Chief Delphi - Predictions Week 5: Full Moon

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Re: Predictions Week 5: Full Moon

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Originally Posted by Looking Forward (Post 841102)

MICHIGAN - WEST MICHIGAN:
Though it won't kill you, teams should be afraid of this "WMD" (West Michigan District). Much like previous WMR, there are a number of high level teams very capable of earning gold, but it will be tough to do it alone. With fewer teams and no out of state teams, it's not at the same level as those events though, which should open some doors for "middle-class" teams trying to prove themselves. There should be a lot of action both in qualifications and elims, and strategy will likely play as much of a role as the robots in crowning a champion.

Though a similar performance to their previous event would like earn them a ticket to the State Finals, the Wo-bots are not in a comfortable position. 141 is coming off an out-of-state event where they really struggled (2-9, QFs) and will need to up their game if they want to be playing again next week. And they will likely do so, but a trip to the finals seems very unrealistic.

The Killer Bees were an early selection in Kettering, but they were eliminated in the QFs. 33 is looking to improve, and has been watching the teams that do well very closely. Expect some serious modifications to their scoring mechanism and strategy, and for the Bees to fly higher here than a few weeks ago. 33 will bee playing during the last match on Saturday.

85, 107, 862, 904, and 1918 will all factor into this event heavily. Two or three of these teams will likely be alliance captain, and one or two could reach the finals. All of them except 107 are sitting comfortably in spots for Ypsi next weekend (1918 is 5th, but has already played twice). 107 still has work left to do, but it won't take much for them to punch their ticket (only a handful of wins and an elimination appearance would be more than enough), but they'll want more.

The Frog Force were selected high in Cass Tech, but couldn't seal the deal during crunch time, losing in the Semis. 503 always improves as the season advances. Unless their improvement was dramatic, they'll be clearly behind the top few teams, but if they find themselves a high captain they could earn a spot to play for gold.

So how did the 'under-dawgs' do? I am very proud of my team and allys [216,1918, and 1254]. You did amazing! Same with BOB, Frog Force, the Bees, Wo-bot, the Desperate Penguins, Code Red, and many others too! I just am amazed that 216 went from the bottom of the heap at Traverse City, to being the WM champs!!! We really couldn't have done it without our allys! Thanks guys, and I hope to see you all at state!

Re: Predictions Week 5: Full Moon

Quote:

Originally Posted by Looking Forward (Post 841102)

PALMETTO:
With 75% of the teams rookie years in 2006 or before, Clemson is hosting a fairly veteran event that will have a fair share of solid teams. While a number of these teams, even the veterans, aren't going to turn many heads (and some of them are going to be fairly easy pickings for good scoring machines), once the eliminations start it has the potential to be a quality tournament. There will likely be a group of teams that stands out, but no clear favorite among them. At least three alliance will have very legitimate chances at being crowned champion.

True. In my estimation, at least five were legitimate contenders.

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Not satisfied with a quarter-final upset in Georgia, 1771 is back for more. Their quick-firing shooter is lethal at close range, and will be one of the best scoring machines at the event. 1771 will have the option of being on one of the top two alliances, and if they and their partners remain fully functional, will have a great chance at going deep.

True. 1771 is a beast. I enjoyed playing with them on 1618, and I wholeheartedly rooted for the other alliance when they were in the semis on the other side of the bracket from 2815.

1319 has quietly won a regional in each of the past three seasons, as well as the Galileo Division in 2007. The Golden Flash has yet to punch their ticket to Atlanta this season, being eliminated in the QF at Buckeye and the finals in Peachtree. They have a very effective power dumper, and look poised to be a top three selection and have some of the best odds at earning a banner.[/quote]It wasn't to be--they went down in the semis in three to the 1771/2415/21 alliance. That said, Dusty is a heck of a machine; it's a shame they won't be going to Atlanta.

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They're not as flashy as some other bots, which is likely part of the reason they manage to fall to the 9th selection in Florida, but 425 can score. The Spartans will likely be picked earlier than they were in Florida, sometime in the middle portion of the first round (4-7th pick), but anything past the semi-finals is unlikely.

They got with Flash and suffered the same fate--semis in three. They were the human-load dumper that 1618 wasn't, and also a good group of people.

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They've been to the regional finals six times in their history, including two weeks ago in Georgia, but have only managed to secure on victory (two years ago at this regional). The Burning Magnetos want to hang another banner, and will be capable of doing it in the right situation. If the the top few bots are evenly dispersed among thee or four alliances, and 342 can secure another solid scoring machine, they should reach the finals. It will be difficult for them to overcome a pairing of dominant scoring machines though.

Without a doubt, this team has the longest history of success of all South Carolina teams and teams at this event. Nobody here even comes close to the six regional titles, Curie Championship (2003), three regional finalist awards, Curie finalist award (2002), and Championship finalist (2003) award that Metal-in-Motion have. 343 will have stiff competition here though, and they haven't won regionals in back-to-back years since 2001 and 2002 (they won in Georgia last year). Another semi-final appearance is very likely, but it will be tough to advance past that.

Both the Magnetos and MiM went down in the quarters, which surprises me in hindsight (though not at the time, as I was busy running around the arena doing other things). Add 342 to the list of folks who really ought to be in Atlanta but aren't (343 has already registered). (Also, for those who like to split hairs, 342 had hung three banners by the time they won Palmetto in 2007; they won Chairman's in 2004 and 2005 at Palmetto, and in 2002 at KSC.)

Re: Predictions Week 5: Full Moon

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Originally Posted by Billfred (Post 842230)

it was a shock to us too... b/c we thought that we were hands down the better alliance. we just got part of the crap field problems that went down during the elims... two of the three matches were 3v2. it was very frustrating:mad:

Re: Predictions Week 5: Full Moon

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Originally Posted by cziggy343 (Post 842242)

The better allaince is what advanced ... hands down. It was only 3v2 during one match in the elims due to supposed field problems. The other match 342 was moving and then stoppped that was not a field issue. We had three great scoring robots and a solid strategy, that almost took the regional winners down as well, however it just didn't happen for us this year. Thanks to 425 for picking us and realizing our potential.

Re: Predictions Week 5: Full Moon

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Originally Posted by Lil' Lavery (Post 842314)

Part of the game is survival. Field connection issues are often the fault of the robot, not the field.

I had the pleasure of being on the radio with the FTA crew in Seattle. Frank, Nolan and James killed themselves to keep robots working on the field. I don't know if teams know how much detail about the robots shows up on the FTA computer. Some random comments I heard on the radio (paraphrased);

Team X has low main battery, tell them to swap it (this when the robots were all staged and the match was held up to allow the battery swap)

Team X has an Ethernet link problem on their cRIO (the FTAs must have either plugged in or replaced ethernet cables on 6-8 robots)

Their battery card isn't seated correctly (much sticking of hands inside robots to fiddle with the cRIO)

Their firmware is out of date (even after inspection, some teams somehow ended up with old firmware -- I don't know how this happened, but the FTAs called the college-student SWAT team to walk the robot back after a match and fix it)

Most of the time, matches were delayed due to team problems. On Thursday, we had some radio issues at the driver stations, but the spares were ready and rarely took more than five minutes to fix.

I have no idea if the field software itself is good or bad, but we had the world's hardest-working FTAs, and our event finished on time both competition days. I don't think I can remember more than a half-dozen robots going dead during matches -- and those still could have been robot and not field problems. Compared to previous years, I couldn't see any more than the usual amount of unexplained robot problems and there was no more team complaining than past years, either.

I know not every regional went as smoothly as Seattle, but perhaps it points out that the field system is not inherently flawed, but instead is a complex system in its infancy. I'm just glad I didn't work at a lynching regional.

Re: Predictions Week 5: Full Moon

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Originally Posted by cziggy343 (Post 842306)

raw score match one: red: 68 blue: 64 3v2 for half of the match (real final was 48 54)

match two when both teams were full strength the whole match: red: 93 blue: 64

nuff said.

I'm not sure what you mean by "real final" when you speak about the 1st match. And as far as the second match goes unfortunatley one of our alliance human players missed both super cell shots that would have changed the match score to (93 to 94) in our favor. I thought the matches were close and I thought they were going to be going into them. I never thought one alliance had anything won before the match was played and elims can go in anyone's favor. It is kind of disconcerning to hear that your alliance counted us out before you played us (Even knowing the fact that us and 425 had the highest score of the regional togther during Qs I'm not sure if it was ever beaten). I thought the three teams on our alliance all had solid robots and a real chance to win the whole regional. This year we did not win a regional and will not be going to the championships because of it. However I am proud of our team for keeping thier heads held high and spirits up. We are a very blessed team and have been somewhat spoiled by our success in the past three years, and we cannot wait for next year, we have already begun our plans. Good luck to all teams at the Champs.

Re: Predictions Week 5: Full Moon

Quote:

Originally Posted by cziggy343 (Post 842242)

Happens to everyone though...

Re: Predictions Week 5: Full Moon

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Originally Posted by Looking Forward (Post 841102)

Bobcat Robotics are fresh off their third trip to Einstein in the past three years, and have a design that looks hauntingly like 148. We'll see if JVN shared notes on how to score through the defense with Carnevale, because if 177 can play anything like the Robowranglers when left alone, they'll attract the defense.

An interesting note...
Teams 148 and 177 do not communicate during the build season. While 148 happily talks and brainstorms with several teams, 177 is not one of them. These robot designs were created totally independently. If there are any conclusions to draw from this it is that maybe Clarkson University turned out 2 or 3 designers who think alike. ;)

As far as comparing notes on playing through defense, maybe 177 should be the ones sharing with us. It sounds like the Bobcats have one heck of a machine. Since their competition execution has always been world class, I can't wait to see how things play out for them in Atlanta.

Though, I am getting a little sick of seeing my college roomie on Einstein... it is hard to keep up!

-John

Re: Predictions Week 5: Full Moon

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Originally Posted by EricH (Post 842096)

Not asked to the top few, they were on #5 and had the misfortune of facing off against 330 in the quarterfinals. Two losses later, they were bound for home.

I don't think it's fair to say that we were eliminated merely because we faced 330 in the quarters.

In Quarterfinal 1, we lost by a mere two points with a dead partner who's trailer was filled with 20 balls from a patient human player.

Now, I truly think 330 has both a better robot and better alliance (and was pulling for them to take it all), but anyone is beatable,

I love 330, and can't believe that the best all around pick in my opinion will not be at champs. 330 played DEFENSE like none other, their psuedo crab was even more odd and effective than a full crab, and they had the 330 experience to drive it one better. Most teams aren't even capable of playing suck defense; they could pin you in the spot between the bot and trailer, while strafing into you, while scoring on your trailer, and ending with you pinned against a wall. We had 5 losses at Vegas, one was due to radio power coming out in auton, the other 4 were due to 330 (well.... I'm still disgruntled about one of those losees).

Re: Predictions Week 5: Full Moon

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Originally Posted by AdamHeard (Post 842554)

I forgot about that one. I thought after that that it would be a three-matcher... Way to avoid having that entire side of the bracket be three-matchers!

Re: Predictions Week 5: Full Moon

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Originally Posted by Looking Forward (Post 841102)

The Kuh-nig-its don't like to pronounce Knight properly, but they are more than capable of scoring a lot. 1939 captained the #2 alliance to the semi-finals in Kansas City, and has a solid chance at being alliance captain again in Denver. Tim the Enchanter will be one of the better scoring bots, but it likely won't have enough firepower to keep up with the top level teams.

Hey we may not have won in Denver, but we finally got mentioned in Looking Forward's prediction! I count the season a success.:D