Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

Well, normally I keep my opinions to myself, but I figure it would be fun to other's opinions on this.

Here's my prediction of the winning robot (winning being winning the most matches, and winning champs): We're going to see a low, small robot that can pick up the ball and throw it. It's going to be the simplest bot imaginable; a simple single or dual pneumatic (or other fast reloading mechanical) catapult, and a kitbot drive base. It's going to be FAST, both in robot max speed and driver to robot relations. It's going to have a very small, simple setup to knock down the ball, and the rest of the match will be spent hurdling the ball over the overpass, and running laps.

What we're NOT going to see: An enormous, beautifully engineered arm that can grab from any angle, pick the ball up, and get it over the pass. However wonderful these bots may be, they're just too shaky and too precise. We're not going to see an elevator, either. Any design that involves stopping, and lifting over will be weeded out before the finals on Einstein. We're going to see some of these huge arm-bots do very well, but in the end, it's going to be those low, fast throwers who will take champs.

Any thoughts on the winning bot design?

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

that all sounds good, but i think more of a strategy of 2 arm bots and 1 shooter will win it.

shooters are nice, arms a bit slow but can be used for a lot more then just hurdling over.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

...Like? From what I've seen in videos and so on, a shooter bot can do the same thing as an arm. That is, get the ball over the overpass in a much more efficient manner, which will allow the alliance to keep moving, and to score higher.

The game is all about high speed, and I can't see a tall, arm-based robot doing very well when it comes down to the ultra efficient KISS bots that are out there.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

My Views Exactly, which is why my team built the bot it did.
we've spent time after proving each concept that went into it and rather just seeing that the concept worked, we improved upon it and we now have a robot that paints our picture of the fastest lap

a good shooter will beat a good arm any day

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

not every bot needs to be moving around the track at all times to have a very effective match with a ultimate high score. it's just how well the alliance works together.

the shooters will make up for most of the elim bots, but there will still be at least one arm on each alliance i would guess.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

Not ours D:

Definity something hardy and strong. It needs to be able to take a beating.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

wow craig...
you've clearly seen our bot!
that's really been our strategy all along, thanks for confirming it.
low, fast, and no nonsense with the overpass (no chance of clotheslining it)

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

I agree, which slightly disappoints me. The team that can fit a ton of springs low to the ground with a speedy little way of cocking the thing and a ridiculously fast drive train is going to win. The placing is negligible because it is EASILY knocked back off, and one hurdle and a lap is only 2 less points, when the time spent placing is probably equivalent.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

Yeah.

Actually, I have. But unrelated to that, when I said kitbot drive base, I meant to get across the idea of something simple, low, and light. An over complex 4 wheel ackerman crab is cool and all, but what this game needs is SPEED. So whatever the drive base will be, it will be FAST, and LIGHT.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

The thing is, after looking at all the bot pictures that have been released, the percentage of shooters is somewhere between 10 and 20 percent.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

Yeah, hence the title of the thread. We're not going to see very many of these shooters, but the ones who learn to drive are going to go very very far.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

I completely agree. I think launchers modeled after design such as 1726 and 1629 will fufill your prediction.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

I disagree. I think it all comes down to how fast robots can pick up the trackballs. Yes, the shooter bots can hurdle faster but it seems like some of them take more time to get the ball into position then it does with an arm.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

I think the winner on Einstein will be a back loading catapult and two "runners" (herding lapbots). The catapult will chill in its own home zone while the runners bring the two balls around to its back loader, followed by a quick launch over the overpass and then back at it. Every half lap would a hurdle.

I completely agree that arm/lift bots will not do as well as shooters.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

Yep.

I actually didn't really want to throw team numbers into the mix, as some people somehow find a way to take offense whenever preference is shown to one team over another... But those two teams, in my opinion, have the BEST robot that has been posted. There's probably many of that kind of robot that we have yet to see, but until the regionals, we'll never know for sure.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

I have yet to see a video of a shooter intentionally landing the ball on top of the overpass.

(Not that I happen to think it's all that important, but maybe it will turn out to be.)

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

One of the revisions for efficiency we've done on our bot was we got pickup rollers working direct drive off of globe motors, the range of places they could pick up from was amazing but once it grabbed it it took too long to come completely into the gripper, simple solution we took out a stage, now it works just as effictively just 5 times faster.

Robots that have been gone through and had every single function gone through for maximum speed will win, and maximum speed means no stopping when hurdling which throws most arms out the window.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

A. 1726 does it consistently.
B. It won't make any difference.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

When i say "good shooter" i mean good in all aspects including ball acquisition, the performance of a robot depends on all systems functions at top notch performance which is what i intended to say for both the "good shooter" and "good arm"

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

Yup. Thats it in a nut-shell. Although 118 certianly doesn't use a kit-bot frame :D

I might also add that the perfect design would use rollers/wheels to pick up the ball. Nothing beats rollers in terms of speed. Some of the before mentioned robots seem pretty fast at shooting... But lets see a video of them catching the ball again (with the exception of 1625)

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

Look at 118. They're one of the fastest ball acquirers (sp) I've seen, shooter or lift.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

Not to diss on 118, but I think their setup is too complex. This year is about speed, which means you're going to have some HARD collisions. Their turret seemed a bit wobbly in the videos they've posted, and I don't know if it can take a heavy hit.

Yeah, I agree with the rollers. However, some teams will have pneumatic or otherwise powered lifters, that can load very efficiently (faster than any arm I've seen out there).

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

THANKYOU :D

I've seen a lot of generalizations about launchers (and arm-bots) on CD, particularly this thread.

I agree that there will be launchers in the finals. I think there might be a few amazing arm bots, but for the most part, launchers will be the dominating design.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

I agree with some of the ideas you posted but not some of the others

Speed is the most important thing this competition, but I don't think the fastest bot will win.

Shooters will have a really good chance, but I don't think three shooters will be the best alliance. Although they are well designed and speedy and simple, they will need the help of the taller more precise arm bots in a tight spot.

This is simply because a well designed arm bot will have a very hard time missing a hurdler, whereas a shooter could end up hitting other bots with the ball or be slightly off with aim, etc.

If a shooter can't get the ball off, then game over. Now I know most of them can, but some can't, and some can't consiently.

If a shooter can't get to his spot to shoot from, then he can't score, from what I see, they have a loose grip on the ball and can get stripped easier then arm bots, therefore, may have a harder time getting the ball to begin with.


I think the best alliance will be a shooter an arm bot and a racer. and TEAMWORK will win the matches. Arm bots getting the ball to the shooters, racers playing pick and letting the other bots get around the opposing team, arm bots place and picking off. Teamwork, Teamwork, Teamwork, will win this game, there is no way a single bot can do it alone this year.

Good Luck everyone!

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

Well, I certainly wouldn't call your views on the predicted strength of certain designs to be cynical, although I do understand where you're coming from.

My opinion is that the simplest design is the best. Sure, you could have a fast firing catapult design, but if it's complex and potentially unreliable, I would definitely favor a simpler, more robust arm/elevator design. I believe that in this year's game, each design will have its strengths and weaknesses, and I don't really see a need to downplay any strategy or approach other teams come up with. Remember, things can quickly change during the season, and more often than not, your viewpoint on the whole subject can change drastically!

I'm not going to make any predictions yet, but I will say that your points are well reasoned. However, if I had to venture a guess as to this year's winning alliance, I believe that all robots will be fast and maneuverable. Swerve drive, I've seen, has quite a tremendous advantage over other robots, in that it makes ball manipulation incredibly simple after a successful hurdle, as well as dodging other robots who may deliberately block you from getting your trackball back (trust me, as a driver, picking up the ball after launching it over can easily take up a significant amount of your match time if you don't have a decent picker-upper). Also, I do see an advantage in catapult designs, in that they're fast. However, I have noticed that after a ball is launched, it can react quite unpredictably and can take quite a long time to settle down afterwards.

I believe that a strong robot will be maneuverable, fast, and have a quick and reliable hurdling mechanism. Based purely on intuition, I would say that the winning alliance for this year's competition will consist of two strong, maneuverable shooters, along with a fast arm robot capable of running laps, recovering trackballs, and "defending" against opponents.

But who knows? I'm sure any FIRST veteran knows that one must expect the unexpected (our team knows that all too well, by the way :yikes:), I guess we'll just have to see how the rest of the season plays out!:D

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

One huge things i've noticed with all the videos people have been putting up, very few of these videos actually show the robot completing a hurdle reacquiring the ball and completing a hurdle. i know in ours at least theres video of almost 5 complete laps from hurdle to grab to hurdle to grab and so on. showing the systems efficieny


this thread is averaging a post per minute...

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

Evidently that was their practice bot in the vid, and with 3 (maybe more) years of experience with turrets, I'm sure 118 knows how to make it secure.

Just saying this because I think that right now 118 has the best chance out of anyone to be nat'l champs.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

Our robot...can't hurdle *cringe* *cries* We're so screwed!

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

Doubt it. Like I said, I think the most successful alliances will have 1 great shooter and 2 great runners.

You have to remember theres 3 robots and 2 trackballs. Someone will be left without a ball.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

And by the way, before I forget, a fast and effective ball-knocker-offer is also a valuable asset to any alliance! After watching some of the scrimmage videos, I noticed that it took quite a long time before all balls were on the track.

Perhaps that could play another key role this year?

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

True...we have a very efficient method of knocking the ball of the shelf, so that's good :D

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

Huzzah for generalities! My opinion on the bot was VERY specific. Let me address these concerns, as I may not have been clear enough...

Speed IS the most important thing. When I say speed, I don't mean raw FPS, I mean cycle time, from gathering, to lapping, to hurdling. The teams that are able to do this fastest will win.

I believe I said something along the lines of the most practiced shooters being the ones to win. These low, fast bots that we'll see will rarely miss; in fact, they'll have the power of their shots dialed in so precisely, they'll be able to throw at just the right power to remove most possibility of the ball going out of play.

Again, in my original description, the winning bots are going to be able to knock the ball off with a simple mechanism (heck, a stick with a pneumatic attached can do this really well, why make anything more complex to do the same job?).

All of the shooter bots I've seen have a very strong grip on the ball.

Think of it from a drive perspective... You can either have around 10 functions, and have to worry about precise placement, or you can drive by at high speed, and hit the "bang" button to score. Much easier, right? So why do anything else?

One more thing... If the other alliance gets a ball up onto the overpass for the ending points, what's to stop an experienced shooter from hitting said ball with theirs, from below the overpass? It's all about practice, and being able to gather the ball FAST after shooting.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

I'm not so sure that game play is going to be the deciding factor. In the regionals it will be what wins but once you get to nationals it always seems to come down to bonus points and the on field scores are usually almost the same on both alliances. This year that is Hybrid and finishing with the ball on the rack.

The fast hurdlers will be shut down by defense in some way or another.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

They've been building those turrets since 2004. They know what they're doing.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

Yeah, forgot about that... They're probably going to get it tightened up, and then they're truly frightening.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

I have my reasons, that I'd rather not share publicly at this time, to say that, shooters will not dominate at all levels. Ultimately, at the championship level, it will require a well-oiled ALLIANCE (with shooters or arms, depending on the individual match-ups, alliance captains, and structures) to win Atlanta.
Ultimately each individual design aspect dictates certain aspects of play for each robot, and not to pick on the robots mentioned (which I do love their designs), they have some major flaws. 1629 cannot remove the ball from the overpass, which means that their alliance partners will have to do it for them, and in scenarios with only one other "hurdling" partner it may be entirely possible that that team has to do double the work, and invest double the time, removing balls. Additionally, compare this pick-up to that of a roller claw. There is a noticeable time difference, and namely, field element difference between the two (ie, niether 1625 nor 401 used the aid of the wall). This can be especially critical under real field conditions where teams will rarely get clean, unchallenged attempts to acquire the ball.
There are certain advantages to the position, height, geometry, and factors of hurdling with an arm/elevator that will become clear as the game evolves, especially in well thought-out machines. There are also disadvantages to the positions, heights, geometry, and factors of hurdling with a shooter.
That being said, I see many shooters being very competitive, but ultimately both designs will be very viable, and in the right alliances could win Atlanta very easily.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

The only issue i can see with 1726 style catapults, and im naming that as a style of catapult not that team specifically. Is the pickup mechanism 2 forks that have to be timed and lifted at just the right time isn't the most efficient controlled way to do it.

we learned that lesson last year switching from an arm that had a claw that had to be closed by the operator when the tube was in to a roller design that touched the tube and we had it.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

ALL FEAR BALLACUDA

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

Oh, I don't know, it's pretty easy when there's a button on the lifter and the pickup is automated ;)
(and the lifter mechanism is 1 piece actuated by 1 piston....)

BTW, as stated in another thread, I'm waiting for a "bounce-catch"...

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

Yeah, I agree that it takes a whole alliance to win, but my point lies elsewhere. Even though it's an alliance that wins, there is usually one robot who has the MOST wins, and the MOST points (ie, 25 in Aim High). I have a feeling that bot will be a low, fast shooter, and not a larger arm based system.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

You seem to misunderstand my points.

I have no problems with shooters, I will say they are the best bots in the competition, not taking anything away from them.

My point about speed was based upon the slowest bot on the field. Shooters can't shoot with a robot in the way, shooters can't keep running the track with a robot in the way. The fastest BALL will win. How the team moves the ball around the slower bots, around the traffic jams, around the flipped bots, is not something a shooter can do, and if it can then so be it, but from what I see, all shooters seem to have a very short gripper.

So if the shooter is slowed down by the other team, to the point of being as slow as an arm bot (I have seen some fast arms this year) then which has the better chance?

As I said, I don't think you can rely on 1 bot this year, and shooters try to get everything done on there own. (or so it seems on the videos) The lack of precision will not allow for ball passing across the middle to avoid a traffic jam in the far corner, will not allow for you to knock balls out of the other teams grippers, and other strategic moves.

As I said teamwork will win this year!

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

Now that is exactly what im talking about when i say streamlined for efficiency, exactly it.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

While many shooters do struggle with a quick pickup, look at 118 (sorry to keep using them). Add one lateral piston and you have an even quicker pickup than a roller or claw.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

Look at that backspin. Probably a sand wedge.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

Yea, I kinda exaggerated the backspin, and I also kinda suck at animating,,, ;)

But you get the idea, at least...

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

That is exactly what we did. We used a poll and a 1.5" cylinder to knock off the ball. we have a "1726 style" bot that is honestly my favorite of the 4 years I've been on the team. I am hoping more bots of this style pop up.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W10F7X8a_LE

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

Put some grooves (like a golf club) and grip material on your catapult arm (1726) and see what happens.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

I get what you're saying, but I'm saying that ultimately we won't be able to call that yet. It's going to depend on each robots alliance composition over the course of the year, as I don't think any design will have the tools to dominate every single match in this game. 2008 is a much more alliance structured game than 2006 or 2007, and it will be very very difficult for individual robots to dominate once teams realize techniques they can use to stop them. They only way I see one team dominating every match is if 148/1519 and their super-lapping friends end up being correct and laps ultimately make the difference more than anything else (which is yet to be seen, and I definitely have my opinions on this matter). Otherwise as close as we'll get to seeing a robot dominate are the robots that can combine the strengths of each system while minimizing the weaknesses. So far there has been only a couple teams that have shown me that they have enough advantages to even have the possible potential to take over a match, and none have enough to guarantee it for me.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

we can do it... i'll post a video if we actually manage to pull it off

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

Here's one:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JCzQ9kYlWWA

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

At the 1:21 mark of this video, we show one of our drivers attempting to do just that. After a few tries, they manage to successfully launch for placement 4 out of every 5 times.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

yeah, but you first have to find the right position... fortunately we can do it with a simple rangefinder, or maybe with something even simpler... the flag! 51" flag rule doesn't have to be a drag, it can be a design feature!

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

The thing about shooters is that they have to make sure they are in just the right spot, just like everybody else, right? They are usually faster, in the actual act, but they also have a harder time chasing after the ball afterward, and usually have a harder time grabbing. Mostly - as you imply - they generally can't place, and that can mean big points at the end.

But your best point is what everybody else has missed -the importance of Hybrid Period. The best teams may score 1/3 to 1/2 of their points in that period!!

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

Drive around the field a few times, then do it.

Rinse. Repeat.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

I think you are overestimating the importance of placing the ball at the end. If you place it and drive under the overpass you only get 4 more points than if you hurdle and drive under.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

Shooter's will have just as hard a time if not easier a time of tracking down the ball than arm-bots. The grabbing mechanism has almost nothing to do with the design. I've seen tons of good grabbers on shooters and arm-bots alike, and several mediocre ones.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

I think there are some arm bots that will be very useful alliance partners.

I have seen several arm bots that can pick up the ball at full speed (one was 17 fps) without having to stop (won't divulge team numbers as these videos haven't been posted online yet, well 973 is one, but that's my team...). Now, they may not hurdle as fast, but they are definitely better at picking up the ball than any shooter bot I've seen videos of (1625 is pretty close though).

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

exactly another insight that influenced our bot, it doesn't make too much sense to sacrifice efficiency elsewhere in the match for something that'll get you 4 more points. When by having a faster design you'll easily outweigh that 4 point gap

woot lol

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

Well, we have driven around the field a few times and landed it on the overpass (probably by virtue of sheer luck, though), but it certainly is possible. However, I don't think it's really worth the risk of firing to late/early and then end up not being able to clear the overpass or having the ball bounce off the overpass and hit your robot.

I'm sure with practice, people may be able to do it on the move. But until then, I don't think that the extra 4 points is really worth risking a hurdle over. Plus, I'm sure it would be easy for another team to knock the trackball off, anyway, so again, I think that an endgame hurdle would be the most effective idea for a shooter to implement here.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

But if you find yourself in the other alliance's home stretch as time is expiring, and you manage to put the ball on top, you get 12 points more than if you didn't.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

Not if you're in the Opposition Lane!!

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

That's true in some situations, but not all. Hurdles only count over your half of the overpass, placing counts on both halves. There are going to be scenarios where you have the time to hurdle on your half, drive halfway around the track, and place (where you wouldn't have time for another full lap to hurdle). That's a 12 point difference right there, rather than just 4.

edit: Optimizer just beat me.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

That's a pretty good point. I think it's open to interpretation, though, because a shooter robot could potentially get one more hurdle per match than a standard arm robot (that is, if it's fast enough), so the bonus may or may not play a significant role at the end of of a match if the shooter is quicker overall.

This could potentially be an important quality for a robot to have, as a last minute bonus on the opposing stretch of the track could mean the match for a certain alliance.

Ah, well, I guess practice day is going to be devoted to placing a ball on the overpass!

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

when your stuck in that position yes you are at a slight disadvantage to an arm bot, yet you still have options, such as knock off the opponents ball if it happens to be there, making up 12 points essentially. I know our bot and the robotnauts can do a well aimed diagonal shot to complete a hurdle

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

Let's just say I'm glad my team won't be up against #1625! Yikes!! :eek:

But the main point is that Hybrid Period may be critical. It's potential importance is apparently new, and may catch many veteran teams off-guard.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

... and GaryVoshol beat me! :)

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

With a well design ball knocker offer, it would be unnecessary to waste time and energy launching to knock off. It would be much more effective to try to land the ball on the overpass then knock down opponents' balls with the same mechanism used to knock them off at the beginning.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

I will have to disagree with your generalizations of a shooter. There will be shooters that can launch from at least half of their home zones using a variable launch angle. There will also be shooters that can launch over the center divider. Please explain why a shooter will have a more difficult time grabbing the trackball after a hurdle. In practice, after a shooter hurdles, the trackball typically ends up against or near the opposite wall where it is very easy to pick up. There will be shooters that can grab a trackball as fast as any armbot and at the same time have the trackball loaded for another hurdle. Granted, most shooters will not be able to place, however, there will be shooters that can remove the trackball very affectively. I do agree that Hybrid will eventually produce at least a third of an alliances points.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

Or, what would be an even more effective (albeit amazing) idea would be to launch your ball into an opponent's trackball (which is sitting atop the overpass) in such a way that your ball lands on the overpass after it knocks off the opponent's ball! Instant 24 point difference!

Forgive my musings. It's late, and I've had a bit too much Dr. Pepper today...

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

I have read pretty much all of the post on this thread and I am impressed with many of the arguments

Just so you know where I am comming from our robot is a shooter. It however does not use pnematics to "shoot" "launch" the ball. Go to www.frc272.com and maybe you can figure out how we do it. Look under "We are LC" "2008 season". Anyway our robot also employes an alternate aparatus that can effectivelly remove the ball from the "monkey bars" "rack" whatever it is you call it.

However I am not at all saying this is the way to do it. We just like that fact that we can move on the fly and shoot. Also since we can remove the ball from the rack using an alternate aparatus we like it. Anyway

I have been lookin at a whole lot of video of other robots and I believe it just comes down to speed, quickness of picking up the ball and if you are a lifter doing it as fast as possible. If you have all of that I do not care how you do it you are getting it done fast and often and probably can keep up with anyone.

I also read some threads about it is easy to block a "shooter" "launcher" and while I would agree with that. I would recommend to teams you avoid it. Just as an example I had one of those moments and walked in front of our completed robot just as it fired. That ball almost took my head off. In retrospect it was very funny but the forces of that fire took a 210 pound man and put him on the floor. I just think if a lifter decided to get in the way and took a shoot either the robot may sustain fatal damage our it might be out for the count if you catch my drift.

Any who I think in the end if you built a great robot no matter how it scores if it is quick, accurate and efficient. Oh and a killer autonomous/hybrid would not hurt it really wont matter.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

It looks to me like the 1726 robot will hurdle reliably if we are moving fast, and will be able to place the ball reasonably reliably if we stop before shooting.

I expect several teams with shooters will discover this is the case.

Now, about that backspin generator....(oops! that's a secret, isn't it?)

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

In my view, good shooters will dominate good arms. Good arms will dominate bad shooters. Bad arms will just lose. I also think that we will see more good arms than good shooters (teams have more experience with arms), so good arms will appear to be the winning design for many competitions. In other words, I agree with Craig's basic idea, but disagree in practice.

As for placing capability, I feel that it will win many qualification matches, especially early on, but not as many elimination matches. Kind of like dumpers in '06; a good dumper won lots of qualifiers, but they had to find a good shooter or two to ally with for elims or else they were toast. In contrast, I think at least one divisional final, and possibly the whole championship, will be decided by placing (like the balls in 2002). At that level, both alliances are capable of scoring ludicrous amounts of points - it'll be that small little boost that pushes one to beat the other.

*chuckle* Naturally, since he is optimized.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

Hurdling doesn't seem to be the hard part. From scrimmage videos so far, picking up seems to be the worst, just because of the traffic jams and balls everywhere. A robot that can quickly get a hold of the ball and into its possession will waste less time there, and be able to get to hurdling faster. For hurdling, the teams that I think will do well are the ones that get the ball just over the overpass. The ones that launch and shoot it way over will waste time having to chase after that ball or the other ball.

I agree that cycle time will be important. Hurdling fast, but pick up slowly doesn't have an advantage to a robot that can pick up quickly, but just hurdle at a medium rate.

No one still really doesn't know what a true winning strategy is because we don't have many repeated 3v3 matches to see what works best. Saying that one robot on an alliance will win is probably just your own preference for a winning design. Also who knows, it may be like last year where ramps became biggest part. It may turn out that no one can reliably pick up and hurdle balls with 5 other robots trying to get around the field.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

I think the chaos will be cause for much flipping, flimsy arms and overly precise arms won't help either, but as said above, we have no hard evidence except for scrimmage videos...this is all speculation. I'm not sure many people would have called that the ramps would decide the game last year. Who knows...

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

I just read all of this and see a general pattern. Generalizing shooters, arms, and racer bots. We forget that each team will have diffferent degrees as to how effective they will be with their respective designs.
Driving and practice makes a big difference. How many times have I seen the Poofs win regional competitions simply because they were the best drivers out there, making very few mistakes, working with great efficiency. They maximized the capabilities of their robots consistently, regional to regional, year to year. That's what impresses me the most about them.

How teams setup controls of their robots are key too?
I had two sets of drivers practice with our robot and it was like night and day. One group had me thinking that our robot couldn't even hurdle. The other group allowed me to sleep that night, proving that our design worked.:D

Is it safe to say that every year, the best designed robots and best alliances dont always win, for one reason or another.
I still cant believe the Poofs havent won a world championship yet????

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

hey guys i understand that shooters are great.

But who gets the ball off, the arms or lifts.
Who puts it back on? launchers are built on the fact that someone takes the ball off for you. Giys check out 1323's bot and that arm can go up and down in 2 seconds (help of gas springs). It has wheels to suck it in. I think the arms are ideal this year, not to diss the launchers. Also the arms can do every function of this years game

-rc

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

Several arm robots this year have shown completely seperate mechanisms for ball removal when it comes to the rack. It goes without saying that shooters in general will have a more interesting time of replacing the ball upon the rack, if they decide to travel that road. However there will be some shooters that will be able to reliably place back on the rack for end game bonuses. I have enough faith in first teams to believe that. There is no reason why a shooter should be denied the thought of being able to complete every function of this years game.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

You are assuming that everything has to be done by one mechanism. We can get the ball off and ready to launch very easily, and much quicker than 2 seconds. Arms can do every function of the game, but so can a well designed launcher.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

I had seen your video, and really look forward to seeing you folks @ FLR! :]

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

... and launchers can't?

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

I had posted something back a ways about 118 having a wobbly turret.... Scratch that. I've been corrected. After seeing what I just saw, 118 is the definition of what I think will win this year.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

Didn't I throw enough "usually"s in there? OK, nobody really knows, do they?

Anyway, to answer your demand, I draw from your own assertions for an example. If you hurdle over the lane divider, then you would have to go half-way around the field to go collect it, wouldn't you? Don't expect it to still be waiting there for you, BTW.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

Oh, but there are plenty more than three functions in this game... ;)
I really feel that the bottom line is that neither shooters nor arms/lifts are better, they are both just different solutions with different advantages and disadvantages. Each will have distinct roles in alliances, and distinct alliances that compliment their abilities well. Each will have different defensive strategies to limit them.
Ultimately, each regional and each weekend will have different teams and different designs prosper. As the game-play evolves over the course of the season, different aspects will become more or less important. Ultimately we won't know the answer to this question until after the Championship event, if it ever gets truly settled.
If any one team has the ability to take over matches individually, it will be the team that best uses their strengths to play to attributes the game needs, while minimizing the weaknesses. That is, the team that harnessing the best strengths of needed designs, and cuts out as many of the flaws as possible. So far there have been three different teams who have posted online that I consider potential candidates to "take over this game", but it's highly unlikely that any of them will.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

Well, this thread is certainly getting lots of action, isn't it.

First of all, it would be nice if 1726 and 118 did well at the Championships this year, as they have been real leaders in being open with their designs. They could have very easily chosen to not post their designs and results until ship date, but I think what they posted inspired a lot of teams to improve their own designs and did so with sufficient time left in build to make a difference. The fact that those two very effective designs are referenced so often is proof, I believe, of the inspiration they have provided other teams.

Secondly, there are a LOT of teams who we haven't seen ANYTHING from. 1114 is as quiet as a mouse (Or a chicken, as the case may be), and there are many other perennial favourites who may have come up with something... unexpected.... not to mention the annual crop of rookies and lesser known teams who will have some unique designs. With 1,500 teams, surely there is one that has thought outside the box and is reading this thread thinking "lifters, launchers... lifters, launchers... HA!" and keeping their mouths shut until regional time.

For instance, what if a robot unfolded an 80" long "shield", lifted it 8'-10' in the air, and planted itself firmly behind the opponents overpass, rolling side to side so that any hurdling attempt that hit it just bounced backwards and never made it over the line? All of a sudden the launchers aren't looking so good, are they? Neither are the lifters, for that matter...

Finally, I do get the feeling that this year's game levels the playing field somewhat between the "superstar" teams and the "grinders". In past years there have been some amazing robots that could win matches all by themselves, with minimal help from their partners, as evidenced by perfect 8-0 (or near perfect 7-1) records in qualifying. I think that is going to be much harder to do this year as the nature of the game may reduce (but not eliminate) the capability gap between the top tier robots and those of us who chase them.

So I'm going to suggest that the whole premise of the thread is just a bit off-kilter. The championship is not going to be determined by any particular design (yes, it will be a good design, and a sturdy design, but that is hardly news) but rather by the team that chooses their partners most wisely and co-operates most effectively. And that is why I love FIRST... it really isn't about the robots, is it?

Jason

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

Wow! Spoken like a true FIRST enthusiast.
The truth is we have nothing better to do right now because we are anxiously waiting for regionals to begin. Then, we can talk about week 1 and the strategies that took place. :D :D :D

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

Suppose we are all alone in the quadrant before our home zone and we are ready to hurdle. Sitting right in front of us with no one around is another trackball. Why not launch over the lane divider and quickly grab the other trackball? Suppose it is the last few seconds of the match and either we do not have the time to get back to our home zone, or there is a massive pileup preventing us from getting all the way around. Sounds like a good time to launch. My point is that if we chose to launch over the lane divider, we would probably not be concerned with getting the trackball back. I doubt if this will ever happen during a match except for the massive pileup possibility.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

Very good points, Jason. In addition, with 3-team alliances retained, we have the "rising tide lifts all boats" effect in play again. A "grinder", a well-built and well executing but not particularly exciting bot, may benefit from good alliance partners in regional qualifying matches resulting in high placement in the standings. Sometimes that even happens to a "slogger", a robot with no particular abilities except to show up and play the game. The points those robots happen to score with their more "superstar" partners serves to put them into a position of being an alliance captain. (And if a "slogger" happens to be first seeded, it really makes the alliance selection interesting, as other picking teams have to decide whether to accept an invitation or form their own alliance.)

Emphasis mine - that's really the most important part of a successful alliance, isn't it?

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

You can have the fastest, lowest, best launcher in the game and still get out played with strategy. Smart alliance captains are most important in my opinion. They work with the resources they have to generate results.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

Thank you!!! This is what I have been trying to say! No single design will win everything this year (unlike the hybrids last year) and it will end up coming down to how well you can drive, and how well you work in an alliance. Stratagy will win for sure this year!

EDIT: EXACTLY!

EDIT EDIT: Now everyone is one the same page! Glad some people can put things into words wayy better than I can :P

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

I agree. Kevin was just pointing out to those folks who seem to think a shooter can't do anything but hurdle, that there are indeed shooters that can do everything needed to play the game. Being able to shoot doesn't prevent a robot from being able to knock the ball off, pick it up effectively, or place it.

6 robots, 4 balls, alliances made up of robots with quite different abilities and teams with widely varying levels of experience....it all adds up to an interesting and exciting game this year!

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

I found the prediction I was looking for. It was one of Nostradarmous’s quatrains:

Nations tremble as the six tribes clash!
The hourglass runs out on the inert sphere, as three tribes clutch in vain.
The children from the clan of the wooden shoe steal it away in haste.
Victory is seized as the ramparts are breached in rapid succession!

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

You speak of ONE bot of the 3 in the winning alliance. You speak of ONE scenario, an ideal scenario, where everything moves perfectly, no one has figured out nuance-style or guerilla-warfare defenses, and no one has figured out high-scoring combos that utilize several aspects of the game that shooters have difficulty with. Well lemme tell ya, I have and our drivers will be prepared. We have an elevator. We have forklifts and a curved "pouncing' bar that captures and kicks the ball. You didn't design it, but we did, with several considerations. Many other teams have similar but different designs. Just because you don't see the light doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

The good news is, I won't tell you you're wrong; the competitions in the coming weeks probably will.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

This thread is based on a prediction, and I think it is wrong of you to call somebody close-minded for making a prediction and stating their own opinion. This thread is also not about the alliance that will do the best and win nationals, it is about the single robot that will do the best in the competition.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

What this thread was about was not "which" alliance will win the most, it was a prediction as to what robot style would lead the field, as 25 did in 2006, and many bots did last year. He's predicting the bot style that will lead almost any alliance it ends up in qualification or elimination, to victory.

thats what this thread is about

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

We designed out robot so we are able to block shooters. I think that will give us a slight advantage over other arm bots.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

An opinion is worth it's weight. Nothing more.
In a couple of days we'll find out how things really go down and by the end of the season that will be proven to be a myth as well as teams change their strategies by the championship. And the game will be played completely different from week 1.
It happens all the time in FIRST.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

Aye, this thread is about opinions. My post is not meant to be derrogatory. I tried to write it in the same tone as the original; my apologies for not keeping particular parts of my opinion to myself, which will be edited.

My post stated a direct opinionated argument against his opinion. The original opinion was precisely about what winning alliance we'll see on Einstein in Atlanta, and it was all stated very clearly and directly: all bots other than shooters bot will be "weeded out" before Einstein. It seems very based upon what's been seen in videos, whereas many teams who have succeeded with spectacular elevators/arms may not have had time or resources to take a video. If you can't imagine a 'spectacular' lift, well, I can't exactly help you there. However, maybe the videos in later weeks can.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

Or, they choose not to make a video or post pictures at all. Some teams are like that--secrecy until the end, unless all chance of secrecy is gone. So you don't know what is coming at you until it arrives.

I think this whole discussion is moot, as we'll find out the Week 1 standards starting Thursday, Week 2 standards the next Thursday, Week 3 standards... you get the picture. Strategies change week to week or even day to day/match to match.

The only prediction I'm going to make is that both shooters and arms will be valuable, and both will be in the finals at virtually every event.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

This and other threads have been reduced to:.. "shooters are better" ..."no, arms are better"..."no shooters".

Lets just wait two days and see what happens.

Re: Predictions: A cynical view of reality
 

A good launching robot (especially one that launches on-the-fly) is faster at scoring than a good elevator. At the very least the elevator has to stop at the overpass and retract their elevator to go under*. A launcher doesn't have to waste that time. So, I don't see how an elevator can possibly beat a launcher when it comes to the speed of actually scoring. You can have a better mechanism for pickup, but still, I'm guess that they're are launching robots that have similar or better pickup styles.

And sure, you can play guerilla warfare with the ball (as I too have thought about this, and this'll be where the game gets nasty) but so can the launcher, who when it comes down to it is faster at scoring.

However, as is always true there will be a great range of launchers (from very good to very bad) just as there will be in armed robots (from very good to very bad). However, if we're playing in a perfect world (and Einstein is second only to IRI in terms of perfection) then I can't see how an elevator can outscore a launcher. And as I said, you can play tricks with the ball. There are plenty of tricks to be played. But if you can use them, so can the other guy. And once you've used them once, the cat's out of the bag.

However, if you ask me, I can define the make or break aspect of week 1 in a single word Autonomous. If you get a breakaway score then, no one is going to catch up to you. And yes, I meant autonomous. I think relying on Hybrid is simply too risky.

*It's been brought to my attention that at least one team doesn't need to retract, and there are probably others of you out there. But they aren't anywheres near the general case. While the Killer Bee's have done it, and maybe a few other teams worldwide, launching on the fly seems to be far more common place.