Week 2 Regionals: Veterans Still Have No Advantage
 

Last week I took a look at the results of the first weekend regionals (this thread), and concluded that veteran teams had no advantage when it came to winning qualifying matches.

Discussion followed, including some interesting statisics from last year that showed veterans did tend to score more points than rookies, and also surrounding the many benefits that come with experience other than just the ability to win matches. There was also the oft-repeated note that winning qualifying matches is not necessarily related to being selected for the finals or for doing well in the finals.

The match scheduling system was also discussed, as it pretty much ensured last week that for every match a veteran team won, a veteran team also lost a match.

So, presuming that the match scheduling system bias would be fixed this week, I promised to take look at this week's data.

A correlation of team number to ranking actually results in a value of -.026, which -- if it were large enough to be significant, which I'm not arguing it is -- would actually suggest newer teams ranked higher than veterans.

This is supported by the fact that the 61 teams numbered less than 300 had an average seed of 22.3 while the 76 teams numbered greater than 2000 had an average seed of 21.4.

This flies in the face of the common assumption that low-numbered veteran teams are more likely to win matches. It sure doesn't seem to be happening this year.

Jason

Re: Week 2 Regionals: Veterans Still Have No Advantage
 

Then Kodos are in order for the Game Design Committee, for developing a 'level' game. There is little more frustrating to a rookie or 2nd year team than t simply get trounced in competition.

Sure, it's not about the robot (and never was), but veteran teams with their far greater resources (at least, they are perceived that way) seemed to have an unfair advantage. Not this year - so far.

Don

Re: Week 2 Regionals: Veterans Still Have No Advantage
 

Note, there have been a healthy share of rookies that have won--note WI, VA, MO, among others.

But, even if a rookie or second-year team has a pretty good robot, they are constantly beat when it comes to strategy and simply operating in this kind of game. The ones that are doing well have been around since either FIRST Frenzy: Raising the Bar or Triple play.

It's basically a control style and being able to coordinate and experience.

Re: Week 2 Regionals: Veterans Still Have No Advantage
 

I would have to disagree. Veteran team still have an advantage in the game, it's just been equalized in the qualification rounds.

Unfortunately, there's no way to really eliminate the advantage that veteran teams have over rookies. Even if you make the game so different that the only things in common between each year's robot are the fact that they're robots, veteran teams will still have an advantage. They know all the right people, know the places to shop, and the students have more skills.

Is this a problem? I don't think so. It just means FIRST is accomplishing something. If the rookie teams were just as good as veteran teams, it would mean that FIRST hadn't taught the kids and teachers anything.

On a side note, it'd be really cool if they made the KOP and robot rules drastically different each year. Imagine if next year your robots were gas or glow fuel powered and played in a grass field or sand pit or mud pile. And then the year after that, we'd be playing with ultra-lightweight blimp robots.

Re: Week 2 Regionals: Veterans Still Have No Advantage
 

Sand in your electronics...

bleh.

Re: Week 2 Regionals: Veterans Still Have No Advantage
 

Electronics are made of sand.

Re: Week 2 Regionals: Veterans Still Have No Advantage
 

Well done.

Seriously though, sand wouldn't be too horrible with the electronics. Just put your electronics in a box with some seals, and you're good. The thing to worry about is those sprockets, bearings, gears...

Re: Week 2 Regionals: Veterans Still Have No Advantage
 

no rookie team was selected for alliance parings at the Florida Regional. and the Great Lakes Regional.

i'll believe this when a rookie team leads a team to a championship

Re: Week 2 Regionals: Veterans Still Have No Advantage
 

Didn't that happen at VCU?

Re: Week 2 Regionals: Veterans Still Have No Advantage
 

VCU was using the old match selection algorithm. While it didn't change how good their robot was, it might've helped them win more matches. I still support the new algorithm - I just wanted to bring it up.

Re: Week 2 Regionals: Veterans Still Have No Advantage
 

Did FIRST actually change the algorithm? They said they did, but we ran into the same problems at FLR. The problem being playing with the same teams over and over and not getting to work with a large majority of the competitors. And yet still having super short turn arounds and uber long turn arounds later.

Re: Week 2 Regionals: Veterans Still Have No Advantage
 

I didn't like the new algorithm they used. At the Pacific Northwest Regional we were against the same team nearly every match. And for the next match, we always were against one of our previous allance members and with one of our previous opponents. They did that every single match.

And with the Rookie thing, at the Pacific Northwest Regional, the rookies rocked. I dont know what the statistics were for how many went into the finals but we took team 1983 (Skunkworks) into the finals with us. They also won the Imagery award.
A rookie team (2122) took top 3rd seed and lost in the semifinals to the team that eventually won.
I wonder how well the rookies did in past competitions...

Re: Week 2 Regionals: Veterans Still Have No Advantage
 

Unfortunately, I think this lack of advantage for veteran teams is due to the dumbing down of the game.I believe that only having one tube at a time, made this game fairly simple from a design stand point.I think that in the attempt to keep rookie teams form being killed by veteran teams First in eliminating a lot of the creative designs and strategy. The first years I was in first ,It was three teams and you finished first ,second or third. Sure, we got killed by some veteran team , but we also won. ( you can learn a lot by finishing second or third)When the real quality of your robot is being hidden by alliances and rule that frankly limit teams to build very similar robots. It is very difficult to determine a advantage one way or another. These limit have now spread to the pits.(update 16).A veteran team knows what tools to bring to fix a robot quickly and safely. I am VERY sorry if this seems like a rant. I have been participating in First for ten year and know how it can impact students future. I understand change comes with time. I just hope First will strive for excellence and not average.

jim schaddeleee

Re: Week 2 Regionals: Veterans Still Have No Advantage
 

I do understand your concern, but in my opionion, they are doing a fine job, I mean sure its been "dumbed down" a bit as you have said, but it isn't a huge step down, I believe, like was said before, that they are trying to even the playing fields for rookies, this way more people get involved and stay involved, instead of getting owned by vetrean teams and leaving because of that very same reason.

Re: Week 2 Regionals: Veterans Still Have No Advantage
 

I don't think this game is 'dumbed down', as you say, and especially not because we're only allowed to handle one tube. This year's game provides quite a few different choices in effective arm and grabber design. You can use an articulated arm, a 4-bar linkage, a sliding elevator, a telescoping arm, and anything else your team can come up with. Grabber designs include pinch-type grabbers, curved pincers, two spatulas, wheel type, and grabbers that deal with the inside of the tube. Optimization and automation can be done with sensors and programming. In terms of ramps, I have seen many clever designs, including lifter types where the lifting robot does the work, cable driven ramp extensions, ramps where a robot driving up will extend the ramp, and so many others.

The focus this year is on tube handling and lifter design, rather than storing game pieces.

Re: Week 2 Regionals: Veterans Still Have No Advantage
 

I dont know if anybody watched but the lower four alliances at wisconsin were led by rookies and a combined total of 10 rookies made eliminations. The winning alliance was also led by a rookie.

Re: Week 2 Regionals: Veterans Still Have No Advantage
 

Alright I finally got around to investigating a hunch I have. The results we are seeing, the fact that team number has little to do with record has nothing to do with the game or how good the new teams are.

In each match with the exception of the last one or two in each round (ie when all except 6-12 teams have played the same number of matches) the sum of the team numbers on the red alliance is very close to the sum of the team numbers on the blue side. I am writing a program now to gather data from all of the regionals but from the three I have looked at it seems that in order for one alliance to win they must give losses to three teams with simmilar numbers. This Prevents any group of numbers from getting significantly more wins than any other. It seems that any data you have collected relating win percent (or seeding) to how well these groups are doing is invalid.

There really isn't any merit to any of the claims in this thread.

Re: Week 2 Regionals: Veterans Still Have No Advantage
 

I agree ,You have given great example of how to do the task.(lift a tube),what I am trying to say is that
why limit someone creativity. How cool would it be if a team score a entire row in autonomous or the rules allowed for more than placing a tube, drop a ramp or climb a ramp. Just a quick example. I think it was 2002 the game had 3 large goals on casters .These goal were multipliers .Team 71 designed a robot that dropped down ,grabbed the three goals in seconds then walked them into the scoring position.
That was truly INSPIRING .First is about inspiration. If a team uses a 4link or sliding elevator is that inspiring?

Your Friend
Jim

Re: Week 2 Regionals: Veterans Still Have No Advantage
 

Great job by those rookies but after looking at the entry list almost half of the teams were rookies.

Re: Week 2 Regionals: Veterans Still Have No Advantage
 

The same thing could be argued for any rule. Isn't a weight limit stifling creativity? I could build a really awesome robot if I didn't have to worry as much about weight.
Rules don't limit creativity, they channel it in different directions. In this game, the rules reward a creatively and effectively designed mechanism, rather than a creative way around the way most people play.
Only holding one ringer is part of the game, like not using your hands in soccer, and not traveling in basketball.
I would be inspired if a team can manage to score all of their team's ringers in one match.
This year, awe-inspiring moments like that will most likely come from the drivers and coaches. That's not to say robots can't be inspiring. I'm impressed by the lifter robots that can manage to lift 2 robots, and also by the really effective scoring robots.

Re: Week 2 Regionals: Veterans Still Have No Advantage
 

when i said they didn't get selected for alliance parings i ment

"team so and so, who would u like to invite to join your alliance"

in outher words, no rookies in the elimination matches at GLR or UCF

Re: Week 2 Regionals: Veterans Still Have No Advantage
 

I don't like it very much...

At Pittsburgh, we ended up with a rookie team as first seed... They were an awesome team, and a VERY awesome alliance captain and we couldn't have asked for more. That being said... The were a drivable base that hadn't run in some of their matches. They were undefeated in qualifying.

When you get this happening, the First alliance is automatically handicapped against. The first seed rookie chooses whatever bot is in their best interest for the first alliance selection (at Pittsburgh, that team was us), but when you get around to choosing again, quite a few of the top scoring or ramp bots are gone. This left us with two exceptional defense bots and one exceptional hybrid. This is different than having a team earn their way up by being an exceptional scorer.

Any rookie team (no matter how AWESOME they are) that doesn't earn their way to the very top of the regional is not being given a gift. They are being handicapped against. This leaves the first alliance in a very tight predicament when the other alliances have two or three scorers each, and they have one.

I am not complaining, And I couldn't have asked for the Pittsburgh regional to go any better for us than it did, I am just relaying an unfortunate situation that happened to a rookie that got stuck in the new algorithms.


In my opinion, FIRST should not give precedence to rookie teams. It shouldn't be about team number, it should be about the ability of the robot.

Re: Week 2 Regionals: Veterans Still Have No Advantage
 

True enough. I was just using the word used before me instead of making up my own I suppose. I am completely fine with the game as it is right now, and I like the fact you can focus on very very specific parts of your design now because you don't need a complicatied robot to be able to do everything. I am still impressed with what they can come up with

Re: Week 2 Regionals: Veterans Still Have No Advantage
 

I will be inspired with you ,IF or when this happen. Thanks for the intelligent debate. You seem like a very thoughtful young person. That is what is inspiring .Good luck to you and your team.

jim

Re: Week 2 Regionals: Veterans Still Have No Advantage
 

I agree with you Cody. I think that the way the matches were set up at Pittsburgh was definitely a disadvantage for many of the veterans. When a team like 1038 isn't even in the top 8 it really shows that some of the better teams are having some tough luck with the match pairing. I think they may need to work on that match pairing algorithm for next year...too bad I won't be there:(

Re: Week 2 Regionals: Veterans Still Have No Advantage
 

That presumption just ain't so: http://www.grovesrobotics.org/GLR2007matchlist.xls

Re: Week 2 Regionals: Veterans Still Have No Advantage
 

Good teams go with the flow with whatever FIRST throws at them and find a way to win. ex. team 25, 254, etc. Excuses are not made.
In NJ we played either team 341 or 375 in EVERY match because of our team no. 359. Both were good teams!
Strategy to me is what was important in looking at the strengths and weaknesses of your fellow alliance and the opposing alliances in every match, especially the playoffs. That was our focus and I truly believe this is why as a #7 seed in the tough NJ regional, we were able to successfully win against the #2 and #3 seeded teams to get to the finals.
Although the finals didnt go as planned, our strategy still had a chance had we done what we were close to doing, in one of those matches. For team 25, the winning alliance member, to come out and tell us this, made us feel competitive and validation for what we were attempting to do. And most importantly, our discussions with EVERYONE involved all had gracious professionalism in our approaches in how we deal with these challenges.
Adversity should be seen as a challenge and not as an obstacle.:D

Re: Week 2 Regionals: Veterans Still Have No Advantage
 

While I agree with you that having a seeding algorithm that averages team numbers across each alliance prevents any one group of numbers from getting significantly more wins than another, I disagree with your conclusion that this makes the data invalid. In fact, that is the whole point of the data!

Allow me to demonstrate by making two assumptions:

1) A team's performance (robot quality, strategy, resources, etc.) should be at least roughly reflected in their performance in qualifying matches. Note that I'm not saying that this is happening this year, but rather that, in general, your top seeded teams should be relatively better than lower seeded teams.

2) That veteran teams should have some advantages over rookie teams. Not, perhaps, an insurmountable advantage, but one would hope that as teams develop resources and learn more about robotics that they should become better each year. This is pretty much implied, if not explicitly stated by FIRST and is the logic behind the "rookie only" awards at each regional.

Now if one were to take those two assumptions, one could hypothesize that veteran teams should rank higher in qualifying matches than less experienced teams. The fact that this is not happening (at least as far as I can tell) is really rather important.

It suggests that at least one of the two assumptions is flawed. So either teams don't improve with time, or else the qualifying rankings do not adequately reflect the quality of a team and their robot. If we don't get better... why bother? And if the better teams aren't on top (in general...) then why do we give awards like "top rookie seed" and allow only the top eight alliances to pick their partners?

To be clear, I did not mean to suggest that veterans had absolutely no advantages... merely that they demonstrated no statistical advantage in qualifying matches, data that poses a very signficant and valid challenge to the two assumptions listed above.

If FIRST were to implement a scheduling algorithm that ignored team number then we could run a test to see which -- if either -- of the assumptions are invalid. (And probably end up with a much better representation of relative robot quality following the qualifying matches.)

Jason

Just a quick P.S.... If the scheduling algorithm is going to be biased for team number -- or anything other than operational measures such as equal numbers of matches and reasonable breaks between matches -- then that should be stated in the rules at the beginning of the season.

Re: Week 2 Regionals: Veterans Still Have No Advantage
 

Well... I can certainly tell you that the LA regional winners were veterans.

254 and 330 for sure. I know Last year was 4's first season, but they had a large experience base that came with them; I can't them as a veteran team.

But, some high numbered teams had awesome robots.

1717 was the best vertical lifter I have seen. two platforms about 4'x4' that lift in 2 seconds.

1622 was also a very impressive scorer.

Re: Week 2 Regionals: Veterans Still Have No Advantage
 

Taking a look at last year's second week regionals, I calculate that there is a .16 correlation between team number and seeding. This is a noticable difference from this year, where the correlation was -.026.

I did not do any tests to prove whether this is significant or not, however, it is much greater than this year's correlation, and looking at an x-y chart of team number and seed, you can sort of force yourself to start to see a trend. (nothing but the finest statiscal analysis from this guy!)

I suggest this adds weight to the "common sense" hypothesis that veteran teams DO have some advantages... certainly not overwhelming ones... but that experience DOES help, and that something in this year's game (perhaps the scheduling system) is preventing veteran teams from achieving their traditional success in qualifying rounds.

Jason