Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

There is a lot of talk about High Efficiency Goal Shooting that is, well, kinda crazy if you ask me.

There are a lot of threads discussing this or that aspect of H.E.G shooting (e.g. Realistic high goal scoring rate). The general tone seems to imply that air above a STEAMWORKS Field is going to be thick with fuel on its way to clogging the counter mechanisms in the boilers.

On a more sobering note, I have published Dr. Joe's 3 "Don't Bother Unless..." Rules For High Efficiency Goal Shooting which includes this prediction: On this issue at least I seem to be at odds with the CD community.

To try to gain allignment, I propose the following thought experiment:

Consider the teams at Worlds playing in the qualifying matches. For each team you can calculate a median number of balls that they scored in the High Efficiency Goal (note I prefer ball count not Kpa as it makes explicit how many balls we are talking about). Consider the population of these median numbers.

1. 1 out of ___ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >50
2. 1 out of ___ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >100
3. 1 out of ___ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >200
4. 1 out of ___ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >400

I am really interested in what people think these numbers will be. I have a guess but from what I can infer, my guesses are much lower than the general CD population.

I am very serious. I ask all CD to provide your best guess as to these 4 numbers.

Cheers,
Dr. Joe J.

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

I predict that there will be many pop corn machines. We all envision that stream of balls flowing into the hopper. It will be a very elusive sight. How many teams will surpass 50% efficiency?

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

Oh yeah. Here are my guesses:

1. 1 out of 10 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >50
2. 1 out of 50 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >100
3. 1 out of 100 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >200
4. 1 out of 400 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >400

ALSO.. ...I feel a gift card competition coming on.

IF some clever FIRST stats person can figure out a way to get a reasonably good estimate of this number from the publicly available numbers that FIRST publishes then I will provide a $20 gift card to the person who guesses the best*

Any takers.

Dr. Joe J.

Details:

• One Guess Per CD username.
• All entries are to this thread must be made prior to your local "Stop Build" Time.
• Editing your post invalidates the entry.
• Updated guesses are allowed but invalidate all prior entries for that person.

*lowest Sqrt(sum(error^2)) using data from both Worlds this year

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

1. 1 out of 2 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >50
2. 1 out of 3 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >100
3. 1 out of 100 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >200
4. No teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >400

I will be stunned if a single team can go out on the field and score > 400 fuel per match. My best estimate is the very best H.E.G. will top out around 300-350. It may reach 400 without defense, but then again very few games are played without defense.

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

1. 1 out of 4 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >50
2. 1 out of 118 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >100
3. 1 out of 330 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >200
4. 1 out of 1678 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >400

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

1. 1 out of 2 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >50
2. 1 out of 3 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >100
3. 1 out of 15 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >200
4. 1 out of 600 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >400

Didn't read instructions right. Ratio'd my numbers so that it's pretty much the same.

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

I think this game is going to be much different in quals than elims. Last year was pretty much the same game in both quals and elims.

I don't see teams just pelting the boiler with fuel after they achieve the 40 KPA to get the RP. But I do see alliances putting as much fuel as possible into the boiler during the whole match in elims. As the fuel is the differentiator of the alliances.

I'm not even going to put numbers to your question because I don't see them relevant to a successful qualification match robot. Though I am interested in what the mob has to say about the matter.

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

Love the thread. I 1000% agree that many teams are going to waste so much build time and match time trying to mess around with Fuel. With that said, my team is one of those teams, but we have the resources to pull it off.

To answer your question:

1. 1 out of 8 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >50
2. 1 out of 20 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >100
3. 1 out of 100 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >200
4. 1 out of infinity teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >400

The reason I think so few teams will score high numbers of Fuel at champs is because I believe cycling gears will prove to be the priority well into champs qualifications. I doubt alliances will quickly and consistently cycle 12 gears, and leave enough time to do a significant amount of Fuel scoring. Many alliances will realize they have no hope of getting to 12 Gears, and they'll start scoring Fuel after their 6th Gear. Also, many teams will understand there is a very small benefit to scoring more than 40kPa during quals so they'll stop at that point and focus on gear cycling/defense/climbing depending on how much time is left in the match.

Many hoppers will be able to hold well over 100 Fuel. Last I checked, ours held 120 if it was filled to the brim. Many teams will be able to output 3-4 Fuel/second, taking up to 30-40 seconds to empty their large hopper. Very few teams will be able to hit with much accuracy when shooting at 3-4 Fuel/second and playing against a defender hitting them consistently.

With that said, I think some very smart teams will go away from the large 120 ball hopper with shooting speeds of 3-4 balls/second and go towards a smaller (20 Fuel) "hopper" that will allow for speeds of around 10 Fuel/second, and they'll mix these rapid fire bursts into their Gear cycles.

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

This is for all teams attending championship, not all teams in eliminations or anything.

1. 1 out of 4 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >50
2. 1 out of 10 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >100
3. 1 out of 100 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >200
4. 1 out of 400 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >400

All of these numbers are deflated because having to do gears will take away from the shot volumes of teams who would score more doing balls.

The first one may be generous, but 50 balls in the high goal is one hopper full. That's not that bad. Even most robots primarily doing gears will get one vomit in there. So basically, lots of teams in the eliminations will be able to do this, but only a dozen or so per division will consistently do this in quals.

The second one is also kind of generous, but I'm thinking 7 teams in a 75 team division will be that good at balls, sure.

Third is, four robots per Championship, coincidentally the four strongest divisions. Fourth I just say one per Championship? Is not guessing "infinity" if nobody does this, and guessing infinity if somebody does, means instantly losing?

It's not so much that it's hard, it's that the effort to reward is way out of whack, and people need to prioritize gear cycles. I feel like all four of my guesses are too generous.

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

1 out of _20__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >50
1 out of _40__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >100
1 out of _100__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >200
1 out of __400_ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >400

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

1 out of ___4 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >50
1 out of __40 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >100
1 out of _400 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >200
No teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >400

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

1 out of 3 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >50
1 out of 10 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >100
1 out of 100 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >200
1 out of 600 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >400

I think a decent proportion of teams will be able to score more than 50 fuel. It may take them much of the match to do so, but...
Higher level teams (most will end up as alliance captains or first picks) will be capable of more than 100.
Maybe one team per division will be capable of more than 200.
I doubt more than 1 or 2 teams in the world will score 400, if any.

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

1 out of 4 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >50 at worlds
1 out of 6 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >100 at worlds
1 out of 36 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >200 at worlds
1 out of 400 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >400 at worlds