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Predicitions For The Rest Of Us
With the recent scrimmages at DC and other places, we now figured out how the game will work more. Now, we have Mr. Car Nack, but I want to know, what's your predicitions for this year? What will be good? What will be bad? Here's mine:
-Only those who can hang exclusively at the beginning will hang. -10pt balls will make life easier -There will be many high scoring matches and lots of low socring ones too -Multiplyer balls will decide the game during the finals -The biggest headache this year will be the mobile goals |
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I don't think the mobile goals will be doing much of anything. Here are my predictions:
- The little red balls will turn the playing field into a minefield. Those with "add-on" (not integral to chassis) ball herding designs will either fail completely or not herd enough balls to be worth it. - There will be many matches in which the autonomous balls will not be touched, either through lack of autonomous programs or lack of interest. - Those who hang well will be few, and those who hang quickly will be fewer. Those 50 points are going to really matter. - The 12" platform and surrounding 6" level will be a battlefield for those who choose to start hanging from the platforms :) |
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After they are pressed up against one of the openings on the player station to block them, the mobile goals wont be doing much of anything... |
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Predictions after a mini-tournament held in SD last Saturday.
1. Hangers get lots of oohs and aaahs 2. Everyone likes to get complimented for their hanger design but climbing stairs causes bots to fall down and not get up 3. The large 2x ball is hard to maneuver without being dislodged 4. Ball herders will have the floor to themselves while the hangers bang at the summit 5. He who hangs first hangs best. the devil will take the hindmost 6. Mobile goals will be a factor and 1 goal cannot block 2 ports of entry 7. If a part can break or a bot can go boom its better to do it now than at the big show! |
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1. A robot that can reliably take the 6" steps against opposition and hang will win regionals/nationals.
2. No robot that "caps" as its primary strategy will make it into the finals in any regional or nationals. 3. No robot with 12.5" wheels will make it into finals in any regional or nationals. 4. 75% of all robots with 12.5" wheels will have a badly degraded drive system by the end of the first regional. 5. Scouting will be more important this year than any other year. Every strategy (except for the one in #1 above) has a hole in it. Proper planning (even by a box on wheels) can negate almost any strategy. 6. Because hanging is so devastating, those teams who can do it will need to find a way to get onto the middle platform in autonomy. Otherwise, they will have to get onto the platform against active opposition. 7. Over 50% of all matches will have one or more robots on their sides/backs before the end of the match. |
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Going out on a limb here...
Prediction: Things will get broken. |
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4. REFEREES WILL HAVE THEIR HANDS FULL!
3. In some games, there will be more penalty flags than balls on the floor. 2. Ball popping maybe common and a crowd pleaser! 1. 13 inch ball travelling at 10m/s becomes lethal to robots :yikes: |
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two things that will decide the game...small balls & being able to hang imho.....2X will have an effect, but not a huge one.....
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What is the big problem with 12.5" wheels? Why will no robots with such wheels be succesful or have degraded drive systems? Is it merely because these wheels ride up on the small balls? Please elaborate
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Also, the high ground clearance with most 12.5" wheel teams will result in high centering on balls or make the robots easy to push around. Further, by raising center of gravity, robots with the 12.5" wheels will be more likely to tip over when approaching the 6" step. Teams which have anticipated these issues can design around them. |
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Thanks for that follow up Andrew. We sure found out the hard way that the larger wheels do transfer an increased amount of torque through the drive system. After stripping one of our nylon gears we upgraded to steel gears all around. Hopefully this upgrade and our unique lowrider design will overcome the 12.5" wheels of doom!! Thanks, again
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I think it's a bit soon to say that. We have yet to see a single real match be played with real working robots, and completely to spec field components. besides, that's pretty impossible, both by the numbers, and in practice. Will the 2x ball be as large a factor as we first thought? we will see. excellent ball handlers would compliment a robot like 1083, 93, or 1028 perfectly (All the ball suckers I can recall at this point) and should be able to get very far. Cory |
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-2X will be vastly underrated
-Purple balls will be overrated -Hanging will win most games -Defense will not win -OOB will be the greatest alliance. |
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likely no.. but its still like something thats going to be highly needed for teams that are ONLY working w/ small balls and not worrying about hanging... espically teams with hoppers... so this is why the capping the 2x WILL make it into the finals AS LONG AS they can herd balls like mad good and have a good HP =D |
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The most effective robots will be the ones that combine an excellent handling of the small balls with the ability to hang while on the carpet.
the only robots that will be effective at handling the small balls are the ones that store the balls internally. the robots that hang while off of the platform will be much much much more effective than the ones that need to be on the platform to hang. |
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I don't post a whole lot of messages on Chief Delphi, but as a member of a team that has been doing this for ten years I feel very obligated to throw all of my support behind heretic and solace... 177 is building a robot that will control small balls very well this year... we will also be able to control all 3 2x balls at the same time AND we will be able to hang from the carpet...bots who hang during autonomous WASTE 1:45... better to have a robot that will play the whole match
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im supported... wow... thats a first on the CD forums w00t LOL!!! if your at nats ill be looking for ya 177... or at BAE or UTC (to lazy to look at lists lol!)
*edit* when did i say that a good ball herder couldnt cap the 2x!?! its to late lol! |
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hey David, I didn't know that your bot could do the big balls. It must have evolved alot since when I saw it at the UTC scrimmage.
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Successful robots will rely on there alliance more this year in previous year. There will be few robot who do everything effectively and almost none that can consistently win matches by themselves.
Those who do everything will do well in Qualifying but will be knocked out in the finals. Small balls were overlooked by many teams. Effective small ball gathering almost gurantees you a spot in finals. Human Players with no balls will be hugely ineffective. The 2x ball and hanging will make the show though. People will be angry about how penalties are called. Everything won't be the same from competition to competition. It will take an amazing alliance of robots to win this. 2 minutes will seem shorter this year. It will be fun and exciting, maybe more than normal. |
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There will be at least one robot that will expand to cover the entire top platform, with legs down on the sides to maintain location. It will also have an arm that will be held down by power, and retract when power is removed. This robot will also be in the finals.
I see FIRST event equipment(camera, scoring) being damaged by flying balls at atleast one regional. I see volunteer field resetters overshooting the ball dump and landing a ball on the head of some unsuspecting student/robot behind the player station. I see alot of robots falling over backwards trying to climb the first stair and blocking movement on that half the field. I see alot of wheelie bars being added on Tursday afternoon. Wetzel |
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ngreen... you did mention that effective small ball gathering will get you to finals... only IF!!!!! they have a good human player... and a good strat w/ the other human player...
cordination between the two HP's will be HUGELY critical before the match starts... like who gets the first throw and to tell eachother when they are out of balls... or if one is not skilled... passing the balls to the other may be a huge part if your team has one of the best robots, but a skill lacking HP... |
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- Hangers are the eye catchers
- neglecting the small balls will be a loser - most success will have the alliances that compliment each other best - small ball gatherers seem to be rare - I predict those will be preferred picks in the finals - herding will be difficult, and a lot of alliances will take each other out because of them darn little red balls .... - vacuum cleaning between the matches to get all those lost bolts, nuts, and other robot parts off the field will be common! - WE WILL ALL HAVE A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF FUN! (anybody wanna challenge that prediction?) |
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One thing is for sure - this year is going to be a ton of fun! When the game was unveiled, I knew it was going to be good, perhaps the best I've been in ('99 is still my favorite). After the open house at Team 537 on Sunday, my initial thought was confirmed. There is just so much going on in this game that a boring match will be very rare. The eliminations will be very unpredictable because like someone said, even a box on wheels can disrupt the best strategy this year. I just can't wait for regionals to start!
Kev |
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That's a relief. We on 229 were scared you were going arm-less! It's good to know some things never change. John ;) |
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Hanging robots that has power and can stop any other robot from hanging will be a hard robot to stop.
For those who can grab the bar from the carpet will be great but when there is a robot that can stop that then what? What also will be a be plus for robots is a robot that grabs all the balls while they drop from the stack. this robot will be great. the only thing would be if that robot goes up against two robot that can hang 115 point will be hard to beat. I will assume that the human can make 50%. I always favor the low strong robots. Most of the time they come up on TOP. |
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all i say is i hope first has some ladders to remove robots from that bar.
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They lower the bar ;) |
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I think:
FIRST will make one major rule change after the first weekend of Regionals (penalties maybe). The best alliance will be a ball gatherer paired with a multiplier ball robot, but hanging will ultimately determine the winner. There will be at least 1 team that wins 3 regionals. Hanging from the carpet is more important than most people think. HP balls will fly all over the place, hitting judges, and probably even Dean Kamen. Alliances that win will have two excellent robots. Finally, none of these will actually happen because everything changes once regionals begin. |
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~Robots will be found to be less durable against... projectiles than their builders believe them to be.
~THE SCOUTS WILL BE REVERED AS GODS!!! ~There will have to be lots of communication between alliances, drive team members, pits and scouts. Can we say headsets? ~Lots of robots will end up tipped over from trying to climb. ~Rounds of Kick Ball will be played outside on the green at Nats in honor of such an awesome game ~Everything that could possibly go wrong, can and will all at once. ~Prices will still be outrageous at every competition. ~THE SCOUTS WILL BE REVERED AS GODS!!! ~Awesome times to be had and tons of friends to be made. ~It will break. It will always break. :rolleyes::D |
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Hanging will be a big part of the game this year. At recent scrimmages, teams that could hang most likely came out to be victorious.
The 2x ball does not seem to be as big a factor as many think. This could simply be because at the scrimmages, a lot of teams did not attempt to cap the goals. Herding doesn't seem to be as big a factor as many thought either. Hanging and being able to control the ramp seemed to be a deciding factor in many matches. Human Players shooting will be an advantage. Since herding did not seem to be initiated, so being able to get the balls that you start with in the goals will be a big key. Robots able to go up the side of the ramp will have an advantage. Many teams during the scrimmage seemed to go up the stairs and maneuver around the stationary goal. Hopefully we'll see a lot of good teams at Nationals. I have a feeling that the winning alliance at Nationals and Regionals will have 2 robots that can cap/hang, and 1 that will be be able to herd balls. Because as everyone knows, in the finals, stategies tend to change. Things that seemed minuscule during regular competion seem to be prized possessions in the finals. P.S. Becca- whether you like it or not, you will see me at Regionals and Nationals, so get used to me. Just a shame you can't even be civil with me. Mike's thoughts on the issues, treat them well :D |
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Herding
There may be 1 cherry picker or ball drop collector robot at a regional that can quickly and effectively (think 121 in 2002) get the ball to the human player. Most robots will fail at cherry picking... Kinda like stacking last year. The most effective herders will be ones with large collapsable wings and a fast drive - the balls are everywhere and you don't have to fight for them. The 10 pt ball, past autonomous, will be utterly useless. It will be a waste of time to try to collect them when there are almost 40+ purple balls on the field. Multiplier Ball Again, one robot at a regional may be effective at this. Other times, robots will find problems with their center of gravity and having enough time to manipulate the ball before an opponent pushes them. A robot that can do this will not do exceedingly well in qualifying but will be crucial in the finals. Hanging Hangers who can do it from the side are going to have an easier time hanging. Any mechanism which takes more than 15 seconds to hang from start to off the ground will be fairly ineffective in the finals. Speed is everything - if you can jump up there (the defender will have a fairly tough time maneuvering on the small hdpe platform) and shoot up the mechanism quick, you can do this in the last 20 sec (or less) of the game, just like the battle for the hill last year. KotH is a waste of time... why not just spend more time herding balls? 10 balls = 50 pts = 1 hanging robot etc Autonomous is very important. The extra 30 seconds between end of autonomous and when the ball release triggers if the bonus ball isn't knocked off could let someone like me herd 4-6 balls. Add the 6 balls in the alliance to start and that can be 12 balls in the mobile goal for 60 pts! Miss two and you've still got 50! Human players will be EXTREMELY important this year. They can easily be worth more than hanging and deserve great respect if they do their job well. That's why that 1 capper in the finals will be awesome. I also think that during the finals, the lowest scores will appear. Also, teams that used the 12" kit wheels will find it incredibly hard to make it to the platform if someone's already there. I imagine some amusing flips to happen this year. Tank treads like ones on Tribotec will be most effective. Actually, one more thing. The Canadian SUPER Regional will be awesome. |
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Meanwhile, we on 177 understand that YOU are building a bobcat 2001 arm! :ahh: can't wait to see it! |
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"WE WILL HAVE A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF FUN!"
-IndyStef NO ONE can deny that playing a tweaked version of basketball and 'hanging' robots is some serious fun. Anyway, my predictions: #1. Those who hang will be victorious over those who are grounded. #2. 2x multiplier strategy will not beat hanging. However, it is good to have a system ready for a goal with 10 balls in it. (100 pts.) #3. Balls will be everywhere. In AND outside the field. #4. MANY robots will tip over on the steps to the bar. #5. Alliances will just park their robots in front of the corral. #6. There will be a huge Magic: The Gathering tourney after each regional and nationals. :-) |
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~Lots of people will get in trouble for flipping other robots i.e. Someone's coming onto the platform you're on and you run into them in a ratehr nasty fashion...penalty flag for you.
~The controllers and drivers of robots with arms are going to have to work extremely well together. ~Having a quick math human player is goign to be almost as important as making sure that person can hit 95% of their shots. ~At least one team will get a penalty flag or DQ for throwing balls at an opposing robot. ~In the finals all of your multplier balls, small balls, and hanging space are belong to us. |
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