Chief Delphi - Predictions Week 5: Last Stop Before the Big Show... ...Part 2

The Fun never stops.
I just put in 13 hours at work after a late night of predictions yesterday and now I will put in another 5 or so working on the 2nd half of week 5 Predictions... ...I am not complaining.... ...well yeah, I guess I am so I had better shut up and get on the

PREDICTIONS!!!!

Let's get to it then.

Lone Star

Tons of tipsters on this one. Unlike those sore losers from the Deep South who complain about poor coverage and then offer unethical bribes[4], these folks from Texas know how to get a story in print: send tips to the writer on deadline ;-)

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2158 at Lone Star will win Rookie all star. Call it just a feeling, but I know the founding mentor from that team, and he's got as good a feel about this stuff as anyone. And the video they posted of their scorer was sweet.

Well, I looked at the their website and saw a static picture of The AusTin Cans' robot and well... ...I was going to more or less forget that this tip ever darkened my inbox. But, the tipster is what passes for "usually reliabable" in these parts so, I thought I would search ChiefDelphi.com to see if I could find this "sweet video".

Hokey Smokes! If you haven't seen it, you need to check it out (here). The video doesn't show a robot climbing their ramps (and that is probably a good thing), but their double roller tube gripper gig is CERTIFIABLE GENIUS![5] Their ramps may have to be tossed overboard but their arm & gripper (and the strange seeding match generator FIRST is using this year) will be enough to get them to the picking in TX. These guys are rookies so somebody make sure they have a scouting team working for them. Team #2158 -- mark it down.

Now back to normal meat and potatoes analysis. TX is hard to predict is some ways, it is a biggish regional (53) with about 1/3 having been out already this season. It has 4 teams that have been in the Finals of another regional this year. But it has one of the highest median team number of any regional this weekend save NV & CO. Tough to get a handle on.

But that is why I make the big bucks: To see black and white where others see only shades of gray.

Let me start with a cheeky quote from a tipster that was my favorite before he got so brazened:

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118 vs. 148. Robonauts v. Robowranglers. Both teams were clearly the best scoring teams at their previous regionals, but both got stopped in the finals. Can either pull it out in the clash of the titans here?
Both should now have autonomous (or at least will be attempting it). 118s driver really couldn't handle the machine in Bayou, but he's had a couple weeks to practice since then. He might even, perhaps, bust out the high gear on that "V6" (which they never even touched in New Orleans). 148 would have likely won St. Louis if 217's arm didn't break, but it did, and the Techokitties stopped 148 from busting out any big rows, topping them in 2 matches. 148 was the best, yet for some reason almost un-heralded scorer in Week 1, vanishing behind the success of Raider Robotix in Jersey. 118 drew tons of pre-ship attention with their posts and video about their drive and practice robot. All 148 posted was a pretty plain picture of a 6WD frame with IFI wheels and AM shifters. Will CD continue to ignore this dominant Texas scoring machine?

Okay I like the analysis but DANG! DOG!?#! do you have get all mean and nasty with that "will CD continue to ignore..." business? I was just getting to them, I swear... ...give me a chance to get rolling before you start with the slings and arrows routine...

I would be blind if I didn't see that Teams #148 is going to be a force majeure in TX this weekend. Big Time Mentor Big John V-neun has kept a year of being on the sidelines bottled up inside him and he has unleashed that energy this year to rebuild the FIRST Greenville Franchise. I haven't seen a robot this good out of Team #148 since, well, since the IFI guys were knee-high to a grasshopper and helping out Greenville as a lark while working at Raytheon. Seriously though, these guys can really put up the tubes. They could have (should have?) won St. Louis. I expect they will be #1 seed in their home court. Go Robowranglers!

Speaking of ALMOST winning the big trophies, Teams #118 & #364 are back in action again this week after ALMOST having won the Bayou Regional. If one or both of these teams seed high it will be interesting to see if they let emotions or their scouting teams drive their picks...

I have 5 regionals to cover and only so much time so I am going to just have to list the other teams I think are worth watching in TX. #462 was the first team drafted in LA and took home the Big Blue Banner. They were a big part of the reason #118 & #364 don't have a banner (yet) this year. Look for them to go early in the draft if they don't make the top 8.

Baxter Bombsquad had a pretty good outing in Kansas City but the stars didn't align for them. You can't keep the boys from Mountain Home down for long. They should be Finalist at least in TX.

My heart pick goes to Team #1 --I saw the Juggernauts at the Great Lakes Regional. Frankly they looked better than I have seen them in years. They tell me they have a ramp they are planning on adding for TX. I hope they leave it off and go with the arm they've got. It looked pretty solid to me. Scouts in TX should keep an eye on Juggy. They may be available later than they should be.

Another heart pick is Team #57. They are a Chairman's Award caliber team through and through. And this year they have a pretty fair double ramp bot. They looked great on Sat. morning at the GLR. I hear tell they ran into some reliability issues after lunch but I am betting they have worked out the kinks and will be ready for action in TX.

Las Vega
Forget about slogans, there is NO WAY what happens in Las Vegas is going to stay in Las Vegas.

First the numbers: 51 teams, 28 teams having been to at least 1 regional this year, median team number is very high but I don't see that being much of a factor given the many veterans with tons of experience, 7 Teams have made it to the finals of a previous regional this season. This regional should ROCK.

Let's start it off with a comment or two from the tipsters:

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The story line that jumps out at me is the clash between the two most successful NASA house teams, 254 & 233. Two of the most dominant teams in FIRST history, who have never crossed paths. Also, Steve Kyramarios(sp?) used to be the backbone of the Poofs, now works for NASA KSC, sponsor of Pink.

That ain't the half of it. Pink is drawing in mentors from around the country it seems. Kit Gerhart from The Veteran of Veterans, Technokats, is also a factor in the Pink Pride that is sweeping FIRST. Great Mentors build Great Traditions. Steve and Kit have a lot to be proud of.

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-1902 has been to 4 ever official FIRST events. They have been finalists 3 times, and the #1 seed the other. Can they finally win?

Actually, yes, I think they just might... ...but not this weekend, unless the stars align just so. They'll have a good run after lunch, but I don't think that they'll be the Champs this week.

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39 & 60 paired up and won Arizona. Can either of them pull it off again? Will they pull the 123/247 combo and win two regionals together?

I have a number of cringe moments in my FIRST career, one was turning down Team 60 when they tried to draft Chief Delphi in 2000. I should have known what I know now, Kingman can put up a fight. I am very bullish on both Team #39 and #60. I don't think that they will have the luxury of pairing up again this weekend, but I wouldn't be surprised to see both teams in the finals and one of them walking away with the big trophy.

Here is a fair summary of about 1000's tips I got about the upcoming LV Regional:

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Poofs Poofs Poofs Poofs Poofs!

Yeah, I know, they are going to be in LV this weekend.

AND... ...they are going to win the darn thing! What do you want me to say? It ain't braggin' if you can do it and these guys can do it. I don't care what kind of trash talk the Poofs are having to put up with since losing the San Jose Regional FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER!

Please. Do you think one loss is going to tarnish any of the laurels already sitting on the Cheesy Poofs' heads? If you get over to the Strip sometime before Saturday afternoon, place a bet on the Poofs to WIN. It's Easy Money.

Final note.

What is with all the FL teams heading to LV? It can't be for the sun? What gives?

The answer comes from yet another tipster:

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just wanted to give you a heads-up about the Las Vegas Regional. Five Floridian teams will be competing there this week: 59, 79, 108, 233, and 1902. I cannot speak to 59's 'bot this year, since they chose not to attend the Florida Regional this year, but the other four machines are all quality. 79, 233, and 1902 all have 'bots capable of being top seeds if Lady Luck is even a little kind. Due to the semi-random match algorithm that likes placing young teams with each other, look for 1902 to seed well partly because they're better than your average top 33% team. 108 was one of the most underrated 'bots at FL, which is why 1902 was able to pick them late in the second round of alliance pairings.
<snip>
The FL teams are fiercely competitive on the field and equally loyal off it. When FL teams travel to the same regional, it's not uncommon for them to travel, lodge, and/or socialize together while in town. Look for this off-field chemistry to turn into on-field magic this week. I predict one of the FL teams will be a top seed and draft one of the others first round.

Now that is a great tip. Florida representing in Vegas. Go figure.

Philly
Starting out with the cold hard numbers: 44 teams, 27 with prior experience playing Rack & Roll, 4 of which come to the City of Brotherly Love having been in the finals at their last regional. This regional has one of the LOWEST median team numbers of any regional this season (only Pittsburgh was lower). Drexel will be hosting a lot of experience even if they don't have a lot of marquee names.

But to say they don't have a lot doesn't mean they don't have any. To the tipsters we go...

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Of the Philly teams, only 103 and 272 have won so far this year.

103 hasn't had as much success in Philly as they have a little farther upstream and across the Delaware River in Trenton. Always either an alliance captain or #1 pick, they've been unable to get into the Finals in the City of Brotherly Love since their win in 2001. They may be a PA team, but NJ is their "home" regional.
<snip>
272 was 5-3-0 in PNR qualifying, but has done well in Philly in the past (2003 Finalist, 2002 Winner).

More from the peanut gallery:

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If 84 has there both there ramps worked out watch for them to have an easy 60 points at the end. If they can get them to work i can see them going pretty far in the finals

365 has great potential. After losing in the quarterfinals at FLR to the #8 seeded alliance, these guys have a lot to prove. They didn't lose because they couldn't score (between them and 191 alone they should have been able to easily outscore everyone at the regional) they were just out played. They need to re-think how they play in the finals with this game and go out to score (like 126, 125, and 97 did at Boston)

571 seeded 13th at UTC but didn't go into the finals. What happened there??? They need to step up and show us what they have to offer this year.

571? Oh Yeah, Team Paragon. I could see them having a pretty good run but you have to give them some slack. Even #1114 Didn't make it to the Finals in Ypsilanti. Ramps happen man!

One more quote and then I got to get on to the next regional:

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103 won NJ.....again. The Cybersonics are a great tubing team, with no surprise. They were the perfect compliments for 25 in Week 1, but will 103 find their right compliments in Philly? Will they be able to withstand the defense without the aid of the brutally powerful and effective Raider Robotix?
1712 seems to be cut from a similar stock as the effective as successful 179, 306, and 842. I'm not sure if DAWGMA will be quite as good, but they should be a factor if they can score half as well, and if their ramps work.
316 was a lifting force to be reckoned with in FLR.
365 was a scoring force to be reckoned with in FLR. They seem poised for another strong outing here. MOE took off the ramps in Rochester, whether they put them back on or not will be interesting. With 341 and 357 submitting elsewhere (and losing), MOE seems in the clear for Chairman's....but will it happen?
341 wasn't so hot in Jersey. They stepped it up for Chesapeake, a semi-finalist and #6 AC. Can they bring it over the top?

Heart pick: Team #222, they were finalists in Pitt against the hellacious defense that Team #247 put up against them. The Tigertrons have been finalists a number of times in their career but never made it to the Champion Circle. I am pulling for them this week in Philly.

Oh yeah, forget about all those question marks raised by all those tipsters, the smart money has Team 103 on the Championship Alliance. Take it to the bank: #103 adds to their Banner Collection this weekend.

Callin' 'em as I see 'em.

Looooooooong Iiiiiisland
Here is a surprise to me: Long Island has the 3rd lowest median team score of all the regionals in the WORLD this year -- true true.

More numbers: on the smallish side with 41 teams and only 9 with a week of competition under their belts and only 1 of those made it to the finals of there regional.

BUT.... ...that one Team is none other than the legendary Cyber Blue Team #234 from Indianapolis. They have a great quote from Jimmy Dugan[6] on their website by the way -- go check it out yourself, definitely worth the clicking. My spy (shown here) at the Boilermaker Regional RAVED about Cyber Blue. This was a team that showed they could put the tubes on the rack (and was rewarded with #3 seed and the first team drafted) AND they could get down and dirty when the defense turned it up a notch or two (or 4 in the case of the Boilermaker Regional ;-)

Here is a great tip from the tipline:

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I think the best story line could really be the 229 v. 870 issue.

870 has won the regional every year since 2003 (except for 2004 when 229, 311, and 1114 won defeating 870 in the semi's) Will this be the year the 229 comes back and yet again keeps 870 from winning the regional.

229 has a good gripper, and with the time running out at FLR they seemed to be clicking, working more as a team and less as 2 individuals.

Hmmm... ...yes, yes, yes... Everything checks out. hmmm... ...I wondered what happened to #229 at the Finger Lake Regional. I swear I thought I had picked them to do well in some regional or other, but I can't prove it. Perhaps I am hallucinating from exhaustion (it is getting way to late for me to keep this up... ...you may think this is easy but it wears me out, seriously). No matter. I just looked at their robot here (with specs -- note to rookie team and other dominant veteran wannabees: COPY THESE GUYS -- seriously. /by0 are my new heroes.) If I didn't tip them in the past, I need to make it up to them now. These guys seed HUGE in NY this weekend and at least make it to the finals -- after that, the Fates will judge.

As to Team #870, traditions matter. Team RICE has a tradition of winning.... ...and building pretty competitive robots.... of course they'll need partners and luck.
Question:
Do they have the enough to keep their wining ways rolling?
Answer:
"Well, I am sure I don't know, darling. Luck favors the prepared. " -- Enda Mode[7]

True enough.

Let me bottom line it for you and get out. Pick #229 and #234 to make it at least as far as the finals. Slight edge goes to #234 to win it all but it could go either way. Partners decide which of these to are Champs. If they manage to get together on the same alliance, they win in a cake walk -- #870's traditions not withstanding.

TO BE CONTINUED...

It is too late for me to get to Western Michigan tonight. Stay tuned...

Joe J.

Notes
[4] Hey, Peachtree & Palmetto Regionals, I know this is a cheap shot -- but you have to remember this is not supposed to be a boring nice nice column. Entertainment is the standard of measure.

To be honest, I felt bad that I didn't know enough about GA to make good comments back in Week 3 and I was so tired last night, I just rushed through the SC regional without connecting the dots that I was shorting 2/3rds of the souther regionals (FL? Everyone knows that Florida is part of the North East or Midwest or some such. One thing I can say for SURE is that while it may touch GA and AL, FL left the Deep South generations ago -- except Miami and we don't have a regional in Miami yet, so there. VA? Well, they've got good people in the Commonwealth but as to VCU being a Souther Regional? Are you are out of your mind? ;-) Let's not speak of this any more.

Seriously though, if you want coverage in this column, dish me interesting tips. I am desperate.

[5] I can certify it myself (I am an actual licensed Professional Engineer with one of those cool stamping/embossing doodad and everything ;-) You may not believe, but I the day of kickoff, I sketched up almost that very gripper design. I practically BEGGED 3 different teams build it (INCLUDING my own daughter from team #573). Nobody thought much of it. But they didn't know the power of the gripper nor the power of YouTube. These guys will be sorry now won't they? Well... ...they SHOULD BE even if they aren't.

[6] Jimmy Dugan is a movie character but the quote is still awesome.

[7] Edna Mode is also a movie character but again the quote is awesome even if it is a rip off of earlier quotes just as Jimmy Dugan's quote was. Awesome does not always imply original...