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Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
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Some simulation data to come tonight; I have an idea for a quick and dirty Match Prediction method. <edit> Quick match prediction using the formula above for the DC Quarterfinals: Code:
blueScore = blueOPR - redDPR: |
Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
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I think the general consensus in the CD community agrees that OPR should be calculated with qualifying matches only. The extra matches by some teams who made it to elimination round will bias the results if they are used. Ed |
Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
Hey y'all...
Can anyone run the program for the NYC regional and post the results? I reformatted and haven't gotten a chance to install VMWare Fusion on my mac again. Thanks a bunch! Dandon |
Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
Here's the NYC results sorted by +/-
Code:
New York City |
Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
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Anyway, here are my results for the NY Regional: OPR: Code:
1 1155 32.277(and note that now this is how many points on average your presence on an alliance takes points away from the opponent - a negative number indicates you're likely to increase your opponent's score) Code:
1 1862 19.379(just occurred me to calculate that, haven't given it much thought but I don't think it indicates anything) Code:
1 694 58.169 |
Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
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Two equations: 1. (Xioblue + Xjoblue + Xkoblue) - (Xldred + Xmdred + Xndred) = Scoreblue 2. (Xlored + Xmored + Xnored) - (Xidblue + Xjdblue + Xkdblue) = Scorered Where ... ............X ..............io (Team i - OPR) ................blue (Alliance) and likewise, id would represent Team i - DPR. You would have to solve for both the OPR and DPR for each team. For the DC regional, which had 65 teams, it would be a 130x130 matrix * {x} = Bio or Bid, which would allow you to then solve for the separate OPR and DPR values. I don't have a good way to parse this, much less see if the results actually mean anything, but the concept came from a friend of mine - Kenneth Massey, who developed one of the BCS algorithms (www.masseyratings.com) so I think it has merit. For the DC regional, I did the following simple calculation to try and get a similar estimated value for how tough the match was: AVG[((TotalMatchPoints/TotalAlliancePoints)*TeamOffensivePoints) + (TeamOffensivePoints – TeamDefensivePoints)] MATCH_ID ALLIANCE_ID TEAM_ID OFF_POINTS DEF_POINTS .....1................1................1.......... ...20...............10 .....1................1................2.......... ...10...............10 .....1................1................3.......... ...15................5 .....1................2................4.......... ....0................10 .....1................2................5.......... ...10...............20 .....1................2................6.......... ...20...............20 Example: Total Match Points = SUM(OFF_POINTS), GROUP BY MATCH_ID Total Alliance Points = SUM(OFF_POINTS), GROUP BY MATCH_ID, ALLIANCE_ID Team 1 ((75/45)*20 + (20 – 10)) = 43.33 Team 2 16.66 Team 3 35 Team 4 ((75/30)*0 + (0 – 10)) = -10 Team 5 15 Team 6 50 Alliance 1 43.33 + 16.66 + 35 = 95 Alliance 2 (-10) + 15 + 50 = 55 Alliance 1/Alliance 2 = 1.72 – Alliance 1 72% stronger |
Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
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Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
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I'll try again to implement this new matrix tonight, and I'll plug it into my prediction code to see if it is any better than the more basic OPR/DPR stats. We need to come up with a name for this more-complex stat: how about OPR+ and DPR+? |
Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
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Steve |
Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
This is starting to get seriously cool guys...the Sabremetrician in me is very happy.
How about a VORR stat (Value over replacement robot)? DISS (Defense independent scoring statistics)? Pythagorean W-L expectations? Win shares? The possibilities are endless... |
Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
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Steve |
Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
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As for implementation of OPR+/DPR+, how I arranged my matrix was: Odd Rows (for row i): "Team i/2's total score is equal to the weighted sum of the team i/2's alliance OPRs minus the weighted sum of team i/2's opponents' DPRs"
Even Rows (for row i): "Team i's opponents' score is equal to the weighted sum of the opponents' alliance OPRs minus the weighted sum of team i's alliance's DPRs"
For verification, I'm pretty sure that the sum of the absolute values of each row should equal the number of matches that team played times 6. |
Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
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I would love to see how you finally implement this, since it is questionable that I will be able to put in my database between now and next weekend, especially since I am using a datawarehouse and a Business Intelligence tool to create the reports. The data interface is still lagging! The methodology you described is exactly what I was looking doing as well, and I believe it has merit! Good luck with getting it debugged! Good luck at your competitions! If anyone else is working on these concepts, and will be at the Chesapeake Regional next week, I would love to chat with you there! Steve |
Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
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Steve |
Re: Easy to use Offensive Power Rankings (OPR) program for mid-regional scouting
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