Chief Delphi

Chief Delphi (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/index.php)
-   Rules/Strategy (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=6)
-   -   YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2017's Week 1 Regionals/Districts (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showthread.php?t=153171)

Ian Curtis 07-01-2017 19:49

YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2017's Week 1 Regionals/Districts
 
Mostly, this thread is so we can look back in eight weeks and realize how terribly wrong we were. Qualifying round is probably the most useful, but elimination scores are interesting to try and peg as well.

If you can post a reasoning that's awesome, but we'll take just a number as well.

Click here for last year's predictions (2016)

The predicted average from this thread last year was ~28 points for qualifying matches, and the actual week 1 average qualifying score was about 70 according to TBA.

2016 stats from TBA


Previous Years
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

Good luck!

Hitchhiker 42 07-01-2017 19:53

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2017's Week 1 Regionals/Districts
 
I'm going with 120. The point values seem much higher this year, and even a gear in auto can give you half that right off the bat.

M217 07-01-2017 19:55

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2017's Week 1 Regionals/Districts
 
Safe in the knowledge that I probably am not the only one making terrible predictions here, I'm going to guess 130pts for qual matches on average.

Hitchhiker 42 07-01-2017 19:56

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2017's Week 1 Regionals/Districts
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by M217 (Post 1626748)
Safe in the knowledge that I probably am not the only one making terrible predictions here, I'm going to guess 130pts for qual matches on average.

Yay we can be wrong together!

dellagd 07-01-2017 19:58

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2017's Week 1 Regionals/Districts
 
I'd also wager around 120. Also, OP, poll for this?

dilley 07-01-2017 20:04

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2017's Week 1 Regionals/Districts
 
65, I think this game is going to be alot more challenging then we think.

Cog 07-01-2017 20:06

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2017's Week 1 Regionals/Districts
 
110pts (40 right off the bat + 40 for one propeller + A bit extra to account for the occasional gear auto and balls)

tig567899 07-01-2017 20:09

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2017's Week 1 Regionals/Districts
 
Likely going for 130. The avg team can probs score a gear in auto...

NShep98 07-01-2017 20:13

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2017's Week 1 Regionals/Districts
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by tig567899 (Post 1626766)
Likely going for 130. The avg team can probs score a gear in auto...

I wouldn't count on that, especially not Week 1

I'd guess around the 110-120 range

wilsonmw04 07-01-2017 20:13

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2017's Week 1 Regionals/Districts
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by tig567899 (Post 1626766)
Likely going for 130. The avg team can probs score a gear in auto...

I think the average district or regional will have a score of ~80. auto will be mostly 5 point move forward. Most teams will score zero gears in auto and 1-2 per average alliance will be scored.

This is going to be similar to the mini bot. folks will spend the whole time figuring out how to score the gears and forget how to get the gears in the first place.

mman1506 07-01-2017 20:16

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2017's Week 1 Regionals/Districts
 
150 pts

My guess is we will see on average at least one climber on each alliance with a decent chance of two so we should see at least 90 points even in weak matches. Most robots will probably have the ability to score a gear or fuel albeit slowly so seeing 2 rotors spinning shouldn't be uncommon.

Rangel 07-01-2017 20:22

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2017's Week 1 Regionals/Districts
 
Going to guess about 110-120. That's 2 rotors, and a little extra. I'm assuming some alliances will score leds and some will score more but I think will be on average 110-120.

carpedav000 07-01-2017 20:42

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2017's Week 1 Regionals/Districts
 
175 pts. I'm predicting at least 2 gear sets, 1 climb, and 100 high goals per match.

Green Potato 07-01-2017 20:45

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2017's Week 1 Regionals/Districts
 
I'm betting that for 50% of alliances, you'll get a successful auto gear. Moreover, you'll probably be able to find at least 1 bot that can do gears, so I'll say that they can get done 3 or 4 in teleop. Either way, that's the average of 100 and 80 points, or 90 total points.

I have a feeling that an alliance will have a climb 25% of the time, so tack on an additional 12.5 points. Total: 112.5.

I have a hunch that not too many balls will be scored, but let's say that 2 bins of balls wind up going in the low goal, or the equivilent thereof. That's 100 balls minus spillage, or 11 points minus a bit. Lets's be optimistic: only a bit spills, and you get 10 points.

Perhaps 1 foul may occur on the enemy alliance half the time. Value: 2.5 points.

Grand total: 125 points.

Keep in mind that this estimation includes all matches, including elims.

NathanStro 07-01-2017 20:51

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2017's Week 1 Regionals/Districts
 
Due to easiness of scoring points with the gears and hanging I am predicting the average is 250

Karibou 07-01-2017 20:56

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2017's Week 1 Regionals/Districts
 
100 for quals, ~150 for elims. Scoring gears will be a bit difficult at first but will become easier after the first few matches so the scores will, as usual, increase as the day goes on. I think that week 1 climbs will be rare.

carpedav000 07-01-2017 21:01

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2017's Week 1 Regionals/Districts
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Green Potato (Post 1626792)
I have a hunch that not too many balls will be scored, but let's say that 2 bins of balls wind up going in the low goal, or the equivilent thereof. That's 100 balls minus spillage, or 11 points minus a bit. Lets's be optimistic: only a bit spills, and you get 10 points.

Im gonna have to disagree with you here. From what I see, every team that plans on scoring balls plans on hitting around 5 high goals per second. Let's say they they spent an average of one minute total shooting throughout the match (which seems reasonable). Considering they have 90 percent shooting accuracy, that's give/take 220 high goals per match, which is 73 points per match.

MARS_James 07-01-2017 21:08

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2017's Week 1 Regionals/Districts
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by mman1506 (Post 1626772)
150 pts

My guess is we will see on average at least one climber on each alliance with a decent chance of two so we should see at least 90 points even in weak matches.

As someone on a team who climbed quite a lot last year; climbing was much simpler last year and only about 11% of people actually did it.

I am going to say 90 is the average score in week 1. But I feel this game will have the largest jump between average qual and average elim scores ever.

bearbot 07-01-2017 21:18

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2017's Week 1 Regionals/Districts
 
Regional average will be 140 with elims 180 . Districts average will be 75 and elims will be 120

TDav540 07-01-2017 21:23

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2017's Week 1 Regionals/Districts
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by MARS_James (Post 1626814)
As someone on a team who climbed quite a lot last year; climbing was much simpler last year and only about 11% of people actually did it.

I am going to say 90 is the average score in week 1. But I feel this game will have the largest jump between average qual and average elim scores ever.

I think climbing is a tad easier this year, but only slightly. I'm gonna guess only about 11-12% climb again.

90 sounds about right, and I totally agree. The difference between one, two, and three rotors is enormous, and those will jump to three quickly in elims (not even mentioning the possibility of a fourth rotor).

team5682zs 08-01-2017 17:38

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2017's Week 1 Regionals/Districts
 
There is one free rotor upstairs.

Everyone has the opportunity to have the gear on their robot on start.
All robots pass baseline in auto 15 points
1 "not freebee" gear at auto. 60 pts.
1 more gear in possession already and the freebee is another 40 pts.
Then its a stretch.

Perhaps one climb... and enough fuel for 5 more points. That's 45 fuel in Low Goal.

150 points.

mman1506 08-01-2017 18:09

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2017's Week 1 Regionals/Districts
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by MARS_James (Post 1626814)
As someone on a team who climbed quite a lot last year; climbing was much simpler last year and only about 11% of people actually did it.

I am going to say 90 is the average score in week 1. But I feel this game will have the largest jump between average qual and average elim scores ever.

Climbing was also lower valued last year. It wasn't uncommon to see teams capable of climbing to choose not to due to the time required even at a high level of play. With so many teams choosing to restricting themselves to fit under the low bar it made climbing challenging usually requiring a complex linear motion mechanism taking up a very significant amount of space. Powerhouse teams like 254, 971, 1241 etc didn't prioritize climbing until champs if at all. I doubt we will see any powerhouse team unable to climb this year.

Bkeeneykid 08-01-2017 18:15

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2017's Week 1 Regionals/Districts
 
I'm thinking that a good amount of teams are going to be able to get gears, and teams in elims will do better at that, just elims introduces significantly more defensive strategies. I'm going to wager that elims are going to be not that much more than quals. The main difference will be that the high goal shooters will be on average more accurate. With that being said:
Quals: 150
Elims: 175

snoman 08-01-2017 18:24

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2017's Week 1 Regionals/Districts
 
155 avg. qual. pts end of week 1. What do i get when I win with this prediction?

connor.worley 08-01-2017 18:24

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2017's Week 1 Regionals/Districts
 
40

KosmicKhaos 08-01-2017 18:40

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2017's Week 1 Regionals/Districts
 
How often do we think we will be seeing ranking points earned from fuel or gears?

My guess is ranking points from gears will be incredibly rare and we will see a ranking point from fuel about 50% of matches at least in the first 1-2 weeks.

KosmicKhaos 08-01-2017 19:06

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2017's Week 1 Regionals/Districts
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by MARS_James (Post 1626814)
But I feel this game will have the largest jump between average qual and average elim scores ever.

Call me crazy but I think the jump will be smaller than recent years. I think elim scores could actually be lower than quals scores especially in later weeks.

The reason I say this is because of defense. During quals I don't think we will see a lot of defense but once elims comes i think we will. Especially around the airship. You can send two robots to play defense on the airship which would severely limit how easy it is to get rotors moving and get high scores.

If a team sends two robots to play defense on the airship we will see unbelieveably low scores.

evanperryg 08-01-2017 19:21

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2017's Week 1 Regionals/Districts
 
hehehe

I'm predicting 135 avg in quals, anywhere from 130-220 in elims depending on pick position. I'll go with an elim average of 190.

Andhika 08-01-2017 19:23

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2017's Week 1 Regionals/Districts
 
15 pts - 3 Robots Passing the Baseline in Autonomous
120 pts - 3 Rotors Turning
10 pts - Boiler Score
= 145 pts on average

I think that teams would at least be able to get the 15 in autonomous for driving forward and most would probably go for the gears first instead of the balls, resulting in at least 3 if not all 4 of the rotors turning. There will also be alliance matchups where at least 1 robot would be specialized in scoring and could earn some points there.

A 145 pt average seems reasonable to me.

Andhika 08-01-2017 19:29

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2017's Week 1 Regionals/Districts
 
15 pts - 3 Robots Passing the Baseline in Autonomous
120 pts - 3 Rotors Turning
10 pts - Boiler Score
= 145 pts on average

I think that teams would at least be able to get the 15 in autonomous for driving forward and most would probably go for the gears first instead of the balls, resulting in at least 3 if not all 4 of the rotors turning. There will also be alliance matchups where at least 1 robot would be specialized in scoring and could earn some points there.

A 145 pt average seems reasonable to me.

cd_ssb 08-01-2017 19:30

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2017's Week 1 Regionals/Districts
 
I'd say around 150. The auto gear is a relatively easy 60 points scored, and most mid level alliances should be able to score many gears and around 150 balls in the boiler.

SoccerTaco 08-01-2017 21:59

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2017's Week 1 Regionals/Districts
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by MARS_James (Post 1626814)
As someone on a team who climbed quite a lot last year; climbing was much simpler last year and only about 11% of people actually did it.

Last year the difference between parking and scaling was 10 points.
This year it is 0 vs 50 for climbing.
This will make it a higher priority for teams.

I don't know if more teams will actually succeed, but do think more teams will at least try to climb this year.

TheJollyReaper 09-01-2017 01:30

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2017's Week 1 Regionals/Districts
 
After giving my lucky kitty a belly rub I can say with complete certainty that the average will be exactly 137 points.

madman404 09-01-2017 11:57

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2017's Week 1 Regionals/Districts
 
I agree with Andhika at the 145 point average. Also, you have to consider the possibility of chaos bots flooding the field with balls amd making driving troublesome for gear bots.

Chris Hapstack 09-01-2017 12:25

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2017's Week 1 Regionals/Districts
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by carpedav000 (Post 1626804)
Im gonna have to disagree with you here. From what I see, every team that plans on scoring balls plans on hitting around 5 high goals per second. Let's say they they spent an average of one minute total shooting throughout the match (which seems reasonable). Considering they have 90 percent shooting accuracy, that's give/take 220 high goals per match, which is 73 points per match.

Show me the robot that can shoot 5 balls/sec at 90% accuracy and I'll show you either a Championship division winner, a liar, or Andy Baker.

But in all seriousness, I think high goal scoring is going to be slow and messy at best for any non-powerhouse team. Small target + defenders + parabolic shot trajectories = chaos.

(Shout-out to my favorite spotlighted quote)

Chris Hapstack 09-01-2017 13:08

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2017's Week 1 Regionals/Districts
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris Hapstack (Post 1627905)
Show me the robot that can shoot 5 balls/sec at 90% accuracy and I'll show you either a Championship division winner, a liar, or Andy Baker.

It's common knowledge that Andy is actually a robot (in a good way - it's how he understands them so well) and is himself capable of this scoring feat.

JesseK 09-01-2017 13:15

Re: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2017's Week 1 Regionals/Districts
 
QUALS: 80. Free Rotor + some putzing around with gears and an auton crossing or two.
ELIMS: 165. Someone in most matches will have a Gear Auto, and teams can easily scrape together 3 rotors. Defense will be a factor, so it won't happen all of the time. Balls and Hangs will make up for defense in average matches.


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 20:29.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © Chief Delphi