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Political Probabilities
Suppose that the war in Iraq was a multiple choice test (1 of 4) that George had failed with 50% correct. Now suppose that John also took the test and answered not just one, or a few, but every question differently than did George. The test was extremely hard, so both boys were guessing.
Q: What was the probable score for John? A: 16.67% Q: What, instead of 50%, would George's score had to have been for John to have done as well or better? {HINT: Law of Large Numbers} A: Q: Assuming Bush has done a half-assed job on Iraq, what could we expect from Kerry? A: |
Re: Political Probabilities
Jack,
Assuming your second question was not entirely rhetorical... :) Normally, if both boys were guessing, one would expect them both to score 25%. So if George scored 50%, I would wonder if he really was guessing. But setting aside disbelief,... If George scored 0%, John would be expected to get 33%, since George would have eliminated one of the three wrong answers on each question. (But now I'm wondering how John would know which answers George gave. Methinks he peeked!) Now, for each percent George gets right, that's 1% of the 33% that John could not get right. John's score, then can be calculated as 33% of 100% minus George's score. So if you want the score (S) where both will score the same, solve: Code:
S = 0.33*(1-S)I assume your third question WAS intended to be rhetorical, but I'm going to respond with a couple of points anyway:
BTW: I actually tend to agree with your apparent opinion on the two current candidates, I just had to point out some logical flaws in your "argument". |
Re: Political Probabilities
Greg,
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But seriously, where did you take that 16.67% from? And such things as this cannot be made so simple. And who says John will guess, John most definitely knows the mistakes that George has made and will thus perform better than George. So lets say that George got 25% on this test. John will then get at least 25% because he knows the mistakes that George made. |
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*****I AM NOT TRYING TO TURN THIS INTO A POLITICAL DEBATE, I AM SIMPLY STATING MY OWN OPINION. I WOULD LIKE TO APOLOGIZE IN ADVANCE TO ANYONE WHO FINDS IT OFFENSIVE.***** Would that include going into Iraq in the first place? If it did, then I personally would give Kerry 100% on the test and an A for the rest of the term. |
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What a shame.. :( People need to chill... |
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1/3 * ½ = 1/6 = 16.67% Of course you realize the test was rigged for sake of argument – to make a point. Quote:
(Note: The index finger move should not be confused with the clasping of hands, nor the snappy salute, nor the folding of arms across chest, which are meant to convey piety, bravado, and compassion. Oh, the crossing of arms is Teresa’s move – never mind that one.) Quote:
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Re: Political Probabilities
Can someone please explain what this hypothetical test is? What were the supposed questions/tasks?
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Horray for ~4:15am posts! |
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France and Germany were upset that we didn’t let weapons inspectors do their job, and that we unilaterally decided to invade a sovereign nation and overthrow its government. If they see that the American public now rejects that kind of action by removing that leader and his advisors, then, if we put forth an honest effort to include them (France/Germany/etc.) on decision making and peacekeeping control, they would have no reason not to aid us. An apology and a humble foreign policy (with regard to our allies) are needed, and George Bush has proven himself incapable of both. Why would anyone want to help us if we, as American citizens speaking in our once every 2 years voice, continue to support a President and a Congress that has continually insulted and belittled powerful foreign nations who have the ability to assist us. The only chance we have to recruit foreign ground troops and monetary support is to change our own leadership so that it is less toxic to our international relations. |
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Don’t ya just love statistics. We can spin them any way we want. Let’s compare the State of California with Iraq. The two are about the same area. Iraq has 5/7 the population of California. Although many of the American deaths in Iraq were accidental, or an act of war, let’s label all 1,040+ murders. The murder rate in California is 6.8/100,000, which means that, in the same time period, there were 3,610. Adjusting for population we see that an American was about 2.5 times more likely to be murdered in California than in Iraq. If it’s not the human cost, then it must be the $225 billion that should dissuade us? Well, according to extrapolated census statistics, federal funds and grants expended in California during the same period have exceeded $300 trillion – that’s over a thousand times the amount spent on the liberation of Iraq! Maybe we should get the hell out of California and leave a sovereign and secure nation in our wake. Ok (removing tongue from cheek) this is not about numbers, nor our buddies the French; and it’s for damned sure not about Vietnam. This is about the fact that we were attacked and will be again. How many times and how vicious they are will depend on how long we allow tyrants the freedom to oppress the third world. More precisely, on how long we allow it to remain a third world. The reason Bush is unapologetic is that the coalition of the unwilling do not deserve one. It is they who aid and comfort the enemies of freedom; it is they who want profit from absentee colonialism; it is from them that the third world should demand an apology. If, instead of bringing down every last rogue state and offering the chance for prosperity, we revert to chasing boogiemen into hiding, with the occasional capture and subsequent release when the unwilling buckle again to the boogiemen’s clones, then the third world will continue to export its pain. |
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