Chief Delphi - Predictions Week 4: One Giant Leap

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Re: Predictions Week 4: One Giant Leap

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Originally Posted by Looking Forward (Post 837947)

ST. LOUIS:
The finals here the past two years have featured 217 and 148 against 1444 and 45, each alliance taking it once. But in 2009, only 1444 returns here from that group. The event does have some high profile replacements though, and should feature some very exciting alliances and matches. It doesn't quite have the depth of some other events, and will be rather top heavy. If two of the top tier bots team up, it will be difficult to stop them. It's likely that only two or three alliances will have legitimate chances at winning the regional (barring technical failures).

The Bomb Squad didn't perform up to their desires in Chicago, getting bounced in the quarter-finals and never really emerging as a high-scoring machine. 16 wasn't satisfied with their result, and modified their scoring mechanism for a hiring rate of fire (and shorter range). They should see an improved result in Missouri, and should at least reach the semi-finals.

1208 has a simple power dumper, but with a large enough capacity to make it very dangerous. They were selected first in Kansas City and were one of the most explosive scoring machines at the event (and managed to score 141 in a qualification match). They have a chance at upsetting some of the bigger names in the eliminations if they have another scoring machine paired with them to help remove defensive pressure.

2775 is another impressive looking rookie team, with a basket on an elevator allowing them to use their roller intake to score. Their hopper is smaller than some of the other scoring machines at the event, which will place even more influence on their driving ability. If they avoid any DeWalt problems (figures that Team DeWalt is using them), they should do well, but they will likely be a clear margin behind the top teams.

SWAT went undefeated in the quals at KC, and led the #1 alliance to the Championship. 1806 is looking to win two regionals for the second year in a row, but this will the be the tougher than any event they've won so far. Their spiral loaded shooter has the potential to score well, but it doesn't have the ability to take over matches on its own. They can provide reliable scoring to compliment an explosive scorer, but it's unlikely they'll be able to earn another medal.

Week one last year, they were on the #1 alliance at the Midwest regional, and were beaten by the #8 alliance in the quarter-finals. Week one this year, they were on the #1 alliance at the Midwest regional, and were beaten by the #8 alliance in the quarter-finals. Week four last year, they came back even better and won the West Michigan regional. Week four this year...
Beatty's back. And Beatty wants to win. After the stunning upset in the QFs in Chicago, team 71 is going to be even better than they were in Chicago (note: they still have the highest OPR of any team in FIRST), which is a frightening thought. If you want to win this event, you're going to have to go through Team Hammond. They'll be playing in the final match of the regional, and their performance will decide on who wins.

Well, Bomb Squad's improved shooter got them through quals without a loss. As #1 seed, they picked Team Hammond. The #1 alliance got a scare in the semis when they lost their first match to the alliance led by Perpetual Chaos. In the end, the Team 16, 71 and 1706 combination had too much firepower to be denied the win. Two strong offensive robots seems to be the ticket this year.

Re: Predictions Week 4: One Giant Leap

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868 and 1018 were both finalist at Buckeye as the #2 alliance, and lost to 1747 in the finals. All three teams should be factors again at Purdue. 868's small capacity will hurt them when playing against some of the bigger dumpers, but if they drive well they may be an attractive partner to any team that wants to funnel a majority balls to one scoring machine (like 254, 148, and others have done). 1747 is one of two teams at this event who didn't lose at their previous event, and their shooter is likely to be the shooter at the event. While one or two of these teams should be in the semi-finals, it would be difficult for any to knock off 111, 234, or 45.

Re: Predictions Week 4: One Giant Leap

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Originally Posted by Looking Forward (Post 837947)

CHESAPEAKE:
Also known as DC/BAE/FLR/NJ part two, more than half the field competed at one of those four events in week 1 and 2. This regional has been dominated by New Jersey teams recently, with five of the past six winners coming for NJ (and none from Maryland). Like several other events this weekend, there is going to be a lot of parity towards the top, and most of the elimination teams will be pretty close in ability. A few teams look poised to try and distance themselves from the pack, and it is possible (under ideal conditions) for a powerhouse alliance to form, but very hard to guarantee.

After being picked, then "unpicked," in the BAE alliance selection fiasco, 467 wants redemption. The Duck Tape bandits can score quickly and efficiently, and it would take a major scouting breakdown for them to be left out of the eliminations again. It is unlikely they'll be able to take down any powerhouses though, and anything past the quarterfinals would be gravy.

Teams like 1511, 768, 1727, 339, 229, and 134 will make up much of "the pack" of scorers. Each should figure into the eliminations somehow, but none looks poised to lift an alliance on their shoulders and carry them into the finals. If the top tier teams are broken up, one of these teams could leave with gold.

2377 almost went undefeated in qualifications at DC, losing in the very last match of Saturday morning. They have skilled drivers, a tiny, yet incredibly accurate human player, and a knack for avoid being scored on. Yet, they'll have to dramatically increase their scoring speed if they want to be a major factor again in Annapolis.

The Robolions captained an alliance to the semi-finals in DC, and 2199 wants to get further this time. They have a great human player, and a robot that can score mid-sized payloads very quickly. If they can maintain a high level of play, they'll be one of the top three or four machines and could reach the finals.

Gompei slipped to the 4th selection in Beantown, but proved they were the real deal by winning. 190 has a crabbing, high-scoring, power dumping machine that should be a top tier team in Chesapeake. A semi-final appearance is all but guaranteed, and if they can get the kind of support scoring that 61 was able to provide, they could notch another banner to their resume.

40 couldn't top the Rhode Warriors and Buzz in the finals in New Hampshire, but their swerve-driven, dual-screw machine is a definite threat in Maryland. They're very hard to pin and score on, and has a large capacity, so they're very dangerous in any match. If they can drive smart and improve upon their weaknesses, they'll have the best odds at taking home gold.

Whoever predicted 1195 to win Chesapeake--here's your $100 billion! Who would have thought, based on their history, that New Age Chaos had a SHOT to win Chesapeake? But they remained one of the top teams throughout the entire weekend and held on.

Let's hope somebody gives 2199 and 40 spots in the Championship in the same division so they could hook up again! Those are two VERY dangerous together! Only 45 and 234, or 1114/148/217 last year.

Re: Predictions Week 4: One Giant Leap

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Originally Posted by TheOtherGuy (Post 838061)

Sweet! We weren't mentioned for the first time! :yikes: Maybe we'll do good!

I think that's the last time you aren't mentioned this year... Something about first seed and the regional win.

Re: Predictions Week 4: One Giant Leap

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Originally Posted by Sgraff_SRHS06 (Post 838842)

Let's hope somebody gives 2199 and 40 spots in the Championship in the same division so they could hook up again! Those are two VERY dangerous together! Only 45 and 234, or 1114/148/217 last year.

Sadly 2199 will not be attending Championships at this point in time, as we failed to qualify in our two regionals and did not pre-register.

edit: the team might discuss pursuing an open spot...

Re: Predictions Week 4: One Giant Leap

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Originally Posted by ShortBang (Post 838860)

Sadly 2199 will not be attending Championships at this point in time, as we failed to qualify in our two regionals and did not pre-register.

edit: the team might discuss pursuing an open spot...

Are there open spots?... I was unaware...

Re: Predictions Week 4: One Giant Leap

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Originally Posted by coldfusion1279 (Post 838872)

Are there open spots?... I was unaware...

Theyre probably arent, but it will be looked into on the off chance. The finals were so close, and we feel we would still be competitive at Championships

Re: Predictions Week 4: One Giant Leap

First off.. Thanks to the people who mentioned us on the first page (there was more than I thought there would be to be honest lol.)

Secondly, I would like to apoligize for promising a linkage 2.0 then never actually making one. I have found that this jump from being a student leader to a mentor has rendered my input on things almost useless (weird right?) due to the fact I don't have the titles some of the other mentors have....

Unfortnatly, it seems my thoughts of how thing were going were proven right, and we did not get any fire from the sparks we made last year... I tired my best to push the issue and hopefully some people on the team have seen things in the same light now that the regional is over. (thank you to team 2056 and 2609 for showing them this, indirectly...)

Hopefully, from defeat we will aquire victory next year, and hopefully everyone on the team ends up on the same page.. and we will be back, and I will have more to type about on dlephi lol (things were rough during build, and it was something that I did not wish to share with the rest of the community lol)

We will be back next year with things that are much much better!!! (promise number 2)

Re: Predictions Week 4: One Giant Leap

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Originally Posted by coldfusion1279 (Post 838872)

Are there open spots?... I was unaware...

There's a waiting list for Championship spots that aren't filled by remaining regional winners. Some winners at the events are already registered for the championship. Unfortunately, some qualifiers won't be able to attend.

As of this morning, there were 250 teams registered and about 90 spots remaining. Quite a few of today's winners already had a ticket to Atlanta. Probably a larger proportion of winners in Week 5 and 6 events will have already qualified.

Hopefully, you're on the waiting list...

Re: Predictions Week 4: One Giant Leap

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Originally Posted by Sgraff_SRHS06 (Post 838842)

Thanks for the compliment! The finals were certainly exciting! I agree, if teamed with a 'bot that could deliver empty cells and run a good pick it would be a pretty formidable alliance. Hopefully we'll be back next year with something just as good. My hat is off to the drive teams and PS's on both final alliances!

Re: Predictions Week 4: One Giant Leap

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Originally Posted by coldfusion1279 (Post 838872)

Are there open spots?... I was unaware...

There is a wait list for the CMP. No open spots.

Re: Predictions Week 4: One Giant Leap

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Originally Posted by Looking Forward (Post 837947)

BAYOU:
Bayou is small, with only 31 teams, and young (a median team number of 2080). Only a handful of teams will consistently be able to score more than 10 or 11 balls with their robot, and human players will be the most reliable scoring option for most alliances. The alliance that best utilizes the super cell may emerge victorious.

True in many cases.

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After a pair of finals appearances in 2007, 364 met a swift exit in the Bayou quarters last year at the hands of team 16. Team Fusion should fair better in a field without as much top level talent this year. They have a screw-loaded dropper, which should be reliable enough to score better than most at this event. Expect them to at least reach the semi-finals.

Fusion got bumped in the quarters, though I did notice them not moving in part of their last match. As that one went 54-60 against them, I suspect we'd have faced them in the semis if they were running the whole time.

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Team Combustion has a turreted shooter with front wheel steering that has a solid shot at winning a technical award at Bayou. But the high shooting angle, lower firing point, and lack of floor loading will hurt them on the playing field. 1912 will definitely earn an elimination spot, but they might not be playing past 2:00 PM on Saturday.

1912 didn't make the cut--they seemed to have some gremlins with their shooter (including scoring into their own trailer for some early parts of the match). I'd be interested to see what they could do with another event, but it looks like Bayou was it for them.

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Despite Stephen Curry tearing apart the Gamecock's defense in the NIT tournament last night, this USC sponsored team hasn't lost heart. 2815 has one of the most impressive looking rookie machines out there this year, and looks to do very well in a shallow field at Bayou. If driven well, their power dumper will be very effective and one of the highest scoring machines at the event. They have a solid shot at earning a medal in their very first event.

Ah, if only. We had some rough luck in qualifying with no-shows (both times resulting in losses), but 499 picked us up from our #8 seed (hey, would YOU want to play 624 and 1477 in the first round?) and we had a decent run. Call it fuel for Palmetto.

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624 will likely be the most effective shooter at the event, with a polycord loaded, turreted shooter. If they play smart, they have a chance at doing very well, and should at least reach the semi-finals. If they have another scoring machine and use their super cells effectively, they could go even further, and potentially grab gold.

They got another scoring machine in 1477 and a solid empty cell runner in 2173. While the former wasn't as potent as CRyptonite themselves in our estimation, they were still
plenty potent in Bayou with a good feed rate into their turreted shooter. Both 624 and 1477 are headed to Lone Star next, according to FIRST's site, while 2173 was done at Bayou. I hope all of them are shaking out their couch cushions for money to get to Atlanta.

Re: Predictions Week 4: One Giant Leap

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Originally Posted by Looking Forward (Post 837947)

WATERLOO:
The top ranked alliances are likely going to have next-to-dead robots at their third partners, and very few teams will be reliable scoring machines. Brace for impact, Lunacy is going to come crashing down to the surface here. This event will be painful to watch.

Running the OPRs, about 2/3rds of the field had OPRs above 15, I don't know if any other regional achieved a ratio like that. And the top OPR performers were on par with the more competitive regionals so far this year. Teams scored here... and they did it pretty well!

Surprised? VERY... but that's what Waterloo is all about - things happen here that you never expect.

It was also one of the most popular webcasts this weekend. Even with the small number of teams attending, they had to open up overflow seating again on Saturday afternoon, and I saw more spectators (people who weren't involved with a competing team) in attendance than I've ever seen before.

From an entertainment standpoint, you've got to call Waterloo a resounding success - it always is despite what the numbers say coming in. We can thank Paul and Karthik for a lot of that!

(P.S. Hope you guys didn't have too much trouble finding your popcorn...)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Looking Forward (Post 837947)

There is little doubt who's the favorite headed into Waterloo. 2056 has won all four regionals, including twice in Waterloo, in their history... but they've also been paired with 1114 all four times. Without 1114 in attendance, the Patriotics will have a chance to win without the Simbots for the first time. However, the serpentine could hammer them if they excel in qualifications, and they are likely to be targets of heavy defense by the other teams. Luckily for them, human player scoring and one big dump from their belt driven dumper is likely all they'll need to win many matches (even in the elims).

Bang on. OP Patriotics were the class of the field - A razor-sharp ultra-efficient turbo vomiter whose autonomous mode will make your jaw drop. They were the best team here, and when things go right, the best team at a regional should win it.

Things went right at Waterloo.

2056 could easily be the best team in Canada right now, but it'd be prudent for all of us to hold judgment for a week. There are a lot of teams hoping to claim that title at GTR.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Looking Forward (Post 837947)

2609 started slowly, but improved in Rochester, but still failed to make the eliminations. If they have worked out all the kinks they'll likely be one of few effective scoring machines. Yet, without ground loading, it's unlikely they'll be able to control matches on their own.

The kink they worked out was adding an extremely efficient empty-cell delivery module. Actually, they added two of them! Empty-cell purists will appreciate how this new option transformed a robot from missing eliminations at FLR to the #1 ranked robot at Waterloo. Nevermind the +17 boost in OPR, and -12 SAA it provided.

Rumour has it, there are even more small but significant changes in the works for Atlanta. Don't let the lack of ground loading fool you...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Looking Forward (Post 837947)

2166 has made the Championship eliminations each of the past two years, a feat that only 40 teams can claim (and that list doesn't include 16, 190, 234, 173, 503, or 65). They have a power dumper, somewhat similar to what 973 won with in Long Beach, and should be one of the few machines capable of scoring effectively and regularly. They should be one of the first few bots off the board come alliance selection.

And they were... selected as first pick by the #2 alliance. Strong bot from top to bottom, as expected from this exceptional team. This well-rounded robot can score moonrocks off the ground, as well as throw in a few empty-cell deliveries here and there.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Looking Forward (Post 837947)

In a field where human players are going to score most of the points and super cells will be worth a very large portion of match scores, a bot capable of holding a ton of balls and delivering them to the payload specialists might not be a bad choice. 2200 is just that, and could be effective when paired with quality human players.

2200 showed why more matches in FIRST are won and lost before you cut your first piece of metal. Their empty-cell strategy was exceptionally-executed every match, and was a wonder to watch. However, they dropped far lower in the draft than their performance merited. I think this has a lot to do with the belief that an alliance's first pick needs to provide robot moonrock scoring support, which 2200 could not do. Regardless of this, I can honestly say I'd love to have this bot on my alliance.

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Originally Posted by Looking Forward (Post 837947)

While they wont blow anyone away, 1310's simple scoring mechanism might be exactly what's required to do well in this field. 1310 has a single conveyor feeding up to a launcher. 781 is in a similar boat, with a rear mounted shooter/dumper fed by a conveyor, though theirs is wider and has a larger capacity. If either score regularly, advancing to the finals is certainly not out of reach.

1310 and 781 were both solid scoring bots that will make an impact at GTR this week, with 781 scoring consistently enough to reach the finals. 1310 was a threat all weekend, and was one of the only robots capable of scoring on an opponent from odd angles, and imperfect pins/setups.

The only "missed" call I think Looking Forward made was probably one not a lot of outsiders would've seen:

2505 produced the next best OPR after 2056, and ranked 3rd after 2609 and 2056. If it wasn't for some drivetrain and dumper exit-flap problems in the semis, their alliance's fate could've been very different. Insiders know that this is a team with students that won a VEX tournament earlier this year, and is mentored by 2009 Waterloo WFFA Tristan Lall, Jeffrey Li (JFlex188 on CD) and Adam McLeod - all three former graduates of 188.

Re: Predictions Week 4: One Giant Leap

"The twins, 384 and 1086 have two of the more vibrant bots at the event (especially 1086 in their retina scorching yellow), but their primary scoring mechanism might not be the most effective. Expect them to attempt to upgrade, and if they don't, to be most effective in "puke mode." They will likely be in the eliminations, but don't expect to see either in the finals."

As the human player and fellow member of 384 i feel that your last sentence was possibly the funniest line of all. . . at the VCU/NASA regional this weekend both 384 and 1086 made it to the finals with their effective robots. 1086 ended up winning and congratulations to their hardwork they are going to Atlanta. But 384 is very proud of their hardwork and sponsors and alliance partner (1086) for their help and the "twins" will do it again next year. GO SPARKY

Re: Predictions Week 4: One Giant Leap

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The Bionic Bulldogs have not had the same level of play since Glenn Thoroughman left. Kingman will try to return to the spotlight in Lunacy, but 60 will need some help if they want another championship. They aren't the type of team that can dominate games anymore.

I do not believe this is totally true, as this is my rookie year. We have been doing pretty well, with a very good driver and a pretty efficient robot. I am not suprised at our mention, but I hope this year will prove successful.

-Joanna