Chief Delphi - Predictions Week 1: First lap for Overdrive

Looking Forward is back for 2008, under some new management. Many thanks to Joe Johnson, who last year (starting in week 3) made some bold weekly traditions about how the game was going to play out. The column is back for 2008, with even more flavor and appeal for Overdrive.
Well, onto the PREDICTIONS:

Week 1 has five regionals in store for us:

New Jersey
St. Louis
Oregon
Midwest
New Hampshire

Nobody has ever seen a real match played yet, and most robots still remain under wraps. With that much ambiguity and mystery still surrounding the gameplay, predicting the style of play is every bit as hard as predicting the winners. Given that many robots have yet to be revealed, some of the predictions are based on speculation and team history, but those will be as few as possible.
Week 1 is perennially plagued with penalties, broken robots, and field malfunctions, and as much as I'd love to say that this year will be different... it won't. Penalties will flip the outcome of many matches, and hamper many defensive efforts (accidental or incidental), especially those of the more "traditional" sense of defense. Many teams that planned on hurdling will be so ineffective at it that they will be reduced to herding and lap running for their main source of points (or will be too stubborn to admit it would be a better decision for them).
All is not lost though, we will some high scores out of more than a handful of teams. Many top notch competitors debut in week 1, and should set an interesting benchmark for following weeks. Look for some particularly valiant efforts from some teams to inspire more teams to attempt defensive maneuvers as Saturday begins and into Week 2. Given the fact that we're not sure what type of defense will be effective yet, and more importantly, the teams attempting defense don't know what's effective yet, watch for some offensive juggernauts to exploit lackluster attempts to stop them.

OREGON:
With 55 teams, Oregon should hopefully muster some depth to the field, and enough teams will likely to working to field exciting and competitive elimination matches. Twenty of those teams are rookies or sophomores though, and that could leave an impressive dent in qualification round scores.
1595 is little known outside of the Pacific Northwest, but this Spokane team means business. They won Oregon their rookie year in 2005, and in just their sophomore effort in 2006 they produced custom Mecanum wheels, which evolved into their drive for both Aim High and Rack 'n Roll. In '07 they managed to earn the #7 ranking in the highly competitive Galileo division, and captained their alliance past both the Technokats and Thunder Chickens, and took the eventual division winners to the 3rd match of the semi-finals. While we haven't seen anything from them yet in 2008, but I expect them to return with an even better iteration of their mecanum system and a hurdle their way into contention. Expect these dragons to make an impact in Oregon.

I don't think I can explain this next team much better than this tipster:

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100: The oldest team on the West Coast, the Wildhats join the list of teams looking to build upon a very successful 2007 FIRST Robotics season. They began their season in San Jose, where they received the GM Industrial Design award to go along with their 6-0-0 qualification match record and number one seen. They continued to Davis, where they took home the regional winners banner and Motorola Quality award, to go along with another number one seed and a 9-1-0 qualifications record. This year, the WildHats built Ballfrog, a very impressive looking elavator-based machine, that seems poised to compete at Portland.

100 looks to be a solid entry into the Overdrive challenge. Their release from their roller claw may be a bit slow, especially when compared against many of the other roller claws we've seen, but it shouldn't be a factor large enough to completely rule them out of contention. Ballfrog will likely be a factor in the event, but it will have to have some help from partners if it wants to take home gold.

488 is looking for their first regional win, and will attempt to bring it home with "The Ocho". An impressive hybrid routine is their biggest achievement so far. It's not the same as what others have shown in hybrid (ie 217, 1625, and a few others), but it's well above what many week 1 machines will be capable of doing. 488s hurdling method is unconventional, to say the least, and takes a little bit longer than I think a regional champion's will (at least in terms of the leading bot on the alliance), but it's once again not too shabby. Their pick-up speed and ability to control the ball will likely make or break this robot, but if it turns out positive, they could be among the top few alliances left on Saturday afternoon.

Error Code 1425 recently unveiled a retrofitted practice bot, along with some sweet rims that will adorn their real robot. Their overall design is popular this year, cut from the same stock as 384/1086, 1629, 1724 and many others. They will be among the first to give this low-profile, forked pick-up design to the real test. If their manufacturing is up to the standards of their past few years (and their wheels), it likely won't be doomed by mechanical failure and won't have nearly as many issues as most week 1 bots. If all goes down like I think it will, Error Code will have little error at emerging on top of the PNW regional.

NEW JERSEY:
Continuing the trend of huge week 1 regionals, Trenton is sporting a whopping 63 teams this year. Unlike PNW though, only four of this massive field are rookies, although many are still fairly young teams. This field should be deeper than most other events this weekend, and a more well-rounded competition and generally higher scores should [hopefully] result.

I'll talk about Raider Robotix first, because I know that's what everyone wants to hear about. 25 has won the past two NJ regionals, and made the regional finals in their past five regional competitions. People who have seen the machine tell me that 25 is impressive again this year as well.
...but 25s strategy during this stretch of success has revolved around highly physical play, brutally aggressive driving, and attracting defense. How much of that will be allowed this year, or even a valid strategy is yet to be seen. 25s manipulators have never been their strong point, nor is their drivetrain designed around maneuverability. Are they willing to break their traditions to play Overdrive? How well will they do if they don't?
Whatever 25s result, I'm sure it will still be among the top contenders in Trenton, but I don't know if it will be enough for them to go home with a banner.

Somehow, while 25 garners tons of attention for two straight NJ victories, 103's three consecutive always gets mentioned as an afterthought. The Cybersonics were never captain in these winning alliances, but they were picked 1st over-all in 06 and 07, and 2nd overall in 05. They have yet to post their design, but they did post a beautiful teaser of their inventor submission, which does seem to inform us that they will be using their 25-inspired drivetrain again. The Cybersonics designs have typically edged on the side of maneuverability on finesse, which has led to some trouble if they became the focus on defense in previous years. This year seems to favor finesse more so than previous years, which can play right into the hands of 103. They should be among the top competitors in NJ, and have at least as good odds as anyone else to take home gold.

While 103 and 25 teamed up for two straight NJ wins in 2006 and 2007, 103 and 1279 paired up in 2005 and 2006 to win the very same regional. Cold Fusion's wins were far from flukes as well, finishing as a top two seed at both of their regionals in '05. They had a off-year in 2007, but their video makes it seem that they will be competitive once again in Overdrive. They have an ability that few teams have yet to show, being able to not only remove, but actually acquire the ball during hybrid. Additionally their blend of a lift and shooting systems means that they don't have to waste time retracting their lift to travel under the overpass, nor do they have to chase the ball very far. Like many others, acquisition and ball control will likely make or break their ultimate success, especially given that they have to turn around from their hurdling position to pick up the ball. I don't know if they will be able to carry an alliance, but they will certainly be among the top-level of hurdlers at the regional, and I don't see Immaculata still being available after the first round of alliance selections.

1155 has many of the same qualities as 1279, including being able to catch the ball in hybrid. 1155's catch doesn't seem to be as reliable though, and their videos at least showed their drivers having to correct for the ball not settling properly in their claw. Additionally they throw the ball much further/higher (or minimally it bounces more), which might mean having to chase it more on the other side, without saving much/any time on the hurdle itself. Acquisition time will be even more important to 1155 given their throwing distance. The Bronx Science Sciborgs will likely be a key contributer to their elimination alliance, and could win some hardware with the right partners.
(Sadly, apparently 1155 isn't going to NJ)

Several other annual factors have yet to post photos/video. 869 continually puts out competitive bots, and should be playing saturday afternoon. 11's teaser suggests that they are most likely using a lift. 1403 and 75 typically put up pretty good shows in Jersey as well.

BAE NEW HAMPSHIRE:
2008 will offer a challenge to BAE's reputation of granite defense. A number of traditional New England powers will make their debut here as well, meaning for the possibility of some really exciting matches. This is also arguably the deepest field all the way through, with more than 50% of the teams under team #1000. We should see some very entertaining matches coming out of New Hampshire, and despite the reputation for hard defense and tiny scores, offense will likely be the deciding factor in both matches and the regional. Manchester may also be the most wide-open to take home the crown, with several teams seemingly about the same level, each with a decent shot at the title. The championship will definitely be won Saturday at noon, during alliance selection.

Nobody question's Buzz's ability to win. Even when you doubt their robots, they find a way to come out on top. 175 is unquestionably a winner.
This from a tipster sums it up pretty well:

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175- I am not sure that there is a team in New England with more hardware then 175. 2002 was the last year they didn't win either a Champion or Finalist award, of course they won Championship Chairman's that year so I am sure they don't mind too much. 175 has taken awards home every year since 1996.

Did we mention '96 was their rookie year? We don't know what Buzz is doing yet, only that it will likely still be competing late into Saturday afternoon.

Rhode Island's own Rhode Warriors return to BAE for the first time since they won it in 2005. The masters of the roller claw, 121, look to replicate that effort again here in 2008. They were the first to post a video of a roller claw in action this year, and likely inspired more than a few of the herd of roller claws that we see now. The question is how does it stack up against the other roller claws? The extra second to spin around to place and back around to reclaim the trackball is a minor disadvantage, but likely won't add up to much. They managed to do very well at Quincy, so that's a promising start. 121 will be among the top few hurdlers, and is one of my favorites to bring back a banner.

126 will be a force to be reckoned with in NH this weekend too. Their prototype bot won Suffield, so if all goes according to plan, their real bot will do even better in Manchster. Their hybrid was a key point to their victories, and the ability to knock down the ball and produce a few lines should be among the elite at BAE. Gael Force will be gone before the second half of the first round of alliance selections, and will likely make a dent in the elimination rounds as well.

Trinity looks to join the fraternity of regional champions this weekend as well, and although CD has yet to see their bot, it will likely be a fierce competitor. 40 hopes that they can finally bring home a banner to add to the three finalist trophies they've picked up over the past four years.

The reigning FIRST champs have only provided us with a pair of teasers about their robot so far, but they will likely be in the mix for the BAE crown as well.190 looks to add another gold, but the path won't be easy (then again, neither was the road to Einstein). The part of their manipulator we've seen likely isn't the main element to their acquisition (I'm willing to bet the bottom is a fork-like design), but it does suggest that they will be an arm or lift based hurdling machine. Their drive is certainly unique and innovative at the least, and most likely effective. If their manipulator works like I think it does, it should be somewhat easier for them to acquire balls than other forked designs, but the release for the hurdle will be the trick, and will likely be the critical factor to their success. Of course there's always the potential they won't hurdle at all....

Speaking of teams that don't hurdle, 1519 has blazed out of the gates. 1519 doesn't hurdle, but that doesn't mean that they're entirely out of contention though. While it isn't yet clear exactly what the role of lap bots will be, Suffield did show us that they can have an impact, especially when put up against less-than-effective hurdling machines. Especially when both alliances have lap-bots, pure speed around the track will be critical, and 1519 has an abundance of speed (approximately 6 second laps on an open field). Watch for them to make an impact in the qualification rounds, that might put them in an alliance captain slot. If they're not captain, look for them to be an early 2nd round selection in this likely very deep regional. If they do make captain, they'll have to be very resourceful with their picks if they want to make it far though.

And one more interesting tidbit from a source:

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121 v. 126: An old rivalry renewed. Since winning New Hampshire together in 2005 these two teams have met twice in elimination rounds, both going to three matches. In 2006 121 beat 126 in the semifinals in Boston and went on to win the regional. In 2007 126 beat 121 in the Finals in Boston in a match that included 121 tipping 126.

ST. LOUIS:
The elite teams in this 45 team event will have little trouble at making even a Crusading French King proud. Expect a lot of blazingly fast play as teams try to hang around with some of the fast top-notch teams, and an abundance of mistakes from those attempting to play at a higher tempo than they should. The upper crust of this regional should be very competitive, but this event also seems to have the clearest favorite of any week 1 regional. Even with that favorite, there's enough other talent here for a well-structured three team alliance to beat any opponent when the time comes... just as happened in the finals here last year.

It's hard to call a trip to the regional finals and a trip to the Galileo eliminations an off-year, but after back-to-back trips to Einstein and a Championship, that's exactly what 2007 was for the Thunderchickens. 217 took massive strides to avoid repeating that in 2008, unveiling a beautiful design reminiscent of their lethal 2005 bot. While we have yet to see it hurdle, we've seen it's effective autonomous/hybrid mode, and its blazing speed. It's manipulator is designed intentionally to pick-up balls in less than ideal states (ie, bouncing), an advantage few other machines share. As a result, their acquisition time will be among the top in all of FIRST. If their hurdling is as clean and quick as the rest of their machine, 217 will show quickly how deadly they can be. Don't let tomorrow's results on the practice field deter you (Sorry Paul), the T-Chicks will be playing in the final match, and I'd pick them to win it.

45 is one of the most storied teams in FIRST, and after a resurgence in 2007, they want to keep the momentum rolling in Overdrive. The Techokitties roller claw machine has been described as a blast to watch hurdle, and will be a top competitor in Missouri. While it's most likely a 6WD powered by a pair of AM shifters, a mecanum wheeled variant has been spotted as well. How well can the Technokats separate themselves from other roller claws will be the main question. I expect 45 to make a serious impact, but will likely need a little help to top the Chickens two years in a row in the finals.
If they reunite their Galileo alliance with the Chickens, it could be more than scary though...

85 will be a team to watch out for as well. As we haven't seen their bot yet, they could seriously challenge the Chickens if Built on Brains plays their hand right. This tip got it right:

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85-BOB is one of the most consistently good teams in FIRST. They have great mentors and great students, and they will surely be picking in the top 8 like usual.

Somehow 1444 seems to be getting lost in this mix again. They hung with 148 up at the top of the rankings here last year, and paired up with 45 to top the 148/217 combo. That wasn't even their first time winning St. Louis though, they won in 2005 as well. 1444 has the potential to be a key player as well.

The Martians are rolling down the Mississippi this weekend from Michigan as well. 494 and 70 unveiled a pair of shiny roller clawed machines that will likely be able to put up some points. 494 has made it to the finals at their first competition for a staggering five straight years. Despite this, (with the notable exception of 2006) the Martians have had a very aggressive and defensive style in their design, driving, and gameplay. They've been attempting to move away from this during the past few years, and managed to play some great offense in Aim High. Can they resurrect their offensive prowess of 2006, or will they be stuck in the same boat that made me uneasy about 25?

The Techhounds are known for their innovative and unique designs that stem from their philosophy of trying to do one aspect of the game better than any other team in FIRST. There are a few aspects in this game that they could attempt, but regardless of whichever avenue they select they will be very specialized, and likely very good at it. If one of the better alliance captains needs their attribute, watch out. 868 could make a big impact on th eliminations in the right alliance.

And now the team you've all been waiting for...148. Due to the influx of FIRST celebs and having one of the top scoring bots of 2007, the Robowranglers have quickly vaulted from relative obscurity to international phenom. Don't get me wrong, 148 was great before, especially at the Texas regional, and has a FIRST Championship on their trophy rack from all the way back in 1993. Tumbleweed set CD on fire when the pictures hit though. In a bold move they decided to forsake any method of manipulating the ball in order to build a tiny speed machine. This three-wheeled swerve in an engineering beauty, but the opinions of their strategy vary widely. Most seem to believe that 148 will either be contending for the top spot or will be doomed to failure. The truth more than likely lies somewhere between those two extrema, where (similar to 1519) they will have to be very creative with their picks to win if they emerge as a captain, and otherwise will likely get picked in the late first or early second round. While they may be blazingly fast (6.1 second laps in open-field hybrid testing) and agile, their inability to manipulate the ball in any form may cost them, especially if alliance captains want some form of defensive presence from a non-hurdling bot.

MIDWEST:

And now for the showcase gem of the opening weekend, Chicago. Need I waste your time predicting the gameplay here? Many high scores and lots of blow-outs. 16, 33, 71, 111, 503, 1024, 1038, and 1625 all coming out to play the first weekend!?! Sadly though, after the elite teams, the skill level quickly declines, as more than a third of the teams attending are only competing for the first or second year.

While initially asking my sources about this regional, I neglected to mention 503 as one of the elite teams attending. How quickly I was corrected...

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The biggest sleeper, 503: Two appearances on Einstein, Division Finalist last year, yet people rarely talk about them as a upper echelon year. Look for them to try and spoil the 71, 111, 1114 party.

The Frog Force will definitely make an impact, and could be a critical component pushing past some of the other juggernauts come saturday afternoon.

There is absolutely no reason to doubt that 71 will be an amazing machine and will be one of teams to beat at the most competitive regional this weekend. Four championships, and the equivalent of six trips to Einstein make them no laughing matter. We have yet to see the Team Hammond machine, but this Beast will be just as good as any other. Look for the another swerve drive and some amazing hurdling. They will be a top team, and will very likely at least be invited to one of the top three alliances.

Every year I see Wildstang's bot and remark about how superb the engineering is, and oggle the amazing amounts of precision, control, and flexibility their design is. Then I think that it's too complex and that added complexity will hinder them... then 111 competes. This year should be much of the same. Another iteration of Wildstang's fantastic swerve, another complex manipulator designed for full control of the ball. If their manipulator works the way I think it does, they should have little trouble acquiring and controlling the ball (check out 2041's, who will be competitive in their own right, manipulator for a general idea). The added complexity, movements, and deployment time might cause some issues, but knowing Wildstang, the drivers will be able to operate the machine smooth as butter. Watch out for Wildstang attempting to repeat at their home regional.

For the first time ever, the Simbots are competing week 1. 1114 has been nothing short of dominant during their history, and has quickly vaulted into the level of FIRST elite. While they haven't been able to win a division yet, they have captured six of their last seven regionals and have won 100% of the IRI's where they haven't been paired with 25 in the eliminations. Not only will they compete on the same level as 111 and 71, 1114s rivalry with 48 may get as much hype as 111 vs. 71. I know for a fact that these Canadiens will be hurdling (fast), drive at a splintering pace, have one of the fastest acquisition methods, and have a killer hybrid... but so will many other teams at Midwest. 1114 is quite possibly the biggest threat in Chicago, but (as any other team) will need help in order to bypass the rest of the top-tier competitors.

A tipster left me this gem as well,

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Return of Baxter: For the past couple of years, Team 16 has been simply known as the "Bomb Squad". Recently, they've been calling themselves the "Baxter Bomb Squad". If Baxter has really returned to sponsor and mentor this team, look out. From 1996-2000, this team was utterly dominant. A return to that form would make this regional even more scary.

It's true, the intro the Bomb Squad's 2008 video does indeed say "Baxter Bomb Squad", and the robot featured looks like it could live up to previous glory. It's certainly got the old-school flopbot feel to it as well. They blend the popular low-profile shooter look with commanding size and a roller-based intake which could give them some advantages over similar shooters.

The Killer Bees are in town as well, and also will challenge for some critical positioning.

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33's bot is exactly what we'd expect from the Killer Bees, elegant, clean and powerful. They adopted the roller claw, but they brought a trick with theirs to help speed it up (the ability for their claw to fold backwards), which may give them an edge over many of their roller-clawed brothers. But will it be enough to give them an edge over the countless other top-tier teams (such as the yet-unrevealed 71 and 1114)?

The Killer Bees will definitely factor into the mix, and can be a critical piece of an alliance, but I don't know if this machine has everything it needs to carry an alliance past such high caliber competition. It will certainly emerge as one of the stronger hurdlers of week 1, but unless they can pick up another top notch team to help their alliance, they might be out of luck on saturday afternoon.

By far, the most impressive pictures/video of any of the week 1 bots was delivered by Winnovation. 1625 debuted a very elegant solution to this year's game, combining and building on the strengths of many popular designs. They couple a swerve drive, with a roller claw, with a shooter, with a knock-off bar to form a very scary robot. Winnovation plays on all the various strengths of each system to form a robot almost devoid of any blatant weaknesses. They may not be able to place (consistently at least) on the overpass at the end, but their speed, agility, dexterity at picking up the ball, effective hurdling ranges (both close and far from the overpass), and hybrid easily make up for that. Of the teams with revealed designs for this weekend, they're easily my favorite (but we'll see what others produce).

But, especially with all these powerhouses in Chicago, it will take all three teams to perform to win the regional. That means these teams will have to rely on a lesser-known local third partner to help them through.

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Big Teams vs. Little Teams: With all sorts of powerhouse teams showing up in Chicago, it may seem like the small local teams are going to be choked out of the spotlight. But, with the serpentine draft, the top alliances will all need to rely on these teams. Look for one of these teams to make the difference in a powerhouse showdown in the finals.

Watch for someone to step up in the finals and make a name for them self.

Conclusion:

Week 1 is going to be full of some intense competition, especially in Chicago. Several big name bots come out to play, and look for some spectacular performances from around the country. We'll finally get an idea of how the game plays, although the play will surely change dramatically each weekend, we should get some ideas for the themes to follow.