Is Car Nack Right?
 

Car Nack has made a prediction concerning autonomous and winning.

Do you think he is right?

Re: Is Car Nack Right?
 

http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...ad.php?t=41592

?

Re: Is Car Nack Right?
 

Has anyone ever checked Car Nack?
Especially on these:
http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...ad.php?t=34897
http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...ad.php?t=37302

And as Dr. Joe pointed out, was he right with this one?
http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...ad.php?t=31439

Re: Is Car Nack Right?
 

..Ive never heard of this guy.I think hes All WET.

Re: Is Car Nack Right?
 

Rumor has it that if Car Nack is all wet, so are the 4 National Championship medalians he is wearing around his neck.

Joe J.

Re: Is Car Nack Right?
 

According to Car Nack we had a 2 vs 2 game last year. ;)

I'd say yes for the elim matches at regionals and qualifying at champs.

Re: Is Car Nack Right?
 

Heh. The autonomous results are not an independent variable in determining the winner of the match. Car Nack's prediction is much like saying that "the team leading the Rose Bowl at half-time wins the game 80% of the time." It's true, but not terribly profound, since, in this case, winning in autonomous is a sign that the leading alliance has already scored more goals, and has robots good enough to score. Given the advantage that the order of defensive and offensive periods gives the autonomous winner, the deck is more stacked.

So Car Nack is right in this case, but I'd give him more points if it weren't such an obvious prediction.

Would Car Nack like to prognosticate about the likelihood of '07's game being the long-awaited aquatics challenge?

Re: Is Car Nack Right?
 

While I think that 80% may be a little bit high overall. I think that the advantage afforded to the alliance winning the autonomous round will be enough to win most matches.

Therefore, I'll vote yes in the Qualifying rounds during regionals.

During the elimination rounds, the defense will be a bit stiffer than last year.

Re: Is Car Nack Right?
 

While winning auto proves the ability to score AND gives a 10 point bonus, I think 80% is just a bit high. I vote yes for Championship qualifying matches only, as most teams will have had at least one prior competition under their belt to hone their skills, and I agree with others that the defense in elim matches will be tougher and keep that number down a bit.

My question is ... who is going to keep track of this statistic ?? :ahh:

BTW ... good poll/thread Dr. Joe.

Re: Is Car Nack Right?
 

I just don't know if I believe it. What you are saying is that 4 out 5 times, what happens in 10 seconds predicts the total match outcome.

If so, not since Stack Attack has the first 10 seconds of the match been so important. It is astounding to me that this comment can be obvious to Bill Beatty and others but escape me entirely.

Joe J.

Re: Is Car Nack Right?
 

My opinion of this game is that it will be won by teams scoring in the center goal. Scoring in the center goal will rely on the ability of the robot to detect the lighted target above the goal and aim the ball shooting mechanism accordingly. I don't think this is a game where a good driver can simply aim at the goal and score (without wasting many balls). This year the robot will rely on its control system to aim the ball shooting mechanism during any offensive play. Basically, if a robot can not score on the center goal during autonomous it's more likely that the robot can not score in the center goal during the rest of a match.

Re: Is Car Nack Right?
 

car nack is right, but i'm not going to say why. I'd even go as far as to say that the alliance that wins autonomous mode will win the match even more than 80% of the time. i'm not going to get into my theories behind this, though, since they're reserved for the team i'm mentoring. maybe a few weeks into build i'll share them, but not now :]

Re: Is Car Nack Right?
 

Hey i'm with Joe and car nack i believe whoever wins autonomous 80% of the time will make a big difference not typically win but will make the winner of autonomous the favored to win most of the time.

Re: Is Car Nack Right?
 

I believe that Carnack is pretty close on this one. The only monkey wrench in the mix is there is still two other robots on that alliance that must perform well for the next two minutes. (Assuming that one robot outshot everyone else.)
It would seem that gaining the advantage for the first 40 seconds will be huge.

Re: Is Car Nack Right?
 

I think that Car Nack is right, and I think that it takes a pretty good imagination with how the game will play out to understand why. I won't pretend to share this vision to the same extent that Car Nack does, but if I only understand half of it, I'll agree with his predicition.

So whoever wins autonomous has an extra 10 points. This is... moderately influential, but not too swinging.

What is terribly important is the order. If you lose autonomous, you're on offense first. Here's the problem: What exactly do you plan on shooting?

Each team will presumably start with all 10 balls in their robot. If you lose autonomous, you're heading down to the side of the field where there are most likely more balls strewn about because the losing machines were inaccurate. 5 machines are on that side trying to pick up those balls, so likely the offense will get only 60% of what was missed. Keep in mind, they're using this time to refill as opposed to score points shooting. Even if the defense doesn't play any defense and just picks up balls, or sits and gets refilled through a top loading mechanism under the human player station, they are NOT wasting time gathering the playing field balls during their 40 seconds of offense in the second round.

Second round, the team that wins auto now has picked up some balls, and ideally their back bot is full to the brim. These three machines do not need to spend any time loading their machines. I'm going to venture to say they have 15 or 20 more seconds of offense than the team that lost autonomous.

The last 40 seconds, the team that lost auto now needs to move to the other side of the field to score, while the team that won does not.

I'll be bolder than Car Nack:
Assuming equal caliber machines, I think the team that wins autonomous wins 100% of the time, and this would happen even without the 10 point bonus.

And to futher this point, I believe that if you're shooting the balls well this year, it's done with significant software control. If you win the autonomous mode, you likely have better aiming functions, and I think those machines, will be of a higher caliber. The most accurate shooting with descent strategy will win this game.

Matt

Re: Is Car Nack Right?
 

Great post, I agree with all of your ideas. :D

The 11 point advantage really isn't much compared to the greater control you'll have over the number of balls available for scoring in each round, not to mention the advantage, as you pointed out, not to have to cross the field to score.

The greater advantage, in my opinion, is that, if you get to the last round with a decent score, you can defend with three robots, something that I believe will be very hard to deal with AND, most importantly, you will have all your three robots close to your platform, for an easy 25 points, while your opponents will have to cross the field (once again).

Re: Is Car Nack Right?
 

just remember guys car nack only said something about autonomous i would personally like to see a tie everytime to make it more interesting but the chance of that happening is very low percentage.

Re: Is Car Nack Right?
 

Matt,

How is the back bot full to the brim? How many balls are going to be on the offensive side after you just WON auton? Are the human players from the other team going to fill your bot up? The back bot will hardly ever be full to the brim unless it didn't dump it's load in auton.

However, I agree with you on the other points. One you didn't mention is the fact that playing defense first allows you to have 80 seconds of continuous offense and know what score you have to beat (think college football overtime). Your number of transitions (think basketball) is reduced so you spend less time traveling and more time scoring.

-Paul

Re: Is Car Nack Right?
 

1. The back bot will have time to pick up any of the missed balls on the other half of the field.

2. When the team that loses auto is scoring, the (winning teams') human players will be gathering these balls and be throwing the balls to the other side of the field to be picked up by the back bot.

I guess it depends on how you think the HP's will feed balls to their machines.

Matt

Re: Is Car Nack Right?
 

Every year, the day after kick-off, team 116 plays "Stu-bot" and the students (and mentors) act out the game as though they are the robots. The teams change constantly so that everyone can get a chance to participate. Half-way through the day I noticed that almost every single round was won by the alliance that ruled in autonomous. So I tend to agree with Car Nack, however, I also think there will be teams smart enough out there to come up with a strategy for doing well if they lose the autonomous round, and three teams like that on an alliance will be formidable.

Heidi

Re: Is Car Nack Right?
 

It is going to come down to the "gather and hoard" method vs. the "go home and raid the refrigerator" method. I think an alliance that can do both (note I said an alliance, not team).

Re: Is Car Nack Right?
 

Trust me, he's right on this topic
As heidi mentioned, after the first two stu-bot matches (which were complete chaos and a few students, who had apparently not read the rules carefully enough, had shot some balls during either the wrong period or to the wrong goal), the team that lost autonomous only won once.

Re: Is Car Nack Right?
 

First of all... a prediction like this is almost self-fulfilling... A robot alliance that wins autonomous has at least one very experienced team that can handle a variety of tasks that are necessary to win.. so a good team ALSO does well during the rest of the match. Winning autonomous would be a fairly good indicator of the quality of the alliance. (Or at least one member of the alliance...)

The question should really be :

Does winning the autonomous period give the alliance enough of an advantage that it tips the scales of the match.

Let's look at what you get for winning:

1. 10 points
2. first defense

Of these two advantages, the second is much more strategic. Your alliance begins play close to their home base and if the bot can be reloaded, close to a reloading situation. This is negated somewhat by having only two robots who have to try and defend against three. However, defense of the lower goals can be accomplished WHILE the robot is in a position to be loaded.
The BackBOT... could be loaded by human players tossing balls down into the offensive end of the field...if that bot can collect balls...

This advantage of the possibility of being loaded to start the offensive 40 seconds can be strategic in that when they go on offense, this team can then score immediately..

HOWEVER... (is this complicated enough yet?) At the END of the 2nd 40 second period the winning autonomous team is at a disadvantage because they will have just used up their ammunition and then go into the last 40 second scoring period needing balls that will require a trip down and back if they are human loaded...

I have looked at this from many angles and I just do not see much advantage in winning the autonomous... perhaps a little bit... and the 10 points could certainly decide a match in which the score was tight.

In my humble opinion... the ability to move about the field quickly and decisively controlling the loose balls and the ability to have all robots on the ramp at the end will decide the match...

This game, perhaps more than any other we have participated in]... requires teamwork. The drive teams/human players behind the glass need to know what to do with the balls that come through... and they MUST work together to use the capabilities of their alliance. I would imagine that NOT putting balls into play will be just as important as getting them back on the field..

Enough said... just one person's opinion...

The one thing that is for certain is that it will be alot of fun!! and the crowd is going to really like this game...

good luck everyone!!!

Re: Is Car Nack Right?
 

Counter: Hold the balls through your 40 sec scoring period and score during the final period preventing your oppenent from having a chance to get the balls back. You will a) know their score, and b) know what you need to beat them.

This allows you to put your alliances robots in the right place to get on the ramp, score balls, prevent them from getting on the ramp or scoring balls.

Folks Bill is saying this a highly defensive game and winning in auton gives you the advantage of knowing what to do for the last 80 secs of the match much sooner than your opponent and keep them trying to catch up from behind.

Re: Is Car Nack Right?
 

... so how come I've never been invited ... :D