Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

The build season is a fond memory (I hope!) and the competition is set to begin. What are your predictions for the scoring this year? What are your predictions for the average winning alliance score and average losing alliance score?

If this year is like any other, the Week 1 scores will be a lot lower than the Week 5 scores. I will go out on the proverbial limb and predict a Week 1 average winning alliance score of 30 and average losing alliance score of 20. I think many teams will find it a lot harder to pick up the ball in the heat of competition than it was on the practice field at the build site. That will keep a lid on scores. I also predict that the Great Lakes Regional will have the highest average winning alliance score of any regional (60+).

What are your predictions?

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

Midwest is a week 1 regional, but it will have some high scores because it has alot of power teams. Some I can think of off the top of my head 33, 71, 111 ,1114. There are others, but I cant think of them right now. It will be a good competition.
Joey

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

I predict that Midwest will be the most heated week 1 regional. I don't really have any guesses as to what the scores will be but I think they will comparable to those of later week regionals.

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

there will be a score between 80-100 points at Midwest, which 1114 will be a part of.

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

florida regional is gonna be sick with the new stadium. that's about all i can predict lol.

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

I don't know about the scores...

But I estimate that the average number of hurdles by a single team will be around 2.5 per match. Really really really good teams will score as many as 4-5 a match.

Many robots will lose because of penalties. More than in previous years.

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

I may be completely wrong but I do not see high scoring matches happening.

There will be extreme amounts of traffic!

I can also see many teams getting stuck on the overpass with their arms. Causing a blocking of traffic.


Penalties will also play a huge role.

I just don't see many high scoring matches

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

I predict, that in an unusual turn of events, the scores in Week 1 will be higher than Week 2 (and possibly 3), but afterwards will curve back upwards.
A combinations of the Midwest regional being week 1 (and loaded, 16, 33, 71, 111, 503, 1114, 1625!!!) and teams learning how to prevent (or at least mitigate) hurdlers after watching week 1 will cause some lower scores. Afterwards, as hurdlers get more experienced, educated, and better, scores will begin to climb again. Week 1, however, will have the most penalties.
Week 1 winning scores will generally range from about 35-65, depending on regional and alliance.

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

I do hope we're only talking about hurdling robots. Otherwise, saying the average number of hurdles by a single team will be 2.5 / match means the average match will see 6 * 2.5 = 15 hurdles. I'll be shocked if the average match sees 10 hurdles, if that.

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

Yeah, I was talking about hurdling robots. There will only be four hurdlers on the field at the time (I highly doubt robots will pass the ball back and forth).

Also, I was speaking in terms of an average of the 8 qualify matches for any given hurdler. There might be matches where said hurdler doesn't hurdle at all.

What I mean't to say was: How many hurdles will the hurdlers hurdle if the hurdlers can hurdle hurdles? :confused:

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

I agree. I wish VCU was still week 1. Week 1 play is MUCH different than later week plays as teams try to figure out how to best play matches.
What interests me is the Hawaii regional.
With ALL of the Hawaii rookie teams pretty much only doing the Hawaii regional during week 5, I think it will be interesting considering they consist of about 70% of the teams and the majority of teams will be in the playoffs.

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

I wouldn't be surprised to see some very high scoring matches at BAE during week one. ;)

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

Hybrid will produce 16 to 24 points. Four lines and 1 trackball removed.

Teleoperated will produce on the average 40-60 points before penalties. The best hurlder on any alliance will have a tough time getting the trackball while being defended. That will leave another, slightly weaker hurdler free to get 2-3 hurdles for 16-24 points. A lap robot will find out that their speed will be better off used for defense. Along with the 2-3 hurdles, most teams will probably lap 3-4 times per robot for 18-24 points. A few teams will pick up 6-8 hearding points and a few teams will place a single trackball for another 12 points.

I see scores in the 56-84 point range per alliance before penalties. These scores are close enough that a net of two 10 point penalties will change many outcomes. Losing alliances will end up with 15-25 points (weak hurdler and 2-3 penalties) and winning alliances with have 50-60 points (1-2 penalties).

Robot assignments: Weakest will defend the strongest. That takes out two robots per alliance for anything except laping. The strength of any alliance will be on the ability of the middle robot to hurdle. It will be extremely important that all three robots on an alliance keep moving. If you lose one robot early, you will probably lose the match. Hurdlers will rule. Matches will seem slow until teams get used to watching their robots on something other than an open field.

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

I know hurdling gives the most points, and is just way cool, but i don't see too many robots getting 2-3 shots at the overpass for two reasons:

1. Most of the hurdlers have arms/lifts which are rather slow and require to stake out valuable space near the over pass.

2. Hurdlers have to let go of the ball which will leave them wide open to opportunistic defenses.

I predict that a decent alliance will score ~60 points, before penalties, with at least half of that coming from Hybrid. Defense will focus on the hurdle leaving the runners and herders opens for the vast majority of the alliance's points.


The only way I see an alliance scoring vastly more points that this would be through good shooters (Cheese and Sparky) and a relay system.

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

I predicted that week 1 regionals, at least in the qualifying matches will be decided by the way the alliance performs in auronomous mode. I can easily see an alliance of just 3 defensive robots, who can't even hurdle winning a game VS. an alliance with 3 hurdlers. 24 poins for not ever removing the ball, 12-36 more points for a good hybrid, that's alreadt more then 36 points for an alliance of just drivetrains, at to that about 6-7 more finish lines crossing and you are in the 50+points rabge for an alliance of drivetrains! i bet it can win an alliance of 3 not good not bad hurdlers, who lose all their time on grabbing the balls, and with some defence will find it hard to cross the 30 points line (in case of smart defence. they will be let to take the balls off the overpass, but not allowed to put them back on, and not allowed to drop the other aliiances balls off the over pass). I believe thi scenarion will not be as rare as many people think, 2008 might be the year of 4 digit teams in Einstein :P

Even though i said all what i just said, i built 2 hurdlers in both of my teams, i believe that hurdlers, good once, will dominate eventally in the finals etc.

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

I think that's a perfect assesment

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

Practice field? What practice field? We didn't have money to build one....

That aside, I would say that a winning alliance score would be around the 50-70 range, given that AT LEAST one robot is equipped with an autoloader (being able to hurdle and reload without requiring the aid of another robot to do so.) . Remember, since team alliances vary every match, you may (Though it may be highly unlikely) get paired with two other teams that require another robot to reload them, and you yourself have to do the same, giving you only three shots over the Overpass, total.

Also, I'd say a losing alliance score can be anywhere from 0-50, depending on how close the match is and how fast it progresses. However, if I had to narrow the scores down, I'd push it around to the 30-point range. It only takes one point to decide a match. But that's how I see the scores coming down to.

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

In my opinion, I'd say that the winning alliance score, on average of all the regionals, would be ~50ish. But the losing alliance could vary from far off to nail-biting close.

But if we look at regionals, I'd say Week 1 winning will probably be ~20ish. Again losing will vary.

And Week 5 regionals will see winning scores around 60. Teams will get into the groove and be more comfortable with hurdling and handling the trackball. Again losing will vary.

All these scores will be before penalties, which there will be a lot of. So subtract around 5-10 points from the scores.

And I'll go out on a limb and predict the highest score of the season will be 112.

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

Going back to the classic argument...I see launchers scoring 1-2 hurdles more per match than most arms.

Also, I think 1-2 bots will tip over every other match.

good aliences will score 50-70

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

Does that include IRI?

i believe that IRI will have a 250+ points score, and that we will se more then 3 200+ scores prior to the championship.

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

WE WILL DESTROY ALL IN THE FLAMES!! THE GNOMES WILL TRYUMPH OVER ALL!!!!

anyway on a more serious note; i think that after a few practice rounds scores are just gonna skyrocket above the 70's, but we'll see.

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

Why wouldn't the hurdlers remove the two opposing balls and negate those 24 points? Especially given that this hypothetical alliance has 3 hurdlers, and at least one of which won't have a trackball at any given portion of the match, I don't see why they would invest their time without a trackball, to remove the opposing balls (especially towards the end of the match).

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

Week 1 prediction:
Average score will be around 50.
Good hurdlers will average under 2 hurdles per match.
At least 1 robot will tip over every other match.
Penalties will determine 40% of the matches.
Automomous will determine most matches unless penalties are excessive.

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

Defense will be attempted by many teams who have not perfected their manipulators. This will fail miserably as these teams will experience a surplus of penalties.

At the scrimmage in suffield, almost every team who attempted some sort of a defensive strategy experienced a penalty while doing so. It is very hard to do much on the defensive side of the game. The scrimmage saw countless impeding and wrong way penalties. Many of those caused from defensive attempts. Someone have a different opinion?

Week 1 will belong to the good hurdlers who have gotten their devices working properly. 2 good hurdles and a team is looking at running 10 laps just to OFFSET that difference in hurdles.

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

At the Suffield Shakedown, the scrimmage our team attended a few days before ship, we saw a lot of scores of around 50-80 later in the day and in the elimination matches. If this is before robots were completely built, I'm confident that week 1 scores will see this range.

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

I agree for Week 1 events, but as the game evolves, defensive strategies that don't involve penalties when executed properly will emerge. In previous years, "conventional scoring" had obvious defensive methods, and the defensive teams dominated early regionals as the offensive team gained experience and methods to counter the defense. Unconventional methods were borderline impossible to stop during early regionals, but forms of defending them evolved over time as well.
Take for example the 2007 game. It was very difficult for offensive bots to place tubes early on, but as more scoring bots became effective and teams learned how to avoid defense, scoring increased. Ramps were next to impossible to stop early on, but by Championship several different methods had evolved (see 330 in SD and 177 on Einstein for two quick examples).
This year is just the same, but both hurdling and laps fall into the "unconventional" category given the rules in place this year. Methods exist to still play defense, but they involve much more sophistication, dedication, and patience than simply sitting in between the offensive robot and the goal or trying to push the offensive robot. It will be very difficult for the average "box-on-wheels" to play effective defense this year. Most defensive bots will have to incorporate aspects similar to scoring bots, if not be scoring bots themselves (who need a different role on their current alliance for whatever reason).

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

While I agree with A LOT of what you are saying sean, I felt the same way before our team went to the scrimmage.

Even though it was a scrimmage, you can get a pretty solid feel for what the game is going to be like. Defense is very very difficult. Will there be effective defense? of course....but just like you said, its going to be hard for the average "box on wheels" to do much of anything defensively besides rack up penalties for their alliance.

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

Week 1 Scoring Predictions:

- Avg of (3*4 + 8 + 8*50%) 24 pts from hybrid mode. 50% of the time your opponent will accidentally knock off your ball from their overpass and all robots will cross at least their own finish line

- Avg of 20 penalty points per alliance per match due to accidental contact

- Launcher bots will spend more time chasing down balls than running around with them in possession.

- No alliance will be successful at passing balls around the track while staying in zones (i.e. 1 launcher bot is "fed" the track balls while staying in the quadrant before the finish line)

- Balls will be placed on the overpass at the end only for would-be defenders to discover that they're "removing" it the wrong way, effectively hurdling for their opponents and messing up all of our predicted statistics about hurdling.

Avg. Score: 52 after penalties.

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

Why is defense hard? in at least 75% of the field, opponents bots are fair game, and for the remaining 25% it only matters if they are about to hurdle. Which means you can hassle an opponent for at least 80-85% of the time. Just don't go backwards or hit them outside the bumper zone (unless its gripper gripper contact) and you're good. I think defense is always going to be big, you just need to know when to pull of. Also make sure you keep making laps. These traffic jams are a killer for everyone. There will be matches where you just can't do anything because bots will be laying everywhere, or broken, or clotheslined, stuck together etc. I've noticed in the scrim videos everyone clumps around the balls too. Getting a ball out of that mess will be near impossible sometimes. Sometimes you're going to have to play possum to get your opportunity at a ball and bring it to your homestretch. Not to mention fighting your own teamates for a ball. Those lap bots are going to be the quiet little winners we all forget about until their seeding in the top spots. I think the really strong grippers that can drive right up and on the ball will do well because they dont need space or time to do it.

Anyway, for my topic 2cents, random high scores because good hurdlers are left alone due to unable opponents. Then finals will get interesting. But I think more than 1/2 the matches will be without hurdles, and lots of racing.

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

I think it's gonna be 40 or 50 average

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

In my humble opinion, this is lunacy.

If there is a 200+ point match, I will buy yourself, and every team involved a case of Dew (or their favorite alternative soft drink).

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

There are going to be some amazing robots this year, and I'm prepared to have my mind blown. That being said, let's put together a spectacular hypothetical alliance and do the math. (It's all about the math, right?)

Take a fast lap bot like 148, and two beastly hurdlers. Let's say that they can manage to knock down both balls in hybrid and cross twelve lines (roughly a lap each... odds are that one will go farther, and another will get hung up on another robot). They start driver control with 64 points. Despite the field congestion, 148 clocks a lap every ten seconds, netting them 24 points. The other two bots score a remarkable eleven hurdles and crosses... and they finish with 198 points. This would require an unbelievable alignment of the cosmos just to score that many points. On top of that, as these bots are hurtling around the field, they'd better hope they don't rear-end somebody hurdling for the other alliance, or they're out another ten points.

In any case, much like last year, the record score will not be set at IRI or at the championship... it will be set in qualifying at the regional level, with a heavily stacked alliance against a group of absent or broken bots. 190+ is feasible, once. 200+? I'll eat my hat.

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

You will see at least one 0-0 tie after penalties are assesed at a week one regional.

At least one regional will be decided by a "questionable" penalty call.

The end of match placing bonus will important for teams that understand how to use it properly which will become more apparant as the season progresses.

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

Defense is hard to pull off without getting a penalty...period.

You cannot get in front of a team and slow down...thats impeding.
You cannot pin a team against the side of the field...thats impeding.
If a team is attempting to gather a ball and you cross a line completely, and then try to push them around and accidentally cross(edit*** touch) the line again...thats a wrong way.

I am not saying defense is not going to be around, because it always will be, but this game does not have that "get in the way" defense built in like usual games have done.

The scrimmage opened my eyes quite wide to how hard it is to pull off defense in this game. Honestly, teams that want to hurdle are going to eventually hurdle. I just think a better use of time will be to try and score for your own team. If you happen to cross paths with a team, give em a nudge, or knock their ball away, but keep on scoring or you are not going to win matches.

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

Fixed the wording. Small nuance penalties like this will be match-breakers.

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

Thank you... yes they will be

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

So long as the offensive team was smart enough with their bumper placement, that's not true at all. Moving laterally or slowing down in front of an approaching bot is impeding. Using virtually any field element to the defenders advantage is pinning/impeding. You can't force them into penalties by pushing them across lines. When you cross a line, you can't return to defend previous areas.
So long as they have acceptable bumper configurations to "Signal to Pass", best you can do it push them laterally while they move forward, try and turn the while they acquire the ball, or try and delay them for six seconds. Granted, six seconds is not a negligible amount of time (in fact, some top-tier lap bots clock their open-field laps to be approximately six seconds), it not likely to take away more than one hurdle from a hurdler, even if you're doing it every lap.
More effective defense would seem to be possible on the game pieces themselves, but their massive size and unwieldiness, your inability to possess opposing game-pieces, as well as the limited direction of play, makes it very difficult to keep them away from the opponent without incurring penalties...especially for a "box-on-wheels".

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

I think much of the scoring outcomes will rely on how people end up playing the game. If we play the game as it was designed (almost no defense) then scores should be very high in the beginning, but as trends show, people tend to get very defensive and in this game defensive tends to = penalties. That being said, I'm sure there are going to be numerous inventive ways to be defensive on the field without breaking any rules, and those will probably develop in the last two weeks of competition.

I'm definetly interested to see the trends from week to week at the regionals as well as the outcomes at championships....its going to be a very strategic year...

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

I'm surprised we haven't heard any arguing between Paul and Ken over two fingers and a thumb ;)


I'm predicting, offense will reign supreme this year. The only effective defense happening will be 148 style from last year (An offensive robot spotting an opportunity to spend 2-3 seconds to interfere with the other team [knocking a ball perhaps] then going right back to scoring).

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

Got your point, i've exagarted.
let's say 3 150+ scores and 1 190+. Seems more likely?

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

I'm not sure what you call lateral movement. If there's a lane open and the opponent could get around me but I stay between them and their ball, or pin the ball, or ride along side them and head them off at each attempt to a ball (all while leaving a lane open) thats not pinning or impeding. and seems simple in my mind, I haven't tried it yet, but... 1/2 of the grippers I've seen grab the ball on the sides (horizontally), which means if im on the front side of thier bot, but moving along with them they can't get the gripper out around the ball. All a driver needs to do is look ahead of the opponent their defending and go to the balls they're coming up on (again, as long as there's a lane open) I think picking up a ball while another bot is on it is going to be a real feat few bots can do.

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

Agreed. I just really don't see anyone putting up a score of above 200. A score of above 100 will be extremely rare; 200+ just sounds impossible to me.

I also agree with the many posted who commented on defense. I think that particularly in early weeks, but also in the later regionals and the world championship, most defensive efforts will be met with penalties. This game is designed to combat most traditional defensive with heavy penalties. So while defensive efforts will prevent robots from achieving their full scoring potential, they will pay a heavy price in penalties.

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

That's the right idea. I think one of the good defensive strategies out there would be for a robot resigned to knocking the opposing trackballs around, lapping when required by direction of traffic. At any point the defender could change to only lapping for more points. Also, it may be in the best interest of the defending robot to herd the opposing trackball around the track a number of times. Three laps herding = 8 points for the opposing alliance, but if that ball is not hurdled at all, which could have resulted in 24 points for three successful attempts, I say that's a workable strategy against a good hurdling robot. Of course the overall strategy is dependent on the full makeup of both alliances, so there maybe more or less crazy ideas put to work.

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

I think many of you are seriously underestimating the amount of defense that will be allowed in this game.

A robot can impede you from getting to a ball it just cant impede you from getting around the track.

These balls are very bouncy and a few strategic hits can make them very hard to pick up. Also the angled walls can bring a nice twist to the game.

As far as huge scores go, I don't think it will happen as some imagine. A smart alliance is not going to run up the score on their opponents. This year an opposing alliance can score for their opponents. A team that gets a big lead will be well served in remembering the importance of the RP's

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

I did not mean to point you out at all by the way. But, I was just wondering why it seems as if no one has any faith in any other region of FIRST?

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

Because the New England region is known much more for effective defense, something that leads to lower scores overall. Just because we play effective defense doesn't mean that each robot or alliance can't score as much as in the Midwest, or even the West Coast side of things.

I'm not complaining, our alliance last year needed to have a high scorer (987 from Las Vegas) and an effective defender (177 from Connecticut).

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

I don't think it has anything to do with "faith" in regions of FIRST. When we (or at least I) look at the regionals and guess (that's all we're doing here is guessing) which regional will be strongest/toughest/most competitive/highest scoring/etc. we are merely looking at lists of teams and applying past observations to future events.

Even if every CD user thought that Midwest was going to be the best regional ever because 111, 1114, and 71 are going to get on the same alliance and zip around the field scoring 300 pts. it doesn't really make it any more likely to happen. We have to always remember that many things that happen here on CD are for fun. When these threads pop up about what regional will be this or that or when we draft teams for FantasyFIRST we have to remember that FIRST is even less about these threads than it is about the robots. Instead of looking at these threads and being angry/disappointed/frustrated about why your regional or team is not the highest on the list we should look at the teams that are the highest on the list and try to figure out why they are there and how we can better our own teams and regions so we can try and reach that same level.

If you want to have a debate about which regional is really the best, first you have to get some data about which regional had the most learning, which regional had the most inspiration, and which regional had the most fun. When you find an objective way to determine that, then I might believe that what we are talking about here really matters, until then these threads are all for fun and anyone that doesn't see that needs to relax.

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

Yes, there will be some exciting matches in places around the country this week, and undoubtedly your team will be part of some of them. But c'mon, have you even seen the team list for Midwest?

https://my.usfirst.org/myarea/index....L&sort=teamnum

Seriously, look at it. Four former national champions (seven total wins), two hall-of-fame members... and 1114. St. Louis has 3 and 0, NJ has 1 and 1. Midwest is the place to be if you want the best look at what Einstein will be like.

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

I predict that scores will highly reflect the awarding of penalties by the referees and we might see that to the extent it was in 2005 with the tetras. Many rounds will have that pause at the end to see how many points will be deducted and whether it swings the match.

And, of course, no region can be as good as the Midwest, everyone on CD knows that!! (TIC)

WC

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

Great Lakes is NOT week 1 but does include
Eight former world champions with 8 wins and 2 hall of fame teams. Also a team from Michigan was on the winning championship alliance from 2001-2006. Last year 7 of the 8 alliances at Great Lakes included a former world finalist or world champion. But alas, no 1114 this year.

Different regionals will be known for different things, and remember it isn't all about the robots.

History has been known to repeat itself. But I don't think the highest score will come from Great Lakes, my guess it the West Coast.

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

Has anyone even mentioned GLR? There is alot of power in that regional just like in previous years. 33, 469,70, 65, 66, 67, 573, 503, 1015, 47, 279. 451, 1023. Deffinately a regional to keep an eye on.

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

I predict that there will be a total of 4 100+ matches in the regular season.
The highest score will be at IRI, and will be 136.

Actually, I have no idea. But whatever.

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

Take 2 fast herding lap bots and one efficient shooter bot like 118. Going with the same assumption that both balls are knocked down during hybrid and 12 lines are managed, 64 pts will be scored in auto. Then, 118 will camp out in its own home stretch while the 2 herders bring balls around to it. Every half lap for the herders, 118 will get a hurdle. If the herders manage 8 laps each, that's 16 hurdles for 128 pts, plus 32 pts for the laps.

Grand total of 224 points.

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

Week 1
Average Winning Score (Qualifying): ~50
Average Losing Score (Qualifying): ~35

Average Winning Score (Elimination): ~65
Average Losing Score (Elimination): ~40

At Midwest, QF 1 the winning score will be ~90 points (I expect this to be the high score for the week)

I would also argue that Granite State will be the best representation of this years game, based on the depth of the field, with NJ and Midwest hot on their tail.

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

The scores in this thread are grossly too high (for the most part). This is no different than any other year. We all are way too optimistic on the average score. The average winning score during qualifying in week 1 will be around 20 - 24 points.

This year's game is like 2005 in that the team who reverts to defense will lose the majority of the time. The offensive teams will counter defense with laps and the defensive teams will not be able to catch up.

Time will tell, but I just don't see how an overall defensive strategy can prevail in this year's game.

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

I expect good things from Florida regional this year. Keep an eye out week 3

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

In 2007, the week 1 median qualifying score for all alliances (winners & losers combined) was below 10. The mean score was around 20. There were a few matches with huge scores, but a lot more with zeroes. By Week 5, the scores were much higher (the median at the West Michigan Regional was around 30).

I know this year's game is totally different, but these matches are two of the fastest minutes around. Nothing goes as smoothly on the field as it does in your mind. Getting control of the ball is going to be tough. Any machine that needs more than a few seconds and/or a stationary ball for pickup will be hurting - even without defenders. Add defenders to the mix (their job will be to keep the opponents ball moving so they can't pick it up- not to impede the robot once it has the ball) and there will be a lot of robots that never score a hurdle.

I think the scenarios for a 60-100 point match sound entirely reasonable. You will see some of those, but the average qualifying match will be a fraction of that.

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

Im going to try and quickly run through what I think will be a good alliance score.

Robot-------------Hybrid---------------------------------------Teleoperated--------------------Endgame
Redabot 1-------1 Line(4pts)----------------------------------3 Hurdles, 4 Laps (32pts)---------------N/A
Redabot 2-------1 Trackball, 2 Lines (16pts)-------------------3 Hurdles, 3 Laps (30pts)-------------Place(12pts)
Redabot 3-------1 Line (4pts)---------------------------------5 Laps (10pts)-------------------------N/A
Totals-------------24pts------------------------------------------72pts----------------------------12pts

Grand Total
108

I don't think it's that unreasonable, you might see a hundred point match at every regional.

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

Right. Despite all the memories of 128+ matches last year, how many remember the multitude of matches with scores like 6-2, 8-0, etc.? Where 16 or 20 points seemed like a lot?

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

Just to back up what you said here.

BAE held the highest scoring match until week 5 with 312 points (in a semi-final no less).

We may be known for some brutal defense, but we are by no means weak on offense either.

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

The Suffield Shakedown 2008 scores are out. The winning alliances averaged 36 points and the losing alliances averaged 16 points. The day high was 76 points. The low match was 0 to 4 (Qualifications Match 16). The highest total score was 76-42 for 118 points (Semis 2, Match 2).

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

The game will depend on how the refs call it (I know I know, thats the way it is every year right?) But this year seems different for a couple reasons. The rules are also a bit foggy on the "defending against a hurdle" front. Theres also this new idea of "signal to pass"... Will teams really immediately allow an opposing robot to whiz by and pile on the points?

Who knows... hopefully yes since it is the spirit of the game, but I have seen crazier things. I have faith in the refs tho, they always seem to get it right in the end...

Also, it seems like there wont be as many blowouts this year since theres less emphasis on defense and all you have to do to score is keep driving! Matches will be close and I think it will be a good year for some of these new 2000+ teams to get into the Saturday afternoon matches. ;)

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

Now at the end of week 2 the above is ( once again) apparently the case. In addition, scoring is inconsistent, hard to follow and simply not working.

Sorry- but this game "inhales audibly" in general....

How about a game where you can see the score in the end without a referee interpretation?

IMHO

WC

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

well my team just got back from the kettering rookie pilot.


we were number 1 comming out of qualifaction and our average was 26.4 points per match, but some teams were in the 27,and 28 points per match. There are rookies mind you so i would not be surprized to see teams getting 30-35 points per match.

And in hybrid, well hybrid wasn't great most teams only got 4... the best was 8. But with our new hybrid code we can score 16 so i can see some teams getting 20, or 24.

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

I agree- I did some similar math, and determined that there is a chance of a score between 190-200, but only an exceptionally played match, where everything goes as planned among three amazing robots. The other math I did (before regionals started) said that a really well played match was around 110, and that average would be 60-ish. Those predictions were right, so that makes me think that 250+ is incredibly unlikely.

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

Here are some scoring statistics for the first two weeks. This includes all regionals. The median and average scores are very close this year.

Median winning score (qualifying matches): 45
Median losing score (qualifying matches): 20
Median high score (qualifying matches): 97

Median winning score (eliminations): 73
Median losing score (eliminations): 43


Here is a crude look at the role experience plays. It is based on team number.
Median Team Number in attendance: 1134
Median Team Number to make eliminations: 1190
This statistic varied a lot.

I find it interesting that the median "experience" of the teams that made it to the elimination rounds is lower than the overall median experience at the event in general. That's encouraging to those of us on young teams!

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

If you're doing stats on those numbers, care to publish some of the other interesting numbers? average, std. dev., etc.?

Now I'm tempted to do some stats by myself. I probably will, once I have time :P

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

I don't know if it's possible, but can we also get a look at the average scoring gap between the losing and winning teams?

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

I'll give this a try (cut & paste from a spreadsheet) and see if the columns line up.

Here are summary results for each regional. I looked at the median and average, but they were almost always within one point (unlike last year, where the average was much higher than the median due to a few blowout scores). I didn't look at standard deviation. I got the raw data from the FIRST site.

Med Win Q = Median score of the winning alliance in qualifying matches
Med Lose Q = Same, except for losing alliance
Max Qual = Maximum alliance score in qualifying matches
Med Win E = Median score of the winning team in elimination matches
Med Lose E = Same, except for losing alliance
Med Tm Q = Median team number in all qualifying matches
Med Tm E = Median team number of the 24 teams in the elimination matches

Event Week Med Win Q Med Lose Q Max Qual Med Win E Med Lose E Med Tm Q Med Tm E
Midwest 1 49 20 112 71 43 1650 1179
Granite 1 53 30 92 82 52 613 780
NJ 1 42 20 100 74 64 1089 521
St. L 1 56 26 94 82 60 1178 1096
Oregon 1 40 16 78 56 38 1540 1483
FLR 2 58 34 118 81 51 703 371
KC 2 40 18 76 44 36 1827 1960
VCU 2 41 17 122 54 42 762 1200
AZ 2 36 12 82 55 38 1726 1563
SD 2 48 21 120 87 41 981 1283


Summary 45 20 97 72.5 42.5 1133.5 1189.5

Re: Scoring Predictions Anyone?
 

Howzzat? By inserting {code} and {/code} tags, and removing a couple characters in the titles, I got them to line up. Thanks for compiling this.