 

The project was exploratory, we were learning, but off the top of my head I think it was between 60 and 70 percent accurate.

Re: Biggest upsets of 2016
 

If you're going to compare to all of the various methods, would be cool to also compare to average qual score; anything less predictive than that is worthless basically.

Re: Biggest upsets of 2016
 

Waterloo 2016 Finals takes the cake for me. 1241 and 610 played incredibly well.

Re: Biggest upsets of 2016
 

Do you mean each team's average qual score for the matches they have already played? Average qual score for the event would just predict a tie every match.

Re: Biggest upsets of 2016
 

Wanna be lazier, try just predicting w/l based off existing win ratio for alliance at the event. I have a hunch it's as good as anything else.

Re: Biggest upsets of 2016
 

Yes, the average qual score of the team's previous matches; just like OPR uses the data from the team's previous qual matches, etc. OPR was always meant to be an improvement over average score. You can also do average winning margin as an alternate metric. OPR is supposed to be better than average score and CCWM is supposed to be better than average winning margin.

Re: Biggest upsets of 2016
 

I should have read the rules of the thread first. Sorry for posting one about my own team.

Re: Biggest upsets of 2016
 

INDCMP elims had some pretty notable upsets (the 1501-868 upset and the 71-234-1741 alliance getting knocked out in quarterfinals)

Re: Biggest upsets of 2016
 

Not necessarily an upset, but I found it really cool that the same alliance won 2 events together! (1024, 1747, 45)

Re: Biggest upsets of 2016
 

and the finals were decided by three points, it was a curse to have red bumpers...