Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

I have just spent like 20 minutes reading EVERYONEs post in this thread, like others, i see a lot of well shooter can do this....and arms can do that...and my team has done this...and this team has done that...

The goal of this thread was to predict what was going to happen.

In my honest opinion, if we have simply 1 shooter vs. 1 arm, the shooter is going to win. However, this isn't goign to happen because we have 4 other robots on the field who are shooters/arms/herders/racers/younameits. While I feel shooters 1 on 1 will be more effective, the alliance is where games are won and loss.

If you ask me, the best alliance you can have is 1 of each of these main categories (arms/shooters/racers). I think while these threads are fun, a lot of the time they should jsut be left as fun. Wait until you see what is going on at teh week 1 regionals. Chances are it will be different than what every one of us is thinking. You will see shooters do well, some will do extremely well, however you will see shooters do very poorly as well. You will see arms do well, some will do extremely well, however you will see arms do very poorly also. FIRST always balances itself out. Well made robots, good strategy, and a bit of luck...as always, the keys to success.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

I still believe that the best alliance will be the teams that work off of each others strengths. I also believe that a team who keeps one robot (either a great launcher or lifter) in their zone while the other two robots bring the balls back will win.

I believe that this alliance will be made up of 3 robots that can do it all. They will knock down both balls during autonomous, they will put the balls back on the rack at the end of the match and will knock down at least one competitor's ball backwards so no points are scored at the end of the match.

The best defense will be a great offense. :cool:

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

Ad Hominem, much? Honestly, it was a prediction, and we didn't really need to get hostile about it all. If my phrasing was a little harsh, it was forewarned by the word "cynical" being present in the title.

I have had experience with arm systems. I have worked and spoken to some of the best ones. I've spent time analyzing this game. After all that, it has become my OPINION (not fact!) that shooters will be able to outscore an arm any day.

Yes! Thanks!

The whole point of this thread was to not address the alliance factor (we all KNOW that it's an alliance that will win, why stress over it?), but in stead to address what kind of robot will lead the field (just as 25 did in 06) by taking the most wins, and being known as the most fearsome bot.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

I agree with the the thought that, all other things the same, a shooter will be faster than an arm bot. There is that small smidgen of time that they gain by not having to stop at the overpass.

This small advantage may not seem like much, but it opens up a unique strategy that I haven't seen anyone go for yet (though I'm still holding out for 1114!). Basically, if you launch the ball properly (as in lots of backspin) you can get it to slow enough when it bounces to be easy to retrieve again. If it's done properly, you could even get the ball to bounce back into your robot. This completely bypasses any time that would be taken to retrieve the ball again, which seems like it will be a major issue!

I was hoping more teams would realize this strategy and go for a bounce catch, but then again we haven't seen everyone's robot yet.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

One thing to remember: Just because it works well in the shop doesn't mean it's going to translate to on field dominance. There are far to many variables out there that cannot be duplicated in the shop that teams are going to have to face on the fly. From tenacious opponents who make strategies specifically designed to stop you to alliance partners who barely work or have not a single clue of what they are doing bd are more of a hindrance than a help. Being able to deal with these variables are what separate the strong from the also ran.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

I feel like a broken record. In 2006, the game was structured in a way that an individual robot could take over, and claim it's spot as the most feared robot of them all. 2008 is a game where no robot will be able to win them all (or even come very close) without partners that can cooperate and aid it.
Yes, we all know an alliance will win. But, no individual robot will come out with the most wins, on any level (match, regional, championship, etc) without the aid of their partners in some form.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

I'm waiting till 71, 111, and 1114 battle it out at West Michigan in 3 days to form an opinion on what will be the dominant strategey. we've seen 111, but haven't seen how effective they are yet, and have yet to see 71 or 1114 in action. I think we will all be surprised by how the game plays out in two days... be patient the real game will be revealed on thursday when teams actualy get on the field and play.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

I wholeheartedly agree.

The robot design that will garner the most wins wont be the best shooter, the best arm, or the best runner ... it'll be the robot that can best adapt to how the game is being played at that regional and adapt to their alliance partners strengths and weaknesses.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

I think the point of this thread was to DISCUSS the different similarities/differences between arm-bots and shooters and to assert our collective OPINIONS on the subject. How the alliance works is completely arbitrary to the conversation. This thread is merely for SPECULATING over which design would be more dominant over the other.

C'mon, this thread is for fun, as noted by the number of pages in 1 day. Arguments/Debates are fun, interesting, and engaging. We all know we will see how it plays out on the first day of competition, so stop mentioning that. Just post your ideas on why you think shooters (as mentioned in the initial post) are better or worse than arm-bots. There have already been some interesting posts on the subject, so try as hard as possible not to deviate from that discussion.

Now, my opinion is that shooters will have a clear advantage.

-low CG (I haven't seen a tall/tippy shooter yet...)
-shoot on the fly (some elevators can do this, but none that I've seen also load from the front)
-almost no chance of exceeding the 80" rule (not a big issue, just a minor point that hasn't been made yet, that I know of)

the main point here is the shoot on the fly. You save ~5 seconds or more (depending on the design, I know 179 can hurdle fast with their arm) on that fact alone. Shooters also (some of them) can knock off and catch the ball very, very quickly. I haven't seen an arm robot do this yet. NEW IDEA: Shooters can place the ball faster than arm robots. I say this because arm robots (most of them) take some time to raise the arm and actually place the ball. Shooters simply move the the right spot on the field and shoot. From our experiments, you don't have to be very accurate to get the ball on the overpass...

Just throwing some ideas out there for discussion...

EDIT: and what Craig Hickman said earlier about robots taking the most wins, I believe he meant which robot would make the most points.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

[quote=TheOtherGuy;707951]NEW IDEA: Shooters can place the ball faster than arm robots. I say this because arm robots (most of them) take some time to raise the arm and actually place the ball. Shooters simply move the the right spot on the field and shoot. From our experiments, you don't have to be very accurate to get the ball on the overpass...

QUOTE]

I think this statement may be too generalized. Not all shooters can shoot it on the overpass. Some are designed to shoot "over" the overpass only, where it may be difficult for teams to move backwards a bit and try to make it land perfectly on there. I'm not talking about every shooter.
Moving to the right spot may be hard to do with other robots on the field.

Arm robots wouldnt drive up to an overpass, then start lifting their arm to place on the overpass, thus taking too much time. They can do it while moving towards the overpass on the fly which is a smarter play in saving time. The one guarantee I think is that a greater no. of arm bots can place it on the overpass better and with great efficiency (not necessarily faster), while not as many shooters can pick a spot and place it just right on the overpass. I'm sure many experienced controllers and certain robots may do this, but not some of the ones I have seen from others. If an arm bot can place the ball on the overpass, I am assuming that they can remove it also (generalizing here). I have not seen every shooter built to do this. A great shooter will have that capability to knock balls down.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

Yeah, until it overshoots, hits the bottom of the overpass, backfires and breaks the launcher mechanism (as happened to one of the teams at suffield)

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

I'm going to stay out of the rest of the discussion for now, but...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T5d34yZrSH0

Now, the ball does not consistently stay on the overpass, but it consistently knocks another ball down. Provided that another ball has been removed, we ARE capable of removing one ourselves. If no ball is removed...well, then the training wheels come off. :)

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

EH GAD!! Team 39 can catch a bouncing trackball! (It happens during the end of the video, and yes I know it doesn't bounce off the ground.... But it was cool none the less!!!)

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

I'm sorry for the misinterpretation, but I meant at the beginning of the match. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JKdTJSR-KuU

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

This is a whole new debate that cannot be proven yet, we have no idea if a 1 bot win is possible yet.
While yes from analyzing the game it seems like it "has" to be a whole alliance effort every single match to win. I think that there will be some bots that will be unstoppable during qualifications randomly paired matches, and then they will truly be tested by the alliances they end up with and against.

you can't state one bot can't dominate yet...

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

this depends on 2 conditions as seen in the past.
The dominating robot has no defense played on them and the opposing alliance just cant play offense. The fact that only 2 trackballs are available per alliance AND they have to go around the field to hurdle again, impedes a dominating robot to score as much as they can.
What makes it harder to dominate which is evident from 2007 to now is the fact that you can only carry one gamepiece at a time (so to speak). In 06, you could load up and shoot as much as you wanted. Dominating robots could kill you by scoring in the center goal for Aim High in a matter of seconds. Team 25 won many matches in stretches of just 10 seconds or less. We had lots of experience. We played against them 5 times and saw many more of their matches both at regionals and at championship. No team can win this year in a stretch of 10 seconds or less during a match, UNLESS maybe during the hybrid period.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

What about autonomous? Let's say Team 9999 can get a lap reliably. Starting down 16 points is a HHHUUUUGGGEEEEE gap to fill. Like, huge huge. Even if they just have 3 robots driving in circles, and you have 3 somewhat decent hurdlers, it could very well be an insurmountable gap! If they are also a good hurdler, I think that's pretty hard to touch.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

Hm. Actually, by saying which robot would take the most wins, I actually meant, y'know, the most wins. If I had meant the high scoring robot, I probably would have said it... then again, knowing me, nothings certain. :D

This is a valid point, and all, but it's quite contrary to my original post. My prediction states that it will be a very practiced team, who will learn to make very few mistakes. Sure, a fluke mistake will happen every now and then, but the bots we're going to see rise to the top of the heap won't make them.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

We had that happen once in practice, but due to the way our shooter was built, it did far more damage to the trackball than to us...the bladder of the ball ended up in two pieces, while the robot was fine. Robust construction is obviously important in any game, especially one involving high speeds and potentially flying objects weighing 8 to 10 pounds.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

It's like coming into a burger store and shouting "I LIKE CHICKEN MORE!" and leaving.

That's now what this thread is about. Yes alliances are important but can an arm or shooter be the most adaptive to the game and alliances? What we are looking at is the fact that arms are slower, more ridged, and antiquated compared to shooters in this game. Putting a ball on the overpass is going to be a task that is downplayed this year, just like stacking in 2003. It's a complex task that requires too much effort, and can be taken away very quickly.

NOW, I'm not saying that an ALLIANCE full of shooters is the best way to go (that's another topic for another time/thread/talking over a beer), but for this game I see shooters being a more dominant force than arms.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

what is this stacking 2004 you speak of? i recall a game called stack attack played in 2003...

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

blast! it's changed to the right year, i was also thinking of the 2x ball in 2004 and probably had one of those ADD cross-confusion-information-exchange moment things

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

My apologies for the tone of my post. Here it is again, a little wordier and friendlier.

There are no consistent ideal scenarios. There are flukes, lucky matchups and whatnot, but it's just not feasible to count on an ideal scenario. The original argument implies an ideal scenario. Shooters will never consistently have open field in front of them, making the time difference between them and lifters negligible (assuming equal drive trains & driver capabilities). It's like racing between stop lights: it doesn't matter if you do 50mph or 30mph between them, you still get a green light on the 2nd light at the same exact time.

It will be a strategist's alliance that wins Einstein. Shooters may score the most hurdling points, but it's doubtful they will cause the greatest score differential between one alliance and their opponents: it's simply too dynamic of a game.

Tit for tat, shooters have no inherent advantage in the finals as a single robot. Everything one alliance can do the opponents can probably do too. At least in 2007, we could strategically place rings or litter home zones to consistently aid the score differential in the future; this year it's all unpredictable & moment-by-moment by which point no 1 bot can steal the show.

Even hybrid mode will be unpredictable since 3 bots all have to make the same left turn at the end of the runway, and then pray their opponents aren't in their way on the other side. There will be no "consistent" hybrid modes after the 2nd line. We can probably count on each highly-engineered alliance to get 32 pts at the end of hybrid...but then again so can the opponents. The only advantage shooters have here is that with a massive amount of luck they might make it around to hurdle in hybrid before time runs out. This will hardly be enough to weed out every other style of bot before Einstein.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

You've got that right. The arms are the chicken stores, the shooters are the burger stores, and we're all leaving our "home" store, going into the "other" store, and doing exactly what you say here, with the exception that it goes both ways (i.e., also going into a chicken store and yelling about burgers).

Come on now. Where's the sense in that? Especially when practice rounds start tomorrow? We'll find out who plays the game better soon enough. Let's let this thread die. It's served its purpose and has now been sidetracked.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

We know it will be the alliance with the best strategy that wins most of the time, but this is about the single robot out there that will win the most. Stop talking about the best alliance and talk about the best robot. You say shooters can have robots in front of them but so can arms in the exact same way. Nobody has an advantage in that situation. And I most certainly would not want to be the bot in front of any shooter. I am sure several robots will be tipped over or demolished in this manner.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

Arms just aren't going to work, don't bother attempting any sort of defense on them or anything; they've got no chance anyway ;)

Hmmm, maybe even put in your 2nd or 3rd string drivers for a match against an arm bot ;)

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

lmao.... I hope your kidding :eek:

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

Hence the winks... :rolleyes:

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

This pretty much says there is no "best" robot. There will never be a 1 vs 1 in an actual elim. match and you've just stated that it takes an alliance to win instead of a single bot. This whole point is pretty pointless at this point.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

Arms are terrible.
Shooters are terrible.
Racers are terrible.

This is the only bot that can win this year.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

Tom,
you are just terrible. :]

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

That's got arms. And several protuberances that look like they could burst a trackball in no time. Can't win the game if you're always DQ'd.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

RTFM! its liek over the wate limmit and to big!




;)

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

It may have arms, but if is more dragonzordlike and as such doesn't fall into the arm category.

Also, have you ever tried to DQ a dragon?

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

If you did, you would probably get flamed.

(sorry, I could not resist, I'll behave.)

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

That is downright hilarious.
:D

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

Yay, humor!

It's sort of impressive how big this thread got in such a short amount of time... I guess all the FIRSTers are anxious and online while they wait for the week 1 regionals!

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

So who drew the short straw to have to get the unfortunate job of having to swiss cheese that baby to make weight and when are they getting out of traction?

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

I disagree, robots will dominate, but it will have nothing to do with Arm/Shooter. I realise this thread is mostly directed to shooter / arm strategies but I don't believe you are looking at the game as a whole

Mark my words, this game will be decided by autonomous, a Robot who can knock off both balls and continue around the field, and do this Effectively and Efficiently will win 90% of their matches. Teams dominated in 06' because of autonomous, not because of the game.

If you can score ~ 32 points in auton, some of the time but around a 24-28 point average you will win, and you will dominate most of the time. The only time you'll be challenged is by teams with equivalent autons. Even after that point I believe your bot, shooter or arm could be "just average" and you'd win most of your matches.

This isn't the case usually tho, good autons usually come with good bots ( historically 233, 1114, 111 etc.. ) These type of robots, if they show up with dominating autons, will dominate this game, regardless if their an arm or shooter.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

I generally agree with this until I realize the scope of hybrid. The chances your alliance will accidentally knock off the opponent's trackball are pretty high in qualifications. I predict a couple of alliances will be made for elims solely on hybrid capabilities, but who knows how dominant they'll be.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

There is some validity to this argument, to an extent. Especially during week 1, hybrid modes that are very successful will mean very good records. But we may also see some efforts put forth from a few teams in tele-op that are quite outstanding during week 1. As the game evolves I think that the dominance of hybrid will be mitigated, if not nearly negated completely. Eventually many teams will be able to keep hybrid close, especially during the critical elimination matches, and various defensive strategies will greatly hamper less advanced hybrid routines. A four-point lead after hybrid is only a four-point lead (there's no 10-point bonus like in 2006), and while points are easier to come by in hybrid, winning hybrid mode in itself does not grant any additional bonus other than the points you scored.
While not having hybrid in any way/shape/form will most likely spell great trouble (almost guaranteed doom over the course of the whole weekend) for a team, having an outstanding hybrid will likely only take you so far.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

This thought of yours intrigues me, I guarantee you that one of these robots will be on the winning alliance. The winning alliance will have a speed demon that can get around the track with a ball. It will have a launcher bot. And it will have an arm bot. All play an important role this year. And about the beautiful robot that can do everything. There is ALWAYS a robot that can do everything and they either win the championship (My fav that could do everything was 217 in '06) Or do Very well and lose due to some circumstances.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

"Duck season!"

"Rabbit season!"

"DUCK season!"

"RABBIT season!"

"DUCK SEASON!"

"RABBIT SEASON!"

"DUCK SEASON!!!"

"RABBIT SEASON!!!"






(I couldn't help myself :))

-dave



.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

ELMER season!!!!

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

Wouldn't that be,
"DAVE season!!!!!!!!!!"? At least in this case?

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

Dave wouldnt it be more like
"duck season"
"Wabbit Season"
"duck Season"
"Wabbit Season"

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

What about:

Duck Season
Wabbit Season
Duck Season
Wabbit Season
Duck Season
WOBOT Season!

Michigan Teams should know what I mean. The WOBOT will probably be hunted this season.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

Hehe, Its WOBOT hunting season!

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

This year if you win the autonomous period it means your team has robots that move. In auton if all robots move than the matches will be close, BUT if one is sitting idle, that alliance is at a huge disadvantage. Of course teams with good autons will stand at an advantage but that advantage will be limited since there is not much "skill" involved with auton like in previous years (ex: placing a tube on a rack). That is how matches will be called, just like 2006.

# of Robots with Auton RED = # of Robots with Auton BLUE = Close match
# of Robots with Auton RED > # of Robots with Auton BLUE = Red predicted win
# of Robots with Auton RED < # of Robots with Auton BLUE = Blue predicted win

All you need in this game is a kitbot with a pole sticking up [and a remote], if you have those than you stand at an advantage. Of course there will be dominant bots on alliances that can stick out but their room for completely overtaking a match will be somewhat limited if they are down an alliance partner or something happens. This is a game that those teams without functional robots on Thursday because they can/[possibly]will end up seeded in the top eight on Saturday.

Pavan.




.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

that's very true, unless a very stable and functional claw arm with excellent drivers are present...and that's team 744 (sorry i've gotta represent) lol

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

From watching the early NJ video, shooters and scissor lifts seem pretty strong oddly enough.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

Which is funny because I cannot recall seeing many successful scissor lifts before.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

Yea, anything that could hurdle fast did the best. Tempo!

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

Scissor lifts, at least to me, seem to be an ideal lift type for this year's game.

In the past, the capability to make relatively precise adjustments has been very important, with overall lift speed often taking second place. This type of approach is an ideal candidate for an elevator of some type, or an arm with good feedback.

This year, as long as you are ABOVE the overpass, it doesn't much matter if you are a foot or two feet above, let alone the inches-precision desired by teams in the past. This seems the ideal task for a scissor lift to me (very easy to achieve fast, seamless elevation). If done right, I see scissors being a major force in the arm scene this year.

//Dillon Compton

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

After competing in Portland I can honestly say that forklifts are not the most successful loading mechanism. They get run over a lot, they can't catch a rolling ball easily, and they are unwieldy.

If you can catch the ball quickly you are more likely to succeed than if you can get it over quickly. 368 could pick up the ball in a second, it didn't matter that they took a bit longer to hurdle than the catapults.

Then again, if you can do both.... Power to ya :D