Predictions: The Big Show -- Einstein
 

First things first.

FIRST did a pretty good job balancing the divisions this year (A/C/G/N).

• Median Team No: 880.5/938.5/917.5/899
• Team No < 1000: 46/44/45/45
• Team No > 1950: 10/10/11/11
• Regional Champions: 30/22/25/23
• Regional Finalists: 7/13/14/15
• Single Dippers (1X Regional Finalist or Champion): 35/31/37/35
• Double Dippers (2X Regional Finalist or Champion): 7/8/4/5

That is about as balanced as you could expect -- I suppose if we pushed things one way or another you'd pretty much push some other numbers around.

Before I get too far, notice that every division has over 30 teams that have won a regional or were regionals finalists. And a lot of great teams left the regionals early without even making it that far.

SO... ...don't even THINK that winning a regional is going to be enough to GUARANTEE being drafted. Teams in Atlanta are going to have to fight like dogs to get noticed. Being one of those 16 teams drafted in each division is a prize in itself. Don't take things for granted or you'll be watching the eliminations from the sidelines.

You can read my divisional predictions for how I think those are likely to come out but I read it this way: For each division I have Tips and Locks. Tips are just that: teams to watch, they have a good chance of having a long run after lunch on Saturday. Locks are my highest pick tier: I estimate that a lock has a better than 50% chance of making it to the Finals of their Division.

Let's face it, skill matters, but luck plays a big part of how things go down in the Dome. To win on Einstein, it is going to take two Locks plus a serviceable 3rd robot to fill in the gaps.

Given that I have to go with Curie. They have 6 Locks (118, 121, 126, 330, 469, & 1114 -- more than any other division) If Curie Champion has 2 of these teams on board, the other divisions will have a long afternoon.

Galileo has the next best shot with 4 Locks: 25, 56, 229, 503.

Archimedes and Newton have 3 Locks each (100/175/254 & 33/111/148).

You can quibble with my picks but that is the way I see things from this vantage.

BOTTOM LINE:
So who's it going to be?

You have got to be kidding! There are almost 350 teams and you want me to pick 3 that will be lucky enough get together and make a run for it. The odds are 1,000,000:1 against my getting this thing correct, but here goes.

PREDICTION:
Lighting will strike twice for #469, they get picked by Curie's #1 Seed, #1114 who also manages to steal #176 who is inexplicably still available in the 2nd round. Many tough matches but in the end, Simbotics, Las Guerrillas, & Aces High are just too much for the competition.

Good luck to all teams.

Joe J.

Re: Predictions: The Big Show -- Einstein
 

So Joe let me get this straight. Your throwing out a bold prediction that we will add not one but two teams to the teirs of double national champions!!! (Aces High (176) 1999, Las Guerillas (469) 2003) Like the picks but that curse has only fallen once before.

Pete

Re: Predictions: The Big Show -- Einstein
 

This is true, but when that curse fell, it fell hard.

I think Joe's nuts to be making an Einstein prediction--too many known unknowns, plus probably a few unknown unknowns--but what he predicts seems plausible, particularly the 469/1114 combo. (Whether they'll get 176 depends on The Way of the Serpentine.)

Re: Predictions: The Big Show -- Einstein
 

I say 1114 and 2056 will see eye to eye again and pick some power house D bot like 48 for example.

Re: Predictions: The Big Show -- Einstein
 

Not only that, but half the locks have won a championship before:

126: 1992
330: 2005
469: 2003
25: 2000
503: 2005
100: 1995
111: 2003
148: 1993

In addition, 254 and 175 have been so close they could taste it: 2 time finalist and 3 time division champion respectively

This looks like a great year for a repeat champion.

Re: Predictions: The Big Show -- Einstein
 

Aces High won in 1999 with Team 1 and Team 48.

Re: Predictions: The Big Show -- Einstein
 

My mistake I'll fix that in the post.

Re: Predictions: The Big Show -- Einstein
 

Those two teams have to be in the same division first... and that's not going to happen. (1114 in Curie, 2056 in Galileo)

Re: Predictions: The Big Show -- Einstein
 

hahaha, correct. im slow today. Ok. I see 1114 teaming with 330 and needing a solid D bot like 48.

Re: Predictions: The Big Show -- Einstein
 

Sapient advice, indeed. There is also the unknown factor the "Algorithm of Death" will play on the Top 8 seedings. It's going to be a fight to even make it INTO the elimination rounds, let alone advance through them.

Re: Predictions: The Big Show -- Einstein
 

Don't even bring that up its a rough spot for some of us to get that close so many times.

More reason to belive 1114 will seed high because of having the right number.

Re: Predictions: The Big Show -- Einstein
 

I'm not gonna try to predict alliances but I will try and predict the division that will win. As powerful as a 1114 & 330 alliance would be I don't see them winning it all. Even if that happened (which in itself is still questionable) I think that the third alliance partner wouldn't be good enough to give the team a good balance. Now I think its a toss up between Galileo & Newton, both divisions have unbelievable depth and have a good chance at being in the finals. With that said which ever of those division comes up with the more powerful and cohesive alliance will be my pick to win at Einstein.

Re: Predictions: The Big Show -- Einstein
 

At champs, 70ish teams a division. There will be about 3-6 Diffrence Makers, 15-20 Level 2 robots, 15-25 level 1 robots and the rest would be level .5 or lower quality robots.

Diffrence Maker - Does everything well and plays extremely well with others.
Level 2- Does everything but better at one thing then others or does one thing very well, plays well with others.
Level 1- Does one thing some-what well, palys fairly well with others.
Level .5 - Tries to do one thing well and is a small headache for any alliance captain.

Let's look into GTR for an example.

DM- 1114
Level 2- 2056
Level 1- 176
Level .5- Don't want to affend anyone so i'll keep this alone.

As you see, that was the winning alliance of GTR which had about 10 less teams then what a division will have. It can easily be done to find a level 1 maybe level 2 team if they slipped through the cracks. I have seen it happen numerous times in the past 4 years that i have gone to the championships.

$.02 i wish i was worth more. :p

Re: Predictions: The Big Show -- Einstein
 

Your point is clear, but when 2056 is an alliance captain, and they're standing on Einstein, I predict you will be eating your words ;)

Re: Predictions: The Big Show -- Einstein
 

Well then i would be very proud and will not eat my words becuase they are level 2 due to the fact of being able to score tubes only, they do not have a ramp. I made the points clear enough that the DM is able to do everything well, and the next level down does everything alright OR does 1 thing very well.

But i do see them going very far.

Re: Predictions: The Big Show -- Einstein
 

Exactly.

don't underestimate 2056. I could very well see this team being the first rookie FIRST World Champion (yes i dare to say this) They didn't get those 2 blue banners for being not so good. There robot is great, and the drivers are just as good if not better than most of the "elite" teams of FIRST. But who know's it will all be revealed come Saturday of who is the best in FIRST this season.

Re: Predictions: The Big Show -- Einstein
 

The world champion in 1995 (Ramp and Roll) was a rookie, and was featured on the cover of the Small Parts catalog the following year. 2056 along with all other rookies attending do however have the chance to be the first rookie world champion this century.

EDIT* The world champion in 1992 was also a rookie ;)

good luck!

RAZ

Re: Predictions: The Big Show -- Einstein
 

Has a rookie been the alliance captain?

Re: Predictions: The Big Show -- Einstein
 

Nope. All the rookies to win did so before alliances existed.

Re: Predictions: The Big Show -- Einstein
 

I forgot about '95. sorry :(

Re: Predictions: The Big Show -- Einstein
 

Hmm.
'95 - Ramp and Roll
'07 Rack and Roll.

I hope to see another Rookie dominate the Roll Games. :P

Re: Predictions: The Big Show -- Einstein
 

This isn't smart, but meh..

Archimedes: 175 (drivers), 233 (experience), 254 (their ramps-- killer). 254 with a solid partner to help take some of the heat off (233's a good pick, psst) will dance their way through. If they are carrying the alliance, then forget about it.

Curie: 1114 is on deck this year. And of course 330. But if they falter, then it will probably be to 48. 1114 and 330 are my top two picks, but the question is-- given the opportunity to ally, will they make a good alliance? That is, can they work well together?

Galileo: ugh. My love is 56. I love that robot. But, 217 is solid.. and people aren't (IMO) watching 25-- they could *gasp* slide under the radar, then run circles around everyone.

Newton: 148, 696, 1124. 148 is *this* close. This close: ||. Solid execution will give them the gold.

Re: Predictions: The Big Show -- Einstein
 

Here is my prediction...

The winning alliance will consist of two very good and consistant scorer and also one hybrid. One of the teams on the winning alliance will not be one of the very known teams.

... 2 more days till the big show...

Re: Predictions: The Big Show -- Einstein
 

Curie: 330 seeds 2-4, picks 234 and 291, wins the division.
Archimedes: 233 seeds #3-5, picks 100 and 47 (with 997, 179 and 1501 already gone), wins the division.
Newton: 1038 seeds 1-2, picks 148 and 1885, wins the division.
Galileo: No comment, other than my projected winner(s) isn't the one everyone else has. ;)

The Einstein finals are too close to call, so I won't.

Re: Predictions: The Big Show -- Einstein
 

Although I don't agree with any of your predictions I do agree that this is gonna be an extremely close championship, probably the closest to date.

Re: Predictions: The Big Show -- Einstein
 

You think 3 rampbots will be the first 3 picks?

Re: Predictions: The Big Show -- Einstein
 

No, those 3 teams will be gone by 233's 2nd round pick, when they pick up 47. 254 and 71 will likely be picked ahead of 233s first selection though.

Re: Predictions: The Big Show -- Einstein
 

highly likely 3 rampbots are over talked:D

Re: Predictions: The Big Show -- Einstein
 

I agree, for several reasons:

-The divisions have come out extemely well-balanced this year, with multitudes of good robots in each division, giving each division a good chance of forming an uber-alliance.

-Rack 'n Roll is a game that makes it nearly impossible for any robot, no matter how great, to dominate (unlike 25 in '06, 71 in '01 & '02, etc.).

-From what I've seen, I feel certain that Einstein will be determined by strategy and execution, not just being really, really good at scoring. (Case in point: No one predicted the #5 alliance winning at Detroit. But they played a smothering defense with a reliable ramp and executed remarkably, beating numerous "superior" opponents.)

Seeing as all the divisions have an equal chance in my mind, I will now roll a die and declare that this year's champs will come from: Archimedes
;)

Re: Predictions: The Big Show -- Einstein
 

Is there a little bit of bias in that prediction?

Re: Predictions: The Big Show -- Einstein
 

(Disclaimer: I love 1038.)

The only sure way for 1038 to win Newton is by drafting 247. They are one of the most effective scorers this year, but they need protection. If 247 isn't protecting 1038, they will almost certainly be riding 1038's interchangable bumpers.

Re: Predictions: The Big Show -- Einstein
 

I personally want to see 1038 team with 696 and 573(biased). That would be a winning alliance, two powerhouse scorers and a successful hybrid what more could you ask for.

Re: Predictions: The Big Show -- Einstein
 

Ok so people are posting who they think will win the divisions so i guess i put mine up

Newton - 148 seeds #1, picks 111 then picks 340
Curie - 1114 seeds #2 picks 234 then picks 176
Archie - 494 seeds #1 picks 254 then picks 4
Galileo - 2056 seeds #1 picks 217 then picks 1251

I honestly think there is so much depth this year in each division that it is not going to be a problem for the number 1 seeds to win their divisions. The problem is going to be getting the team that they WORK best with. The alliance with the teams that work best together will beat the alliance with the best teams on them any day (excluding if the best teams work the best together)

just what i think could happen for winners in each division.

Re: Predictions: The Big Show -- Einstein
 

But in '92 and '95, it was national champions, right? So technically, it would be the first rookie world champion.

Re: Predictions: The Big Show -- Einstein
 

I agree with Arefin-- although a lot of us have watched hours of matches and scouted many teams, it's impossible to know what's going to happen. But that's just the fun of predicting, isn't it? It's fun to see how close you can get with whatever information you have.

That said, I'll make some predictions of my own ;):

The giants in Curie will get split up. They will have such a target on their backs and such a rigorous qualification schedule that the very top seeds won't be the "best" robots. Look for a number 4-6 seed to come out of Curie. 3 quality bots will band together to make it to Einstein.

Here's a vague one, but one I think is true: Somebody we all never expected is going to make it to Einstein, possibly win it all. We'll find out who that is come next Saturday.

Re: Predictions: The Big Show -- Einstein
 

Arefin:

I don't think Cory was calling anyone stupid, he just used a bit of confusing sentence structure. I myself had to check twice to be sure.


Cory - "Nobody said that their picks are 100% correct, and that anyone who thinks otherwise is stupid."

I believe he meant, "Nobody said that their picks are 100% correct, and nobody said that anyone who disagrees with their picks is stupid". I think he was implying that this has been a friendly, rather innocuous thread to this point where no one is proclaiming some kind of uncanny psychic ability to predict the future better than anyone else, but I can see your viewpoint that many of these prognostications have had a tinge of rah-rah-ism for the home team or perhaps also a bit of the "me too" bandwagon syndrome. Even so, I don't think there's anything necessarily wrong with having fun in guessing.

Basically, this is all just for fun, and no one is pretending to know anything more about the final outcome than anyone else. If everyone continues to go with the flow, then no worries.

By the way, I have yet to make any predictions, nor will I, because karma and fate are scary partners, and I don't wish to upset either. I look forward to having our team try their best and be happy with whatever end result takes place. I don't have thick enough stomach lining to be up all night worrying about who's going to pick us or getting into the Top 8 or even if we'll do well enough to deserve consideration for the elimination rounds. I just hope the experience ends up being an enjoyable one for me and everyone else participating.

Re: Predictions: The Big Show -- Einstein
 

Let's continue... :)

Re: Predictions: The Big Show -- Einstein
 

sounds good nuff for me :D

i'm sad... Joe didn't give us a shot at getting to einstein :(

Re: Predictions: The Big Show -- Einstein
 

He's just being statistically correct in all reality he wants us to he just can't say it.

Re: Predictions: The Big Show -- Einstein
 

I'm with Tim on this one. There are plenty of good teams. There are very few great teams. Just try to find a team you can work well with. I'm just afraid that the match list gremlins will keep teams from working together. I already know we won't be teamed WITH any of the teams you have us with. But thanks for the props.

Re: Predictions: The Big Show -- Einstein
 

Ahhh, but if 247 is defending 1038, they're not defending 148, which is guaranteed to cause some serious issues. 1885 can toss in a couple ringers (or a spoiler), play defense, or interfere while this is all going on as well (until they deploy their ramps at about 35-40 seconds). That is, unless 247's alliance sends multiple defenders, then we approach a whole different debate (and a debate about how well 148 can score through defenders and carry an alliance). Regardless, these alliances are the ones I feel had the best chance (by plurality, nobody has even near a 1/10 odds of actually happening) of not only being formed, but making to Einstein when they are formed. I doubt any of my picks will end up being 100% true. Maybe 1 or 2 of the teams I mentioned will make it to Einstein, but I doubt more than that.

Re: Predictions: The Big Show -- Einstein
 

Having seen what Da Bears are capable of in Pitt, and being pitted next to them at the same, I think we would love to have them defending us in the eliminations, not vice versa :yikes:

We look forward to trying to get Newtion to Einstien, either by hanging tubes or helping other teams with scouting and strategy. This is gonna be FUN!

Re: Predictions: The Big Show -- Einstein
 

I was looking at what everyone was posting on the "ideal team" and they all seem to consist of 2 excellent ringers and a ramp-bot/defender, but I was sort of wonder that because all these divisions are so deep, is it that far fetched that there could be an Einstein quality team composed completely of excellent and good ringers? There are disadvantages to this type of team (running out of ammo:( ) but if they coordinate well, they might be unstoppable.

Thats just me though, feel free to scrutinize and poke holes in this theory, but I'm just throwing it out there to stir up thoughts.

Re: Predictions: The Big Show -- Einstein
 

/I'm dismounting my 648 high horse for the moment.

I see no problem with an alliance that has three effective tube scorers on it winning their division. I say this because there is a good chance that these teams could also play effective defense. 111 and 71 both have excellent crab drives and can play a mean defense if needed, yet both can score tubes effectively and quickly (plus they have ramps). Those teams won't hook up, though, they're in different divisions.

However, versatility could be the key for this year's champions. They'll have to adapt every match and at least one team (of the three) is going to have to play defense when they don't expect to.

/Remount high horse

Re: Predictions: The Big Show -- Einstein
 

Watching the finals at Palmetto, Boston and UTC proved to me that you need the "threat" of a ramp bot. The #1 alliance at Palmetto had two AMAZING ringer bots, and a 3rd bot without ramps. While they cruised through the 1st two rounds, they ran into problems in the finals because they didn't even have the option of 60 ramp points. Some strong defense and a double ramp sealed their fate.

At UTC, both alliances had great ramp bots. But this battle was won at the rack, as two very good ringer bots fought off a ringer and a defensive bot to win. At the end of the matches, neither team ended up with a 60 pt bonus, but the threat was still there. That threat is what kept the opposition from just scoring their 60 and winning the match.

Boston was similar, with 4 great ringer bots putting up points at the rack. But, again, 69's 2 ramps got the better of 121's single ramp. Rarely did the winning alliance lift both robots, but having the threat of 60 points forced the 121/1626 alliance to compensate and beat them at the rack.

Team won't need to score the 60 bonus points to win matches. But, having the ability to, will allow them to win the match at the rack. Two great ringer bots with a solid 2x ramp/defensive bot should win this Championship.

BEN

Re: Predictions: The Big Show -- Einstein
 

IMHO versitility in a robot will be somewhat important, but really not that important.
Of your three robots you should want to be able to field these potential job teams:
3 tube scorers
3 tube scorers ramp at end
2 tube scorers 1 defender
2 tube scorers 1 defender Ramp at end
1 tube scorer 2 defenders
1 tube scorer 2 defenders ramp at end
Basically I think you should have 2 teams that are mainly tube scorers, but have a strong drivetrain so that they can play defense, and also a ramp bot that can score tubes reasonably, but they don't need to be able to play defense.
I don't think any one team needs to be able to do all three things, and you might even be able to live without one of your tube handlers being able to play good defense.

Re: Predictions: The Big Show -- Einstein
 

well, here is my team combo that wins it

2056+25+84 Galileo d Curie 1114+330+176
4 Matches, including ONE TIE

Re: Predictions: The Big Show -- Einstein
 

If I was betting on the alliance being 2 or 3 of the teams mentioned, the "power teams" or the field... I bet the field. Someone will come out of nowhere to win this and everyone will question where they came from and how they got there. It just doesn't stand to reason that the big teams will GET to pick each other. You may have a few alliances made up of the power teams but when the dust settles the last 12 teams packing their creates will likely be a few power teams and a bunch of surprises.



Of course I could be completely wrong and the winning alliances will be made up of all previous regional winners. That is what makes threads like this fun to follow.

Have fun in Atlanta & remember, its just a game. By getting here, you've already won.

Re: Predictions: The Big Show -- Einstein
 

Alright here is the be all end all of the winners.

ARCH
#3 494, 254, 364> #1 997, 233, 302
GALI
#1 2056, 217, 93> #2 1902, 45, 279
NEW
#3 1124, 190, 68> #1 1369, 148, 1885
CURIE (SHOCKER CENTRAL)
#3 469, 234, 1305/910/1015> #1 1114, 330, 176

Finals Matches
Curie>Newton
Archimedes>Galileo

Final
Arch<Curie

Yeah, 469 wins it all for the second time over 494. They pull off the most impressive run in FIRST Championship history. This is how I see it going down.

Re: Predictions: The Big Show -- Einstein
 

haha, way to be upfront and put 494 in the spotlight. :p

Let me edit it for ya then.:p

Re: Predictions: The Big Show -- Einstein
 

This is an impressive guess. We will all see what happens; I like this and think that it will come very close to being right.

Re: Predictions: The Big Show -- Einstein
 

Nice to see we make it that far :-D

I'm thinkin' about an upset?