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are we alone in the universe?
I wasnt sure if I should post this here or in the Nasa folder. I think it deals more with science in general so I posted it here.
This is a subject I have been thinking about for a couple years. For several decades now scientists and the general public have assumed there must be hundreds or even thousands of advanced civilizations in our galaxy and many more planets with simpler life forms but the thinking is starting to swing the other way, for many reasons. I put all my thoughts on a web-page that Im hosting, rather than paste it all here ill post the link instead. I think this is something that will eventaully change humanitys way of thinking - about ourselves and our purpose in the biggest sense. http://www.us-spark.com -Ken |
Re: are we alone in the universe?
Very interesting read. Thanks.
I have a question about one thing. You say that if life on earth dies (and assuming it is the only life in the universe) then the universe will "burn out" before the "blender" can recombine all the atoms into DNA again, therfore there will be no more life. My question is which is longer, the time between the "big bang" and now or the time between now and the "heat death" or burn out? Because if the time between now and the "heat death" burnout is more than the time between the "big bang" and now, then how did all the atoms have enough time to correctly combine to make life in the first place if they wouldn't have time to reorganize before the burnout? Also, while you probably are correct in saying there wouldn't be enough time to try all the combinations of atoms, it does only take once to get it right. It wouldn't necessarily be the last possible combination that it works out right. You might get it on the firs try. Just like, to absolutely win the lotto it would cost more to buy all the tickets than what you would win, but all it takes to win is that one "lucky" ticket which can come at any time without having to buy all the tickets. Does anyone have a clue what I just said? I probably confused the heck out of everyone. Please someone tell me you understand. |
Re: are we alone in the universe?
If I may borrow a line from the movie Contact: if we are the only life in the universe, its an awful waste of space.
And a line from Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy: "Space," it says, "is big. Really big. You just won't believe how vastly hugely mindboggingly big it is. I mean you may think it's a long way down the road to the chemist, but that's just peanuts to space. Listen ..." When you start playing with infinities, I would believe that normal physics and equations go out the window. This is why it is hard to figure out exact science behind black holes. (I spend too much time watching Mega Science on the Science Channel while at my dad's house) I agree with most points made in this article, especially backing everything by the mathematical formulas. However I believe things start getting shaky when questioning how the 1E350 chance of life happening on Earth originally got here. Without turning this into a religious thread doomed to be locked, I also disagree with the thought it was intentionally sent here from another civilization. There could have been many other ways that the building blocks could have found residence here on this planet, and there are many other theories on this. I agree humanity ultimately must attempt to colonize elsewhere. However, I don't think doing it for the sake of doing it will be a popular opinion. In order to spend the energy on trying to journey to another galaxy, there would have to be a strong reason that our own is in danger (or we could make some serious money doing so). Quote:
I applaud this article and thinking, and that you have posted it open to criticism. It was an extremely interesting read and had some ideas I hadn't thought of before. |
Re: are we alone in the universe?
Interesting read, Ken.
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Re: are we alone in the universe?
You are correct, the ingrained belief (almost a religion) that the galaxy is somehow filled with advanced civilations just waiting to make contact with us is slowly waning, despite the best efforts of the Sagan-Drake proponents. Fermi's paradox (The galaxy should have been completely colonized by now and Earth should have been visited many times. So, where are they?) has never been adequately answered by the 'we are not alone crowd'. More recent info makes Fermi look even smarter because of the solar type stars in the Galaxy, our Sun is one of the youngest by far. The implication is that civilizations as we know it, evolving on solar-type stars, should on average be way ahead of us technologically. So -- where are they?
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Re: are we alone in the universe?
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Probability tells us how likely something is to occur. While its true that is is possible to win the lottery the first time you play, and then to win it again the second time you play, its not very likely and the question is, what course does humanity take, based on the scientific evidence, based on what we know. I could have taken all my college tuition money and spent it on lottery tickets instead of becoming an engineer, and I might have made a million dollars that way, but I would have no control over that outcome. By getting my BSEE degree, and working as an engineer for the last 21 years, I have earned $1.2M dollars so far. I have played the lottery from time to time over those 20 years, and I think maybe Ive won $40 total probability tells us what we should do to have the best chance of success. If something has 1E3 possible combinations then you have to have 1000 random trials on average to get the desired outcome to happen once. If you have 100,000 trials, then it really does average out that you will see your desired outcome around 100 times. If not, then the thing you are predicting is not really random. So, how long till heat death? on average we would have to get another 1E250 seconds before we can reasonably expect to see life happen again spontainiously, and that is assuming every single atom in the universe is recombining once every second in a place where life COULD exist if it happened to assemble by chance. In my equation I used every single atom in the universe, including the atoms that are in the stars, and the cores of all planets, and drifting through space. Obviously if any of those atoms assembled into a single cell lifeform by random chance, it could not survive or reproduce. On the comments about the universe being infinite, its not. Everything we are able to observe says the entire universe began at one point, and spread out from there, around 16 billion years ago. If something started from a single point, with a fixed amount of mass and energy, then it cannot 'become infinite' no matter how long you wait. If there are other 'universes' (Im mangling the word here) that are so far away that we cant detect them, then for all practical purposes they dont exist, because we will never have a means of interacting with them. The universe is expanding at a rate that will keep it from collasping back in on itself. This has been confirmed by recent observations. In fact, the universe is expanding at an accelerating rate, something we are at a total loss to explain, without involking things like anti-gravity particles (something we have never observed). Someone has calculated that one civilization able to travel from star to star at sublight speeds would be able to expand out and colonize our entire galaxy, and it would only take them 2 million years. As another has pointed out in this thread, since the universe is 16 billion years ago, 2 million years is a very small fraction. If anyone is out there, they should have colonized the entire galaxy by now, they should have been here many times over. bottom line is, as far as we are able to observe, and from what we know about the size of the universe and the complexity required for life to establish itself: we are (most likely) entirely alone. Quote:
I cant see our culture launching any nationalized efforts towards this goal in my lifetime, but I can see our species stepping up to the plate in a hundred years or so, and begin an organized effort. In the meantime, I think the most we can hope for is individuals seeing the reality of this, and slowly it will begin to change the way we see ourselves, our relationship with with the other lifeforms on this planet, and our purpose in the universe. |
Re: are we alone in the universe?
i pose it as this. the chance for life as we know it to exist can be broken down like this (note these are estimates off the top of my head that I'm using to prove a point). the chances of a planet being in the right proximity and stable orbit of a star, made of a solid composition, able to support a stable atmosphere, and posses the necessary resources to sustain any life is like 1 to 1,000,000,000 (probably much more) and that does not even guaranty the existence of life. as i understand what the current popular theory it was a set of pure accidents in chemical composition of materials on earth as well as atmospheric shifts. also taking into account that any number of things (meteors, collapsing stars, change in orbit, reactions in the atmosphere, if ANYTHING and i mean ANYTHING becomes unstable) can end all life that cannot immediately adapt to it. and yet despite all these odds i pose to you that the universe as i come to understand it is infinite (or at least REALLY (i feel that it truly deserves a capitol really) big and im talking of space not matter and we also assume theres only one big bang) and so there are probably an uncountable number of worlds with life. and that is just our definition of what life is. do i think life exist? undoubtedly. do i ever think we will find it? almost certainly not. even if we could travel the distances of space instantly we might never come across life or find it and not recognize it for what it is. ooh deep stuff. :)
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Re: are we alone in the universe?
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but I do want to comment, in science and engineering infinity is not a real number. you will never end up with an equation or measure a parameter or characteristic in the real world where one of the numbers is infinity. there are websites that explain how scientists calculated the number of atoms in the universe. the number is big, but its not infinity. just as you can sit on a beach and count the grains of sand in a cubic centimeter of the waterline, and then calculate how many grains of sand there are on that whole beach, it is also possible to calculate how many atoms there are in the universe. and space itself is not infinite. I know this sounds like nonsense, but empty space and time itself did not exists before the big bang, and empty space did not immediately spring into existance everywhere at the big bang. Empty space and time do not exist outside the boundary of the expanding universe. Its almost impossible to comprehend that, but this is what modern physics tells us. |
Re: are we alone in the universe?
first of all that assumes that mathmatics can be applied to the universe, second how do we know that their arent multiple expanding universes, and third after reading a little on quantum theory as i understand it there is no such thing as space or time on the quantum level.
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Re: are we alone in the universe?
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Also, we talk about how the universe started about 16 billion years ago. It is so funny to talk about things like the universe (which is far as we know is EVERYTHING that exists) in terms of time units from Earth. I wish scientists would develop some sort of univeral time unit for all throughout space, but I have no idea how that would work. Especially when you get into time warpage and stuff like that. Last, does anyone believe that sending life to other planets could be potentially damaging to our own in the long long run? I don't think you'd want to start life on nearby planets. I'm thinking War of the Worlds but like for reals. What if in 5 billion years they come to attack us (given that we are still here) and destroy us? I think if we plant life in the universe then we should send it really far away. Also, I think we should be able to monitor it, but not leave and evidence as to where it came from. I'm thinking that one day if two intelligent life forms from different planets interacted, it would have very violent results. For starting life elsewhere, I had once heard something about how the ice caps on Mars could be melted to produce C02 which would warm the planet to make it much more suitable for life. They said something if the technology was available to do it on that large of a scale, it would only take about 20 years to complete. I forget exactly how they thought it could be done though. |
Re: are we alone in the universe?
there is a really good book that talks about the whole ideology of intergalactic war and expansion and it has a lot of firmly rooted ideas its called Jentry's Envy
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Re: are we alone in the universe?
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there could be more galaxies and things out there that we cant see, but everything that we can see (and we can see unbeliveably far) has all the characteristics of expanding out from one original big bang |
Re: are we alone in the universe?
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I dont want to delve into a discussion on how its possible that this expansion is accelerating - physicists dont have a good answer, and neither do I. It is an interesting subject, and theres lots of information out there. Regarding the dangers of interstellar exploration and colonization, I had considered this as a possible reason why we might have come here from another star system, and decided to erase the tracks as it were. If our species had a violent history on our previous planet, we might have decided to break the link between the colonies - to keep one from turning against the other but I tend to think if we are able to pull together as a species to organize something as complex as interstellar travel and colonization, that we would also be able to learn to live with each other, here and everywhere else we travel. And then there is always the chance that we will send a probe or starship to another system and discover it is already inhabited, that they dont appreciate the intrusion, and they are able to trace the trajectory of the vessel back to its origin and come after us. It is possible, but the whole point of my message is that, based on what science is telling us, its very unlikely that any lifeforms are out there at all. |
Re: are we alone in the universe?
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EDIT: Also, I just wanted to comment that it seems there is a large amount of people thinking that if there is other intelligent life out there that is looks like us. Due to different conditions even such as different amounts of gravity, it could look totally different. People think intelligent life in the universe would be a lot like humans which probably most likely it would not be. It would be just like thinking everyone in the world speaks English, which most certainly isn't the case. If intelligent life it found, it will probably be so mind boggling strange that we can't comprehend it. Finally, I believe that possibly by the end of my lifetime scientists will be able to create life from non-living matter. It is simply a problem of making the most complex (metaphorical) photocopier ever. |
Re: are we alone in the universe?
i think we were created by the mice! :D okay on a more serious note what happens if we DO come across life and either A) dont recognize it for what it is. or B) the lifeform is so alien from us that we have no point of reference. (yes i know catagory A automatically fits into catagory B)
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