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Re: Predictions to win 2008 Frc Championship
Glenn, I agree, with the exception of ball placing. I really don't think placing is that important at the end of the game. I'd much rather have my drivers focusing on smart driving, playing D, and knocking balls.
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I'm glad you brought it up!
Blocking "may" not be illegal. I for one thought it was, even after the heated CD discussions and updates. However, during week 3 regionals, especially the one we attended, blocking was done and WE were called for 30 points in penalties for hitting the blocking robot, during hybrid mode. Prior to the Hawaii regional matches, I made it a point to ask the head ref on how he would call it on a situation where the opposing team blocks. He said he wouldn't call a penalty on either side. It really was fine with us as we knew prior to the matches and as long as it was consistent throughout the weekend. Not sure what the GDC would say, however, I would definitely ask the head ref on Thursday at CMP. It may differ from division to division. |
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In addition, during the elimination matches, we and 368 went up against the powerhouse 25 and 968 team. We won ultimately because we placed the balls up at the end of the matches. There alliance never placed balls. With a point differential of 24 points, you will see that we won by a score much less than that, thus its importance. |
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In both cases you presented, your ball handlers made the last-second place. I bet it would have been much harder to pull off a double-place in the last five seconds (as I've also seen 2024 and 192 pull of during the SVR eliminations) of one of the placers was not one of the default ball handlers, and you would have needed to coordinate transferring / changing ball handling. Perhaps a friendly wager of some sorts? If we agree that most eliminations alliances will have two major ball handlers, then I believe that very few elimination matches will be decided by a ball placed by the third (non-handling) alliance members. What say you? |
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Now... my personal opinion... in a much, much earlier pre-season thread discussing the game I suggested that the nature of the game would be such that it would be very difficult for a team to design a robot that would completely dominate the competition and that an alliance of mid-strength robots could take down any alliance with just one strong robot. My apologies to the teams whom I so greatly underestimated. There are several teams with robots that completely dominate. I look forward to seeing many of them in action on Einstein. But there is one robot that seems to stand out in sheer, absolute, utter dominance... and that is 1114. Being the top robot doesn't guarantee a championship, and there are many teams that can give them a run for their money... and depending on how the alliances form may ultimately prove my pre-season predictions correct... but if I had to pick one robot and one team that I think will win... Simbotics is it. I have to admit some personal bias in this choice, because we've played against them a few times now (not this year, thankfully!) and know them to be a top notch team of really good people... in fact I wouldn't be suprised to find them in the running for Championship Chairman's as well as the competition banner. Not to say the other top notch teams and robots aren't deserving, but I think 1114 has been waiting a year or two too long for a championship... this will be their year! I hope. Jason |
Re: Predictions to win 2008 Frc Championship
**response to Guy**
I actually like your reasoning better!:D I will throw something else in the mix. Team 25 and 968 knew that was our strategy as we knew both of them dont place balls, unless by chance. When you get a chance to see the vids later, you will see them also try and knock our balls down once placed. Well,....... they were unsuccessful as we parked our bots right in front of it, pushing backwards at times. Had they had us as a third teammate, we would have placed the ball....hehe...:D (nah, highly unlikely) I think the challenge will be for the 3rd bot in being able to knock balls down, as opposing teams will be doing a lot of "parking" as a strategy in the heated last seconds of a close match. I think we both agree that the 3rd bot is more important than what has been said here. AND that's why your bot should easily make the elimination matches at CMP. Depending on how refs let matches play out, I'd hate to go up against 2024 also. |
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By the way, congrats on the WFA. |
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My third question was supposed to be when do division assignments come out and I don't know how it came out so wrong. |
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As for when the divisions are announced, based on last year it would likely be Wednesday (tomorrow). |
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Re: Predictions to win 2008 Frc Championship
I think that 1114 will dominate, but they may not. Teams have played the keeping the ball away from other teams trick. If your alliance has one lapping robot, dedicated to keep the ball away from 1114, then that may stop them. After they realized that they can't pick up the ball, they'll either move on to another ball or try and do a lap and hope to pick it up the next time.
But it's mainly 1114's hybrid which dominates. It would take an alliance with another strong autonomous to beat them. After i look at the blue alliance's possible divisions, it looks like it'll either be the Curie Division or the Galileo Division which will take it. 217 is really strong and if they are in the same division as 1114...it's over. |
Re: Predictions to win 2008 Frc Championship
I think the problem with predicting is that there are so many teams with decent chances of winning. If you could somehow query out the probabilities of victory from the universe, it might look like:
1114: 15% 217: 8% 16: 6% ... bunch more well-known teams ... ... 300 teams with < 1% So even the team with the highest probability of winning it has a 85% chance of NOT winning it, which is why they are the best choice, but still probably won't. |
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That, and it's only who I would like to win, not nessacarily the ones who will win! (but I hope they do, or if they are in seperate divisions, I hope they win there divisions and play eachother, 16 vs 1114 again, would be reeally sweet to see, 16 was very close to matching 1114's hurdles in the MidWest) |
Re: Predictions to win 2008 Frc Championship
My prediction states that if 1114 and (2056 or 217) end up on the same division, its more or less game over for everyone else. the 1114/2056/x combination at Waterloo/GTR has proved unstoppable for 2 years running.
EDIT: Also, I think 2056 is the only team in history to go 4 for 4 at regionals. (As in winning the first 4 regionals they ever competed in) |
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I stand corrected then. Though I won't be surprised if 2056 surpasses 254's impressive record. Winning 5 out of their first 6 events (only event they've competed in that they didnt win was 2007 Championship) is VERY impressive. Though its probably been somewhat aided by the fact that every single time, they've been paired with 1114.
(The events i'm referring to are 2007 Waterloo, 2007 GTR, 2007 IRI, 2007 CMP, 2008 Waterloo, 2008 GTR.) |
Re: Predictions to win 2008 Frc Championship
116 posts before the divisions are even posted.
You people just like taking chances on bets you can't win don't you? :rolleyes: I'm going to wait till the divisions are announced to even make a guess.. (If at all, since it's a waste of time to guess who will do good in Atlanta since all the best of the best are there, and luck has a lot to do with this more than any other event throughout the year). |
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In 2005, the divisions were released on a Monday, 10 days before the beginning of the championship (9 days after the end of the last regionals). In 2006, the divisions were released on a Friday, 13 days before the beginning of the championship (13 days after the end of the last regionals). In 2007, the divisions were released on a Wednesday, 8 days before the beginning of the championship (4 days after the end of the last regionals). |
Re: Predictions to win 2008 Frc Championship
i think we can expect sometime late this week...
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It's never over till it's over. Who thought anyone besides 330 and company had a snowball's chance in hell of taking down Pink and Beatty last year? |
Re: Predictions to win 2008 Frc Championship
haha I was just looking through some of our videos... check this out...
http://www.team1629.com/team/node/59 If we only could do this consistantly it would be great lol just thought id share with all... |
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The Cheesy Poofs havent always been with the more dominant partner. In fact, they WERE the dominant partner. We would know as we were their teammates in 2001 and 2002 at SVR when we won gold. Nobody's record as of this point is more impressive than the Poofs, IMO. Its not to say that 71, 111, 217,330 and others that started way back aren't just as good. But their track record stands out and speaks for itself, considering the no. of regionals they've been to. Furthermore, there are so many teams gunning for teams like them and 25. To continue to win regionals is outright impressive. Cory made a good point that anyone at CMP can be beat. How the heck have they not won at CMP yet? Its all about the alliances. No ONE robot wins. Its the strength of an alliance. On paper, alliances may look strong. However, the end match results dont always reflect that. No disrespect to any particular team. Just pointing out and reiterating the fact that history has shown that any good alliance can win. We've had 2 regionals this year where an 8th seed won. 2007 CMP showed that any seed, including the 8th seed can win. Why hasn't Tiger Woods won every single major since 1999 where he was clearly the best golfer in the world EVERY year since then? That's because "shift" happens. :D :D My favorite is still 1114................................ with us as their 3rd alliance partner.:P |
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"Don't stop, believin'...." ;) |
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I believe that Simbot SS is the best Overdrive robot out there right now, at least as far as I have seen. However, this is not a competition one robot can dominate. If you want a list of robots that I'd bet on putting high scores, look at the Offensive Power Rankings thread. If you want to talk about favorite to win their division, and maybe even the whole thing, talk to me Saturday at noon :) Quote:
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"Under Pressure", "Another One Bites the Dust" and the list goes on |
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What is unfortunate, in a way, is that Einstein won't see the top 12 teams competing. Sure... there won't be any slackers on the field... but while it is possible to have the number one and number two robot from any division on an alliance, the chances of the number three robot being there are pretty close to zero. It would be interesting to see what would happen if, after the divisional championships were completed, there was a mechanism to pick the very best possible alliance from each division... which would likely be different from the winning alliance... so that the top twelve teams (or as close to it as humanly possible) were competing for the top overall title. It could be a vote by the teams in the division to pick the top three machines/teams. It could be a panel of the judges picks the top alliance, or it could be that the panel of judges advises a FIRST celebrity like Dean (representing Curie) or Woodie (reprsenting Newton, for instance) who makes the final call and then cheers for that division on Einstein... or even gets involved as a "coach" on the field. Or maybe we just need a sponsor to come forward and put on a "pro-bowl" type of all star event after Championships on an invitation only basis. The top alliances could be arranged geographically, or by sponsor (GM vs. NASA... what a match!) Alliances could even be made up of four or five teams, and an alliance "General Manager" would determine who played in any given match... just to shake things up a bit. Of course that would take the focus off the Chairman's as being the top award, and it is important to keep in mind that while winning is nice, and seeing the very best teams duke it out is fun... that isn't really the point of this whole crazy thing we call FIRST. So while I'm looking forward to cheering for whoever wins (in person for the first time!) I'll stick to my prediction that 1114 will be one of the members of that alliance. Jason |
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I say 103 and 2344 get in there somewhere.
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Impressive. Jason |
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What does not change in the scheme of things is the commitment of the mentors to the program and the participation of teenagers in all areas of the FIRST development and competition, whether they are members of new rookie teams, successful teams, or elite teams. When having these discussions, that should be kept at the forefront of the discussions as well as the equal amount of money paid to participate. I'm of the mind at this time, that the bigger the party, the better - may the best on that weekend, win - and may everyone have a blast and recognize that they have competed in the 2008 season. |
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Well it looks like we will only have to wait one more day until we can all start making some serious predictions. I say this because the team list is up to 341, and based on the pit map, only 344 teams can be entered. So yeah, WHOSE PUMPED ABOUT GETTING TO MAKE SOME REALISTIC PREDICTIONS!!!
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I think that Hybrid will play a major part during any of the matches in Atlanta. Team RUSH 27 is collecting used or unused IR Boards and we will recondition them for the use of other teams in Atlanta who may have broken their board. If you have an IR Board that you would like to donate please email me at socceraddict63@aol.com.
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I'm sure they'd welcome some Western Canadian teams at IRI. |
Re: Predictions to win 2008 Frc Championship
if the alliances were to close as they are right now, my predictions would be
Normal Order: Archimedes would take the gold with 1114, 27, and 71 Serpentine Order: Newton would take the gold with 254, 40 and 2166 now we wait until tomorrow... |
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Pick again. |
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All in all, this is just crazy talk. Even once divisions are out, I bet no one will correctly predict the winning alliance until people are posting predictions after alliance selections on Saturday. |
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Please don't paint a red circle on our backs. :eek: |
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71 is on the top of peoples list even when they arnt at a regional. I heard that some team at GLR wanted them as their number one pick. :O Ha. |
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