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-   -   Predictions to win 2008 Frc Championship (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showthread.php?t=66354)

dtengineering 08-04-2008 03:09
Re: Predictions to win 2008 Frc Championship
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jayjaywalker3 (Post 732571)
What does this mean?
Atlanta is not just one big regional, but rather four seperate fields that each act as an individual regional. At the end of the tournament the champions from each field compete for the overall championship. If you are assigned a field different from another team, it is impossible for you to ally with them.


Quote:
What is OPR?
Offensive Power Ranking a statistical way to indicate how many points, on average, teams contribute to an alliance. Like many statistics it is not perfect, but it is probably the best single indicator of how a team contributes to the score.


Quote:
What is a good score?
I believe that in Toronto 1114 was not in a single match where their alliance scored less than 98 points. At many regionals a good score would be over 70. In Atlanta I expect the bar would be raised so that a "good score" would be over 100. Technically, of course, a "good enough" score is one more point than your opponents.

Now... my personal opinion... in a much, much earlier pre-season thread discussing the game I suggested that the nature of the game would be such that it would be very difficult for a team to design a robot that would completely dominate the competition and that an alliance of mid-strength robots could take down any alliance with just one strong robot.

My apologies to the teams whom I so greatly underestimated. There are several teams with robots that completely dominate. I look forward to seeing many of them in action on Einstein.

But there is one robot that seems to stand out in sheer, absolute, utter dominance... and that is 1114. Being the top robot doesn't guarantee a championship, and there are many teams that can give them a run for their money... and depending on how the alliances form may ultimately prove my pre-season predictions correct... but if I had to pick one robot and one team that I think will win... Simbotics is it.

I have to admit some personal bias in this choice, because we've played against them a few times now (not this year, thankfully!) and know them to be a top notch team of really good people... in fact I wouldn't be suprised to find them in the running for Championship Chairman's as well as the competition banner. Not to say the other top notch teams and robots aren't deserving, but I think 1114 has been waiting a year or two too long for a championship... this will be their year!

I hope.

Jason

waialua359 08-04-2008 03:17
Re: Predictions to win 2008 Frc Championship
 
**response to Guy**
I actually like your reasoning better!:D
I will throw something else in the mix. Team 25 and 968 knew that was our strategy as we knew both of them dont place balls, unless by chance. When you get a chance to see the vids later, you will see them also try and knock our balls down once placed. Well,....... they were unsuccessful as we parked our bots right in front of it, pushing backwards at times. Had they had us as a third teammate, we would have placed the ball....hehe...:D (nah, highly unlikely)
I think the challenge will be for the 3rd bot in being able to knock balls down, as opposing teams will be doing a lot of "parking" as a strategy in the heated last seconds of a close match.
I think we both agree that the 3rd bot is more important than what has been said here. AND that's why your bot should easily make the elimination matches at CMP. Depending on how refs let matches play out, I'd hate to go up against 2024 also.

waialua359 08-04-2008 03:23
Re: Predictions to win 2008 Frc Championship
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by dtengineering (Post 732612)
Atlanta is not just one big regional, but rather four seperate fields that each act as an individual regional. At the end of the tournament the champions from each field compete for the overall championship. If you are assigned a field different from another team, it is impossible for you to ally with them.




Offensive Power Ranking a statistical way to indicate how many points, on average, teams contribute to an alliance. Like many statistics it is not perfect, but it is probably the best single indicator of how a team contributes to the score.




I believe that in Toronto 1114 was not in a single match where their alliance scored less than 98 points. At many regionals a good score would be over 70. In Atlanta I expect the bar would be raised so that a "good score" would be over 100. Technically, of course, a "good enough" score is one more point than your opponents.

Now... my personal opinion... in a much, much earlier pre-season thread discussing the game I suggested that the nature of the game would be such that it would be very difficult for a team to design a robot that would completely dominate the competition and that an alliance of mid-strength robots could take down any alliance with just one strong robot.

My apologies to the teams whom I so greatly underestimated. There are several teams with robots that completely dominate. I look forward to seeing many of them in action on Einstein.

But there is one robot that seems to stand out in sheer, absolute, utter dominance... and that is 1114. Being the top robot doesn't guarantee a championship, and there are many teams that can give them a run for their money... and depending on how the alliances form may ultimately prove my pre-season predictions correct... but if I had to pick one robot and one team that I think will win... Simbotics is it.

I have to admit some personal bias in this choice, because we've played against them a few times now (not this year, thankfully!) and know them to be a top notch team of really good people... in fact I wouldn't be suprised to find them in the running for Championship Chairman's as well as the competition banner. Not to say the other top notch teams and robots aren't deserving, but I think 1114 has been waiting a year or two too long for a championship... this will be their year!

I hope.

Jason
I think its an understatement to say that the Cheesy Poofs have been long due since their inception year, 1999! :p
By the way, congrats on the WFA.

jayjaywalker3 08-04-2008 07:01
Re: Predictions to win 2008 Frc Championship
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by dtengineering (Post 732612)
Atlanta is not just one big regional, but rather four seperate fields that each act as an individual regional. At the end of the tournament the champions from each field compete for the overall championship. If you are assigned a field different from another team, it is impossible for you to ally with them.


I believe that in Toronto 1114 was not in a single match where their alliance scored less than 98 points. At many regionals a good score would be over 70. In Atlanta I expect the bar would be raised so that a "good score" would be over 100. Technically, of course, a "good enough" score is one more point than your opponents.
Thank you for answering my questions. For my first question i meant what is the difference between "Serpentine" and normal division setup.

My third question was supposed to be when do division assignments come out and I don't know how it came out so wrong.

GaryVoshol 08-04-2008 07:34
Re: Predictions to win 2008 Frc Championship
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by T3_1565 (Post 732475)
really So I guess what I'm saying is 1114, 121, 16 FOR THE WIN
Wow, that's a really deep division if one of those 3 are around for a last pick.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jayjaywalker3 (Post 732629)
Thank you for answering my questions. For my first question i meant what is the difference between "Serpentine" and normal division setup.

My third question was supposed to be when do division assignments come out and I don't know how it came out so wrong.
Normal and Serpentine are two ways FIRST has used in the past to divvy the teams up into the divisions. The teams are listed numerically, and then assigned to the divisions. Normal goes ABCD, ABCD, ABCD ... Serpentine is ABCD, DCBA, ABCD, DCBA, etc. Serpentine was set up when it was pointed out that two teams with consecutive numbers, for example 66 and 67, would never be able to be assigned to the same division with a normal ABCD ABCD scheme.

As for when the divisions are announced, based on last year it would likely be Wednesday (tomorrow).

Travis Hoffman 08-04-2008 08:41
Re: Predictions to win 2008 Frc Championship
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by waialua359 (Post 732605)
However, I would definitely ask the head ref on Thursday at CMP. It may differ from division to division.
I would seriously, SERIOUSLY hope not. Oy.

ttldomination 08-04-2008 09:13
Re: Predictions to win 2008 Frc Championship
 
I think that 1114 will dominate, but they may not. Teams have played the keeping the ball away from other teams trick. If your alliance has one lapping robot, dedicated to keep the ball away from 1114, then that may stop them. After they realized that they can't pick up the ball, they'll either move on to another ball or try and do a lap and hope to pick it up the next time.

But it's mainly 1114's hybrid which dominates. It would take an alliance with another strong autonomous to beat them.

After i look at the blue alliance's possible divisions, it looks like it'll either be the Curie Division or the Galileo Division which will take it. 217 is really strong and if they are in the same division as 1114...it's over.

Bongle 08-04-2008 09:21
Re: Predictions to win 2008 Frc Championship
 
I think the problem with predicting is that there are so many teams with decent chances of winning. If you could somehow query out the probabilities of victory from the universe, it might look like:

1114: 15%
217: 8%
16: 6%
... bunch more well-known teams ...
... 300 teams with < 1%

So even the team with the highest probability of winning it has a 85% chance of NOT winning it, which is why they are the best choice, but still probably won't.

T3_1565 08-04-2008 09:43
Re: Predictions to win 2008 Frc Championship
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by GaryVoshol (Post 732634)
Wow, that's a really deep division if one of those 3 are around for a last pick.
True it would be, but I seem to be the only who mentioned 121, and only the second one mentioning 16 :cool:

That, and it's only who I would like to win, not nessacarily the ones who will win! (but I hope they do, or if they are in seperate divisions, I hope they win there divisions and play eachother, 16 vs 1114 again, would be reeally sweet to see, 16 was very close to matching 1114's hurdles in the MidWest)

Racer26 08-04-2008 10:17
Re: Predictions to win 2008 Frc Championship
 
My prediction states that if 1114 and (2056 or 217) end up on the same division, its more or less game over for everyone else. the 1114/2056/x combination at Waterloo/GTR has proved unstoppable for 2 years running.

EDIT: Also, I think 2056 is the only team in history to go 4 for 4 at regionals. (As in winning the first 4 regionals they ever competed in)

Joe Ross 08-04-2008 10:30
Re: Predictions to win 2008 Frc Championship
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1075guy (Post 732698)
My prediction states that if 1114 and (2056 or 217) end up on the same division, its more or less game over for everyone else. the 1114/2056/x combination at Waterloo/GTR has proved unstoppable for 2 years running.

EDIT: Also, I think 2056 is the only team in history to go 4 for 4 at regionals. (As in winning the first 4 regionals they ever competed in)
254 went 5 for their first 5, winning 1 in 1999, 2 in 2000, and 2 in 2001, before losing at the buckeye regional in 2002. They also won the Silicon Valley Regional 8 years in a row (1999-2006).

Racer26 08-04-2008 10:34
Re: Predictions to win 2008 Frc Championship
 
I stand corrected then. Though I won't be surprised if 2056 surpasses 254's impressive record. Winning 5 out of their first 6 events (only event they've competed in that they didnt win was 2007 Championship) is VERY impressive. Though its probably been somewhat aided by the fact that every single time, they've been paired with 1114.

(The events i'm referring to are 2007 Waterloo, 2007 GTR, 2007 IRI, 2007 CMP, 2008 Waterloo, 2008 GTR.)

Elgin Clock 08-04-2008 10:37
Re: Predictions to win 2008 Frc Championship
 
116 posts before the divisions are even posted.

You people just like taking chances on bets you can't win don't you? :rolleyes:

I'm going to wait till the divisions are announced to even make a guess.. (If at all, since it's a waste of time to guess who will do good in Atlanta since all the best of the best are there, and luck has a lot to do with this more than any other event throughout the year).

T3_1565 08-04-2008 11:34
Re: Predictions to win 2008 Frc Championship
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Elgin Clock (Post 732716)
116 posts before the divisions are even posted.

You people just like taking chances on bets you can't win don't you? :rolleyes:

I'm going to wait till the divisions are announced to even make a guess.. (If at all, since it's a waste of time to guess who will do good in Atlanta since all the best of the best are there, and luck has a lot to do with this more than any other event throughout the year).
speaking of which.... when do they get annouced??

Rick TYler 08-04-2008 11:36
Re: Predictions to win 2008 Frc Championship
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Guy Davidson (Post 732526)
Come on, Cory, no love for your old team? If you have to mention the cream puffs of the west coast, how can you forget about 100? 192 is pretty good too. I'd also throw in our Hawaiian friends from 368 and 359, as they're practically west coast.
Don't forget those pathetic slackers, 1983 and 2046. What miserable, ineffective, robots they are.


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