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-   -   Offensive Power Rankings for 2008 (http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showthread.php?t=66388)

The Lucas 04-04-2008 23:03
Re: Offensive Power Rankings for 2008
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by SlimBoJones (Post 730690)
Expect all good scouting teams to be using these stats in the very near future.
Although I love these numbers as and overall indicator of offensive contribution among many teams many matches, they are no substitution for scouting at your event and recording "actual" contributions. These numbers are great to scout with going into Championship. However, if you only use the numbers from 5 qualification matches (per team) to evaluate teams and generate your list on Friday night, there is something wrong with your methods. (Shawn, I know you were not thinking of these number as replacements for all other scouting)

My explanation for why the data is seams like it is skewed towards the extremes is team coordination, track speed, and defense. When very good teams get to together, this is a different game (you can see it in the elims). They are able to coordinate their strategy better (particularly hybrid mode). Ex. If a partner's hybrid routine bumps knocks off their higher-scoring partner's hybrid, that can easily cost the alliance 20+ points (which would reflect very badly on the the OPR of lower scoring bot). When good scoring machines are together (particularly when they are on both alliances) the track moves a lot quicker and there are very few traffic jams, so everyone scores more. If there is defense being played, it will likely only slow down the higher scoring machine, so the impact of the scoring capabilities of the partners is increased. These reasons should also explain some of the differences between regionals. Of coarse there is always the random variable of luck, but we will assume that is zero mean:D Well thats my $0.02

cwood 04-04-2008 23:13
Re: Offensive Power Rankings for 2008
 
personally i like these numbers. No its not a substitute for scouting but it atleast lets you know who you may want to pay closer attention to. I also like the new list as 1629 moved up to 40th!!

Doug G 05-04-2008 11:54
Re: Offensive Power Rankings for 2008
 
I'm not sure I saw this yet, but thought it would be interesting to cross reference the OPR with the CMP teams that are currently on the list... Here's the top 50 CMP OPRs...


Code:
Team        Reg Wins        OPR
1114        3        66.10642467
2056        2        54.11894734
233        2        50.73081127
330        1        48.61296306
987        1        48.40552663
39        2        48.06177403
525        1        45.48888639
67        1        44.23000818
1124        1        42.40054838
217        2        42.10281885
103        1        41.29156933
40        2        40.86592771
175        1        39.4420245
191        1        39.06592804
469        1        37.90116922
20        2        37.75470786
79        0        37.65042852
1717        2        37.34613148
141        0        37.32830996
1024        3        37.2668216
968        1        35.93916079
1086        1        35.8662985
1126        1        35.81116812
368        1        35.65581359
494        0        35.0189302
2171        1        33.98399753
25        1        33.89508807
1625        1        33.79257371
365        1        33.63738509
254        2        32.91821392
47        0        32.49881588
93        1        32.23816608
1477        2        32.14182287
1251        1        31.57996364
1806        2        31.33327422
16        1        31.18613493
1629        0        31.01151072
33        0        30.94122998
1418        1        30.31278837
195        0        30.2915486
27        0        29.90208154
71        1        29.87541039
171        1        29.71637571
148        1        29.4612061
126        0        29.13224379
1156        0        28.94799245
1065        0        28.73082662
121        1        28.65599825
45        0        28.31597278

MasterChief 573 05-04-2008 12:06
Re: Offensive Power Rankings for 2008
 
Can you do the full CMP list as of now?

Guy Davidson 05-04-2008 12:10
Re: Offensive Power Rankings for 2008
 
Doug, 191 was a member of the winning alliance at FLR.

Jacob Plicque 05-04-2008 14:38
Re: Offensive Power Rankings for 2008
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bongle (Post 730746)
Sumadin's included eliminations. It is possible that your alliance partners during eliminations were both scoring below their qualifying performance (which would make sense, given the increased quality of the opposition), and the algorithm 'attributed' that to you. This is why I didn't include eliminations in the ones I ran, they're a whole different beast. It probably isn't a bug in his code, because we both independently developed our own code and our results match, so unless the math foundations we're basing this on are shaky, it's probably an effect of using the finals data.

In other news:

This intrigued me, so I did it for a few more:
GLR: 20/24
Florida: 19/24
VCU: 17/24

So it is a somewhat accurate predictor, but it doesn't take into account that a team's 3rd pick is likely to be a lower-scoring lap bot because of the game only having 2 trackballs. Picking strictly by OPR is a fast way to get eliminated, because you'd probably end up with 3 delicate, relatively slow hurdlers fighting over 2 trackballs, rather than a more-ideal combination of 1 robust lapper/defender and 2 hurdlers.
Bongle
Your assumption is correct that Team 86 was a lapbot/defender. Our alliance won the elimination 6-0 at the Florida Regional with scores the ranged from 60 to 116 for 77 point average. I earlier tried to include the use the eliminations for the Florida Regional like Sumadin and the results were very skewed. So the matrices have a problem when the elimination match data is used to solve the matrix. I am still puzzled as to why the eliminations skew the OPR results so drastically (8,8 OPR no elims versus 1.47 OPR with elim)

Joe Ross 05-04-2008 14:55
Re: Offensive Power Rankings for 2008
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jacob Plicque (Post 731009)
Bongle
Your assumption is correct that Team 86 was a lapbot/defender. Our alliance won the elimination 6-0 at the Florida Regional with scores the ranged from 60 to 116 for 77 point average. I earlier tried to include the use the eliminations for the Florida Regional like Sumadin and the results were very skewed. So the matrices have a problem when the elimination match data is used to solve the matrix. I am still puzzled as to why the eliminations skew the OPR results so drastically (8,8 OPR no elims versus 1.47 OPR with elim)
233 and 1251's OPR add to 81, so overall the alliance underperformed* based on the qualifying OPRs. Therefore all three robot's OPRs should go down a little. Those 6 elim matches were 20% of the matches that 233 and 1251 played this year (they went to other regionals too). It was over 40% of 86's matches this year, so 86 would see more of an effect.

Also 233 performed much better at Hawaii then they did in Florida. Since there is only one OPR for the year, it looks like Pink underperformed at Hawaii and overperformed at Florida. I think that 86's OPR would change less when adding in the elims if you were looking at the Florida data only.

*by underperformed, I mean as far as OPR is concerned. It's likely that more defense was played in the finals and was the cause.

Jacob Plicque 05-04-2008 16:30
Re: Offensive Power Rankings for 2008
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe Ross (Post 731018)
233 and 1251's OPR add to 81, so overall the alliance underperformed* based on the qualifying OPRs. Therefore all three robot's OPRs should go down a little. Those 6 elim matches were 20% of the matches that 233 and 1251 played this year (they went to other regionals too). It was over 40% of 86's matches this year, so 86 would see more of an effect.

Also 233 performed much better at Hawaii then they did in Florida. Since there is only one OPR for the year, it looks like Pink underperformed at Hawaii and overperformed at Florida. I think that 86's OPR would change less when adding in the elims if you were looking at the Florida data only.

*by underperformed, I mean as far as OPR is concerned. It's likely that more defense was played in the finals and was the cause.
Joe,
The Hawaii data for 233 is 53.16 pts versus 35.63 pts at the Florida regional. This 18 point change in OPR probably reflects on the fact that the current matrix mathematics would need a strength of schedule adjustment when comparing 40+ regionals. Has 233 improved its offence by 150% in Hawaii or is the competition 66% as strong? In contrast 1251's OPR varied by only 1 point between Florida and South Carolina.:D

daf 05-04-2008 16:37
Re: Offensive Power Rankings for 2008
 
can you post the boston regional OPR?

IbleedPink233 05-04-2008 17:16
Re: Offensive Power Rankings for 2008
 
I'd think that the change in our scoring average could be due to a few things:
At Florida, there were 3 qualifying matches where our tower was 100% inoperable and 2 elimination matches where our top roller did not work, leading to below-average scores there. Also, our autonomous scored about twice as many points in Hawaii than it did in Florida.

Doug G 05-04-2008 21:01
Re: Offensive Power Rankings for 2008
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by MasterChief 573 (Post 730958)
Can you do the full CMP list as of now?
There may be a few more to add in this next week as NYC finishes up.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Guy Davidson (Post 730959)
Doug, 191 was a member of the winning alliance at FLR.
I simply took the TBA list and crossed it with the OPR list. TBA must not have 191 as winning. But I'll update the posted list.

David Guzman 05-04-2008 21:23
Re: Offensive Power Rankings for 2008
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jacob Plicque (Post 731049)
In contrast 1251's OPR varied by only 1 point between Florida and South Carolina.:D
Yea, this was mostly due to the fact that at palmetto our partners weren't as good. Also having a bull's eye on the robot doesn't help... :D

I love this power rankings, judging by the teams at the top and what I have seen at competitions. It is a good indication of what teams are scoring. This would be a good tool to do some scouting on what teams to watch for on Thursday at the Championship. (Once divisions come out.)

Nawaid Ladak 05-04-2008 21:23
Re: Offensive Power Rankings for 2008
 
can we please get a top 50 with the elimination rounds. i think it would be intresting to see these stats

Joe Ross 05-04-2008 21:40
Re: Offensive Power Rankings for 2008
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nawaid Ladak (Post 731139)
can we please get a top 50 with the elimination rounds. i think it would be intresting to see these stats
Guy's values in the following post include eliminations:

http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...7&postcount=42

cziggy343 06-04-2008 12:37
Re: Offensive Power Rankings for 2008
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by David Guzman (Post 731138)
Yea, this was mostly due to the fact that at palmetto our partners weren't as good. Also having a bull's eye on the robot doesn't help... :D
yeah... one of our mentors actually put a bullseye on our robot:D it was quite entertaining to me!


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