Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

There is a lot of talk about High Efficiency Goal Shooting that is, well, kinda crazy if you ask me.

There are a lot of threads discussing this or that aspect of H.E.G shooting (e.g. Realistic high goal scoring rate). The general tone seems to imply that air above a STEAMWORKS Field is going to be thick with fuel on its way to clogging the counter mechanisms in the boilers.

On a more sobering note, I have published Dr. Joe's 3 "Don't Bother Unless..." Rules For High Efficiency Goal Shooting which includes this prediction: On this issue at least I seem to be at odds with the CD community.

To try to gain allignment, I propose the following thought experiment:

Consider the teams at Worlds playing in the qualifying matches. For each team you can calculate a median number of balls that they scored in the High Efficiency Goal (note I prefer ball count not Kpa as it makes explicit how many balls we are talking about). Consider the population of these median numbers.

1. 1 out of ___ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >50
2. 1 out of ___ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >100
3. 1 out of ___ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >200
4. 1 out of ___ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >400

I am really interested in what people think these numbers will be. I have a guess but from what I can infer, my guesses are much lower than the general CD population.

I am very serious. I ask all CD to provide your best guess as to these 4 numbers.

Cheers,
Dr. Joe J.

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

I predict that there will be many pop corn machines. We all envision that stream of balls flowing into the hopper. It will be a very elusive sight. How many teams will surpass 50% efficiency?

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

Oh yeah. Here are my guesses:

1. 1 out of 10 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >50
2. 1 out of 50 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >100
3. 1 out of 100 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >200
4. 1 out of 400 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >400

ALSO.. ...I feel a gift card competition coming on.

IF some clever FIRST stats person can figure out a way to get a reasonably good estimate of this number from the publicly available numbers that FIRST publishes then I will provide a $20 gift card to the person who guesses the best*

Any takers.

Dr. Joe J.

Details:

• One Guess Per CD username.
• All entries are to this thread must be made prior to your local "Stop Build" Time.
• Editing your post invalidates the entry.
• Updated guesses are allowed but invalidate all prior entries for that person.

*lowest Sqrt(sum(error^2)) using data from both Worlds this year

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

1. 1 out of 2 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >50
2. 1 out of 3 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >100
3. 1 out of 100 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >200
4. No teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >400

I will be stunned if a single team can go out on the field and score > 400 fuel per match. My best estimate is the very best H.E.G. will top out around 300-350. It may reach 400 without defense, but then again very few games are played without defense.

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

1. 1 out of 4 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >50
2. 1 out of 118 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >100
3. 1 out of 330 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >200
4. 1 out of 1678 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >400

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

1. 1 out of 2 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >50
2. 1 out of 3 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >100
3. 1 out of 15 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >200
4. 1 out of 600 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >400

Didn't read instructions right. Ratio'd my numbers so that it's pretty much the same.

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

I think this game is going to be much different in quals than elims. Last year was pretty much the same game in both quals and elims.

I don't see teams just pelting the boiler with fuel after they achieve the 40 KPA to get the RP. But I do see alliances putting as much fuel as possible into the boiler during the whole match in elims. As the fuel is the differentiator of the alliances.

I'm not even going to put numbers to your question because I don't see them relevant to a successful qualification match robot. Though I am interested in what the mob has to say about the matter.

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

Love the thread. I 1000% agree that many teams are going to waste so much build time and match time trying to mess around with Fuel. With that said, my team is one of those teams, but we have the resources to pull it off.

To answer your question:

1. 1 out of 8 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >50
2. 1 out of 20 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >100
3. 1 out of 100 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >200
4. 1 out of infinity teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >400

The reason I think so few teams will score high numbers of Fuel at champs is because I believe cycling gears will prove to be the priority well into champs qualifications. I doubt alliances will quickly and consistently cycle 12 gears, and leave enough time to do a significant amount of Fuel scoring. Many alliances will realize they have no hope of getting to 12 Gears, and they'll start scoring Fuel after their 6th Gear. Also, many teams will understand there is a very small benefit to scoring more than 40kPa during quals so they'll stop at that point and focus on gear cycling/defense/climbing depending on how much time is left in the match.

Many hoppers will be able to hold well over 100 Fuel. Last I checked, ours held 120 if it was filled to the brim. Many teams will be able to output 3-4 Fuel/second, taking up to 30-40 seconds to empty their large hopper. Very few teams will be able to hit with much accuracy when shooting at 3-4 Fuel/second and playing against a defender hitting them consistently.

With that said, I think some very smart teams will go away from the large 120 ball hopper with shooting speeds of 3-4 balls/second and go towards a smaller (20 Fuel) "hopper" that will allow for speeds of around 10 Fuel/second, and they'll mix these rapid fire bursts into their Gear cycles.

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

This is for all teams attending championship, not all teams in eliminations or anything.

1. 1 out of 4 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >50
2. 1 out of 10 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >100
3. 1 out of 100 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >200
4. 1 out of 400 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >400

All of these numbers are deflated because having to do gears will take away from the shot volumes of teams who would score more doing balls.

The first one may be generous, but 50 balls in the high goal is one hopper full. That's not that bad. Even most robots primarily doing gears will get one vomit in there. So basically, lots of teams in the eliminations will be able to do this, but only a dozen or so per division will consistently do this in quals.

The second one is also kind of generous, but I'm thinking 7 teams in a 75 team division will be that good at balls, sure.

Third is, four robots per Championship, coincidentally the four strongest divisions. Fourth I just say one per Championship? Is not guessing "infinity" if nobody does this, and guessing infinity if somebody does, means instantly losing?

It's not so much that it's hard, it's that the effort to reward is way out of whack, and people need to prioritize gear cycles. I feel like all four of my guesses are too generous.

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

1 out of _20__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >50
1 out of _40__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >100
1 out of _100__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >200
1 out of __400_ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >400

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

1 out of ___4 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >50
1 out of __40 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >100
1 out of _400 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >200
No teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >400

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

1 out of 3 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >50
1 out of 10 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >100
1 out of 100 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >200
1 out of 600 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >400

I think a decent proportion of teams will be able to score more than 50 fuel. It may take them much of the match to do so, but...
Higher level teams (most will end up as alliance captains or first picks) will be capable of more than 100.
Maybe one team per division will be capable of more than 200.
I doubt more than 1 or 2 teams in the world will score 400, if any.

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

1 out of 4 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >50 at worlds
1 out of 6 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >100 at worlds
1 out of 36 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >200 at worlds
1 out of 400 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >400 at worlds

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

1 out of _50__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >50
1 out of _80__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >100
1 out of _500__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >200
1 out of _the world_ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >400

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

1. 1 out of _10__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >50
2. 1 out of _20__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >100
3. 1 out of _25__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >200
4. 1 out of _sideways 8__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >400

Explanation: Indiana has roughly 50 teams in it. I could see five of those teams >50. I could see two robots at each event >100, and an event has 30-40 teams. If a team can hit >100, they can probably hit >200. As for >400, that would involve a comeback of the 2006 A-Bomb.

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

1.1 out of _50__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >50
2.1 out of _100__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >100
3.1 out of _300__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >200
4.1 out of _1500__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >400

Interesting that you chose median and not mean. To that, in qual rounds, at least half of your matches will have alliance partners that struggle to get 6 gears between the two of them. So will you focus on the other 6 gears for higher points or fuel?

I can see a team that is capable of shooting 150+ balls in a match as making the decision to get the fuel RP and stopping at 100 balls and then finishing the gears. But more often than not they will need to focus on gears for the higher point value and skip fuel.
Note that 100 balls is 1 RP if you get your 10 in auto, then 90 in teleop.

I've been a long term pessimist though.

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

1. 1 out of 4 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >50
2. 1 out of 9 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >100
3. 1 out of 63 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >200
4. 1 out of 420 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >400

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

Does it count as an edit if I change to this:
1 out of _503__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >200

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

I'll allow it. Consider your priority date intact and your guess as 503.

Dr. Joe J.

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

Two things.

First, no clever stats person has stepped up to say they will make an "OPR-type" statistical estimator of median High Efficiency Goal ball count so... ...another $20 gift card prize that will never be claimed :(

Second, how would people change their answer if instead of MEDIAN H.E.G. ball count the question asked to predict MAX H.E.G. ball count? Specifically, how would you fill in the following 8 blanks:

1. 1 out of ___/___ teams will have a median/max H.E.G. ball count that is >50
2. 1 out of ___/___ teams will have a median/max H.E.G. ball count that is >100
3. 1 out of ___/___ teams will have a median/max H.E.G. ball count that is >200
4. 1 out of ___/___ teams will have a median/max H.E.G. ball count that is >400

Your thoughts are welcome.

Dr. Joe J.

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

1 out of 3/2 teams will have a median/max H.E.G. ball count that is >50
1 out of 10/5 teams will have a median/max H.E.G. ball count that is >100
1 out of 100/40 teams will have a median/max H.E.G. ball count that is >200
1 out of 600/600 teams will have a median/max H.E.G. ball count that is >400

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

I'm just going to submit my guess for median HEG ball count as a guess for max HEG ball count. I feel like my median guess was too high so this would make for a nice hedge of my bet.

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

My estimate remains the same. If a team can hit that kind of accuracy, then that team can do it consistently.

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

1.1 out of _4__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >50
2.1 out of _9__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >100
3.1 out of _50__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >200
4.1 out of _300__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >400

I think the balls are light enough that doing 100 is pretty reasonably easy for many teams. If you consider the ability to just dump the 50 balls from the hopper into your robot, that cuts intake time down by a ton.

So assuming it takes 25 seconds lump sum for you to collect 100 balls, (5 seconds for dump and 20 seconds for ground pickup)

Also estimating the approximate time to shoot these 100 balls, assuming you are shooting at a moderate rate of 2 balls, you are looking at about 50-55 seconds to shoot all of the balls.

I think my estimated times and firing rates are really conservative estimates.

Basically 55 + 25 = 80 seconds.

I think a team that does 1 or 2 gears would still reasonably shoot 100, a robot just shooting balls could get close to 200.

However, getting 400 is a lot of black magic to me, someone broke something about the game to be able to score that much. I don't think you'll ever see the number that high.

Playing around with our prototypes/ some initial software control we have yet to find a way to get 100% accuracy on shooting more than 2 balls per second.

If anyone has better results/ think I really missed something important on my estimates please let me know!

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

1 out of 3/2 teams will have a median/max H.E.G. ball count that is >50
1 out of 10/8 teams will have a median/max H.E.G. ball count that is >100
1 out of 30/20 teams will have a median/max H.E.G. ball count that is >200
No teams will have a median/max H.E.G. ball count that is >400

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

1. 1 out of 10 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >50
2. 1 out of 30 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >100
3. 1 out of 300 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >200
4. 1 out of all teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >400

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

You Have 135 seconds of teleoperate period assuming you shot at 100% accuracy for the whole time (other teams feeding you fuel) at 2 balls per second you sore 270 balls+ 10 balls in auto. That is 100 points. I think barely any matches will exceed 200 balls. I think playing defense and seeing if you can prevent the gear cycles will be more valuable. especially if you can prevent all four rotors.

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

While I'm no "Clever Stats Person", I believe The Blue Alliance is going to try and use OPR on fuel scored this year per event, which could then be quite easily compounded into a median or average for each team. None of this has been accomplished yet (AFAIK) because FIRST hasn't released their API that TBA feeds off of. I'd be happy to make a quick thing to calculate this once their API is finished.


Meanwhile, my predictions are as follows.
1.1 out of _5__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >50
2.1 out of _15__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >100
3.1 out of _150__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >200
4.1 out of _500__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >400

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

1 out of _5_ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >50
1 out of _10_ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >100
1 out of _500_ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >200
1 out of _all FRC_ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >400

I have my estimates saying fewer robots will make 50+ or 100+ because of ball control issues. Many teams will have shooters that can shoot 3 balls a second at 70% accuracy. The problem is, they won't be able to effectively load balls from their hoppers to their shooters. Either, balls will load to slow, inconsistently or have jamming issues feeding from the hopper. I think about 10 teams will have figured out their ball management systems and had enough driver practice to score 200+ balls on average. I was originally going to say no teams would average 400+ balls a match, but then I thought of 2056. Every year since 2009 they have had simple, non-jamming machines that are just monstars at picking game pieces off the ground. That's just my 2 cents

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

Hi Joe,

I don't know about others, but I did not respond because I'm still pondering what you meant by a team's median ball count.

The FRC API will almost certainly not provide a ball count per team for each match, so you can't compute the median of a team's ball counts for all qual matches a team played.

If the FRC API provides (which it most likely will) alliance ball count for each match in a qual event, then it's a simple matter to use the favored OPR model and algorithm (linear least squares) to estimate an OPR-like average of each teams per match ball count for each qual event. But what does "median" mean in that context?

So perhaps what you actually meant was a percentile distribution of those team ball count "OPR" estimates? That interpretation seems to reconcile better with the fill-in chart.

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

Something like this, except a single percentile curve of the vector of team "OPR estimated" ball count instead of alliance scores.

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

Here is what I mean.

Suppose you have a way to count the balls that a particular robot actually shot, entered into the top of the HEG and was actually counted by the scoring system; Let's call this number God's HEG Count for each robot for each qualifying match, which she keeps in God's STEAMWORKS Ledger (of course).

The Devil (being a detail guy of course) then hacks into The Cloud (St. Peter is famously lax on security) and gets a copy of God's STEAMWORKS Ledger. He imports the whole thing into Excel [ASIDE] I know what you are thinking, he's in Hell, why isn't he trying to do stats using Google Sheets? Funny story, it seems that they have a special ring there just for that purpose but... it is controlled access... and while the Devil could figure out a way in, he misplaced his ID while picnicing last weekend near Styx... and facilities in Hell just went to 2 factor authentication,... And MS Office came loaded on his work PC... Just like everyone else, it's just simpler for the Devil to use a MS product than find an alternative [/ASIDE] where he sorts God's HEG Count for each team from high to low then goes half way down the list where... VIOLA! ... He finds each team's Median HEG Ball Count (of course, if there are an even number of qualifying matches, he averages the middle two rows -- I told you the Devil is a detail guy...)

More on what I WANT from a stats person in another message...

Stay tuned...


Dr. Joe J.

P.S. This is all tongue in cheek. Nobody get offended please.
P.P.S. And if you are offended, I am sorry. JJ

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

Why does the stat have to be median? Would you expect a team's HEG Count distribution to be vastly skewed?

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

I think what I described (i.e. a vector of team "component OPR style estimates") is the closet thing to what you want that can be extracted from the publicly available numbers that FIRST publishes.

But I will quietly resume my lurking, awaiting a cleverer stats person to figure a way extract what you have described in the second quote from the publicly available numbers that FIRST publishes.

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

Don't you expect a lot of zeroes in there because for one reason or another the team was asked to do something else that round (run gears for example)?

I felt that median was a better number for my thought experiment because it gives a higher number than mean with all perhaps 1/3rd of the scores being zeroes due to nobody else in the match that can effectively run gears.

That said, I suppose that Mean is probably about as good as a metric and would be a lot easier to estimate.

Dr. Joe J.

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

1 out of 5/5 teams will have a median/max H.E.G. ball count that is >50
1 out of 8/5 teams will have a median/max H.E.G. ball count that is >100
1 out of 50/25 teams will have a median/max H.E.G. ball count that is >200
1 out of 1500/750 teams will have a median/max H.E.G. ball count that is >400

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

Among the subset of teams playing at Champs

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

I'm not sure what to expect, but I do know the game isn't played in a vacuum. Some matches will feature dedicated gear runners or low goal dumpers (robots that can't shoot in the HEG), and that would inflate a team's HEG count.

If there are several full field webcasts (with archives), it might be possible to try and reconcile the numbers for a few teams. I'd be interested in doing that.

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

Seems to be some west coast bias here.

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

I am curious as to how folks can have a Median/Max where the first number is larger than the second number.

If for example you have an answer of the form:

1 out of A/B teams will have a median/max H.E.G. ball count that is >N

It seems to me that A < B.

To say otherwise says that there will be more teams with a 50th percentile H.E.G. ball count above N than there are teams who's 100th percentile H.E.G. ball count above N.

Said another way, how can there be more teams with their middle score over N than had their best score over N.

Have I mistated the question somehow that is confusing people?

Dr. Joe J.

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

On the contrary, wouldnt A need to be greater than B? Since they are both ratios, and 1/4 < 1/2. It seemed like everyone did it correctly.
With that stated, here are my guesses
1 out of _4/2_ teams will have a median/max H.E.G. ball count that is >50
1 out of _10/5_ teams will have a median/max H.E.G. ball count that is >100
1 out of _75/20_ teams will have a median/max H.E.G. ball count that is >200
1 out of _infinity/100_ teams will have a median/max H.E.G. ball count that is >400

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

Alliances only need to cycle 9 gears. 3 are pre-populated. However gears 6,7 and 8 by themselves get you no points. You have to get to gear 9 to get the final points. I suspect the majority of teams will stop at gear 5.

Would this change your thinking on the number of balls scored?

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

The three pre-populated gears are in addition to the 12 gears that need to be cycled by alliances. In total, there will be 15 gears in the Airship to get all 4 Rotors spinning, but only 12 of them need to be brought there by robots. I would guess those pre-populated gears were placed there in case the gears are less of a challenge than the GDC expected, so they can increase the difficulty before champs.

Re: Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds
 

Yes! of course, I hadn't actually gone through the exercise of thinking about picking numbers or I would have realized that.

My brain had somehow flipped from N teams per group size of M rather than 1 team in N. It is a miles per gallon vs gallons per mile problem. I get it.

I knew I must be off my nut because a lot of smart people and lower second numbers.

Thanks for squaring me up.

Dr. Joe J.