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-   -   Offensive Power Rankings for 2008 (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showthread.php?t=66388)

Jacob Plicque 04-04-2008 19:48
Re: Offensive Power Rankings for 2008
 
Sumadin
Your latest OPR must have an error (86 1.478877681). All the previous OPR data runs had Team 86 with an OPR between 8.8 and 9.2 points. Our actual average for the Florida Regional was 11.5 points. The difference of over 2 points can be explained by the fact that our 1st match included two no show partners. However, I can not figure out the 10 point difference in your post today

DonRotolo 04-04-2008 20:11
Re: Offensive Power Rankings for 2008
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by SlimBoJones (Post 730690)
Just to emphasize the quality of OPR as a predictor of who will be playing on Saturday afternoon. Keep in mind, this was a 66 team regional, and predicting 24 robots out of the field is no small feat.
Note that 1676, #1 pick for Alliance #7, was ranked in the high 40's based on win/loss record. Similarly, we were ranked in the 50s in NJ, but were picked for the 8th alliance.

Why? What team in their right mind would choose a team with a 3-5-0 record?

Teams that understand the math behind the scouting, that's who.

Don

Bongle 04-04-2008 20:11
Re: Offensive Power Rankings for 2008
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jacob Plicque (Post 730737)
Sumadin
Your latest OPR must have an error (86 1.478877681). All the previous OPR data runs had Team 86 with an OPR between 8.8 and 9.2 points. Our actual average for the Florida Regional was 11.5 points. The difference of over 2 points can be explained by the fact that our 1st match included two no show partners. However, I can not figure out the 10 point difference in your post today
Sumadin's included eliminations. It is possible that your alliance partners during eliminations were both scoring below their qualifying performance (which would make sense, given the increased quality of the opposition), and the algorithm 'attributed' that to you. This is why I didn't include eliminations in the ones I ran, they're a whole different beast. It probably isn't a bug in his code, because we both independently developed our own code and our results match, so unless the math foundations we're basing this on are shaky, it's probably an effect of using the finals data.

In other news:
Quote:
Just to emphasize the quality of OPR as a predictor of who will be playing on Saturday afternoon. Keep in mind, this was a 66 team regional, and predicting 24 robots out of the field is no small feat.
This intrigued me, so I did it for a few more:
GLR: 20/24
Florida: 19/24
VCU: 17/24

So it is a somewhat accurate predictor, but it doesn't take into account that a team's 3rd pick is likely to be a lower-scoring lap bot because of the game only having 2 trackballs. Picking strictly by OPR is a fast way to get eliminated, because you'd probably end up with 3 delicate, relatively slow hurdlers fighting over 2 trackballs, rather than a more-ideal combination of 1 robust lapper/defender and 2 hurdlers.

MasterChief 573 04-04-2008 20:45
Re: Offensive Power Rankings for 2008
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bongle (Post 730746)
Sumadin's included eliminations. It is possible that your alliance partners during eliminations were both scoring below their qualifying performance (which would make sense, given the increased quality of the opposition), and the algorithm 'attributed' that to you. This is why I didn't include eliminations in the ones I ran, they're a whole different beast. It probably isn't a bug in his code, because we both independently developed our own code and our results match, so unless the math foundations we're basing this on are shaky, it's probably an effect of using the finals data.

In other news:

This intrigued me, so I did it for a few more:
GLR: 20/24
Florida: 19/24
VCU: 17/24

So it is a somewhat accurate predictor, but it doesn't take into account that a team's 3rd pick is likely to be a lower-scoring lap bot because of the game only having 2 trackballs. Picking strictly by OPR is a fast way to get eliminated, because you'd probably end up with 3 delicate, relatively slow hurdlers fighting over 2 trackballs, rather than a more-ideal combination of 1 robust lapper/defender and 2 hurdlers.
Can I see the OPR from GLR?

Bongle 04-04-2008 20:51
Re: Offensive Power Rankings for 2008
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by MasterChief 573 (Post 730754)
Can I see the OPR from GLR?
(based on qualifying matches only)
Code:
217        50.7032
494        42.5188
27        41.5673
67        40.5394
1718        40.2957
33        38.5823
47        36.6663
469        34.469
326        31.1764
201        29.9324
65        29.6645
862        28.1615
291        24.9495
245        24.7518
70        24.0254
910        23.0301
68        23.0027
107        21.8664
573        20.1932
548        20.0728
66        20.0018
1023        18.233
1998        18.132
1732        17.8759
1747        17.6147
2137        16.5689
503        16.2864
894        16.1329
2676        15.6698
451        15.5634
2612        15.3752
2627        14.1293
2163        13.1382
2050        12.7314
1596        11.5487
1646        11.4519
2591        10.9547
470        9.91908
1015        9.73652
306        9.57384
1701        9.53248
2608        8.05458
830        7.30086
279        7.24847
308        7.11791
226        7.03603
1189        6.30477
1216        5.67063
63        4.94421
123        4.81491
280        4.45936
322        3.07761
1941        2.84981
240        2.57329
2620        2.49713
2224        2.32567
1322        2.18991
2673        0.819399
406        0.778652
2576        -0.147101
461        -0.978711
1549        -2.05435
313        -7.22184

cziggy343 04-04-2008 21:28
Re: Offensive Power Rankings for 2008
 
do you have one for each regional? b/c if you do, i would like to see palmetto... b/c i never got to see any statistics:(

Bongle 04-04-2008 21:32
Re: Offensive Power Rankings for 2008
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by cziggy343 (Post 730767)
do you have one for each regional? b/c if you do, i would like to see palmetto... b/c i never got to see any statistics:(
I have to generate them manually per-regional, so for now I'm going to keep it on a request basis. Enjoy!

Palmetto
Code:
845        34.6689
1251        34.1576
343        29.7443
1249        29.2152
342        26.3919
1261        25.5961
1466        22.6852
386        22.5882
1539        21.2896
1746        18.6837
2237        16.7312
2483        16.524
1026        16.3271
1319        16.0827
2187        13.6184
665        12.8638
2430        12.8461
1225        12.8339
2092        12.4018
281        12.147
1758        11.297
1398        8.26199
1102        8.01401
1553        7.85424
1051        7.1118
1876        6.23695
393        5.72104
804        4.95519
1959        4.86179
2362        3.91176
900        2.86289
1293        2.82464
1270        2.02667
1369        0.548534
2425        0.18277
1436        -4.56816

GBilletdeaux930 04-04-2008 21:38
Re: Offensive Power Rankings for 2008
 
So all i gotta do is say

"Can i see the opr's for the wisconsin regional?"

and they will magically appear a few posts down from this one?

cziggy343 04-04-2008 21:39
Re: Offensive Power Rankings for 2008
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by GBilletdeaux930 (Post 730773)
So all i gotta do is say

"Can i see the opr's for the wisconsin regional?"

and they will magically appear a few posts down from this one?
thats how mine worked:D

XaulZan11 04-04-2008 21:40
Re: Offensive Power Rankings for 2008
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by GBilletdeaux930 (Post 730773)
So all i gotta do is say

"Can i see the opr's for the wisconsin regional?"

and they will magically appear a few posts down from this one?
Ha, I was just gonna ask for the same. I'm interested to see how this compares to the statistics of points scored per match that we scouted.

GBilletdeaux930 04-04-2008 21:41
Re: Offensive Power Rankings for 2008
 
well we'll see if this magic works...


ABRAWisconsinRegionalKADABRA!!!

Bongle 04-04-2008 21:50
Re: Offensive Power Rankings for 2008
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by GBilletdeaux930 (Post 730776)
well we'll see if this magic works...


ABRAWisconsinRegionalKADABRA!!!
Lol, subtle

Wisconsin Regional
Code:
1625        49.8168
141        35.6332
1730        32.0028
1736        25.5406
2169        24.3109
2062        24.019
930        21.573
171        20.006
2547        19.1146
1675        18.0718
2481        17.3041
93        17.1033
166        15.6925
2549        15.4527
2606        15.3803
2535        14.9615
2545        14.8528
2526        14.6634
1091        14.3247
2437        13.5781
1816        13.1077
2574        12.4494
1739        11.8769
2530        11.2592
2116        10.8958
2077        10.7748
1652        10.6515
1103        10.364
2202        9.8298
2194        9.37814
1850        9.05741
2039        8.87432
857        8.77189
1988        8.39986
2153        8.3983
2143        7.923
2667        7.88136
1259        7.56955
537        7.14274
1716        6.86105
167        5.99421
904        5.74562
2136        5.62584
2129        5.27883
269        4.51404
74        3.56688
1306        3.53685
2220        3.22949
1714        2.86169
1732        2.31474
2506        2.25164
2538        1.84231
1864        0.955353
754        -0.576295
706        -1.18242
81        -2.20895
1984        -2.30947
1268        -2.98356
2586        -7.35126
2561        -9.22469

IKE 04-04-2008 21:51
Re: Offensive Power Rankings for 2008
 
Again, not a programmer, but I have an interesting idea for writing a DPR (Defensive Power Rating) algorithm. Take your OPR values, apply them to the matches. The delta between the expected score and the actual score would be the raw value for a DPR score. Use your OPR techniques to then factor out the DPR each team might provide.

One thought on why your average score is much higher than your OPR is that a decent hurdler may actually slow down the scoring of an exceptional hurdler. Take for instance an 1114. I know they have done 7 hurdles and may even have done 8 in a match. The match where they did 8, probably would not occur with 2 other decent hurdlers as they may hurdle also and thus accidentally slow down an 1114.

Thanks for posting your results.

GBilletdeaux930 04-04-2008 21:54
Re: Offensive Power Rankings for 2008
 
oh thank you it seems like there really is magic in this world

*looks up with his fingers interlaced in a weird disney like pose*

Adam Freeman 04-04-2008 23:00
Re: Offensive Power Rankings for 2008
 
Bongle, not that you need additional validation but your numbers match up exactly with the numbers that our guys have calculated.

This information in the hands of teams that know how to use it will be very dangerous :) ...

I know that I plan to have up to date information in Atlanta for our division.

Although there is no replacement for watching matches and see teams improve through out the weekend. I will have to keep my 'black magic' going and pull more 503s out of my hat, or they just might replace me with a OPR scoring database.


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