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Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
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The fact that my former team, 116 is ranked 3rd at the event should be the first indicator (as well as the ranks of 45, 365, and 234 being so low), despite struggling to score the entire regional. I don't have the raw OPR numbers handy (on my Mac), so I can't give detailed comparisons between the rankings, but judging by these, I think it may have become less accurate to what the team's real performance was. |
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During DC, I had my scouts do extensive scouting on each match, looking at how many MRs each scored, and how many MRs were scored on them (developing a match by match +/-). What I failed to do, was to have them track the HP and how many SCs the team delivered to the HP, both of which had profound impact on the game. If I just looked at the performance of each robot, 45, 365, and 234 were on the top of my list. But I knew from observations that 2199's HP was deadly, and 118 had the ability to get at least 2 SCs exchanged. So I wonder if there isn't some aspect of the OPR+ calculation relying on those other factors, and not just how effective the robot is. I'm going to run these numbers (looking at all three factors - robot, HP and SCs) while we are in the midst of the competition at Chesapeake this weekend to see if I see any trends. Perhaps this equation isn't going to give us the info we are looking for, but I still want to run some additional numbers to see how they do. Best regards, Steve |
Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
It was perfect because we were #1 after Friday. And therefore it must have been the best tool ever. Just Kidding, however, it really did help in our meeting. It confirmed that KRUNCH was as amazing as we thought.
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I pulled the data from FL, and ran the calculation for the finals, using the OPR+ and DPR+ numbers. Here are the results ... First, averaging the score across all three finals matches, the avg Red score was 74 and the avg Blue score was 84. I plugged the calculated values into the OPR+ and DPR+ formulas, and here is the outcome Red 68, Blue 90. An 8% difference for Red and a 7% difference for Blue between the predicted values and actual values. Penalties, which are not considered in the calculations, could easily account for that kind of discrepancy. In doing so, one thing became obvious, the OPR+ number can not be taken into consideration by itself, but must be linked with the DPR+ number - but not simply by adding them together - but in the separate calculations of Red vs Blue Score. I'm going to do some additional modelling of the data to see how we can get a combined ranking value. I am going to run additional calculations at other regionals and see how they correspond. Steve |
Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
Hi, I've been trying to access the ratings for the Dallas regional, and the program has not been able to parse the html data. Does anyone know why?
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Seriously now, if a TBA version is more reliable, then go for it. With the latest copy of your code AND a TBA version, I feel very confident we will be able to gather some fairly valid information. It will be interesting to compare the results. |
Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
i was wondering, i used to use OPR's back in 2006 and 2007 when they first became available
I was curious as to how the opponents you play factor into the situation. i'd much rather see a formula like a RPI or a SoS used alongside the OPR, DPR, and PM systems already established ie RPI = teams winning percentage x .25 + opponents winning percentage x .5 + opponents opponents winning percentage x .25 SoS = (Opponents win percentage) - (Your Alliance Partners win percentage) i think looking at these stats alongside the OPR, DPR and PM systems can truly show which teams are better than what is shown on the standings, and which teams just got bad luck and got paired with their worst nightmare's (Im using this to scout because i don't have any video from the Oregon Regional to view.) |
Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
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...It may have a lot of bugs in it. I think I got rid of most of them, but there are probably a few left. Quote:
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Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
Bongle, you're awesome!
It works like a charm! :eek: By the way, is there any way we can output the temporary file created through command prompt to an EXCEL worksheet? Just for quick ranking purposes...? Quote:
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Oh, SoS-Strength of Schedule, pretty much, what was your opponents record. but i guess that's already factored into the RPI as is i love it when we can use a formula for College Basketball and FIRST at the same time |
Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
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"oprnet (regional) (year) (statistic) (team/rank ranking) q > output.out" Ex: "oprnet il 2009 all r q > output.txt" will print all stats for Midwest 2009 to output.txt in a tab-separated table. That will spit out all the data to a file called output.out (it can be called anything). It'll all be tab-separated (make sure you put that q there, or it won't put the tabs), so you can copy/paste it into excel. Look through the thread for examples of the usage. Quote:
OWP: Average of a team's opponent's WP's OOWP: Average of a team's opponent's OWP's This recursive implementation is very slow, but it was very easy to implement. |
Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
I'm unable to get any results from years other than 2009, using v9.
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Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
This is a nice tool and most of the information is pretty accurate according to my own.
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There is no Match Zero....
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Edit: And my suspicion is correct: they've greatly changed the HTML. However, it'll be easier to parse now, so it shouldn't take too long to make a new parser. |
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In my latest version I have a flag set which writes a formatted line out to a java file. If I run the main program from Eclipse, it will download all of the data and auto-program itself into the next time the program launches. Fun stuff ... or scary iRobot stuff, however you look at it :ahh: I will say that doing the permanent data increases the program size by a few hundred K, but if you're using Java a few hundred K shouldn't matter :p |
Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
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V10
-Fixes parsing issue -Fixes bugs in RPI implementation |
Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
when i select all regionals, under that tab
it will terminate the program for some reason... is this because both MN and GLR (sry, i mean MSC) haven't been completed? |
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Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
Still can't get old regionals.
This is the tail of `oprnet.exe ny 2008 all` Code:
Downloaded 148551 bytes |
Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
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Alright folks, the feature that my PM box has been filling up for:
V11 -Can now do every single regional at once -Fixed a bug where it would lock up trying to parse some regionals Example syntax: Code:
oprnet all 2009 all r q > allRegionals.txtNow that everything can be spat into a single file and analyzed in excel, I've realized: 1) RPI is still broken (look at the 'gt' regional's RPIs) 2) SAA is fairly useless so far as predicting a team's finishing position 3) OPR is fairly good at predicting a team's finishing position 4) I need to do some more parsing to get more statistics. How does OPR correlate to win %? What is the distribution of OPRs among elimination alliances? You make a good point about harrassing bandwidth. Here is a nice tab-separated data block: Code:
Rank Outof Reg Team OPR SAA PM RPI |
Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
Awesome job! This is a very cool and very powerful program. When used in conjunction with more detailed scouting reports this program could be very useful.
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Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
Bongle, i understand how you show all results into command prompt.
However, the CP window automatically closes right after it outputs the results. Also, when i type: "oprnet all 2009 all r q > allRegionals.txt" it does not do anything but show all results, followed by immediately closing itself. What is the problem here? Am i doing something wrong or missing out on some step? |
Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
hey this is really an awesome program. i have three questions.
1) if it's not much of a problem, you think you could incorporate a way to search for stats of specific teams by just entering their team number? 2) you think there is away to average a certain team's over all stats from all of the regionals they have participated in 3) will there be a way to use this program for championships? awesome work and if its a hassel to any of those, don't stress. lol thanks |
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Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
oh...and one more thing...i think, if you could, try to rank all the teams in every regional based on the stats to see which team is the best out of everyone. it would help majorly in a lot of debates. lol
just another idea |
Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
Bongle, great work!
Pretty much repeating what everyone else has suggested, but with a methodology attached in case they're unclear :P Can you load all the matches into one matrix and solve OPR/RPI from there? By the way, before the all regional option got in there, I dumped them one by one and threw them into a spreadsheet, then did some other analysis by hand. http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...t=76194&page=7 Interesting statistical points about the top 25 OPR: Only 12 went on from setting that high OPR to win that regional. Also, team 71's 63.55 OPR at the Midwest regional stands out beyond the rest, but their performance (which probably did involve quite a lot of scoring) didn't seem to add up to that. This is just an easy example of the inaccuracy possible in this analysis. |
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Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
I had my brother write a very similar program before I knew this one existed, one way we tested our results was by using the stats we calculated to predict what the results of matches would be.
In our program offensive score had some predictive power but defense had no relation to reality. Did you find differently when you tested your results? [our graphs if you want to analyze them yourself] http://kamocat.com/scouting/moredata.html |
Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
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Thanks for all your help Bongle! I finally got it. :)
Below is the attachment to AllRegionals' data. There are all entries and NOT averages of each team's data, which is what I have to work on. There's a master worksheet with all entries and all regionals' worksheets seperately. Please let me know if there are any defects in the spreadsheet. Thanks once again, Bongle for all the help. I hope it comes in handy for teams attending World's! |
Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
Is it just me or is Dallas not working?
Edit: It seems BAE isnt working also... |
Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
Has anyone tried to combine the matches from all regionals into one giant matrix, and solve that?
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Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
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It took me a little while but here is a Mac version of an OPR program. Requires OS X version 10.5.
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Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
Bump: Thanks to FIRST not updating the format of the online results this year, I just want to point out that OPRNet (and I'm assuming the other implementations) work in 2010 as well.
Notable rankings: 1114 [Pittsburgh]: 6.8 63 [Pittsburgh]: 3.7 217 [Cass Tech]: 4.9 469 [Cass Tech]: 2.4 (this seems low, but it is probably because 469 is dependent on good alliance partners supplying it with balls, so it quals they probably end up with lower effectiveness) |
Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
Fantastic!!
I was about to dig out your code to see if it would work this year as well. We used it last year with excellent results. Now that we know it works, you can count on us using it again this year. All we have to do is wait until week 5. |
Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
It worked last weekend when i was using it at the Florida regional. The only part that bugs me is the "predict" section. you have to predict the seeding score by yourself because it still does it in WLT format.
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Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
I love this program, our team has done something similar to this.
It tells you everything you really need to know and you don't need the extra stuff. Great job. |
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It needs updating anyway, because the regional list won't work with new or name-changed regionals. |
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I just ran the data for the 2010 New Jersey Regional and figured I would post the results: Code:
Seed Team # OPR SAA +/- |
Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
anyway that someone could post this info for the florida regional? :)
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I called it OPRNet because it was (inter)net-capable, rather than having the user manually create text files to parse. |
Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
I have a question about Oregon for 2010. I was trying to find out opr and pm for teams at OR this year. and it failed. any ideas?
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Pos Reg Team OPR SAA PM RPI |
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Also, I dont want/need a Linux version, the Windows version is great. Thanks Bongle! I have a dual boot machine and the Windows boot is what I use at competitions anyway to run Windriver, Excel and save my battery. Windows is the right choice since all of the KOP software is Windows. |
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Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
Did the OPR miss the mark for the Florida Regional? The alliance of 1251 + 1612 + 86 won the whole shebang with a combined OPR of 5.4 versus alliances with group OPRs of 9.9, 9.2, 7.1, 6.4, 5.6, 5.2, and 5.10. If OPR were a good predictor wouldn't the team of 1592 + 179 + 3164 be a virtual lock with a group OPR of 9.9? In the past OPR usually was a good indicator of the strongest alliance in the elimination rounds. In the Quarterfinals, the top three teams by group OPR were knocked off.
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You need to understand, OPR is just one tool to help you decide. I'll bet in qualifications, 1251, 1612 and 86 were not able to compete along side teams that would compliment their game strategies or abilities. Look at it as a perfect storm. When you bring three teams together that fully complimented each others abilities and were able to play as a single unit, their performance as an alliance would be way better than they were able to show individually during qualifications. This is why raw numbers is not always your best predictor. Observation and paying attention to all input is a scout's best approach. Leaning on one detail, like OPR, can be mis-leading. |
Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
Another reason OPR might be a poor elimination predictor is because the rules essentially change in eliminations.
In qualifying, it isn't really in anyone's interest for teams to play heavy-handed defense. In eliminations, defense is a key factor. So teams with a pneumatic-tire 8-motor, rocket-powered 8WD suddenly are much more useful, while teams with highly mobile feather-light (and light on grip, like mechanum/omni) robots suddenly find it much harder to score. A perfect example is 469: they have a low OPR (well... compared to their reputation) because they are only at maximum effectiveness when they're playing with highly effective robots that can get their ball loop going. In qualifying, that might not happen often. An ball-supplier bot is limited in offensive power by its home-zone teammate that is trying to get balls in the net. 469 is a defense-proof near-perfect ball supplier. When defense ramps up and solid ball-deliverers become available, suddenly 469 is an unstoppable force. |
Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
At the Oregon, New Jersey, and Pittsburgh regionals, the alliances with the best OPR were the winners. Over the years, it has been consistant that the OPR team score was a 90%ile indicator of sucess. Bongle makes a great point about the defense as the 1251+1612+86 alliance was the number 2 rated defense in the eliminations. I am curious about how many of the regional winning teams were predicted by OPR for weeks 1 & 2 in 2010. At a glance, Florida seems the exception.:confused:
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Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
Also, OPR cannot take into account teams that are playing the "seeding points game" by scoring goals for their opponents. There are several very high performing teams I know of that have abysmal OPRs for this reason - because 2 or 3 times a match they were scoring for the other alliance. That's a huge hit to your OPR, SAA and ultimately your PM.
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Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
I think you need to take a look at all four stats to determine who the best robot is on the field.
High OPR + Unusually High SAA + mediocre PM + Strong RPI = a really good robot High OPR + Low SAA + strong PM + Strong RPI = Good Robot thats how i look at the stats. |
Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
I have not used RPI in the past since it has such a narrow range of data like 0.16 to 0.40. Obviously higher is better as an indicator of strength of schedule and wins. However its relationship to OPR, DPR, & PM is not easy to compare since these valus are often 20 times larger
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Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
I noticed this weekend that this is the year of the prediction feature. Running it for KC, the self-check indicates it would have been 70% correct after only 39 matches, and consistently 80% correct after 48 matches. For Lunacy it does much worse. This seems to indicate that this game is much more predictable, and that good robots in one match will often do well in subsequent matches. Note that this is only for predicting the winner. So although it is better at predicting the winner of a match than last year, that's a less useful thing to do than it was last year.
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After 10 matches, OPR would not have been computable |
Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
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Man this code is awful.
Anyway, v12 (based on v7) is now ready. The prediction feature now has awareness of the new seeding system, though since it can't know penalties, the predicted seeding scores are too high. Even if I gave it an entire regional of match scores with no prediction, the rankings it would give out would still be incorrect because teams would not be getting as many points as they should. |
Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
Looks like you are missing the Ann Arbor District Event (WC is the abbreviation that FIRST uses) Last year it was the Lansing District.
-Clinton- |
Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
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I knew there was something else I had to update last night.
v13 - Now includes new-or-renamed-regionals for 2010. |
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(Im so used to v11 where teh stats came up in the CommandPrompt window lol) |
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has anyone done this for week 4? :)
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Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
After 4 weeks the following are the top 100 overall entries sorted by OPR:
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Net Rank OPR RANK Rank @ Regional REG Team OPR SAA Net RPI |
Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
awesome! 1592 top 100! just wondering, what is the Net Rank mean? To me it would factor multiple regionals and somehow be averaged together, however there are different Net Ranks for the same team.
also, i'm curious to see how many of these teams either are not going to championships or are currently on the wait list. unfortunately the Bionic Tigers, the last i heard, still are wait listed. |
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Edit: Nevermind, I just don't know what it is supposed to be. |
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net = opr-ssa |
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If you assume 1114 and 2056's poor SAA is because they were scoring for the opponents, it gets even more scary. Both are scoring over 11 points a match.
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Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
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I took my compiled database with entries from weeks 1 to 4 and created a pdf. My excel file was too big to upload.
The attached file includes all 1850 entries, sorted by OPR. |
Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
Hooray, looks like this sucker still works, 3 years later! Big thanks to FIRST for not updating their scoring formatting.
I'll see about updating the regional list to the 2011 version tonight. For those that don't want to read the whole thread, here is the latest version: http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/at...2&d=1269426199 |
Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
Bongle, what are the chances you could put this into a web app, hosted on a free server like google apps? That way we could get to it from our mobile devices, web browsers at work (many companies use proxies that prevent this .exe from working), and public computers that have paranoid IT infrastructure.
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This is probably a stupid question. :)
If we do >results.csv when we enter a query, where does this text document get saved? I can't seem to find it. Thanks! |
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Thanks! |
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Hope that helps! |
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For any Mac users out there I have updated my OPR program.
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Is it just me or does the predict function not work for the 2011 season?
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Is it just me, or is the Chesapeake regional data not working at all.
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0 836 39.88721. 365 (decline AC5 QF) 2. 836 (accept A1 F) 3. 340 (decline AC4 SF) 4. 1218 (accept A2 W) All the alliances that lost to an alliance that contained another of the 4. When there are no powerhouse alliances and heavy D, anything can happen :ahh: |
Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
Thank you Bryan. It was a pleasure working with you this weekend
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Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
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V14 - Now parses the "fat" style of regional results, a la www.frclinks.com/e/m/il
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arc FIRST Championship - Archimedes Division cur FIRST Championship - Curie Division gal FIRST Championship - Galileo Division new FIRST Championship - Newton Division ein FIRST Championship - Einstein Field |
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Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
Here are the regional codes that are missing from v14:
stx Alamo on2 Greater Toronto West dmn Lake Superior nc North Carolina wa2 Seattle Cascade tn Smoky Mountain ut Utah wor WPI wc Ann Arbor MI District ww Livonia MI District swm Niles MI District oc1 Waterford MI District arc FIRST Championship - Archimedes Division cur FIRST Championship - Curie Division gal FIRST Championship - Galileo Division new FIRST Championship - Newton Division ein FIRST Championship - Einstein Field An old executable I have (from 2009) also had the all option to calculate stats for all regionals. That was nice. |
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