Offensive Power Rankings for 2008
 

Inspired by a post by sw293 in one of my long-past stats threads from 2006, I re-implemented his/her Offensive Power Rankings algorithm. Essentially, it tries to determine approximately how much each team, on average, contributed to their alliance.

You can see the math behind it detailed here: http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...0&postcount=19.

In essence, it looks at a team's accumulated score over the course of a weekend as a sum of the offensive power ratings of all the other teams, multiplied by the number of times that team was paired with each team.

Example: 1565's first match at GTR was with 2198 and 1870, and they played 8 matches total. The '...' would be all their other alliance partners through qualifying, multiplied each time by how many times they were allied with them.

TotalScore(1565) = OPR(1565)*8 + OPR(2198)*1 + OPR(1870)*1 + ...

Once you arrange the scores of all the teams from a regional in this way, then you end up with N equations (one big sum of scores per team) and N unknowns (the offensive power ratings). This can be solved to find out the OPRs.

Without further ado, here they are for GTR. I'll be doing other regionals in the very near future.

Re: Offensive Power Rankings for 2008
 

These power rankings were a great help in 2006. (very accurate and very predictive) Of course they did not predict the exact outcome of matches, but it certainly let a team know what they were up against and who they were partnered with. It was a big part of our Championship scouting routine in 2006.

Thanks for offering to do this!

Re: Offensive Power Rankings for 2008
 

The penalties are such a huge factor this year, unless you find a way to account for them, this formula won't accurately reflect a teams offensive ability.

Re: Offensive Power Rankings for 2008
 

Exactly correct. These shouldn't be used as the be-all end-all of scouting, but perhaps as pointers to find gems in the rough. There are many things that can happen in this game (and in other years) that aren't encapsulated in a simple number.

Re: Offensive Power Rankings for 2008
 

This is actually better then a team's offensive ability. It shows a teams point contribution. If a team is consistently penalized, they will have a lower OPR then a team that scores the same points per match but does so without penalties. You would obviously want the latter on your alliance.

Another interesting thing is that a team that constantly gets in the way of it's alliance parters would have a lower OPR then one that scores the same number of points but allows it's alliance partners to live to their full potential.

Re: Offensive Power Rankings for 2008
 

are thier going to be ones for every regional? or would that be an endeavour of the individual teams to do?

Re: Offensive Power Rankings for 2008
 

Just finished the complete list. This includes every single 2nd-week and later regional. The first-week regionals have slightly different formatting for match results, and I couldn't include them easily. At least based on this analysis, we finally have an answer for the question: "Is anyone CLOSE to 1114?". The answer: no.

The top 50:
See the attachment for the rest.

Re: Offensive Power Rankings for 2008
 

I don't see entries for any teams I remember from Microsoft-Seattle Regional (Week 4). :confused:

Re: Offensive Power Rankings for 2008
 

A team can have a great scoring record and have few penalties but can still have their rating ruined by being on alliances that have scored penalties.

If you can't factor out alliance penalties then there is way too much "luck of the draw" possible in this chart.

Re: Offensive Power Rankings for 2008
 

It had funny formatting, but upon thinking about it some more, I don't think it should badly affect my program's ability to read it. I'll put it in and re-do them.

In fact, I can think of a way I should be able to get the week 1 regionals working as well.

Check this thread again in 10 minutes, I should have an updated one up.

Re: Offensive Power Rankings for 2008
 

If you let me know a precise format you want, I can give you a huge CSV dump into the formatting you want from The Blue Alliance's database.

Re: Offensive Power Rankings for 2008
 

I would also like to see standings of all teams ranked based on their record at the attended official events (Win-Loss-Tie). :)

Re: Offensive Power Rankings for 2008
 

"Red1 <tab> Red2 <tab> red3 <tab> blue1 <tab> blue2 <tab> blue3 <tab> redscore <tab> bluescore <line feed or carriage return or end of line or whatever>" is all I need. That'd be great. CSV is good too, I'm not particular about the delimiter.

So including week 1, the top 50 now looks like:

Re: Offensive Power Rankings for 2008
 

The CSV is too big to attach. Find it here: http://www.thebluealliance.net/cdvid...30_matches.csv

Let me know if that works for you :)

Re: Offensive Power Rankings for 2008
 

Okay I somewhat understand how this is all calculated but I am guessing that somebody has already made an excel file to calculate all this? I tried to download one from '06 but the link was broken so can somebody please upload a new one? Thanks.